CONSIDERATION #3: Weather patterns are driving planting choices. During the past decade, the government has worked hard to increase production of certain key crops to help make sure the Chinese population is fed. These food security policies have provided farmers guaranteed prices for corn, soybeans and other key crops. Some of the areas where corn and soybeans are grown have seasons that are just barely long enough to yield a fully mature crop at the end of the year. This year, some of these lands have experienced adverse weather patterns and farmers have been forced to abandon their plans to grow corn and soy in Northeast China. This is not expected to impact corn and soy markets to any large extent, however, because there are adequate strategic reserves of both of these crops. Since the kidney bean growing season is shorter than that for corn and soy, many of the affected farmers are switching to this pulse crop. The chart that follows shows the impact of increased bean production at the 5%, 12% and 25% levels.
CONCLUSIONS Many factors are driving China kidney bean production this year and a high volume is expected. It is important to consider these factors collectively rather than individually in order to see the full picture. Based on the analysis presented here and on conversations with growers, processors and exporters, we estimate Chinaâ€™s 2013 kidney bean production at 1.25 million tons. This represents a 30% increase over 2012. The chart that follows puts this estimate in historical context. 20 IFTmag
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