ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE EU 27 ENERGY OUTLOOK
energy are increasingly substituting for fossil fuel-fired systems. The introduction of strict efficiency measures, for example strict building standards and ambitious support programs for renewable heating systems, are needed to achieve economies of scale within the next 5 to 10 years. • Future investments in the heat sector: The heat sector in the Energy [R]evolution scenario would require a major revision of current investment strategies in heating technologies. In particular, the less common technologies such as solar, geothermal and heat pumps need a significant increase in installations if their potential is to be tapped for the heat sector. Installed capacity needs to be increased by a factor of 90 for solar thermal and by a factor of 230 for geothermal and heat pumps. Capacities of biomass technologies, which are already relatively widespread would remain a pillar of heat supply, assuming the use of sustainably sourced biomass. Renewable heating technologies vary greatly, from low tech biomass stoves and unglazed solar collectors to very sophisticated enhanced geothermal systems and solar thermal district heating plants with seasonal storage. Thus, it can only roughly be calculated that the Energy [R]evolution scenario requires approximately € 74 billion per year to be invested in renewable heating technologies until 2050, including investments for replacement after the economic lifetime of the plants. • Future employment in the energy sector: The Energy [R]evolution scenario results in more energy sector jobs in EU 27 at every stage of the projection. There are 1.5 million energy sector jobs in the Energy [R]evolution in 2015, and 0.9 million in the Reference scenario. By 2020, there are 1.4 million jobs in the Energy [R]evolution scenario, 500,000 more than in the Reference case. Jobs in the coal sector decline in both scenarios, leading to an overall decline of 34% in energy sector jobs in the Reference scenario. • Transport: In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution scenario that a total energy demand reduction of about 7,100 PJ/a can be achieved by 2050, saving 53% compared to the Reference scenario. This reduction can be achieved by the introduction of highly efficient vehicles, shifting a considerable amount of goods from road to rail, replacing domestic and intra-EU air passenger transport by high-speed rail services as much as possible and changes in mobility-related behavior patterns. By implementing a mix of increased public transport as attractive alternatives to individual cars, the car stock grows more slowly and annual person kilometers are lower than in the Reference scenario. A shift towards smaller cars, triggered by economic incentives, together with a significant shift in propulsion technology towards electrified power trains and a reduction of vehicle kilometers travelled lead to significant energy savings. In 2030, electricity will provide 12% of the transport sector’s total energy demand in the Energy [R]evolution, while in 2050 the share will be 50%.
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• Primary energy consumption: Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, overall primary energy demand will be reduced by 40% in 2050 compared to the Reference scenario. Around 85% of the remaining demand will be covered by renewable energy sources. The Energy [R]evolution scenario phases out coal and oil about 10 to 15 years faster than the previous Energy [R]evolution scenario published in 2010. This is made possible mainly by the replacement of coal power plants with renewables and a faster introduction of highly efficient electric vehicles in the transport sector to replace internal combustion engines. This leads to an overall renewable primary energy share of 43% in 2030 and 85% in 2050. • Development of CO2 emissions: While CO2 emissions in EU 27 will decrease by 10% in the Reference scenario, under the Energy [R]evolution scenario they will decrease by 95%, from around 3,500 million tonnes in 2009 to 197 million tonnes in 2050. Annual per capita emissions will drop from 7.1 tonnes to 3.5 tonnes in 2030 and 0.4 tonnes in 2050. Despite the phasing out of nuclear energy and increasing demand, CO2 emissions will decrease in the electricity sector. In the long run, efficiency gains and the increased use of renewable electricity in vehicles will reduce emissions in the transport sector. With a share of 17% of CO2 emissions in 2050, the power sector will drop below transport and other sectors as the largest sources of emissions. By 2050, EU 27’s CO2 emissions are 5% of 1990 levels.