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March  13,  2014   GBAHB     2014  Housing  Forecast  Seminar   Grayson  Glaze,  CCIM,  CPM   ACRE  Executive  Director  


Special  Thanks  to  our  Founding  Partners   Since  1996    -­‐    Formed  by  Alabama  Legislative  Act  

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


ACRE’s      CORE      PURPOSE  

PROVIDE  RELEVANT  RESOURCES  IN  THE  AREAS  OF….  

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


v  5-­‐Year  Window  (‘09-­‐’13)   v       Annual  Comparison  (2013  vs  2012)   v       Month  –  Latest  Data  (February  2014)   v       Birmingham  New  Home  Production   v       Housing  Forecast   v       Economic  Outlook   v       Potluck  Thursday   v       Take  Home  ”Resources”    


BIRMINGHAM  

JANUARY 2011


v  v  v  v  v  v 

62 Total New Home Sales compared 425 in Jan ‘08 14.1 Month of Supply (8.3 ‘08) YOY Sales down 35% YOY Permits down 5% YOY Starts down 25% YOY Avg Sales Down 15%

v  2nd

 

to Last of 5 Metro Market


ROCK APARTMENT ADVISORS BIRMINGHAM,ALABAMA

In Memory – Marshall O’Neil Photo at 2010 ACRE/GBAHB VIP Party/Mike Wedgeowrh’s The Viridian

Count your Blessings… YOU survived

7


ALABAMA  SUPPLY    –      AVERAGE  #  LISTINGS  

Inventory  down  only  15%  since  2009  |    Equilibrium  =  21,580  units  

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


BIRMINGHAM SUPPLY – AVERAGE # LISTINGS Inventory  down  27%  since  2009     |    Equilibrium  =  6,000+/-­‐  units  

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


BHAM NEW HOME SUPPLY – AVERAGE # LISTINGS   |    Equilibrium  =  500+/-­‐  units   Inventory  down  58%  since  2009  

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


ALABAMA    -­‐    TOTAL  RESIDENTIAL  SALES      Still  27%  from  2006  Peak  of  59,222   @  5%  (last  3-­‐yr  average)  =  YR  2020  

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


BIRMINGHAM    -­‐    TOTAL  RESIDENTIAL  SALES   Still  down    37%  from  2006  peak  (18,805)     |  @ 7% (last 3-yr avg) = Yr 2021      

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


BIRMINGHAM    -­‐    TOTAL  NEW  HOME  SALES  

Still  down    61%  from  2008  (3,635  units)  &  30%  from  2009       @ 13% (last 2-yr avg growth) = Yr 2021-2022 to reach 2008      

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


ALABAMA    -­‐    DAYS  ON  MARKET  BEFORE  SOLD   DOM  still  up  5%  vs  ‘09  

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


BIRMINGHAM - DAYS ON MARKET BEFORE SOLD   is  Goods  News  for  Market   DOM  down  19%  since  2009  |  Trend  

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


ALABAMA    -­‐    MEDIAN  SALES  PRICE   Median  Price  UP  5.4%  since  2011  bottom      

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


BIRMINGHAM    -­‐    MEDIAN  SALES  PRICE   Median  Price  UP  16%  since  2011  (8%  per  year)    

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


BHAM  NEW  HOME    -­‐    MEDIAN  SALES  PRICE  

Median  Price  UP  26%  since  2010  bottom  (9%  avg  per  year)    

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


BHAM  NEW  HOME    -­‐    AVERAGE  SALES  PRICE  

Average  Price  UP  24%  since  2010  bottom  (8%  avg  per  year)    

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


ALABAMA    -­‐    ANNUAL  COMPARISON  

2013    VS  2012    |  3rd  Consecutive  Yr  of  Sales  Growth  –  2%  in’11,  6%  in  ‘12)  

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


BIRMINGHAM    -­‐      ANNUAL  COMPARISON  

2011  was  first  positive  sales  growth  @  2%  since  2006       2012  was  also  up  10%  over  2011  -­‐  Trending  in  Right  Direction  

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


BHAM  NEW  HOMES    -­‐      ANNUAL  COMPARISON   2012  was  first  positive  sales  growth  @  16%  since  2006)        Trending  in  Right  Direction  

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


41% dn from Peak New Home Inventory = 705 units or 10% Supply Dn 4% from Feb 13 |

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


Months  of  Supply:      DOWN  5%  from  February  2013  |    45%  down  from  Peak(Feb’10)  

New Home I/S in February = 6.8 months  

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


Sales    Up  .5%  from  Feb  2013  |  42%  down  from  Peak  in  Feb  2006  

New Home Sales = 104 units or 14% of all sales vs 12% in Feb 2013    

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


YOY  Monthly  Comparison:      DOM    Unchanged  from  Feb  2013    |    6%  Down  from    3-­‐yr  Avg  (110)  

No Bham DOM data for New Construction  

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


Prices UP 8.3% from Jan 2013 1-2% Avg. Annual Growth since 2004 | 6% off peak February 2006

New Home Median Price up 26% or $53,922

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


BHAM TREND LINES    RED

= NEW HOMES SOLD | GREEN= USED SOLD

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


BHAM TREND LINES    RED

= NEW HOMES LISTED | BLUE = NEW SOLD

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


BHAM TREND LINES    TOTAL

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

SALES VOLUME BY $ (2006-2014)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


Bham New Home – Market Share by Closed Transactions (last 12 months thru 2/2014)    DR

HORTON 12% / SIGNATURE HOMES 7%

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


BHAM TREND LINES    AVERAGE

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

PRICE – NEW HOMES BLUE

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


Bham New Home – Market Share by SALES PRICE (last 12 months thru 2/2014)  

 $200,000-299,000

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

= 40% | $300,000-$399,000 = 30%

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


NEW HOMES SUPPLY   Building  Permits  still  off  29%  from  2008               Housing Starts still off 33% from 2008 2013  –  Permits  up  18%  /  Starts  up  19%   BHAM  JANUARY  PERMITS  Down  20%    |  Start  Dn  7%  

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


Missed  by  1.5%  or    short  by  218  units  

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


Sales Forecast = 41,799 units | Actual = 43,079 units

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

Missed by: 3%  

|

 

 

 ACRE  


Sales  up  8.2%  or  80  more  units  per  month  |  NEW  HOME  7-­‐12%  RANGE    

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


Sales  up  5%  or  180  more  units  per  month  

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


US HOUSING OUTLOOK    Keyword:

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

GRADUAL

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


US HOUSING OUTLOOK    Keyword:

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

Progress

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


US HOUSING OUTLOOK    Keyword:

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

GRADUAL

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


US HOUSING OUTLOOK    Keyword:

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

PATIENCE

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


US HOUSING OUTLOOK    AL

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

1.1% / US 2.09% (Dec ‘13)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


US HOUSING OUTLOOK    AL

TYPICAL LAGS US BY 12-18 MOTNHS

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


US HOUSING OUTLOOK    Keyword:

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

STABLE

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


ROCK APARTMENT ADVISORS BIRMINGHAM,ALABAMA

Potluck

THURSDAY 52


TRULIA: RENT VS BUY    In

100 markets – on average 38% cheaper to BUY Birmingham was 56% cheaper to BUY

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


ALABAMA    -­‐    MEDIAN  SALES  PRICE  

Median  Price  Average  Annual  Appreciation  since  1975  –  7%  per  year    

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


ALABAMA Multifamily    OCCUPANCY

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

RATE TRENDS

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


US ECONOMIC OUTLOOK    Keyword:

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

EXPANSION

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


US ECONOMIC LONG-TERM OUTLOOK    Keyword:

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

STEADY

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


US HOUSING OUTLOOK    Keyword:

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

FAVORABLE (Starts up 30% in’15, 10% in ’16)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


US HOUSING OUTLOOK    Keyword:

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

FAVORABLE

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


US HOUSING OUTLOOK    Keyword:

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

Ground ZERO – Good News – 175,000

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


US HOUSING OUTLOOK    Keyword:

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

EXCITING

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


US HOUSING OUTLOOK THRU 2015    ARE

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YOU CONFIDENCE?

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


www.acre.cba.ua.edu  

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 ACRE  


Interactive Housing Data  

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 ACRE  


150+  Articles  per  Year   ACRE  /  al.com  Strategic  Partnership    

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


Organize  for  Growth   Launched  January  2013  -­‐    Critical  Funding  for  ACRE  Digitial  Multimedia  Newwork  

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


Organize  for  Growth   Leadership  Council    provide  market  insight  to  ACRE  !  Now  over  80  members  

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


ACRE  RESEARCH  

Weekly  WiRE  |  15  Local/State  Monthly  Reports  |  Fee-­‐Based  Projects  

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


Research  -­‐  Community  Impact    

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


Research    -­‐  Collaboration  

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 ACRE  


ACRE  EDUCATION  

70+  CE  COURSES  |  PUBLICATIONS  |  ACREcon  &  Summits  

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 ACRE  


ACRE  OUTREACH  

INDUSTRY–  10  Events  per  Yr  |  STUDENT–  12  Events  |  ALUMNI  –  80+  Yrs  

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  


Build  Community  –  ACRE  in  ACTION   Samaritan's   Purse  

www.    acre.cba.ua.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ACRE  



2014 Housing Forecast – Grayson Glaze, Alabama Center For Real Estate