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© STEVE MORGAN/GP

image PARKING SPACE FOR HYBRIDS ONLY.

BEV PHEV DIESEL PHEV OTTO

CONVENTIONAL HYBRID OTTO DIESEL OTTO

•• ••

FCV BEV PHEV DIESEL PHEV OTTO

2049

2045

2047

2041

2043

2037

2039

2033

2035

2029

2031

2025

2027

2021

2023

2017

2019

2013

2009

2045

2047

2041

2043

2037

2039

2033

2035

2049

•• ••

CONVENTIONAL HYBRID DIESEL

CONVENTIONAL HYBRID DIESEL CONVENTIONAL HYBRID OTTO DIESEL

9

OTTO

transport |

•• ••

FCV

2029

0% 2031

10%

0% 2025

20%

10% 2027

30%

20%

2021

40%

30%

2023

50%

40%

2017

60%

50%

2019

70%

60%

2013

80%

70%

2015

90%

80%

2009

100%

90%

2011

100%

2015

figure9.24: salesshareofvehicletechnologiesinlarge LDVsupto2050intheenergy[r]evolutionscenario

2011

figure9.23: salesshareofvehicletechnologiesinmedium LDVsupto2050intheenergy[r]evolutionscenario

•• ••

© TARAN55/DREAMSTIME

image A SIGN PROMOTES A HYDROGEN REFUELING STATION IN REYKJAVIK. THESE STATIONS ARE PART OF A PLAN TO TRY AND MAKE ICELAND A ‘HYDROGEN ECONOMY.’

There is a well-established correlation between GDP and passenger car sales. As GDP rises, car sales grow and thus vehicle stock and ownership increase as well. However, this scenario analysis found that technology shift in LDVs alone – although linked to enormous efficiency gains and fuel switch – is not sufficient to achieve the ambitious Energy [R]evolution CO2-reduction targets. A slow-down of vehicle sales growth and a limitation or even reduction in vehicle ownership per capita compared to the Reference scenario was therefore required. Trends such as urbanisation processes as well as decreasing vehicle ownership rate in developed cities, support a different scenario compared to the Reference case. To break the global pattern of a century, this development needs to be supported by policy interventions to promote modal shift and alternative forms of car usage. The development of the EU 27 car stock in the Energy [R]evolution scenario is shown in Figure 9.25.

Until a full shift from fossil to renewable fuels has taken place, driving on the road will create CO2 emissions. A reduction in driving therefore contributes to our target for emissions reduction. However, this shift does not have to lead to reduced mobility because there are many opportunities for shifts from individual passenger road transport towards less CO2 intensive public or nonmotorised transport. The scenario is based on from the state-ofthe-art knowledge on how LDVs are driven in the EU and then projects a decline in car usage. This is a further major building block of the Energy [R]evolution scenario, which goes hand in hand with new mobility concepts like co-modality and car-sharing concepts. Our projections of annual kilometres driven (AKD) by LDVs in the EU 27 is shown in Figure 9.26. We project a decrease in AKD in the EU 27 by about 0.25% per year until 2050 compared to 2009 in the Energy [R]evolution scenario.

figure9.25: developmentoftheLDVstockovertimein theenergy[r]evolutionscenario

figure9.26: averageannualLDVkilometresdriveninthe energy[r]evolutionscenario

350

14,000

300

12,000

250

10,000 kilometres

vehicle stock (millions)

9.3.5projectionoffuturekilometresdrivenperyear

200 150

8,000 6,000

100

4,000

50

2,000

0

0 2009

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2009

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

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PROJECTION OF THE FUTURE VEHICLE SEGMENT SPLIT

9.3.4projectionoftheEU27vehiclestockdevelopment

Energy [R]evolution EU  

A Sustainable EU 27 Energy Outlook

Energy [R]evolution EU  

A Sustainable EU 27 Energy Outlook