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ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE EU 27 ENERGY OUTLOOK

6.1methodologytocalculatejobs

6

Inputsforenergygenerationanddemandforeach scenarioinclude:

Greenpeace International and the European Renewable Energy Council have published four global Energy [R]evolution scenarios. These compare a low-carbon Energy [R]evolution scenario to a Reference scenario based on the International Energy Agency (IEA) “business as usual” projections (from the WEO series, for example International Energy Agency, 2007, 2011). The Institute for Sustainable Futures (ISF) analysed the employment effects of the 2008 and 2012 Energy [R]evolution global scenarios. The methodology used in the 2012 global analysis is used to calculate energy sector employment for the EU 27 Energy [R]evolution and Reference scenario.

• The amount of electrical and heating capacity that will be installed each year for each technology. • The primary energy demand for coal, gas, and biomass fuels in the electricity and heating sectors. • The amount of electricity generated per year from nuclear, oil, and diesel. Inputsforeachtechnologyinclude:

• ‘Employment factors’, or the number of jobs per unit of capacity, separated into manufacturing, construction, operation and maintenance, and per unit of primary energy for fuel supply.

Employment is projected for the EU 27 for both scenarios at 2015, 2020, and 2030 by using a series of employment multipliers and the projected electrical generation, electrical capacity, heat collector capacity, and the primary consumption of coal, gas and biomass (excluding gas used for transport). The results of the energy scenarios are used as inputs to the employment modelling.

• For the 2020 and 2030 calculations, a ‘decline factor’ for each technology which reduces the employment factors by a certain percentage per year to reflect the employment per unit reduction as technology efficiencies improve.

Only direct employment is included, namely jobs in construction, manufacturing, operations and maintenance, and fuel supply associated with electricity generation and direct heat provision. Indirect jobs, induced jobs, and energy efficiency jobs are not included in the calculations. Indirect jobs generally include jobs in secondary industries which supply the primary industry sector, for example, catering and accommodation. Induced jobs are those resulting from spending wages earned in the primary industries.

• The percentage of local manufacturing and domestic fuel production in each region, in order to calculate the number of manufacturing and fuel production jobs in the region. • The percentage of world trade which originates in the region for coal and gas fuels, and renewable traded components. The electrical capacity increase and energy use figures from each scenario are multiplied by the employment factors for each of the technologies, and then adjusted for the proportion of fuel or manufacturing occurring locally. The calculation is summarised in Table 6.1.

A detailed description of the methodology is given in Rutovitz & Harris, 2012a.

table 6.1: methodologyoverview MANUFACTURING (FOR LOCAL USE)

=

MW INSTALLED PER YEAR IN REGION

×

MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT FACTOR

MANUFACTURING (FOR EXPORT)

=

MW EXPORTED PER YEAR

×

MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT FACTOR

CONSTRUCTION

=

MW INSTALLED PER YEAR

×

CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT FACTOR

OPERATION & MAINTENANCE

=

CUMULATIVE CAPACITY

×

O&M EMPLOYMENT FACTOR

FUEL SUPPLY (NUCLEAR)

=

ELECTRICITY GENERATION

×

FUEL EMPLOYMENT FACTOR

FUEL SUPPLY (COAL, GAS & BIOMASS)

=

PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND + EXPORTS

×

FUEL EMPLOYMENT FACTOR

HEAT SUPPLY

=

MW INSTALLED PER YEAR

×

EMPLOYMENT FACTOR FOR HEAT

JOBS

=

EMPLOYMENT FACTOR = AT 2020 OR 2030

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×

% OF LOCAL MANUFACTURING

×

% OF LOCAL PRODUCTION

+ FUEL SUPPLY MANUFACTURING + CONSTRUCTION + OPERATION & MAINTENANCE (O&M) 2010 EMPLOYMENT FACTOR × TECHNOLOGY DECLINE FACTOR(NUMBER OF YEARS AFTER 2010)

+ FUEL SUPPLY

Energy [R]evolution EU  

A Sustainable EU 27 Energy Outlook

Energy [R]evolution EU  

A Sustainable EU 27 Energy Outlook