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2014 ECONOMIC

OUTLOOK

What are your expectations of the economic performance for 2014 compared to 2013 for the following areas?

FASTER GROWTH

SAME AS 2013

SLOWER GROWTH

27%

51%

22%

UNITED STATES

Greater Omaha Chamber members are more optimistic about local and regional growth prospects than they are about the outlook for the national economy. Current regional economic conditions provide a healthy on-ramp to 2014: private sector employers added more than 5,200 net new jobs for the 12 months ending in August; home sales have increased for six consecutive months and net taxable sales have increased for 10 consecutive months. At the national level, loose monetary policy, record corporate profits and a continued rebound in the housing sector will likely lead to an acceleration in economic growth in 2014. Economic Outlook Chamber members remain upbeat about Greater Omaha’s projected economic activity in 2014, with 58 percent of survey respondents expecting stronger growth in the coming year. Only 6 percent of respondents expect slower growth in the year ahead. At the state level, 37 percent of respondents expect stronger growth in 2014 and 57 percent expecting about the same pace of growth as in 2013. At the national level, 27 percent of respondents anticipate faster growth in 2014. One-in-five respondents anticipate slower growth for the U.S. economy in 2014. Commercial Activity Seven-out-of-ten respondents expect stronger sales in 2014, with a relatively meager 9 percent expecting sales revenue to decline. As for how businesses are faring thus far in 2013, 61 percent of respondents have posted increased sales revenue compared to 2012. Workforce Forty-four percent of respondents expect to increase employment levels in 2014 compared to 2013. A relatively small (6 percent) of respondents anticipate the need to reduce employment levels in the coming year. Thus far in 2013, 41 percent of respondents report increased employment levels compared to 2012. Capital Investment Respondents anticipate a solid follow-up to 2013 investment expenditures in 2014. Ninety percent of respondents expect to increase capital expenditures or maintain spending at current levels in 2014 compared to 2013. Thus far in 2013, 40 percent of respondents report increased levels of capital expenditures compared to 2012.

37%

57% 6%

NEBRASKA

58%

36% 6%

GREATER OMAHA Total Respondents: 146

Looking ahead to 2014, how do you anticipate your business will perform compared to this year in the following categories?

SALES REVENUE/ VOLUME OF BUSINESS

70% INCREASE 21% SAME AS 2013 9% DECREASE

44% INCREASE NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES

50% SAME AS 2013 6% DECREASE

40% INCREASE CAPITAL INVESTMENT

50% SAME AS 2013 11% DECREASE Total Respondents: 134

METHODOLOGY – An email with a link to complete the 2013 Economic Outlook Survey was sent in late September 2013 to active member contacts of the Greater Omaha Chamber. A total of 152 surveys were completed (or partially completed). The results of this survey and other economic statistics are available at OmahaChamber.org and SelectGreaterOmaha.com. Note: Charts may equal more than 100 based on rounding.


GREATER OMAHA TRENDS EMPLOYMENT* (000s)

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2011

2012

Total Non-Farm Employment

355.2

392.2

441.6

448.8

457.3

461.3

467.4

Private Employment

301.8

336.6

386.4

388.9

392.1

395.7

401.9

Mining. Logging and Construction

12.4

17.5

23.2

25.7

20.9

20.1

21.1

Manufacturing

32.8

34.6

35.7

32.9

31.2

31.2

31.3

Trade, Transportation & Utilities

90.6

98.6

107.5

99.4

93.7

93.7

93.8

Information

10.8

12.9

15.1

13.3

11.2

11.3

11.4

Financial Activities

29.8

31.3

35.7

37.6

40.5

41.3

41.6

Professional and Business Services

40.8

49.0

59.6

61.6

63.1

64.6

66.7

Education and Health Care Service

40.7

45.2

54.5

60.2

70.2

71.7

73.1

Leisure and Hospitality

30.8

34.2

41.0

42.2

43.8

44.4

45.6

Other Services

13.1

13.4

14.2

16.1

17.5

17.3

17.4

Government

53.4

55.6

55.3

59.9

65.3

65.5

65.5

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2011

2012

Greater Omaha CSA

2.8

2.8

2.8

4.3

5.2

5.0

4.4

State of Nebraska

2.3

2.6

2.8

3.9

4.7

4.4

3.9

United States

5.6

5.6

4.0

5.1

9.6

8.9

8.1

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2011

2012

Single-Family Permits

2,161

2,526

3,393

5,487

2,072

1,960

2,071

Multi-Family Units

1,201

1,097

2,442

1,061

684

981

1,225

423

579

365

401

149

169

179

2,673

3,212

3,975

5,976

2,255

2,170

2,339

Single-Family

149.6

220.3

357.1

706.1

345.6

334.8

378.8

Multi-Family

19.8

31.3

114.7

62.4

45.5

68.7

86.6

BUILDING PERMITS* Number of Permits/Units

Non-Residential Permits Total Permits (includes multi-family permits) Valuation of Permits ($ millions)

93.2

163.7

228.1

196.0

156.5

191.9

302.9

Total Valuation

Non-Residential

262.6

415.3

699.9

964.5

547.6

595.4

768.2

RETAIL*

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2011

2012

Net Taxable Sales ($ billions)

4.19

5.47

7.01

8.67

9.24

9.64

9.81

Net Taxable Sales of Motor Vehicles ($ millions)

531.8

699.0

970.9

1,055.0

1,152.8

1,224.9

1,317.2

POPULATION

1980

1990

2000

2010

2012

689,423

720,291

803,201

902,041

2001

2005

2008

35,548

39,406

n.a.

1.5%

31,146 n.a.

Greater Omaha CSA

GROSS METRO PRODUCT* (2005 $s millions) Total Real (inflation-adjusted) Output Growth Rate (%) Private Industries (inflation-adjusted) Output Growth Rate (%)

2017

2022

projection

projection

925,858

978,451

980,652

2009

2010

2011

2012

41,884

41,541

42,828

43,360

44,154

-0.3%

-0.8%

3.1%

1.2%

1.8%

35,022

37,482

37,066

38,046

38,593

39,395

1.8%

-0.5%

-1.1%

2.6%

1.4%

2.1%

*Greater Omaha MSA SelectGreaterOmaha.com • 402-346-5000 • 800-852-2622 • 1301 Harney St., Omaha, NE 68102


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