Page 1

5

Daily Market Note

Bloomberg: GNCP <GO> www.genghis-capital.com

th

7 October 2012

Equities Distribution Suppresses Bourse… Equity turnover opened the week with a 62% decrease as the NSE 20 Share Index lost 4.11 points to close the day at 3971.68. The FTSE 15 and 25 indexes echoed the same sentiments as they were down 0.52 & 0.49 points respectivelywhile the NASI was also down 65bps. Foreign investors maintained long position resulting to a net inflow of Kes0.526Mn as local investors dominated the market at 74% of total turnover. Market capitalisation was largely flat at Kes.1.15Bn. On the regional front, trading in the Uganda Securities Exchange has been put on hold until Friday 12 th October due to the office relocation of the regulator. "We don't have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest." - Warren Buffett The highlights of the day’s trading activity are listed below: Table 1: NSE Performance

Table 2: NSE Indices

Market Indices Summary

Top Traders Equity

Volume

Index

Previous

Today

% change

87.54

86.97

-0.65%

Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd

1,980,400

NASI

Equity Bank Ltd

1,724,600

NSE 20 Share

3975.79

3971.68

-0.10%

Kenya Airways Ltd

1,130,600

FTSE NSE 15

116.02

115.50

-0.45%

FTSE NSE 25 Source: NSE

118.71

118.22

-0.41%

Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd

771,800

The Co-operative Bank Ltd

689,300

Gaining Stocks Equity

Price (KES)

% Change

Express (K) Ltd

4.20

5.00

Unga Group Ltd

13.00

4.42

Housing Finance Ltd

15.10

3.42

Olympia Capital Holdings

3.40

3.03

Eveready EA Ltd

1.70

3.03

Losing Stocks Equity

Price (KES)

% Change

B.O.C Kenya Ltd

102.00

-8.93

Crown Paints Kenya Ltd

35.00

-7.89

CFC Stanbic (K) Ltd

38.00

-3.80

British American Inv. Ltd

6.20

-3.13

Rea Vipingo Plantations Ltd

16.50

-2.94

The Advance/Decline ratio at the close of today’s trading session stood at 13/17 with 13 stocks advancing in price and 17 shedding prices. Foreign investor participation descended to 26% in today’s trading compared to 73% at the close of Friday’s session. Today’s session resulted in a net inflow of Kes.0.526Mn compared to a net inflow of Kes.15.7Mn at the close of the previous trading session. The highest foreign investor turnover was recorded on Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd (NSE: KCB)–Kes.15Mn and Kenya Airways Ltd (NSE: KQ)–Kes.11.7Mn. The 2 counters accounted for 17.13% and 67.13% of the total NSE and total foreign activity respectively. KenolKobil Ltd (NSE: KENO) recorded the highest net inflow of Kes.1.2Mn. The highest net outflow was recorded on Co-operative Bank Ltd (NSE: COOP) at Kes.1.4Mn.


Daily Market Note Table 3: NSE Summary

5th Oct 2012

8th Oct 2012

% Change

Market Cap. (Kes.Bn)

1158.09

1150.62

-0.65%

Equity T/O: (Kes.Mn)

405.08

150.77

-62.78%

27.13/72.87

74.49/25.51

N/A

22:14

13:17

N/A

3522.70

3100.20

-11.99%

0.00

N/A

0.00%

N/A

Local/Foreign Equity T/O: (%) Advance:Decline Ratio Bond T/O: (Kes.Mn)

Sell/Buy Back Transactions T/O: 400.00 (Mn) Sell/Buy Back Transactions (% of 11.35% Total Bond T/O) Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Estimates

Table 4: Foreign Equity Turnover

Foreign Investor Equity Turnover th

8th October 2012

5 October 2012 Buys (Kes) 160,211,732.50 Net Inflow/(Outflow) Position

Sales (Kes)

Buys (Kes)

144,528,152.50

Sales (Kes)

20,119,055.00 Net Inflow/(Outflow) Position

15,683,580.00

19,592,812.50 526,242.50

Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Dealers

The Investment sector was up 1.06% to the top spot, boosted by the performances of Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd (NSE: OCH) +3.03% to VWAP 3.40. The total index performance depreciated 0.18% on the back of seven segments posting losses. The Construction & Allied sector occupied the bottom spot again losing 1.31% dragged down by Crown Berger Kenya Ltd (NSE: BERG) which shed 3.49% to close at a VWAP of Kes.35.00. Table 5: Daily Segmental Price Performance Analysis

Sector

Constituents

Price Performance (% Change)

Investment

4

1.06

Automobiles & Accessories Commercial & Services

4 9

Energy & Petroleum

4

0.67 0.62 -0.15

Manufacturing & Allied

9

-0.21

Agriculture

7

-0.29

Banking

10

-0.37

Insurance

6

-0.69

Telecommunication & Technology

2

-1.14

Construction & Allied

5

-1,31

Total Index Source: NSE & Genghis Capital

60

-0.18

2


Daily Market Note Trading Ideas: The table below shows the performance of selected stocks that Genghis Capital recommended in the year. Table 6: Equity Picks (Fig in KES) Price at 12 Month Recommendation Target Price

Company

Current Price

Upside Potential

Return to Date

Recommendation

Centum Investments Ltd

14.55

19.55

11.95

38.87%

-17.87%

BUY

Equity Bank Limited

15.80

19.90

23.25

-16.83%

47.15%

KenolKobil Limited

9.80

16.90

15.00

11.24%

53.06%

NIC Bank Limited

26.50

45.50

35.50

21.98%

33.96% -6.36%

SELL HOLD BUY BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY HOLD

EA Cables Ltd

11.80

14.55

11.05

24.05%

Athi River Mining Ltd

156.00

198.50

227.00

-14.36%

45.51%

Diamond Trust Bank Ltd

88.50

123.40

115.00

6.81%

29.94%

KCB Group Ltd

18.50

27.10

28.00

-3.32%

51.35%

Uchumi Supermarkets Ltd

7.20

17.25

18.35

-6.38%

154.86%

Kenya Power & Lighting Co.

15.85

22.00

17.90

18.64%

12.93%

153.00

197.70

212.00

-7.23%

38.56%

4.00

6.25

6.20

0.80%

55.00%

Bamburi Cement Limited

168.00

201.00

167.00

16.92%

-0.60%

Cooperative Bank Limited

11.55

18.50

11.90

35.68%

3.03%

Kenya Reinsurance Corp.

10.05

15.35

12.00

21.82%

19.40%

Nation Media Group Ltd British American Investments

KenGen Ltd Jubilee Holdings Ltd

8.30

16.25

8.65

46.77%

4.22%

163.00

186.00

165.00

11.29%

1.23%

Housing Finance Ltd

13.65

27.00

15.10

44.07%

10.62%

Scangroup Ltd

49.25

59.60

57.50

3.52%

16.75%

Portfolio Return

HOLD HOLD BUY BUY BUY HOLD BUY HOLD

29.09%

Source: Genghis Capital Ltd

Fixed Income: Yields Uptick Sustained! Money Markets: The CBK was active in today’s session to mop up Kes.7Bn in excess liquidity through repurchase agreements and TADs as the interbank rate slipped to 8.8302%. Primary Markets: The 182-Day T-Bill will be auctioned on Wednesday 10th October with the 91-Day TBill being auctioned the following day. The government will be seeking to raise KES.4Bn from each. The CBK will offer a 2-Yr bond worth up to Kes.12Bn in the month with the deadline on 23rd October. Secondary Markets: Bond turnover shot down 12% to Kes.3.1Bn driven by Fixed Rate Treasury Bonds that transacted Kes.1.2Bn; 39% of the total Bond turnover. Table 7: Short -Term Interest Rates, Treasury Notes & CD’s Tenor

Kenya

Uganda

Tanzania

U.S

LIBOR (USD)

91 Day

8.09%

9.67%

12.45%

0.09%

0.35%

182 Day

9.89%

10.66%

13.01%

0.13%

0.63%

1 Year

10.57%

10.69%

13.76%

0.15%

0.97%

2 Year

11.11%

14.84%

13.81%

0.23%

--

5 Year

11.86%

13.91%

14.49%

0.61%

--

10 Year

12.71%

15.28%

14.99%

1.62%

--

Source: CBK, BOU, BOT, US Treasury, BBA, Genghis Capital

3


Daily Market Note Currency: KES Remains Stableâ&#x20AC;Ś Performance: The shilling opened the week on strong footing as it edged upwards against the major currencies. The largest gain was in the ZAR/KES pair up 2.216% with the trend followed in the KES/TZS gaining 0.85%. Current liquidity mop ups and tea export inflows expected as the week progresses will boost the KES. Table 8: Currency Rate

USD/KES

5th Oct 2012 85.00

8th Oct 2012 84.92

GBP/KES

137.65

136.78

EUR/KES

110.61

110.28

ZAR/KES

9.89

9.67

KES/UGX

30.05

30.27

KES/TZS

18.38

18.54

Currency Pair

INR/KES Source: Bloomberg 4.00pm E.A.T, Genghis Est.

1.64 th

27 Jan 2012

1.63 th

30 Jan 2012

Technical Analysis and Outlook: The chart exhibits the Psychological Line of the USDKES pair over the past 3 years. The currency pair has enjoyed support from the regulator to keep Estimatesit at below the 85 level on average.

4


Daily Market Note Genghis Index:

Table 9: Genghis Index Performance

Large-Cap Index

The index shed 0.45% while Market Capitalisation was down to Kes.935.8Bn. The best performing counter in this segment was Athi River Mining Ltd (NSE: ARM) up 1.79%. Losing by the biggest margin in this segment was CFC Stanbic (K) Ltd (NSE: CFC) shedding 3.80%. Mid-Cap Index

The Index lost 0.44% over Fridayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s close as Market Capitalisation declined Kes.144.6Bn. This sectionâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s best performer was Housing Finance Company (K) Ltd (NSE: HFCK) up 3.42%. Losing by the biggest margin was B.O.C (K) Ltd (NSE: BOC) down 8.93%. Small-Cap Index Source: Genghis Capital

D

Price performance gained 0.43% capitalization stable at Kes.13Bn.

with

market

Gaining by the biggest margin was Express Kenya Ltd (NSE: XPRS) up 5.00%. Losing by the biggest margin was Crown Paints (K) Ltd (NSE: BERG) shedding 7.89%.

5


Daily Market Note

GENGHIS LARGE CAP MARKET SEGMENT Safaricom Ltd Ord 0.05

Total Shares Outstanding

Mkt Cap. Kshs Mn.

Total Shares Traded

Price Change

EPS

DPS

P/E

Dividend Yield - %

40,000,000,000

160,000,000,000

582,900

-1.23%

0.32

0.22

12.50

5.50%

790,774,356

183,459,650,592

56,400

-1.28%

13.46

8.75

17.24

3.77%

Equity Bank Ltd Ord 0.50

3,702,777,020

86,089,565,715

1,724,600

-1.06%

2.79

1.00

8.33

4.30%

Barclays Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 0.50

5,431,536,000

75,769,927,200

204,000

-2.79%

1.49

1.50

9.36

10.75%

Bamburi Cement Ltd Ord 5.00

362,959,275

60,614,198,925

0

0.00%

14.44

10.00

11.57

5.99%

Standard Chartered Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

287,077,133

61,434,506,462

10,000

0.94%

19.75

11.00

10.84

5.14%

The Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00

3,492,369,900

41,559,201,810

689,300

-0.42%

1.53

0.40

7.78

3.36%

Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd Ord 1.00

2,950,259,818

82,607,274,904

771,800

0.00%

3.72

1.85

7.53

6.61%

KenGen Co. Ltd Ord. 2.50

2,198,361,456

19,015,826,594

142,900

0.00%

1.28

0.60

6.76

6.94%

British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd Ord 10.00

100,000,000

44,400,000,000

11,700

0.91%

30.98

30.50

14.33

6.87%

Nation Media Group Ltd Ord. 2.50

157,118,572

33,309,137,264

8,200

0.00%

12.70

8.00

16.69

3.77%

CFC Stanbic of Kenya Holdings Ltd ord.5.00

273,684,211

10,400,000,018

200

-3.80%

5.99

0.00

6.34

0.00%

Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00

461,615,483

5,423,981,925

1,130,600

0.00%

3.58

0.25

3.28

2.13%

1,530,000,000

9,409,500,000

1,980,400

0.00%

1.32

0.50

4.66

8.13%

Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 4.00

163,037,108

18,749,267,420

1,600

-0.86%

13.58

1.70

8.47

1.48%

Kenya Power & Lighting Co Ltd Ord 2.50

633,024,000

11,331,129,600

286,400

-0.28%

2.16

0.45

8.29

2.51%

99,055,000

22,485,485,000

10,000

1.79%

11.63

2.00

19.52

0.88%

358,997,784

12,744,421,332

44,300

0.00%

6.72

0.50

5.28

1.41%

938,803,074,762

7,655,300

-0.45%

8.19

4.40

9.93

4.42%

East African Breweries Ltd Ord 2.00

Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd Ord 2.00

Athi River Mining Ord 5.00 NIC Bank Ltd Ord 5.00

GENGHIS MID CAP MARKET SEGMENT Centum Investment Co Ltd Ord 0.50

604,947,068

7,229,117,463

44,000

0.00%

1.79

0.00

6.68

0.00%

KenolKobil Ltd Ord 0.05

1,471,761,200

22,076,418,000

229,000

0.00%

2.21

1.00

6.79

6.67%

Scangroup Ltd Ord 1.00

284,789,128

16,375,374,860

48,800

0.00%

2.55

0.70

22.55

1.22%

National Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

280,000,000

5,040,000,000

771,800

0.84%

3.19

0.40

5.64

2.22%

90,000,000

4,342,500,000

0

0.00%

6.24

0.50

7.73

1.04%

148,210,640

5,891,372,940

2,400

0.00%

4.51

1.30

8.81

3.27%

54,450,000

8,984,250,000

6,900

-0.60%

33.00

4.50

5.00

2.73%

CMC Holdings Ltd Ord 0.50

582,709,440

7,866,577,440

0

0.00%

-0.31

0.00

-43.55

0.00%

Kenya Re Insurance Corporation Ltd Ord 2.50

600,000,000

7,200,000,000

62,200

-0.41%

3.19

0.35

3.76

2.92%

Housing Finance Co.Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

235,750,000

3,559,825,000

96,900

3.42%

2.70

1.20

5.59

7.95%

Total Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

175,028,706

2,616,679,155

9,100

-0.33%

3.05

0.00

4.90

0.00%

Carbacid Investments Ltd Ord 5.00

33,980,265

4,179,572,595

0

0.00%

8.89

5.00

13.84

4.07%

Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

96,000,000

3,480,000,000

2,900

0.00%

2.31

1.00

15.69

2.76%

E.A.Cables Ltd Ord 0.50

253,125,000

2,797,031,250

85,800

-0.45%

1.15

1.00

9.61

9.05%

AccessKenya Group Ltd Ord. 1.00

208,084,296

988,400,406

12,600

-1.04%

0.53

0.00

8.96

0.00%

74,059,026

1,758,901,868

0

0.00%

2.96

0.00

8.02

0.00%

British-American Investments Co (Kenya) Ltd Ord 0.10

2,150,000,000

13,330,000,000

104,300

-3.13%

-1.09

0.15

-5.69

2.42%

CIC Insurance Group Ltd ord.1.00

2,179,615,440

8,064,577,128

448,000

0.00%

0.27

0.09

17.59

1.89%

Uchumi Supermarket Ltd Ord 5.00

265,424,636

4,870,542,071

59,200

0.55%

1.47

0.00

12.48

0.00%

Trans-Century Ltd Ord 0.50 AIMS

273,950,284

5,752,955,964

6,700

1.20%

1.23

0.25

17.07

1.19%

CFC Insurance Holdings Ltd ord.1.00

515,270,364

3,606,892,548

43,200

0.00%

1.84

0.00

3.80

0.00%

Sasini Ltd Ord 1.00

228,055,500

2,599,832,700

14,400

0.88%

1.72

1.00

6.63

8.77%

19,525,446

1,991,595,492

200

-8.93%

7.71

6.80

13.23

6.67%

144,602,416,878

2,048,400

-0.44%

3.96

1.10

6.75

2.82%

E.A.Portland Cement Co. Ltd Ord 5.00 TPS Eastern Africa Ltd Ord 1.00 Jubilee Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

Standard Group Ltd Ord 5.00

B.O.C Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

GENGHIS SMALL CAP MARKET SEGMENT 278,342,393

1,071,618,213

1,000

2.67%

0.35

0.20

11.00

5.19%

Williamson Tea Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

Sameer Africa Ltd Ord 5.00

8,756,320

1,751,264,000

100

0.00%

93.74

57.50

2.13

28.75%

Kakuzi Ltd Ord.5.00

19,599,999

1,411,199,928

0

0.00%

28.06

3.75

2.57

5.21%

Rea Vipingo Plantations Ltd Ord 5.00

60,000,000

990,000,000

900

-2.94%

7.79

1.10

2.12

6.67%

Car & General (K) Ltd Ord 5.00

22,279,616

556,990,400

0

0.00%

7.78

0.55

3.21

2.20%

Unga Group Ltd Ord 5.00

75,708,873

984,215,349

2,800

4.42%

2.81

0.75

4.63

5.77%

Crown Paints Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

23,727,000

830,445,000

16,800

-7.89%

5.44

1.25

6.43

3.57%

Eveready East Africa Ltd Ord.1.00

210,000,000

357,000,000

10,600

3.03%

-0.59

-

-2.88

0.00%

Eaagads Ltd Ord 1.25 AIMS

16,078,500

884,317,500

0

0.00%

1.36

1.25

40.44

2.27%

City Trust Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

5,728,314

1,976,268,330

44,000

0.00%

6.12

4.00

56.37

1.16%

Longhorn Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00 AIMS Kapchorua Tea Co. Ltd Ord Ord 5.00 AIMS

58,500,000 3,912,000

666,900,000 489,000,000

0 0

0.00% 0.00%

2.33 19.93

1.50 7.50

4.89 6.27

13.16% 6.00%

The Limuru Tea Co. Ltd Ord 20.00 AIMS

1,200,000

540,000,000

0

0.00%

33.70

7.50

13.35

1.67%

Express Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

35,403,790

148,695,918

2,000

5.00%

-6.47

-

-0.65

0.00%

Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

40,000,000

136,000,000

4,800

3.03%

0.38

0.10

8.95

2.94%

Marshalls (E.A.) Ltd Ord 5.00

14,393,106

187,110,378

0

0.00%

-11.80

-

-1.10

0.00%

Kenya Orchards Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

12,868,124

38,604,372 13,019,629,388

0 83,000

0.00% 0.43%

0.04 11.23

5.11

75.00 13.69

0.00% 4.97%

6


Daily Market Note

Contacts Report By: Moses Waireri,Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: mwaireri@genghis-capital.com Report By: Evelyne Wanjiku, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: ewanjiku@genghis-capital.com Anthony Kimani, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: akimani@genghis-capital.com Carol Matu, Head Dealer | Tel: +254 20 2774789 | Email: cmatu@genghis-capital.com Gachanja Weru, Fixed Income Dealer| Tel:+25420 2774756 | Email: gweru@genghis-capital.com George Guy,Fixed Income Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774756| Mob: +254 727 142231 | Email: gguy@genghis-capital.com Nyawira Waithaka, Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774777 | Mob: +254 723 693481 | Email: nwaithaka@genghis-capital.com Andrew Maina, Senior Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774789 | Mob: +254 722 667936 | Email: amaina@genghis-capital.com Disclaimer: The content provided on this document is provided as general information and does not constitute advice or recommendation by Genghis Capital Ltd and should not be relied upon for investment decisions or any other matter and that this document does not constitute a distribution recommending the purchase or sale of any security or portfolio. Please note that past performance is no indication of future results. The ideas expressed in the document are solely the opinions of the author at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Although the author has made every effort to provide accurate information at the date of publication all information available in this report is provided without any express or implied warranty of any kind as to its correctness. You should consult your own independent financial adviser to obtain professional advice before exercising any decisions based on the information present in this document. Any action that you take as a result of this information, analysis, or advertisement is ultimately your responsibility.

Genghis Capital Ltd, Prudential Assurance Building, Wabera Street, Nairobi. Tel: +254 20 2774760Fax: +254 20 246334 7

Genghis Daily Market Note 8th October 2012  

Equity turnover opened the week with a 62% decrease as the NSE 20 Share Index lost 4.11 points to close the day at 3971.68. The FTSE 15 and...

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