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Weekly Market Monitor - No. 43/2012

Weekly Market Monitor - No. 01

Genghis Capital Research: Equities, Fixed Income, Currency, Commodities

Genghis Capital Research: Equities, Fixed Income, Currency, Commodities Themes: Momentum Building, Yield Upturn, Transmission of Global Uncertainty & Risks... 

Equities: Rally Extends Past 4,100…

3

Fixed Income: Yield Uptick to Sustain…

8

Currency: KES Supported by Tea Bonus Payments…

11

Commodities: US Economic Data Supports Oil…

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Weekly Market Monitor - No. 43

Executive Summary Themes: Momentum Building, Yield Upturn, Transmission of Global Uncertainty & Risks... 

Equities: Rally Extends Past 4,100… The NSE 20 Share index closed at 4,132.91 breaching the 4,100 mark in the week. Our next resistance level to be tested will be 4,300. The other indices closed north as well garnering an average of 2.50%. Improved accumulation activities were the drive behind the increased momentum of the bourse with local investors increasing their participation at 43%. Equity Turnover surged to Kes.2.7Bn; a 38% jump.

Fixed Income: Yield Uptick to Sustain…The 91 and 182 Day T-bills were undersubscribed while the 2-Yr Treasury Bond was oversubscribed at 209%.

Currency: KES Supported by Tea Bonus Payments… The KES was relatively stable in the week as the national currency’s largest gains were in the ZAR/KES pair up 0.90% and KES/TZS pair up 0.05%.The largest slip was recorded in the INR/KES pair -1.42% with the sentiment echoed in the GBP/KES pair down 0.96%.

Commodities: US Economic Data Supports Oil…Brent Crude lost 0.50% for the week as rising crude oil inventories in the US weighted on prices and limited Friday’s gain for US Crude contracts. Brent December Crude rose to USD 1.06 to settle at USD 109.55.

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Weekly Market Monitor - No. 43

Equities: Rally Extends Past 4,100… The NSE 20 Share index closed at 4,132.91 breaching the 4,100 mark in the week. Our next resistance level to be tested will be 4,300. The other indices closed north as well garnering an average of 2.50%. Improved accumulation activities were the drive behind the increased momentum of the bourse with local investors increasing their participation at 43%. Equity Turnover surged to Kes.2.7Bn; a 38% jump. This informed the increase of investors’ wealth to Kes.1.2Tn. Investors are bullish on the Banking sector financial results after KCB posted more than 40% jump in PAT. "All intelligent investing is value investing -- acquiring more that you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock." -Charlie Munger, Business Magnate, Vice Chair Berkshire Hathaway and Investor. This week’s trading highlights are summarized below: Table 1: NSE Performance

Table 2: NSE Index Performance, Turnover

Gaining Stocks Equity Price (KES) BOC Kenya Ltd 110.00 Barclays Bank of Kenya Ltd 15.60 KenGen Ltd 9.25 Marshalls E.A Ltd 14.00 Centum Investments Ltd 13.00

% Change 7.84% 7.59% 6.94% 6.87% 6.12%

Losing Stocks Equity Price (KES) Eaagads Ltd 40.50 Olympia Capital Holdings 3.40 TPS East African Ltd 36.75 Williamson Tea Kenya Ltd 200.00 Kapchorua Tea Co. Ltd 120.00

% Change -18.18% -5.56% -5.16% -4.76% -4.00%

Index NASI

Market Summary Previous Today 89.13 91.18

NSE 20 Share FTSE NSE 15

4034.07 118.68

4132.91 122.59

2.45% 3.29%

FTSE NSE 25

121.25

125.14

3.21%

% change 2.30%

Top Traders Equity Equity Bank Ltd Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd Safaricom Ltd Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd

Volume 21,070,900 10,392,200 10,007,500 8,952,400 6,818,400

NSE 20 Share Index, Equity Turnover

Chart 2: Captures the trend of the Nairobi Stock Exchange – NSE 20 Share Index vs. Equity Turnover. Momentum has seen the NSE 20 breach the 4,100 level; next resistance target is 4,300.

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Weekly Market Monitor - No. 43 Table 3: NSE Performance

Market Cap. (Kes.Bn) Equity T/O: (Kes.Mn) Bond T/O: (Kes.Mn)

Week 42 1,176.27 1,972.75 11,633.50

Week 43 1,210.54 2,713.10 15,646.10

% Change 2.91% 37.53% 34.49%

Source: NSE, Genghis Capital

Our weekly segmental analysis (Table 4) shows the improvement in market performance this week with nine sectors gaining value versus only one sector shedding. The market as a whole marginally gained 0.87% with these developments.

The Banking segment was the best performing this week gaining 2.76%. This performance was largely due to Barclays Bank of Kenya Ltd (NSE: BBK) gaining 7.59% to VWAP Kes.15.60.

The Agricultural segment was stuck at the bottom down 2.53% pulled down by EaagadsLtd (NSE: EGDS) which was down 18.18% to close at Kes.40.50.

NSE Segment Performance Table 4: Weekly Segmental Price Performance Analysis

Sector Banking Automobiles & Accessories Telecommunication & Technology Construction & Allied Energy & Petroleum Investment Manufacturing & Allied Insurance Commercial & Services Agriculturals

Constituents 10 4 2 5 4 4 9 6 9 7 60

% change 2.76% 2.13% 1.91% 1.33% 0.90% 0.72% 0.63% 0.63% 0.23% -2.53% 0.87%

Source: NSE & Genghis Capital

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Weekly Market Monitor - No. 43

NSE P/E Analysis 

Only two sectors closed in the value territory in the week. The Advance/Decline ratio exhibited an investors’ buying sentiment at 30/16. Table 5: NSE P/E Analysis

Sector

Constituents

Sector P/E Sector P/E % Change Week 42 Week 43 3.97 3.88 -2.27% NM NM NM 8.48 8.71 2.71% 9.03 9.30 2.99% 12.27 12.53 2.12% 7.27 7.39 1.65% 10.99 11.05 0.55%

Agricultural Automobiles & Accessories Banking Commercial & Services Construction & Allied Energy & Petroleum Insurance

7 4 10 9 5 4 6

Investment

4

9.98

10.32

3.41%

Manufacturing & Allied

9

15.41

15.37

-0.26%

Telecommunication & Technology Main Market P/E

2 60

13.08 10.08

13.86 10.50

5.96% 4.17%

Source: NSE

Foreign Investor Activity 

Total foreign investor equity turnover as a percentage of the total NSE turnover increased to 57.84% this week compared to 53.66% at the close of the previous week.

Total net inflows at the end of the week stood at Kes.363.578Mn compared to Kes.255.87Mn last week. Table 6: Weekly Foreign Equity Turnover Summary (Fig in KES)

Day

Buy

Mon

190,994,500.00

Foreign Equity Turnover Net Inflows Sell (Outflows) 78,538,882.50 112,455,617.50

Tue

247,089,787.50

178,750,365.00

68,339,422.50

648,560,842.00

65.66%

Wed

236,334,132.50

157,055,632.50

79,278,500.00

600,505,228.00

65.51%

Thur

51,586,287.50

22,611,847.50

28,974,440.00

254,016,303.00

29.21%

Fri

240,348,105.00

165,818,007.50

74,530,097.50

655,853,932.00

61.93%

TOTAL

966,352,812.50

602,774,735.00

363,578,077.50

2,713,103,214.00

57.84%

Total NSE Turnover 554,166,909.00

Foreign T/O (% of Total NSE (T/O) 48.64%

Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Dealers

Foreign Turnover on the top 5 traded counters accounted for 50.8% of the total weekly foreign investor activity at the close of Week43 compared to 45.4% in Week 42.

The purchase activity on these counters accounted for 85.3% of the total foreign buying activity on the NSE this week. The most actively bought counter was East African BreweriesLtd (NSE: EABL).

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Weekly Market Monitor - No. 43 Table 7: Top 5 Foreign Traded Counters - Week 43 (Fig in KES)

Buy

Sell

Net Inflows (Outflows)

Total Weekly Turnover

East African Breweries Ltd

355,870,650.00

190,149,000.00

165,721,650.00

546,019,650.00

Equity Bank Ltd

197,716,862.50

224,636,462.50

-26,919,600.00

422,353,325.00

CFC Stanbic Kenya Limited

93,660,500.00

93,779,150.00

-118,650.00

187,439,650.00

Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd

127,864,975.00

46,129,275.00

81,735,700.00

173,994,250.00

British American Tobacco (K) Ltd

49,087,750.00

0.00

49,087,750.00

49,087,750.00

824,200,737.50

554,693,887.50

269,506,850.00

1,378,894,625.00

Equity

TOTAL

Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Dealers

Trading Ideas: The table below shows the performance of selected stocks that Genghis Capital recommended so far in the year 2012. Table 8: Equity Picks (Fig in KES)

Company Centum Investments Ltd

Price at Recommendation 14.55

12 Month Current Price Target Price 19.55 13.00

Upside Potential 33.50%

Return to Date -10.65%

Equity Bank Limited

15.80

19.90

23.50

-18.09%

48.73%

KenolKobil Limited NIC Bank Limited EA Cables Ltd Athi River Mining Ltd Diamond Trust Bank Ltd KCB Group Ltd Uchumi Supermarkets Ltd Kenya Power & Lighting Co. Nation Media Group Ltd British American Investments Bamburi Cement Ltd Cooperative Bank Limited Kenya Reinsurance Corp. KenGen Ltd Jubilee Holdings Ltd Housing Finance Ltd Scangroup Ltd Portfolio Return

9.80 26.50 11.80 156.00 88.50 18.50 7.20 15.85 153.00 4.00 168.00 11.55 10.05 8.30 163.00 13.65 49.25

16.90 45.50 14.55 220.00 123.40 27.10 17.25 22.00 197.70 6.25 201.00 18.50 15.35 16.25 186.00 27.00 59.60

14.30 36.50 11.00 227.00 120.00 30.00 19.45 18.50 220.00 6.25 170.00 12.70 12.45 9.25 166.00 15.75 60.00

15.38% 19.78% 24.40% -3.18% 2.76% -10.70% -12.75% 15.91% -11.28% 0.00% 15.42% 31.35% 18.89% 43.08% 10.75% 41.67% -0.67%

45.92% 37.74% -6.78% 45.51% 35.59% 62.16% 170.14% 16.72% 43.79% 56.25% 1.19% 9.96% 23.88% 11.45% 1.84% 15.38% 21.83% 33.19%

Recommendation

BUY SELL BUY BUY BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY HOLD HOLD BUY BUY BUY BUY HOLD BUY HOLD

Source: NSE & Genghis Capital

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Weekly Market Monitor - No. 43

Genghis Index: Table 9: Genghis Index Performance Large-Cap Index

Genghis Large-Cap Index Indicator Price Index Performance (%) Market Capitalization (Kes.Bn) No. of Shares Traded (000) P/E Ratio

Previous Current % Change 0.91% 2.24% N/A 1020.142 1045.735 2.51% 68,843 79,715 15.79% 10.15x 10.34x N/A

Genghis Mid-Cap Index Indicator Previous Price Index Performance (%) 1.22% Market Capitalization (Kes.Bn) 136.165 No. of Shares Traded (000) 19,196 P/E Ratio 6.59x

Genghis Small-Cap Index Indicator Previous Price Index Performance -0.27% Market Capitalization (Kes.Bn) 14.165 No. of Shares Traded (000) 455 P/E Ratio 12.58x

Current 1.57% 137.867 18,806 6.58x

Today -1.14% 13.902 329 10.43x

% Change N/A 1.25% -2.03% N/A

% Change N/A -1.86% -27.80% N/A

The index appreciated a massive 2.24% in terms of price performance with market capitalization following suit to Kes. 1,045Bn.

Barclays Bank of Kenya Ltd (NSE: BBK) was the segment’s best performing counter +7.59% - VWAP Kes.15.60; a new high in 14 months.

CfC Stanbic Holdings Bank Ltd (NSE: CFC) closed 0.65% lower at VWAP Kes.38.

Mid-Cap Index 

Price performance extended its upward trajectory +1.57% this week with market capitalization at Kes.138Bn.

B.O.C Kenya Ltd (NSE: BOC) was the segment’s best performer up 7.84% - VWAP Kes.110.

TPS East African Ltd (NSE: TPSE) was the sector’s worst performing stock shedding 5.16% to close with a VWAP of Kes.36.75.

Small-Cap Index 

Marshalls EA Ltd (NSE: MARS) was the segment’s best performer advancing 6.87% to VWAP Kes.14.

Eaagads Ltd (NSE: EGAD) was the worst performing stock -18.18% VWAP Kes.40.50.

Table 10: Investors’ Diary

Date 30th October

Firm/Body CFC

Description Payment Interim Dividend Kes.0.73

30th October 31st October 31st October 1st November 2nd November S 2nd November S

KQ CBK CITY CBK MSC KNBS

Payment First & Final Dividend Kes.0.25 182-Day T-Bill Auction Payment Interim Dividend Kes.6.00 91-Day T-Bill Books Closure; 1st & Final Dividend Kes.0.50 October CPI Release

0

Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Source: NSE & Genghis Capital

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Weekly Market Monitor - No. 43

Fixed Income: Yield Uptick to Sustain… 

Money Markets: Data from the CBK indicated that the average interbank rate closed the week lower at 9.32% compared to 9.47% at the close of the previous week.

Primary Markets: The results of the 91-Day, 182-Day T-Bills auctions as well as the results of the 2-Yr Treasury bond for this week are shown below. The regulator intends to raise Kes.7Bn in the coming week as it auctions the 91 and 182-Day T-Bills. Table 11: Week 43 Auction Results

Weighted Avg. Rate Tenor Last 91 Day 9.437% 182 Day 10.484% 2-yr T-Bond 11.114%

Latest 9.945% 10.761% 12.496%

Change (bps) 50.80 27.70 138.20

Subscription Rate 68%* 40 %* 209%*

Source: CBK, Genghis Capital

*absolute terms

Secondary Markets: Bond Turnover closed 34% higher despite decreased participation as 167 transactions occurred in the week compared to 206 last week. The IFBs accounted for 46% of the total turnover at Kes.7.182Bn in 60 trades. Specifically the IFB 1/2011/12Yr paper was dominant trading Kes.6.405Bn in 47 deals; 41% of Total Bond Turnover. Table 7: Short -Term Interest Rates, Treasury Notes & CD’s Tenor

Kenya

Uganda

Tanzania

U.S

LIBOR (USD)

91 Day

9.95%

9.67%

12.45%

0.11%

0.35%

182 Day

10.76%

10.66%

13.01%

0.15%

0.62%

1 Year

10.57%

10.69%

13.76%

0.18%

0.95%

2 Year

12.50%

14.84%

13.81%

0.27%

--

5 Year

11.86%

13.91%

14.49%

0.67%

--

10 Year

12.71%

15.28%

14.99%

1.69%

--

Source: CBK, BOU, BOT, US Treasury, BBA, Genghis Capital

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Weekly Market Monitor - No. 43 Table 13: Fixed Income Gross Cash-Flows for the Months of October, November and December:

Issue No. Govies

Cash Flow

Due Date*

Issued Amount

Coupon (%)

FXD 1/2012/2

C

29-Oct-2012

6,468.62

13.826%

447.18

FXD 2/2010/10

C

29-Oct-2012

14,462.47

9.307%

673.01

FXD 2/2006/6

C+P

19-Nov-2012

5,767.45

11.50%

6,099.08

FXD 1/2010/5

C

19-Nov-2012

11,924.85

6.951%

414.45

FXD 2/2006/10

C

19-Nov-2012

5,028.10

14.00%

351.97

FXD 1/ 2007/12

C

19-Nov-2012

4,864.20

13.00%

316.17

FXD 3/2007/15

C

19-Nov-2012

18,030.20

12.50%

1,126.89

FXD 4/2011/2

C

26-Nov-2012

10,500.00

22.844%

1,199.31

FXD 2/2010/5

C

26-Nov-2012

14,973.10

6.671%

499.43

FXD 1/2012/5

C

26-Nov-2012

4,905.55

11.855%

290.78

FXD 1/2011/20

C

26-Nov-2012

9,365.20

10.00%

468.26

FXD 2/2006/7

C

17-Dec-2012

2,317.95

12.00%

139.08

FXD 2/2007/15

C

17-Dec-2012

7,236.95

13.50%

488.49

FXD 1/2012/10

C

24-Dec-2012

445.60

12.705%

28.31

FXD 2/2010/25

C

24-Dec-2012

20,192.50

11.25%

1,135.83

FXD 4/2010/2

C

24-Dec-2012

8,946.20

4.586%

205.14

FXD 1/2011/1

C

24-Dec-2012

10,000.00

21.408%

1,070.40

FXD 2/2010/15

C

24-Dec-2012

7,329.35

9.00%

329.82

FXD 1/2008/20

C

24-Dec-2012

20,360.35

13.75%

1,399.77

Source: CBK, NSE, Genghis Capital Estimates

Gross - MM

C- Coupon, P â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Principal

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Weekly Market Monitor - No. 43

Evolution of the Yield Curve 06/01/2012 to 26/10/2012

NSE Yield Curve â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Emergence of a flat Yield Curve as yields on the Short Term Paper have taken a dip in recent auctions with long dated paper remaining stagnated.

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Weekly Market Monitor - No. 43

Currency KES Supported by Tea Bonus Payments… 

Performance: The KES was relatively stable in the week as the national currency’s largest gains were in the ZAR/KES pair up 0.90% and KES/TZS pair up 0.05%.The largest slip was recorded in the INR/KES pair -1.42% with the sentiment echoed in the GBP/KES pair down 0.96%. There was increased dollar demand but the shilling was still strong as it was supported by liquidity mop ups and tea bonus payments. The EUR was still weakening as Spain’s unemployment rate hit a new high at 25% while a weakening economy in South Africa is pushing the Rand lower. Table 14: Spot & Select Forward Ask Rates

Outright Forward Rates (Ask) USD/KES GBP/KES

Week 42 85.28 136.66

Week 43 85.24 137.98

Annualized Volatility* 1.38%

EUR/KES

110.59

ZAR/KES

Pair/Cross

8.84%

1M 86.31 138.97

2M 86.93 139.98

3M 87.77 141.78

6M 90.26 144.61

110.55

6.69%

111.39

112.24

113.09

116.15

9.89

9.80

10.38%

-

-

-

-

KES/UGX

30.32

30.22

-

-

-

-

KES/TZS

18.59

18.49

8.29% % 8.12%

-

-

-

-

INR/KES

1.57

1.59

10.15%

-

-

-

-

Source: CBK, Bloomberg, Genghis Capital Estimates

*5 Day Annualized

Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Ichimoku chart below outlines the 1-Yr performance of the EURKES currency pair. In majority of the period, the conversion line was below the Base line thus the huge pressure on the EUR. The conversion line recently broke the Base line from below indicating strengthening of the EUR against the KES.

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Weekly Market Monitor - No. 43

Commodities US Economic Data Supports Oilâ&#x20AC;Ś ď&#x201A;§

Oil/Fuel: Brent Crude rose USD 1.06 to settle at USD 109.55 a barrel in light volume trading from USD 107.40 to USD 109.65. In the week Brent dropped 59 cents; a second straight weekly loss. On Friday, Brent rose for the second day recovering from an early decline as supportive US economic data (Q3 up 2% on an annual rate) coupled with North Sea and Nigerian production problems yielded some relief from concerns about Spain and tepid global demand. Hurricane Sandy poses to be the biggest support of the Black gold moving forward as it was heading towards the US East Coast.

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Weekly Market Monitor - No. 43

GENGHIS LARGE CAP MARKET SEGMENT Safaricom Ltd Ord 0.05 East African Breweries Ltd Ord 2.00 Equity Bank Ltd Ord 0.50 Barclays Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 0.50 Bamburi Cement Ltd Ord 5.00 Standard Chartered Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 The Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00 Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd Ord 1.00 KenGen Co. Ltd Ord. 2.50 British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd Ord 10.00 Nation Media Group Ltd Ord. 2.50 CFC Stanbic of Kenya Holdings Ltd ord.5.00 Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00 Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd Ord 2.00 Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 4.00 Kenya Power & Lighting Co Ltd Ord 2.50 Athi River Mining Ord 5.00 NIC Bank Ltd Ord 5.00

GENGHIS MID CAP MARKET SEGMENT Centum Investment Co Ltd Ord 0.50 KenolKobil Ltd Ord 0.05 Scangroup Ltd Ord 1.00 National Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 E.A.Portland Cement Co. Ltd Ord 5.00 TPS Eastern Africa Ltd Ord 1.00 Jubilee Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00 CMC Holdings Ltd Ord 0.50 Kenya Re Insurance Corporation Ltd Ord 2.50 Housing Finance Co.Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 Total Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 Carbacid Investments Ltd Ord 5.00 Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00 E.A.Cables Ltd Ord 0.50 AccessKenya Group Ltd Ord. 1.00 Standard Group Ltd Ord 5.00 British-American Investments Co (Kenya) Ltd Ord 0.10 CIC Insurance Group Ltd ord.1.00 Uchumi Supermarket Ltd Ord 5.00 Trans-Century Ltd Ord 0.50 AIMS Sasini Ltd Ord 1.00 B.O.C Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

GENGHIS SMALL CAP MARKET SEGMENT Sameer Africa Ltd Ord 5.00 Williamson Tea Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS Kakuzi Ltd Ord.5.00 Rea Vipingo Plantations Ltd Ord 5.00 Car & General (K) Ltd Ord 5.00 Unga Group Ltd Ord 5.00 Crown Paints Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 Eveready East Africa Ltd Ord.1.00 Eaagads Ltd Ord 1.25 AIMS City Trust Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS Longhorn Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00 AIMS Kapchorua Tea Co. Ltd Ord Ord 5.00 AIMS The Limuru Tea Co. Ltd Ord 20.00 AIMS Express Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00 Marshalls (E.A.) Ltd Ord 5.00 Kenya Orchards Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

Total Shares Outstanding 40,000,000,000 790,774,356 3,702,777,020 5,431,536,000 362,959,275 287,077,133 4,190,845,080 2,970,249,681 2,198,361,456 100,000,000 157,118,572 273,684,211 1,496,469,034 1,530,000,000 220,100,096 1,951,467,045 99,055,000 394,897,562

Mkt Cap. Kshs Mn. 178,000,000,000 188,995,071,084 87,015,259,970 84,731,961,600 61,703,076,750 64,305,277,792 53,223,732,516 89,107,490,430 20,334,843,468 45,900,000,000 34,566,085,840 10,400,000,018 18,705,862,925 9,333,000,000 26,412,011,520 36,102,140,333 22,485,485,000 14,413,761,013 1,045,735,060,259

Total Shares Traded

Price Change

EPS

DPS

P/E

10,007,500 2,968,600 21,070,900 3,096,400 5,600 108,000 8,952,400 10,392,200 1,999,800 217,200 429,600 4,962,100 3,383,800 6,818,400 416,300 4,089,600 311,100 485,100 79,714,600

5.95% 0.00% -1.05% 7.59% 3.03% 1.82% 0.79% 4.35% 6.94% 1.32% 0.46% -0.65% 4.17% 0.00% 0.00% -0.27% 0.00% 5.80% 2.24%

0.32 13.46 2.79 1.49 14.44 19.75 1.53 3.72 1.28 30.98 12.70 5.99 3.58 1.32 13.58 2.16 11.63 6.72

0.22 8.75 1.00 1.50 10.00 11.00 0.40 1.85 0.60 30.50 8.00 0.00 0.25 0.50 1.70 0.45 2.00 0.50

13.91 17.76 8.42 10.47 11.77 11.34 8.30 8.06 7.23 14.82 17.32 6.34 3.49 4.62 8.84 8.56 19.52 5.43 10.34

Dividend Yield - % 4.94% 3.66% 4.26% 9.62% 5.88% 4.91% 3.15% 6.17% 6.49% 6.64% 3.64% 0.00% 2.00% 8.20% 1.42% 2.43% 0.88% 1.37% 4.20%

665,441,775 1,471,761,200 284,789,128 280,000,000 90,000,000 148,210,640 59,895,000 582,709,440 700,000,000 235,750,000 175,028,706 33,980,265 96,000,000 253,125,000 208,084,296 81,481,478 1,891,451,850 2,179,615,440 265,426,614 273,950,284 228,055,500 19,525,446

8,650,743,075 21,046,185,160 17,087,347,680 5,390,000,000 4,500,000,000 5,446,741,020 9,942,570,000 7,866,577,440 8,715,000,000 3,713,062,500 2,450,401,884 4,077,631,800 3,744,000,000 2,784,375,000 957,187,762 2,077,777,689 11,821,574,063 7,628,654,040 5,162,547,642 0 2,656,846,575 2,147,799,060 137,867,022,389

947,400 2,986,900 228,500 200,300 24,600 41,300 17,600 0 1,130,900 470,600 532,900 7,300 699,500 895,400 1,101,300 4,700 562,600 4,262,200 2,611,100 1,988,400 92,300 100 18,805,900

6.12% 0.70% 1.69% 4.34% 1.01% -5.16% 0.61% 0.00% 3.32% 4.65% -3.78% -0.83% 2.63% 0.00% -2.13% 0.00% -0.79% 0.00% 3.46% 0.00% 4.48% 7.84% 1.57%

1.79 2.21 2.55 3.19 6.24 4.51 33.00 -0.31 3.19 2.70 3.05 11.46 4.62 1.15 0.53 2.96 -1.09 0.27 1.03 1.23 1.72 7.71

0.00 1.00 0.70 0.40 0.50 1.30 4.50 0.00 0.35 1.20 0.00 5.00 2.00 0.80 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.09 0.30 0.25 1.00 6.80

7.26 6.47 23.53 6.03 8.01 8.15 5.03 -43.55 3.90 5.83 4.59 10.47 8.44 9.57 8.68 8.61 -5.73 12.96 18.88 16.67 6.77 14.27 6.58

0.00% 6.99% 1.17% 2.08% 1.00% 3.54% 2.71% 0.00% 2.81% 7.62% 0.00% 4.17% 5.13% 7.27% 0.00% 0.00% 2.40% 2.57% 1.54% 1.22% 8.58% 6.18% 3.04%

278,342,393 8,756,320 19,599,999 60,000,000 33,419,424 75,708,873 23,727,000 210,000,000 32,157,000 5,728,314 58,500,000 3,912,000 1,200,000 35,403,790 40,000,000 14,393,106 12,868,124

1,071,618,213 1,751,264,000 1,469,999,925 1,089,000,000 827,130,744 999,357,124 925,353,000 336,000,000 1,302,358,500 2,022,094,842 585,000,000 469,440,000 540,000,000 138,074,781 136,000,000 201,503,484 38,604,372 13,902,798,985

14,600 3,400 4,600 15,800 13,700 60,500 50,900 76,300 1,800 12,900 8,600 1,100 200 50,800 13,200 100 0 328,500

2.67% -4.76% 4.17% 0.55% -1.00% 0.38% 2.63% -3.03% -18.18% 2.32% 0.00% -4.00% 0.00% -2.50% -5.56% 6.87% 0.00% -1.14%

0.35 93.74 28.06 7.79 7.78 2.81 5.44 -0.59 1.36 8.45 -0.38 19.93 33.70 -6.47 0.38 -11.80 0.04

0.20 57.50 3.75 1.10 0.55 0.75 1.25 1.25 7.50 7.50 0.10 -

11.00 2.13 2.67 2.33 3.18 4.70 7.17 -2.71 29.78 41.78 -26.32 6.02 13.35 -0.60 8.95 -1.19 75.00 10.43

5.19% 28.75% 5.00% 6.06% 2.22% 5.68% 3.21% 0.00% 3.09% 0.00% 0.00% 6.25% 1.67% 0.00% 2.94% 0.00% 0.00% 4.12%

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Weekly Market Monitor - No. 43

Contacts Report By: Moses Waireri,Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: mwaireri@genghis-capital.com Report By: Evelyne Wanjiku, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: ewanjiku@genghis-capital.com Anthony Kimani, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: akimani@genghis-capital.com Carol Matu, Head Dealer | Tel: +254 20 2774789 | Email: cmatu@genghis-capital.com Gachanja Weru, Fixed Income Dealer| Tel:+25420 2774756 | Email: gweru@genghis-capital.com George Guy,Fixed Income Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774756| Mob: +254 727 142231 | Email: gguy@genghis-capital.com Nyawira Waithaka, Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774777 | Mob: +254 723 693481 | Email: nwaithaka@genghis-capital.com Andrew Maina, Senior Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774789 | Mob: +254 722 667936 | Email: amaina@genghis-capital.com Disclaimer: The content provided on this document is provided as general information and does not constitute advice or recommendation by Genghis Capital Ltd and should not be relied upon for investment decisions or any other matter and that this document does not constitute a distribution recommending the purchase or sale of any security or portfolio. Please note that past performance is no indication of future results. The ideas expressed in the document are solely the opinions of the author at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Although the author has made every effort to provide accurate information at the date of publication all information available in this report is provided without any express or implied warranty of any kind as to its correctness. You should consult your own independent financial adviser to obtain professional advice before exercising any decisions based on the information present in this document. Any action that you take as a result of this information, analysis, or advertisement is ultimately your responsibility.

Genghis Capital Ltd, Prudential Assurance Building, Wabera Street, Nairobi. Tel: +254 20 2774760Fax: +254 20 246334 14


Genghis Weekly Market Monitor Wk. 43