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POLITICS
GEORGIA TODAY
DECEMBER 15 - 18, 2017
Iran’s Growing Role in the Middle East OP-ED BY EMIL AVDALIANI
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n the early 620s AD, the period just before the Arab invasions of the Middle East, the Sasanian Shah, Khusro II, with his large armies, besieged Constantinople, Byzantium's capital, having already occupied Egypt, Syria, Palestine and other former Byzantine lands. This was a momentous event in world history as the Iranians had not reached the Mediterranean Sea since the end of the Achaemenid Empire in 330 BC. However, Iranian success proved to be short-lived, and for the next 1,400 years, the Iranian ambitions were checked, until reports and various hints emerged recently that Iran-backed forces had moved to control the Syria-Iraq border. This is an exceptional moment, as Iran would again be able to have a contiguous land bridge from its proper territory through north Iraq and Syria, right to the Mediterranean coast. From now on, the Iranians will be able to link-up with their closest allies in Lebanon, Hezbollah. If that scenario is correct then, after 12 years of conflict in Iraq and another conflict in Syria, Iran is steadily transforming into a more powerful geopolitical player whose influence will be projected over hundreds and maybe thousands of kilometers beyond its borders. However, that is not the full story, as the route is quite complex as it weaves across Arab Iraq, via Iraq’s Kurdish north, into Kurdish north-eastern Syria and
through the battlefields north of Aleppo, where Russia, Iran and their allies won an important battle earlier this year. Putting the Iranian Corridor into Context To start, geography is a key to understanding the Iranian grand strategy and its ambitions. A look at the map shows that Iran's major population centers are surrounded by almost impregnable mountains and deserts, as well as water barriers. To the west and north-west are the Zagros Mountains, essentially separating Iran from the resource-rich and fertile Iraq. To the north the Elburz Mountains and Armenia's mountainous lands have always served as a defensive shield. The Caspian Sea in the north and the Arabian Sea in the south are yet more impregnable barriers. To the east and north-east, the harsh climate of Afghanistan and Pakistan, alongside Turkmenistan's semi-barren steppe lands, have kept Iran's provinces more or less safe (except for occasional attacks by nomadic peoples). This advantageous mountainous and desert geography has, however, also limited the projection of Iranian power abroad. Due to poor geographic conditions, there has been no economic or military reason to project Iranian power into Central Asia, or Afghanistan and Pakistan. Thus, strategically, the most advantageous territory for Iran to project its power to has been the western frontier, or modern-day Iraq (Mesopotamia): always rich in population and natural resources and therefore worth controlling. This could at least partially explain Iran’s ambitious ‘corridor’ to the Mediterranean.
Developments of the Georgian Church, 20 Years On Continued from page 6
This would completely destruct the already shattered reputation and power of the church, and especially that of the candidate who could allegedly “defeat” the Metropolitan Shio. The moment Patriarch named Shio as his locum tenens, some of the Synod members flew to the USA. This group mainly consisted of those priests, who some 4 years ago, attacked LGBTQ protestors with chairs. Also, these are the people who have been blaming the US and the West in infringing on Georgian traditions. Apparently, the Patriarch’s decision has changed many things. Today, these priests started making completely different statements. For example, Bishop Iakob, who is considered as one of the candidates for the post of the Patriarch, said that during his visit to America he saw things in a completely new light. “The USA is a country that has not betrayed us. For years, Russia has been openly leading a war against us. Therefore, the support from America is very important for us, they also saw that we, the Church, are not planning to compromise with our rivals. Nothing is worth the sale
of freedom,” said the Bishop to the press. The same message was communicated by the rest of the priests, when they answered questions about the USA and Georgia relations. Shio wasn’t among the priests who travelled to Moscow. Apparently, he did not want this to be added to the already existing pro-Russian accusations against him. After the Patriarch named Metropolitan Shio as his locum tenens, people started talking about his tight connections with the Russian Church. His most obvious weakness is his friend Levan Vasadze, who is considered as the main sponsor and ideologist of the anti-Western movement in the country. As we don’t know whether Metropolitan Shio regards his friend’s pro-Russianist views as a sin, doubts and accusations continue. Elites in all countries and nations have one valuable trait, which is compromise. The last 25 years have shown that local secular and political elites don’t have this quality. But let’s hope that in that very decisive moment, at least our religious elites will prove this skill, and won’t push their country off the cliff just like their secular brothers did.
Indeed, history shows how crucial Iraq has been in Iran's calculus. Take as an example the Achaemenid Empire, followed by Parthia and the Sasanian State: they all hung to Mesopotamia and even had their capital Ctesiphon located along the Euphrates River near modern-day Baghdad. Iranians have been always worried about not allowing a foreign presence in the territories surrounding the Iranian plateau. Any foreign influence close to
the heart of Iran would be a strategic weakening of the Iranian State. This could also explain Iran's modern behavior and why Tehran is so interested in Iraq. True, beyond geographic reasons explaining the need to dominate Iraq and Syria and have an outlet to the Mediterranean, there are also pure historical precedents. Within the Achaemenid Empire, the borders reached the Mediterranean. And the last time Iranians
were at the sea was the historic moment which I mentioned in the introduction – Khusro II’s near complete devastation of the Byzantines in the 620s. Emil Avdaliani teaches history and international relations at Tbilisi State University and Ilia State University. He has worked for various international consulting companies and currently publishes articles focused on military and political developments across the former Soviet space and the Middle East.
Georgian Journalists Visit Bulgaria, Upcoming President Country of EU Council BY MAKA LOMADZE
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n December 5-8, the Bulgarian Embassy to Georgia organized a tour for Georgian journalists in Sofia, Bulgaria, the aim of which was to introduce them to the country’s preparations as it gets ready to become the President Country of the Council of Europe from January 1 to June 30, 2018. ‘United We Stand Strong’ is the motto of the Bulgarian presidency, while its main goals are to achieve “real results,” following the principles of transparency and accountability. Purportedly, the Bulgarian Presidency will be an honest broker and will seek “consensus, compromise and understanding” among EU member States to take decisions and adopt legislation. It will also encourage partnerships on all levels through unity and mutual cooperation. The Bulgarian Presidency will work strongly in the field of youth and security, taking into consideration the complex nature of the challenges the EU faces. The specific focus will be on the European perspective and connectivity of the Western Balkans. Bulgaria
10 Galaktion Street
believes that it will achieve these goals through consensus, competitiveness and cohesion. In short, the Bulgarians are confident that Europe needs more stability, security and solidarity. One of the most interesting meetings happened at the Atlantic Club, where the subject of Georgia entering NATO was raised. Elena Poptodorova, Director for Euro-Atlantic Affairs in the Atlantic Club of Bulgaria, former Ambassador of Bulgaria to the US, answered: “The brief answer to this question will be yes. Maybe NATO would not like to take a country with such internal division because the issue will become the problem of the organization itself. But that’s the principle. It can be seen in Macedonia. Most important is to see consensus in the government; after that, keep on at Brussels to let you in! Constantine Popov, Chairman of the Defense Committee, met the Georgian journalists to talk about the constitutional and legal powers of the Defense Committee of the National Assembly of the Republic of Bulgaria. Plamen Bonchev, Director General for Global Affairs of MFA, former Ambassador of Bulgaria to Georgia, talked about the Bulgarian Development Cooperation Policy and
Bulgarian Human Rights Policy. The Georgian correspondents were also taken to the Military Medical Academy and Ministry of the Bulgarian Presidency of the Council of EU. “There are very deep historical ties between Bulgaria and Georgia, which represent a good basis for the current bilateral relations in all directions,” Georgi Panayotov, Head of Caucasus and Central Asia Department of MFA, noted. Journalists from Georgia also visited the Information Center to the Ministry of Defense of Bulgaria, and listened to the criteria on training disciplines on military contribution to EU Disaster Response, Humanitarian Assistance and Civil Protection. As an informal part of the visit, the organizers took the Georgian media representatives to the National Gallery, which was a thorough excursion into the Bulgarian history of art as well as into other cultures related to and assimilated inside the country.
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