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India Rules Over the World by 2030

www.observerdawn.comCover Story

The Republic of India Rules Over the World

By 2032

India is in a period of unprecedented opportunity, challenge and ambition in its development. Already the world’s third largest economy in purchasing parity terms, India aspires to better the lives of all its citizens and become the largest economy of the world by 2032, well before the centenary of its independence.

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Aware that the growing deployment of Gross

Domestic Product (GDP) has set in motion a global Economy transformation with significant implications for GDP. Rakesh Purohit, the Director-General of the Hot Marketing & Research Agency (HMRA), with the support of the Observer Dawn Team, convened the Global GDP ranking. The HMRA comprises a diverse group of distinguished leaders from the worlds of economics, trade, politics, manufacturing, farming and development. This is an independent body with members serving in their different capacities. The report analyzes the GDP implications of the global economic transformation. It is the culmination of months’ deliberations by the HMRA, involving many meetings held

in Delhi. All meetings were convened in consultations with business leaders, academics and policy thinkers. It is informed by many background papers drafted by experts in the fields of GDP. Hot Marketing & Research Agency (HMRA) takes full and independent responsibility for this Report, which reflects the consensus of its members. Neither the Observer Dawn nor any person acting on behalf of the Hot Marketing and Research Agency is responsible for the use which might be made of the given information. The views expressed in this publication are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Observer Dawn.

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SURVEY TEAM

Rakesh Purohit Hariom Tyagi Sonu Goel

Sonali Dutta

Karan Mutneja

Yogesh Sood

Pravin K Mishra

Mithilesh K. Singh

Swapnil Srivastav

Kuldeep Tyagi

Praveen Singh

Ravindra Kirti

Mithlesh Yadav

Ishaat Zaidi

M. Akansha

Ankit Mishra

Ridhi RawalJatin Arora

Vishal

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India's Future Economic Prospects Opportunities and Challenges

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India is in a period of unprecedented opportunity, challenge and ambition in its development. Already the world’s third largest economy in purchasing parity terms, India aspires to better the lives of all its citizens and become the largest economy of the world by 2032, well before the centenary of its independence. The long-term GDP growth has become more stable, diversified, and resilient. Over the next few years, India is expected to grow at well over 7 to 8 percent per year, with progress being buttressed by dynamic reforms in the macroeconomic, fiscal, tax and business environments. Here is one question what everyone must relate with the economic growth or becoming the biggest economy, will it eliminate poverty, does it mean strongest country (defense power), improved education system, less unemployment, and heavy industrialization. The answer to every question is NO. It doesn’t necessarily improve individual lifestyle, employment opportunities or any other development parameter when we draw any conclusion in the Indian context. Let’s first understand the meaning of being the largest economy. It is ranked by minimal GDP. According to the Wikipedia, thr

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a monetary measure of the market value of all the final goods and services produced in a period, often annually, GDP (nominal). India’s biggest challenge is its population and the way it's growing, this will continue to put it behind, when we calculate Per Capita Income with GDP growth. China and India are emerging together and a global competitor in the race of being the world’s largest economy. It is noticed that India and China are developing countries, means both of them are not a developed country. Interestingly, the Indian population is growing much faster than China. It will keep India at a similar level of present-day no matter if we are the largest economy or not in the top ten. It is impossible to left out India from the list of top ten or top five economies in the world. Indeed, India has a vast population and a large workforce, which is bound to put India in the top list, but will it make the country a developed economy? Everyone left with doubts. The year 2032 is the targeted period when we can see India as the largest economy, although we will surpass China in population chart much before that and top rank will not be justified with the standard of living of people in India.

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If Indian wants the standard of living should match with the size of the economy, then ideally they should become the world’s number one economy in the year 2032, leaving behind the USA, China and other countries. Japan, UK and Germany are still ahead of India and these are developed countries. And there is no price for guessing why it is … they have a small population in comparison to India. Here we are trying to estimate how India can become a developed country as well as the largest economy. For that, it needs to understand parameters that can accelerate or speed of economy. The answer is simple, more production, competitive pricing, increase export, competing the domestic market, creating new markets for Indian goods, etc. but only focusing on speedy factors will not be sufficient. Here I want to bring topics of major concern those are speed breakers and cause regular setbacks to us. First is terrorism. This is the biggest challenge for the Indian economy and if India does not control it, the country will never be able to gain economic

dominance globally. Look at the other economies how they are affected by terrorism, this is not the complete list, we are taking account of significant economies of the world to understand this issue.

TERRORIST INCIDENTS BY COUNTRY IN 2017

Country

Number of

Incidents

Deaths

Injuries

India

966

465

702

United Kingdom

122

42

301

United States

65

95

932

France

41

7

28

Germany

27

1

10

China

6

16

76

Global 10,900 26,445 24,927

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Other than terrorism, we also saw US, UK, France are also involved with different global conflicts, to protect the business interest and effort to bring stability in the reason where these countries have a business and strategic interests. India is not involved directly in such conflicts but it is continuously engaged in a hidden war with Pakistan. In the other hand, China is not the part of any significant conflict and from a long time continuously focusing on growing there economy. We will see its effect on all major economies in the future. We are moving step by step how international biggies will play in the time to come and what kind of compulsion they will face to keep them alive and winning in a trade war. As we have seen that China is not engaged directly into any conflict or fighting wars internationally, it is not vulnerable for terrorist activities, like India and the USA their economy is likely to grow with the same speed in recent times, we also forecast India to overtake United kingdom in global ranking in the year 2019.

S. No.

Country

2019

1

United States

20,374,042.11

2

China

13,358,979.26

3

Japan

5,039,335.34

4

Germany

3,841,332.34

5

India

2,870,097.68

6

United Kingdom

2,728,556.69

7

France

2,689,654.78

8

Brazil

2,161,672.88

9

Italy

2,003,178.11

10

Canada

1,728,408.95

Brazil, one of the essential members of BRICS will struggle to improve their economy faster than other players and India is expected to jump one more step closing to the Japanese economy. Germany is not going to get many shares in different trade blocks and will depend on their business within Europe only.

S. No.

Country

2024

1

United States

22,880,565.41

2

China

17,893,190.58

3

Japan

5,278,056.27

4

India

4,904,792.85

5

Germany

4,231,916.90

6

United Kingdom

2,930,109.16

7

France

2,925,543.15

8

Brazil

2,485,788.30

9

Italy

2,106,986.71

10

Canada

1,909,762.84

The Chinese economy will start facing hurdles. Moreover, it will drop its pace. Role of China will increase but due to its policy of not involving into international affair will affect its capacity to protect there market share. Keeping your country safe will not be sufficient. China doesn’t have a habit of direct involvement in different economic blocks like the US will get strong hit back in African and East European markets. We all know China heavily depends on its future business through CPEC and that will give him advantages (cheap transportation) into this region. We expect China will also suffer in the American business block and if the country start acting like the US, which often gets involved into any international conflict directly to save its business interest,

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they will need to move a huge resource which is not possible for their economy which is highly dependent of goods export mainly of direct consumer uses. Long time due to the initiative; India will start new phase after suffering strong opposition in domestic front which is causing a big problem of land acquisition and will have to change policy for incentivizing only new ventures or 100% EOU (Export Oriented Units). India will be forced to incentivize all those businesses which can generate direct employment. Moreover, in this period, we believe that the results will start coming immediately. India is going to surpass Japan and we will see South Korean economy entering into top 10 club.

S. No.

Country

2025

1

United States

23,452,579.55

2 China 18,787,850.103 India 5,557,130.294 Japan 5,346,671.005 Germany 4,308,091.406 France 2,975,277.387 United Kingdom 2,965,270.478 Brazil 2,577,762.479 Italy 2,123,842.6010 Korea, South 1,946,319.31

Americans will recover fast in the domestic market after losing to China for a long time. We expect innovation is coming in consumer goods which are not happening from the 1990s. American companies showed a lazy pace for innovations in consumer products these days as they were more focusing on fighting out

the international market by influencing them through various modes. It didn’t work in their way, and China took advantage of copying outside technology and producing cheaper products. We believe as many patents are now crossing the limit of protection, which was exploited by the countries like China to defeat US companies. New technology and new patents of the product will bring the US back into business and push China back. India having huge technically qualified and cheap labor force is going to be natural allies for the US and this will benefit our economy by this action

S. No. Country 2030

1 United States 25,692,822.912 China 23,189,353.883 India 21,248,444.404 Japan 5,752,143.015 Germany 4,750,120.616 France 3,240,351.197 United Kingdom 3,186,996.808 Brazil 3,057,533.589 Korea, South 2,225,982.2010 Italy 2,212,528.88

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China will slip down to the third position. This may lead to many

challenges to China including domestic issues. It’s likely that

China may face a similar position of USSR after regular economic

setback. Great news for India to move another

step forward.

S. No.

Country

2031

1

United States

26,129,600.90

2

India

24,095,735.95

3

China

24,070,549.32

4

Japan

5,840,766.28

5

Germany

4,847,056.32

6

France

3,297,112.42

7

United Kingdom

3,236,098.86

8

Brazil

3,162,734.14

9

Korea, South

2,287,234.55

10

Italy

2,231,372.99

India will become the global powerhouse of trade leaving the US behind by 0.5 trillion. However, at the same time, the US economy will also shift its gears. Here, we will see an increasing gap between China and the top 2 rivals. In the time to come, Indonesia will join the Club of top 10 economies whereas, Italy will move down, the Japan and Germany will be fighting together for 4 and 5 places respectively.

S. No.

Country

2032

1

India

27,228,181.62

2

United States

26,626,063.32

3

China

25,057,441.85

4

Japan

5,931,006.12

5

Germany

4,946,178.62

6

France

3,355,009.71

7

United Kingdom

3,286,096.59

8

Brazil

3,271,690.33

9

Indonesia

2,364,033.25

10

Korea, South

2,350,270.74

World Outlook about India

The World Bank has forecast that India will continue to remain the fastest growing economy in the world in 2018-19. In a report that was released in January-2019, the World Bank said India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would grow at 7.3 percent during the ongoing financial year. In comparison, China is expected to register a much lower growth rate of 6.3 percent in 2018-19. These predictions have been made in a report prepared by the World Bank titled: 'Global Economic Prospects: Darkening Skies'. The report says that most world economies stare at dark times in this financial year. However, it has projected a brighter picture for India and the South Asian region as a whole. In India, the recent introduction of GST and steps toward demonetization are expected to encourage a shift from the informal to the formal sector. According to the World Bank, India's GDP will grow at 7.3 percent in 2018-19. This will further climb up to 7.5 percent in the next two financial years. The World Bank reasons that this is a result of increased consumption and investment. Besides, it says that the economy is regaining after a temporary slowdown due to demonetization and the implementation of GST. In comparison with India, China's economic growth is projected to slow down to 6.2 in 2019 and 2020 and 6 percent in 2021. In 2018- 19, China's GDP was expected to grow at 6.5 percent. There is another report according to IMF’s survey and that is quite emphasizing the current situation as well as the upcoming position of Indian in the Economic state. Hot Marketing and Research Agency (HMRA) survey is more likely the current economic scenario of India. The HMRA survey clearly shows, India will be the biggest economy by 2032. India’s economy has all elements which would make it the world’s robust economy. Undoubtedly, India would rule over the globe. nnn

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IT & ITES Will Play A Vital Role In Making India Largest Economy

The Status of India in various sectors has become a

matter of routine discussion of its superpower capabilities and such regular discussions can be positive for every Indian. There are many Pillars behind this debate, in which the young population of India, which is growing at a fast pace, strong presence with innovative solutions in the service sector can be counted prominently. At the same time, the growth rate of the other developed countries are saturating while Indian GDP is increasing in pace. There is no ifs and buts about India’s development and we are getting developed in all dimensions and India especially achieving rapid growth in the field of IT. Let’s have a close look at this sector. Before talking about the IT Sector, we must know the strength of this sector. The whole world already accepted our power in IT. It’s the time to know our strength and feel that where we are in the field of Information Technology? According to a report of India Brand Equity Foundation (IBEF), India's IT sector has contributed about 7.7 percent of the country's GDP. The IT industry employs approximately 3.97 million people. It has also been said in this report that more than 250,000 new jobs can be added to this sector in the financial year 18 and 2019. We have multifold expectations of this sector. Interestingly India is in the race of superpower and it is important to know what amount IT sector is

going to contribute to making India a superpower. We should also understand that how fast IT Sector will grow in the coming decade. There is already a huge demand for IT services, worldwide, has been quite high. According to one figure, at the global level, the information technology market had reached USD 3.65 trillion in 2018 and continuous growth continues. In the same context, if we are talking about the local scenario, then the demand for IT services at the local level is increasing rapidly. Today every person has become a member of 'Global Village,' and the foundation of this 'global village' concept rests on IT services. Largest companies are now moving to Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities in countries like India. After Metro cities, expansion in small cities can be a big game for every IT Company. An industrial report has revealed that 18 new cities with huge foreign investment in India have become big business centers. All these things are possible due to IT services and software for obtaining international standard and efficiency at the local level. This way, the web services to small software use and big software like ERP systems use are increasing rapidly. The story is really interesting in 'IT- Growth and it is about the opportunities coming in the various new sectors. Demand is moving at a very fast pace in many traditional areas, such as manufacturing, local retail network,

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education, and other such categories. Previously in these sectors, IT and IT services were not used prominently, but the scenario has been changed. In the coming days, many such sectors are close to information technology and obviously, the demand will increase and this demand will strengthen those steps of India with confidence, which are moving towards superpower. Here we are analyzing the global positioning of Indian IT Sector as well as Indian origin people serving in this industry. Mr. Sunder Pichai (CEO, Google LLC), Satya Nadella (CEO, Microsoft Inc.), Shantanu Narayana (CEO, Adobe), Francisco D'Souza (CEO, Cognizant) are among the few names who are a vital person in Global Companies. It made clear that Indian talents have the highest grade in the globe. Even China's leading publication house Global Times has revealed in an article that Chinese professionals are far behind in carrying out major responsibilities in IT companies.

we consider this growth rate as a parameter then by 2032, the largest part of digital spending will come into the pockets of Indian companies and professionals. Further, we can assume that India's IT industry is focusing on emerging digital opportunities, which is going to be a significant segment in the next few years. At present, this sector is the fastest growing sector, which is growing at more than 30 percent. Indeed, behind this global positioning, we can give credit to our innovative, global norms and regular research! India has become the world's digital hub.

• More than 8,100 Indian companies are providing digital solutions.

• A fine digital talent pool exists between 450,000 and 500,000, a vast pool.

• Seventy-five percent of global digital talent in India. We are not only active on the scale of global footprint but also

It is a matter of pride for Indians! If we talk about the world's top IT companies, the Indian origin companies have their prominent position. Talking about the world's largest IT companies, India's influence can be seen everywhere. TCS (Tata Consultancy Services) and Infosys are among the top 10 companies in the world. Besides TCS, other Indian companies are supplying their services in a better format and it tends to confirm that our standard is truly global and there is very few organization left to compete with us. In the coming days, our position would be much better. If we have a look at the figures, global digital spending was UAD 180 billion in 2017, and it would be USD 310 billion by 2020. If

successful in competitively presenting ourselves. You should not be surprised to know that Indian companies can provide cheap solutions, which is 5 to 6 times more inexpensive compared to the US IT Companies. This is a factor which has done the job of bringing us to monopoly levels in the field of services. Indian Government’s proactive approach and Startup India programme are impacting on the Industry. Ease doing businesses like single window clearance and tax exemptions major factor in giving pace to Indian IT companies growth. Likewise, robust IT infrastructure in various places of India, such as Bangalore, Gururgram, put us ahead of other competitors worldwide. Now there is no doubt that the world will change in a decade and India’s economy would be the world’s biggest economy, which make India a superpower. Moreover, IT and ITEs will play an essential role in inflating the Indian economy. nnn

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