Simon West - Beyond War

IT was only five years ago that I was working in Kyiv helping to develop the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ capabilities to resist Russian influence. I had been sent over to Eastern Europe after the Euromaidan uprising of early 2014, when the Ukrainian people had overturned the Russialeaning Yanukovych government. The ‘Revolution of Dignity’.

It was a time of great optimism. Various NATO and EU organisations were responding to the call to assist in forging stronger links between Ukraine and the West. We were warmly welcomed and able to learn about the country’s history and culture.

At one of the restaurants just off the Maidan, the city’s central square, you were only allowed in if you knew the password “Boritesya—poborete!” or “Fight and you will win”.

There was clear determination then, as now, of the national desire to seek freedom from Russian domination and interference.

Yes, there is plenty of shared history between the two peoples—some relating to their shared past and ‘brotherhood’—but plenty else to divide them. Some 3.9 million Ukrainians starved to death in the Soviet Union famines of 1932-33, all of those deaths attributable to the controls and subjugation policies of Joseph Stalin in Moscow.

Putin’s war

Vladimir Putin’s current war is entirely predictable. He has been in positions of power in Russia for over 20 years and has seen a steady decline in the councludes try’s influence. He believes Russia to be one of the great international powers and is now seeking to redress the balance in his favour. Western leadership has failed to recognise the threat.

Certainly, the failure to act more strongly in Georgia in 2008 and in Donbas and Crimea in 2014 will have led to him to feel the freedom to act. And he still has a stranglehold on Europe, with 40% of European gas supplies coming from Russia.

So what? Putin is unlikely to be disappearing quickly. There will be pressure on him internally but I don’t expect any quick coups. In Ukraine, Zelensky has been brilliant. The fight for freedom from Russia will continue, but there will come a time when some ground has to be given to avoid the ongoing loss of life and property.

We are likely to see a new stalemate but the underlying fight for freedom from Russian influence will continue for generations.

Strangely, in the UK we remember our historical rivalries with other European countries, but we don’t hold deep emotional animosity in the way I have seen in some parts of Europe. We are lucky to have been able to defend our island.

Last week in Nuremberg at IWA, there were many of us looking to find ‘supplies’ to support Ukraine, but there were also plenty of discussions within NATO countries about how they needed to re-arm and build their own capabilities and stockpiles. All the time there is a resurgent threat to our east there will remain a need to be strongly armed and deter.

Si vis pacem, para bellum. If you want peace, prepare for war.

The majority of our gun trade in UK is dedicated to sporting and recreational use, but our history in- plenty of examples of where our production and international networks have helped keep this island and our allies safe. I am hugely grateful for the efforts of our members who have already been able to support recent UK government calls for help. For now, the links have been set up to address those needs, but I will keep monitoring the opportunities that may arise. Can I ask that you all look to where you can help more widely? There are plenty of routes to assist. The UK Disasters Emergency Committee appeal would be an obvious start point (dec.org.uk)

We fail to support our allies in their fight for freedom and democracy at our peril.

Trading position

I would also like to reflect on our trading position in Europe. We were promised benefits from Brexit that have entirely failed to materialise. And worse, we have suffered fractures and frictions with our normal supply chain roues in and out of the UK. This cannot continue and I will be re-engaging with government to make the point.

Ultimately, it is our links with Europe and North America that support our trade. While I fight for ease of movement, I would also encourage the need to build closer international relationships with markets and suppliers.

IWA was certainly somewhat decaffeinated but was still immensely valuable as a forum to keep our networks alive. For those that travelled to Nuremberg, the experience was certainly different—but not necessarily bad. Having fewer visitors allowed for more valuable face-to-face activity.

The show certainly maintained sufficient momentum after the Covid pause to provide realistic planning for a full return in 2023.

The show organisers are keen to build UK representation into next year’s programme and I will be looking to support those ambitions. While it might feel a long way off now, you should start thinking about exhibiting or visiting, depending on the nature of your businesses.

I can help advise on how to engage and link you up with opportunities to do more business with theglobal audience that appears at the international trade shows. More to follow. GTN