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ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE EU 27 ENERGY OUTLOOK

5.2electricitygeneration

5 keyresults |

The development of the electricity supply market under the Energy [R]evolution scenario is characterised by a dynamically growing renewable energy market. This will compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reduce the number of fossil fuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation. By 2050, 96% of the electricity produced in EU 27 will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, solar thermal energy and PV – will contribute 75% of electricity generation. The Energy [R]evolution scenario projects an immediate market development with high annual growth rates achieving a renewable electricity share of 44% already by 2020 and 67% by 2030. The installed capacity of renewables will reach 989 GW in 2030 and 1,480 GW by 2050.

EU 27 - ELECTRICITY GENERATION

Table 5.1 shows the comparative evolution of the different renewable technologies in EU 27 over time. Up to 2020 hydro and wind will remain the main contributors of the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will be complemented by electricity from biomass, photovoltaics and solar thermal (CSP) energy. The Energy [R]evolution scenario will lead to a high share of fluctuating power generation sources (photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 40% by 2030, therefore the expansion of smart grids, demand side management (DSM) and storage capacity e.g. from the increased share of electric vehicles will be used for a better grid integration and power generation management.

table5.1:renewableelectricitygenerationcapacityunder thereferencescenarioandtheenergy[r]evolutionscenario IN GW

2009

2020

2030

2040

2050

Hydro

REF E[R]

146 146

155 151

161 155

164 161

168 165

Biomass

REF E[R]

20 20

29 35

36 47

42 57

47 72

Wind

REF E[R]

75 75

189 246

243 368

275 458

298 492

Geothermal

REF E[R]

1 1

2 6

2 25

3 45

4 56

PV

REF E[R]

14 14

77 213

110 345

137 498

163 570

CSP

REF E[R]

0 0

2 11

4 31

5 62

6 81

Ocean energy

REF E[R]

0 0

0 3

2 18

11 36

16 44

Total

REF E[R]

256 256

455 666

558 636 702 989 1,316 1,480

figure5.5: electricitygenerationstructureunderthereferencescenario andtheenergy[r]evolutionscenario (INCLUDING ELECTRICITY FOR ELECTROMOBILITY, HEAT PUMPS AND HYDROGEN GENERATION)

4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 TWh/a 0 REF 2009

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E[R]

REF 2015

E[R]

REF 2020

E[R]

REF 2030

E[R]

REF 2040

E[R]

REF 2050

E[R]

•• •• •• •• •• •• •

OCEAN ENERGY SOLAR THERMAL GEOTHERMAL BIOMASS PV WIND HYDRO NUCLEAR DIESEL OIL NATURAL GAS LIGNITE COAL

Energy [R]evolution EU  

A Sustainable EU 27 Energy Outlook

Energy [R]evolution EU  

A Sustainable EU 27 Energy Outlook