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April 26, 2013

India imported around 125-130 million tons of coal in FY 2013

Portwise Coal Imports- March'13

Increasing demand for coal in the country forced Indian buyers to import more coal in 2012-2013 as domestic supply did not match total demand.

0.22

HALDIA

0.21 0.30 0.46

INDIAN PORTS

JAIGARH

During the FY 2013, nearly 127.25 MnT of coal has been imported (i.e. April 2012 – March 2013), as per Indian custom data against 105 million tons in 2011-2012

0.08

Kandla

0.00

GOA

0.03

DAHEJ

Mundra

0.60 0.65 0.26 0.55 0.49 0.39

PARADIP KRISHNAPATNAM

0.58

0.00

VIZAG

Coal demand for the year 2013-14 is estimated at 769.7 MnT and the total Indian coal production is estimated to be 604.6 MnT (including captive). Thus, the estimated gap of 165.14 MnT of coal will need to be met through imports which is about 30% more compared to current import.

3.49

OTHERS

1.13

0.00

2.37 0.00 0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Qty in million tons

3.50

STEAM

4.00

COKING

Non-Coking Coal Market remains Stable Global Coking Coal Index Prices Particular (FOB Australia) in $/MT 24-Apr

Spot HCC prices remain downward

Platts Premium Low Vol

148.00

Spot metallurgical coal prices in Asian market continues to decline due to cautious Indian and Chinese buyers amid 153.00 158.50 good supply from Australia.

Platts HCC 64 Mid Vol

132.00

139.00 143.00 Low buying interest in the market is seen with small vol-

2 Week

4 week

umes being purchased by the end users of the material, said sources. "Demand is not impressive, but it’s moving slowly", said a source based in Singapore. Current price for Premium Low Volume is at $148/MT (FoB Australia) converting to $166/MT CFR India. Whereas, HCC 64 mid volume is at $132/MT FoB. Freight charge from Australia to India is at around $18/MT on panamax basis.

Prices for Indonesian material remain at same level due to booked shipments till May. "Movement in prices (up and down) will be seen after May as Indonesia is fulfilling the supply orders till May end at same price level", said an importer based in Mumbai.

Global Non-Coking Coal Prices Origin Destination Grade Port Port (in kcal) GCV

Avg. Freight

CNF ($/MT)

Indonesia

ECI

3800 GAR

37

12.00

49.00

Indonesia

WCI

4000 GAR

40

14.50

54.50

WCI ECI

4200 GAR 6000 NAR

43 80

14.50 18.00

57.50 98.00

Current price offers for RB1 (South Africa) is at $80/MT Indonesia (FoB Richards Bay ), whereas Indonesian 3800 GAR is at South Africa $37 and 4200 GAR is at $43/MT respectively. Supramax freight charge from Indonesia (South Kalimantan) remains stable at $12/MT for ECI and $14.5/Mt for WCI.

FOB ($/MT)

WCI - West Coast India ECI - East Coast India


April 26, 2013

Growing Imported Coal Market in India

India's Coal Import 100.0

QTY(inmillion tons)

90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0

Coking Coal

50.0

Thermal Coal

40.0 30.0 20.0

Demand-Supply Gap Year 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 (E) 2012-17 (XII Plan)

Supply 430.8 457 490 514.5 536.1 554 580 759.6

Demand 463.9 504.3 546.1 582.3 624.8 696 772.8 1,000-1,050

GAP 33.1 47.3 56.1 67.8 88.7 142 192.8 250-300

(Source: Working Group Report MOC, Govt. of India)

10.0

Widening demand-supply gap is continuously encouraging imports in the country. At present, India ranks fourth in coal imports and the major sources are Indonesia, Australia and South Africa. Canada, Mozambique and USA.

0.0

India’s coal production has increased from ~554 million tons (MnT) in 2011-12 to ~557 MnT in 2012-13 (an increase of 0.5%). On the other hand, demand for coal has grown at CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of more than 7% in the last decade and has reached around 696 MnT (2011-12) as against the production growth of ~5%. It is further anticipated that coal production will grow at a CAGR of around 7-9% during 2013-14. According to the report of the Working Group of Coal and Lignite for the 12th Five Year Plan, coal demand in India is projected to grow at a CAGR of 7.1% till 2016-17 and reach 980.5 MnT.

Vessel Freight Load Port SUPRAMAX Taboneo (Indonesia) Taboneo (Indonesia) Richards Bay (S.Africa) Richards Bay (S.Africa) Richards Bay (S.Africa) PANAMAX North Pulau Laut(Indonesia) North Pulau Laut(Indonesia) North Pulau Laut(Indonesia) Richards Bay (S.Africa) Richards Bay (S.Africa) Richards Bay (S.Africa) Richards Bay (S.Africa)

Discharge Port

Cargo Qty

Current (USD/MT) (22-04-2013)

Previous (USD/MT) Change (15-04-2013)

Chennai Navalakhi Kandla Chennai Paradip

50,000 MT 53,000 MT 53,000 MT 50,000 MT 53,000 MT

11.30 13.60 20.50 20.00 20.00

11.20 13.60 21.60 21.10 21.20

0.1 0.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2

Mundra Goa Dahej Paradip Mundra Goa Dahej

71,500 MT 71,500 MT 68,000 MT 68,000 MT 71,500 MT 71,500 MT 68,000 MT

9.80 10.00 10.70 19.20 16.50 16.60 18.10

9.60 9.90 10.70 19.20 16.50 16.70 18.20

0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1


April 26, 2013

Vessels expected at Major Ports as on April 26,2013 Name of the Vessel Vizag MV.DORIC LIBERTY MV.STX GLOBAL MV.MALAVIKA MV.OCEAN LIBRA MV.SPAR TAURUS MV.STX CLOVER KRISHNAPATNAM MV NAVIOUS STELLAR MV SILVER FREN MV NIGHT HWAK MV CAPE BRITANNIA MV GALVESTON SOUTHERN HARMONY DHAMRA M.V.CAPE PEONY M.V.HOUHENG3 M.V.FRONTIER QUEEN M.V.AMIS WISDOM 3 M.V.PRONOI R PARADIP MV.ATLANTIC HORIZON MV.SHROPSHIRE MV.MEDI IMABARI MV.CONTI OPAL MV.TAN BINH 22 HALDIA MV. TRADE WILL MV. NAVIOS KYPROS MV. ASTRA PERSUES MV. SHI ZI SHAN MV. ANGLE STAR

ETA / Arrival

Cargo

Qty (MT)

Receiver

PORT

41390 41392 41392 41393 41394 41400

STEAM COAL COKING COAL COKING COAL COKING COAL STEAM COAL COKING COAL

78750 79892 44656 79000 53000 79043

GANDHAR JAYASWAL NECO

-

26.04.13 27.04.13 27.04.13 28.04.13 30.04.13 30.04.13

S.COAL COAL S.COAL S.COAL S.COAL S.COAL

161749 55000 165000 30000 165000

INDIA CEMENTS,BHATIA ARS METALS LTD INDIA,PARASHKTI,KCP,MADRAS CEMENTS RENUKA ENERGY. ADANI

RICHARDS BAY INDONESIA RICHARDS BAY INDONESIA INDONESIA

26.04.2013 27.04.2013 28.04.2013 03.05.2013 04.05.2013

S.COAL S.COAL C.COAL C.COAL C.COAL

150000 150000 150000 33000 54973

VISA STEMCORE TATA STEEL LTD TATA STEEL LTD BHUSHAN STEEL LTD

-

27.04.13 29.04.13 30.04.13 01.05.13 05.04.13

H.C.COAL S.COAL S.COAL S.COAL A.COAL

30000 55000 33000 33000 5999

SAIL MMTC/KNOWLEDGE MMTC/CEPL MMTC/CEPL IMFA

CAMPHA PORT,.VIETNAM

26.04.13 26.04.13 26.04.13 26.04.13 29.04.13

C.COAL PCI COAL STEAM COAL C.COAL C.COAL

20000 MT 16000 MT 21700 MT 20000 MT 30457 MT

SAIL SAIL MMTC LTD ENNORE COKE VITHOBA GLOBAL

NORFOLK AUSTRALIA INDONESIA AUSTRALIA GLADSTONE

MUARA SABAK

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Coal price review