- Good afternoon! I remember I enjoyed the talk with you very much. It was last June 25th. - Ever since then, there have been many things happening not only between the United States and North Korea but also between South Korea and North Korea. I hope to talk to you more about them today. - For the conversation today, I prepared PPT slides, and some video materials.
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- I would like to think about following questions: p Is the Summit between North Korea ‒ U.S a failed meeting ? p Has North Korea changed its strategy after the Summit talk? p North Korea will denuclearize eventually ? p Can North Korea be the next Vietnam in terms of economic reform toward market economy? p Will German Case be a model for unification on the Korean Peninsula? - All questions are not easy to answer, and I am not a expert on North Korea, as I confessed . So, I just decided to raise questions as a open ended questions. - Besides, I prepared some video clips of my colleagues to give answers to these questions for you.
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- LetĘťs first watch some video clips of historically significant events; 2 times South Korea -North Korea Summits in this April and May, and the U.S-North Korean Summit in June. - In between these summits, there were China and N.K summits twice.
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-The first is a video clip of meeting of 2 Korean leaders in the middle of DMZ In May. (click the button and expand!!)
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- The next video is about the U.S-North Korean Summit in Singapore this June. (click the button!! and expand)
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- Now, let's watch interviews of Korean experts including S. Korean foreign minister, about the summit between the United States and North Korea. -Although the interview was done before the summit, I think we can find clues to the answers to the questions we raised here. - The first video is an interview with the Korean Foreign Minister, and the next two interviews were conducted by Korean experts in the US.
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- (Click the button and turn CC, and expand!) - She said “I think we're cautiously optimistic that the talks will happen and that this will be a breakthrough for a peaceful resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue,�
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- Professor Kang is an alumnus of my university(Seoul National University) and attended to my lecture for a semester at the same university. He finished his master's degree and Ph.D. at U.C. Berkeley. He used be a prof. at CMC, and now he is teaching at the college in Boston. He is an political scientist and knows both S. Korea and the U.S. very well. - (Click the button and turn CC, and expand!)
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- He mentioned the two different concepts about denuclearization between the U.S and North Korea. - He also explained that president Trump and Kim, Jong-Un, both needed each other saying “if President Trump backs down from the summit meeting, he cannot gain anything at all and probably he will lose more his reputation�, and he also pointed that making a breakthrough with the United States is quite essential for Kim jong-un.
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- The next interviewee is a very, very important person, who poured his time and efforts for a long time for peacebuilding in the Korean Peninsula both academically and practically. I am going to introduce him in detail later. - (Click the button and turn C.C, and expand!)
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- I don't think I have to repeat his words, but I think many of them are very unique, clear, and impressive.
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- Here is another interview that he did on the US-North Korea Relations. -TRT World news is Turkish Broadcasting program, U.S. medias seems not want to contact him, and do not want to bring him to the American public either.
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- Now I am going to put an eye on the importance of looking the issue/ from the perspective of the peace or peace process. - For that, let me introduce a scholar I respect very much and share many ideas together, - And letĘźs listen to his beliefs and key claims about peace on the Korean peninsula.
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- As I introduced him for the last two video clips, his name is Han-Sik Park, he graduated from the same university, SNU in Seoul, S. Korea, then moved to the U.S. and studied political science and has been teaching at the Univ. of Georgia. - He is a founding director of the Center for the study of global issues and professor of international affairs at the University of Georgia.
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- You may know about the TED Videos. TEDx is a program of local, selforganized events. - TEDxUGA events are TEDTalks where speakers spark deep discussion and connection in a small group.
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- TEDxUGA introduces the speaker, Hanshik Park like the slide. - He was raised in the war-torn areas of China and Korea, Dr. Park has developed a life-long commitment to peace studies. - Park has visited North Korea some 50 times, and he contributed to expanding the network for dialogue and adverting military confrontation on the Korean peninsula and beyond.
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- He was awarded the Gandhi-King-Ikeda Community BuilderĘźs Prize (2010) for his peace building efforts around the world.
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- ParkĘźs writings reflect this principle: Development as the Crossroads (2015), North Korea Demystified (2012), North Korea: The Politics of Unconventional Wisdom (2002). “
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- He was not a well-known scholar in Korea not just because he lives in the United States, but because he is too radical for the Korean academia and medias. - Recently, however, he wrote a book in Korea about North Korea, and it gave a great shock to many Korean readers. - As such, Korean public have had an distorted, inaccurate ideas about the North Korea, which were forced mainly by the ideologically biased media.
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- The title of his recent book I read is ʝNorth Korea Demystified� published in 2012.
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- LetĘźs get into his 13 minute long brief speech. - (Click the button and turn C.C, and expand!)
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- I hope we can talk more about his speech later and let's move on to the remaining questions.
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- For the next two questions, I am going to bring the ideas from the Western magazines that I think rational and agreeable. - I will briefly summarize the story, then we can discuss later.
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- As America presses North Korea to abandon nuclear weapons, it has pointed to Vietnam as an example of the prosperity that awaits. It is not the first time Vietnam has been held up as a model for North Korea. - This issue has been covered in the recent 'Economist' magazine. As the title says “Market reforms invite comparisons, but North Koreaʼs path is more anxious” it was published last weekend.
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- Yes, there are similarities. Like North Korea始s economy today, Vietnam始s used to be largely collectivised. - The Vietnamese Communist party始s ability to retain power at the same time as freeing markets must appeal to Kim Jong Un, - In 1985, on the eve of Vietnam始s doi moi, here doi moi means iberalising reforms policy, its GDP per person was a mere 1% of the U.S's. In 2015 North Korea was in an identical position.
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- However, North Korea is different from Vietnam in three ways. - In VietnamĘźs south, its economic heartland, collectivisation of farms and factories lasted just ten years before private ownership was restored. People who had previously run businesses were able to get quickly back in the game. - After 65 years of juche, the national ideology of self-reliance, North Koreans are starting from scratch. - remarkable thing is that informal food and goods markets grow in recent years. It shows some entrepreneurship, but the learning curve for big firms will be much steeper.
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Second difference is economic structure.
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More than 70% of the workforce in both Vietnam in the mid-1980s and China in the late 1970s (when its economic reforms started) was in agriculture. Simple changes to incentives̶letting farmers profit from the sale of their own crops, for example̶led to a surge of agricultural productivity. And the exodus of workers from farms generated a pool of cheap labour for factories, fuelling the rise of export industries.
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By contrast, more than 60% of North Koreaʼs population already lives in cities. In that respect North Korea resembles eastern Europe after the Soviet Unionʼs collapse. There will be losers. Unemployment might soar. Privatisation could increase already-rampant corruption even further.
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However, sitting between China, South Korea and Japan, North Korea should find it easy to attract capital to create jobs.
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- Another weakness for North Korea is demographic factor. - When Vietnam and China embarked on reforms they were both young countries, with median ages of about 20. - They had many workers and few elderly dependent on them. - In North Korea, the median age is already 34, making it even older than Vietnam today. - As China ages, officials worry that it will get old before it gets rich. - In North Korea the risk is that it will get old while it is still poor.
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- The last question is about the reunification model. whether German model can be replaced in Korean Peninsula again ?
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- I will also introduce an article, comparing Korean reunification issue to that of German case/ from an online International magazine, 'Geo-political Futures'. - itʼs viewpoint is worth reading and almost the same as mine. - As a conclusion, it says “The two Germanies were much better suited for reunification than the two Koreas”.
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-entice: lure, attract
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- Thank you again for your time and patience.
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