Conflict Assessment Indicators Pocket Guide

Conflict Assessment Indicators

The Fund for Peace Country Analysis Indicators and Their Measures

THE FAILED STATES INDEX | THE FUND FOR PEACE

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Contents

Conflict Assessment

4

A Quick Guide to the Indicators

5

Demographic Pressures

6

Refugees and IDPs

8

Group Grievance

9

Human Flight and Brain Drain

11

Uneven Economic Development

12

Poverty and Economic Decline

13

Legitimacy of the State

14

Public Services

15

Human Rights and Rule of Law

16

Security Apparatus

18

Factionalized Elites

19

External Intervention

20

About The Fund for Peace

21

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3

The Fund for Peace

Conflict Assessment

T

he strength of the The Fund for Peace’s conflict assessment is its ability to distill millions of pieces of information into a form that is relevant as well as easily digestible and informative.

Daily, The Fund for Peace collects thousands of

The content analysis is further triangulated

reports and information from around the world, detailing the existing social, economic

with two other key aspects of the overall assessment process: quantitative analysis and

and political pressures faced by each of the 177

qualitative inputs based on major events in the

countries that we analyze.

countries examined. The scores produced by

The Fund for Peace’s software performs

the Fund for Peace’s software are then compared with a comprehensive set of vital

content analysis on this collected information.

statistics—as well as human analysis—to

Through sophisticated search parameters and algorithms, the CAST software separates the

ensure that the software has not misinterpreted the raw data. Though the basic data underpin-

relevant data from the irrelevant. Guided by 12

ning the Failed States Index is already freely

primary

and

social,

economic

and

political

widely

available

electronically,

the

indicators (each split into an average of 14 subindicators), the CAST software analyzes the

strength of the analysis is in the methodological rigor and the systematic integration of a

collected information using specialized search

wide range of data sources.

terms that flag relevant items. This analysis is then converted using an algorithm into a score

This manual provides an overview of the 12

representing the significance of each of the

indicators and their sub-indicators.

various pressures for a given country.

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4

The Fund for Peace

A Quick Guide to the Indicators

T

welve conflict risk indicators are used to measure the condition of a state at any given moment. The indicators provide a snapshot in time that can be measured against other snapshots in a

time series to determine whether conditions are improving or worsening.

understanding of the 1 to 10 scale.

Below is the list of indicators with suggested measures (the data that you will be looking

warrant a score of 10 for Indicator #8.

for) that you will use to rate each indicator.

education and other public services by the government of Sweden would produce a 1 or 2

The

complete inability of the Somali government to provide public services for its citizens would Conversely, the extensive provision of health,

They are divided into social, economic, and political/military categories. The measures

for that same indicator. In another example, the significant external presence of the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq or a UN peacekeeping mission

listed here are not exhaustive. You may cite others. Certain indicators draw on quantitative data (for example, Indicator #6) and others

would garner a score of 10 for Indicator #12.

utilize qualitative data (such as Indicator #3).

In contrast, while Myanmar faces significant destabilizing factors captured in the other

Rating the Indicators

indicators, its relative isolation from the international

Each Indicator is rated on a 1 to 10 scale with 1 (low) being the most stable and 10 (high) being the most at-risk of collapse and violence.

Think of it as trying to bring down a fever,

and

external

It is important not to place an extreme amount of importance on small scoring differences.

with high being dangerous and low being

The larger trends and extensive data used that

acceptable.

provide your rationale for changes will make the most valuable contribution to your expert assessment.

To do the ratings, you should draw upon obvious historical examples to guide your

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community

influences would produce a much lower score of 2 or 3 in Indicator #12.

5

The Fund for Peace

A Quick Guide to the Indicators

Mounting Demographic Pressures

•

•

Pressures deriving from high population

Pressures from high population growth rates or skewed population distributions, such as a "youth or age bulge," or sharply

resources.

divergent rates of population growth

Pressures deriving from group settlement patterns that affect the freedom to

among competing communal groups.

•

Pressures

stemming

from

natural

participate in common forms of human

disasters (hurricanes, earthquakes, floods,

and physical activity, including economic productivity, travel, social interaction,

drought, etc.) creating human suffering and deprivation.

religious worship, etc.

•

•

density relative to food supply, access to safe water, and other life-sustaining

•

Pressures deriving from group settlement patterns and physical settings, including border disputes, ownership or occupancy of land, access to transportation outlets, control of religious or historical sites.

Pressures stemming from epidemics, such as HIV/AIDS, bird flue, SARS, and other contagious diseases.

•

Pressures stemming from environmental hazards, infrastructure development that uproots communities, and industrial projects

that

threaten

indigenous

populations.

Measures

Possible questions to ask

Disease Control

Is there a system for controlling spreading of diseases or pandemics?

Disease Epidemics

Is there a high likelihood or existence of diseases of epidemics?

Environmental Policies

Do sound environmental policies exist?

Environment Practices

Are actual environmental practices sustainable?

Starvation

Is there a short-term food shortage that needs to be alleviated?

Malnutrition

Are there long-term food shortages affecting health?

Food supply

Is the food supply adequate to deal with potential interruption?

Drought

Is there are high likelihood of droughts or is there currently a drought?

HIV Aids Growth Rate

What is the rate of spread of HIV Aids Infection cases most recent and projected?

Number Infected with HIV Aids

How many HIV Aids cases are there?

A Quick Guide to the Indicators

Measures

Possible questions to ask

Land competition

Does land competition it and are there laws to arbitrate land disputes?

Resource Competition

Does resource competition it and are there laws to arbitrate resource disputes?

Likelihood of Natural Disasters

Is a natural disaster likely, recurring?

Impact of Natural Disasters

If a natural disaster occurs, is there an adequate response plan

Deforestation

Has deforestation taking place or are there laws and policies to protect forests?

Water Supply

Is there access to an adequate potable water supply?

Orphan Population

Is there a high orphan population?

Population Density

Is population density putting pressure on areas of the state?

Population Distribution

Does the country have a normal population distributed - actual and projected?

Population Growth

Is the population growth rate sustainable?

Infant Mortality

What is the infant mortality rate - actual and projected?

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7

The Fund for Peace

A Quick Guide to the Indicators

Massive Movement of Refugees or IDPs

Forced uprooting of large communities as a

turmoil that can spiral into larger humanitar-

result of random or targeted violence and/or repression, causing food shortages, disease,

ian and security problems, both within and between countries. This indicator refers to

lack of clean water, land competition, and

refugees leaving or entering a country.

Measures

Possible questions to ask

Number of IDPs

How many IDPs are there in relation to population?

Increase in IDPs

Are IDPs likely to increase in the near future?

Impact of IDPs

Are there resources to provide for projected and actual IDPs?

Influx of Refugees

Are refugees likely to come from neighboring countries?

Impact of Refugees

Are there resources to provide for projected and actual refugees?

Increase in Refugee Camps

Are there sufficient refugee camps or are refugees integrated into communities?

Violence against Refugees

Are there reports of violence against refugees?

Safety of Refugee Camps

Are conditions safe in refugee camps?

Relief Efforts

Is there access to additional resources from international community for refugees and/or IDPs?

Relocation & Settlement

Are there plans for relocation and settlement of current IDPs and/or refugees?

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8

The Fund for Peace

A Quick Guide to the Indicators

Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance or Paranoia •

• •

•

History of aggrieved communal groups

•

Public scapegoating of groups believed to

citing injustices of the past, sometimes going back centuries.

have acquired wealth, status or power as evidenced in the emergence of “hate”

Pattern of atrocities committed with

radio, pamphleteering, and stereotypical

impunity against communal groups.

or nationalistic political rhetoric.

•

Specific groups singled out by state

Groups

aggrieved

because

they

are

authorities, or by dominant groups, for

denied autonomy, self-determination or

persecution or repression.

political independence

Institutionalized political exclusion.

Measures

Possible questions to ask

Compensation for Victims

Are victims of past atrocities compensated or is their a plan to compensate them?

Truth & Reconciliation

Does a Truth & Reconciliation process exist or is one planned, needed?

Distribution of Resources

Is there an equitable and efficient distribution of resources?

Ethnic Hatred or Tolerance

Are there feelings of or reports of ethnic violence?

Religious Hatred or Tolerance

Are there feelings of or reports of violence based on religion?

Group Oppression

Are groups oppressed or do they feel oppressed?

Reintegration

Have groups been reintegrated, if applicable?

History of Group Grievance

Is there a history of violence against a group or group grievance?

Intertribal Relations

How are intertribal relations?

Interethnic Relations

How are interethnic relations?

Vigilante Justice

Are there reports of vigilant justice?

War Criminals

Are war criminals apprehended and prosecuted? Do the public feel war criminals are properly treated?

Mass Violence

Are the reports of mass violence?

Racial Violence

Are there reports of violence that is racially motivated?

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The Fund for Peace

A Quick Guide to the Indicators

Measures

Possible questions to ask

Mass Killings

Are there reports of mass killings?

Reconstruction

Is there a plan for reconstruction and development?

Religious Persecution or Tolerance

Is there freedom of religion accoring to laws and practiced by society?

Religious Violent Persecution

Are there reports of violence that is religiously motivated?

Amnesty

Has amnesty been granted?

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The Fund for Peace

A Quick Guide to the Indicators

Chronic and Sustained Human Flight and Brain Drain •

•

“Brain drain” of professionals, intellectu-

such as entrepreneurs, businesspeople,

als and political dissidents persecution or repression.

artisans and traders, due to economic deterioration.

fearing

•

Voluntary emigration of "the middle

Growth

of

exile

communities

and

Diasporas.

class", pa rtic ula rl y ec onomicall y productive segments of the population, Measures

Possible questions to ask

Brain Drain

Is there a relatively high proportion of higher educated people leaving the country?

Remittances

Are there a large amount of remittances coming to families from relatives overseas?

Political Drain or Return

Are politicians leaving the country?

Professional Flight

Are professionals leaving the country?

Return of Middle Class

Is the middle class beginning to return to the country?

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The Fund for Peace

A Quick Guide to the Indicators

Uneven Economic Development Along Group Lines •

Group-based inequality, or perceived

•

•

Group-ba sed

impov eri shment

Rise of communal nationalism based on real or perceived group inequalities.

inequality, in education and economic status. as

measured by poverty levels, infant mortality rates, educational levels, etc.

Measures

Possible questions to ask

Discriminatory Economics

Is the economic system discriminatory?

Economic Equality - Gap

Is there a large economic gap?

Economic Justice

Does economic justice exist?

Free Education

Does free education exist and if so, to which grade?

Equal Education

Is the education provided relatively equal?

Fair Housing

Is there a housing system for the poor?

Existence of Ghettos or Slums

Do ghettos and slums exist?

Hiring Practices

Are hiring practices generally fair - legally and the perception of others?

Job Training

Do programs for job training exist?

Job Training Use

Do people know about the job training and is it available based on qualification and need?

Social System

Do equal rights exist in the society?

Equal Rights Legislation

Are there laws protecting equal rights?

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The Fund for Peace

A Quick Guide to the Indicators

Poverty, Sharp and/or Severe Economic Decline •

A pattern of progressive economic decline

•

of the society as a whole as measured by per capita income, GNP, debt, child

economic austerity programs.

•

mortality rates, poverty levels, business

flight.

Sudden drop in commodity prices, trade

•

revenue, or foreign investment.

•

Growth of hidden economies, including the drug trade, smuggling, and capital

failures, etc.

•

Extreme social hardship imposed by

Increase in levels of corruption and illicit transactions among the general populace.

Collapse or devaluation of the national currency.

•

Perceived group inequalities.

Measures

Possible questions to ask

Government Debt

What is the government debt?

Interest Rates

How are the interest rates - actual and projected?

Inflation Rate

How is the inflation rate - actual and projected?

Consumer Confidence

How do people view the economy?

National Economy

How do experts view the economy?

Productivity

What is the productivity?

GDP

What is the GDP - actual and projected?

Unemployment

How is the unemployment - current and rate of unemployment?

Economic Focus

Does one product make up the majority of the economy?

Business Climate for FDI

Is the business climate attractive to FDI?

Business Climate for Entrepreneurship

Do the laws and access to capital allow for internal entrepreneurship?

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The Fund for Peace

A Quick Guide to the Indicators

Criminalization and/or Delegitimization of the State •

Massive

and endemic

corruption or

•

profiteering by ruling elites.

•

Widespread loss of popular confidence in

Resistance of ruling elites to transparency,

state institutions and processes, e.g., widely boycotted or flawed elections,

accountability and political representa-

mass public demonstrations, sustained

tion, revealed by scandals, investigative journalism, criminal prosecution or civil

civil disobedience, inability of the state to collect taxes, resistance to military

action.

conscription, rise of armed insurgencies.

•

Growth of crime syndicates linked to ruling elites.

Measures

Possible questions to ask

Armed Insurgents

Are there reports of armed insurgents and attacks?

Suicide Bombers

Have there been suicide bombings and how likely are they?

Corruption of Federal Officials

Is there evidence of corruption on the part of federal officials?

Accusation of Corruption of Federal Officials

Are federal officials considered to be corrupt?

Corruption of Local Officials

Are local officials considered to be corrupt?

Accusation of Corruption of Local Officials

Are local officials considered to be corrupt?

Perception of Elections

Are elections perceived to be free and fair?

Monitoring of Elections

Have elections been monitored and reported as free and fair?

Confidence in Government

Does the government have the confidence of the people?

Makeup of Government

Is the government representative of the population?

Most recent Leadership Transition

Have there been recent peaceful transitions of power?

History of Leadership Transitions

What is the longer term history of transition of power?

Political Rights

Do political rights for all parties exist?

Political Assassinations

Are there reports of politically motivated attacks and assassinations?

Riots & Uprisings

Have riots occurred?

Peaceful Demonstrations

Have peaceful demonstrations occurred

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The Fund for Peace

A Quick Guide to the Indicators

Progressive Deterioration of Public Services •

Disappearance of basic state functions

•

State apparatus narrows to those agencies

that serve the people, including failure to protect citizens from terrorism and

that serve the ruling elites, such as security agencies, presidential staff, the

violence and to provide essential services,

central bank, the diplomatic service,

such as health, education, sanitation, public transportation, etc.

customs and collection agencies, etc.

Measures

Possible questions to ask

Access to Housing

Do the poor have access to adequate housing?

Housing Costs

Are housing costs in line with the general economy?

Education Enrollment

What is the level of school enrollment? Different for boys and girls?

Literacy Rates

What are the literacy rates? Different for boys and girls?

Fuel Supply

Is there an adequate supply of fuel?

Access to Medicine

Do people have adequate access to medicines?

Number of Clinics or Hospitals

Are there an adequate number of medical facilities for the population?

Number of Physicians

Are there an adequate number of medical professionals for the population?

Infant Mortality

What is the infant mortality rate - actual and projected?

Potable Water

Is there access to an adequate potable water supply?

Public Services Equality

Is there equal access to public services?

Public Services General

What are the general conditions of public services?

Roads

Are roads adequate and safe?

Sanitation

Is sanitation system adequate?

Airports

Are there adequate airports for sustainable development?

Railroads

Are there adequate railroads for sustainable development?

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15

The Fund for Peace

A Quick Guide to the Indicators

Suspension of the Rule of Law and Widespread Violation of Human Rights •

•

•

Emergence of authoritarian, dictatorial or

•

Widespread abuse of legal, political and

military rule in which constitutional and democratic institutions and processes are

social rights, including those of individuals, groups and institutions (e.g.

suspended or manipulated.

harassment of the press, politicization of

Outbreak of politically inspired (as opposed to criminal) violence against

the judiciary, internal use of military for political ends, public repression of

innocent civilians.

political opponents).

Rising number of political prisoners or dissidents who are denied due process consistent with international norms and practices.

Measures

Possible questions to ask

Child Labor

Are there child labor laws or reports of child labor?

Civil Rights

Are there civil rights laws and are civil rights protected?

Communal Rights

Do communal rights exist and are they protected?

Labor Rights

Do labor rights exist and are they protected?

Legal System

If rights are not protected, is there a legal system in which that can be addressed?

Minority Rights

Do communal rights exist and are they protected?

Access to Information

Is there equal access to information?

Freedom of Movement

Is there freedom of movement?

Arbitrary Arrests

Are there accusations or reports of arbitrary arrests? Are these state-sponsored?

Illegal Detention

Are there accusations or reports of illegal detention? Are these state-sponsored?

Political Rights

Do political rights exist and are they protected?

Power Sharing

Is there a process and system that encourages political power sharing?

Prison Conditions

How are the prison conditions?

Fair Trials

Do accused receive a fair and timely trial? Is this equal for all?

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A Quick Guide to the Indicators

Measures

Possible questions to ask

Religious Freedom

Does religious freedom exist?

Religious Extremism

Does religious extremism exist?

Forced Relocation

Are groups forced to relocate?

Compensation for Relocation

If relocation occurs, is there a system that ensures proper compensation?

Right to Life

Is the right to life protected for all citizens?

Torture

Are there reports of state- or group-sponsored torture?

Freedom of Speech

Are there laws protecting freedom of speech?

Existence of Independent Media

Does an independent media exist? Do its reporters feel free to publish accusations against those in power?

Systemic Violation of Rights

Is there a history of systemic violation of rights by the government or entity therein?

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17

The Fund for Peace

A Quick Guide to the Indicators

Security Apparatus Operates as a “State within a State” •

•

Emergence of elite or praetorian guards

•

Emergence of an “army within an army,”

loyal to a leader, that operate with impunity and by-pass the chain of

secret intelligence units, or other irregular security forces that serve the interests of a

command of regular armed forces.

political clique or leader.

Emergence of state-sponsored or statesupported “private militias" that terrorize

•

Armed resistance to the governing authority, violent uprisings and

political opponents, suspected “enemies,”

insurgencies, proliferation of independent

or civilians seen to be sympathetic to the opposition.

militias, vigilantes, or mercenary groups that challenge the state’s monopoly of the use of force.

Measures

Possible questions to ask

Arms Proliferation

Is there a high availability of weapons?

DDR Program

If in reconstruction, is there an adequate plan for demobilization, disarmament and reintegration of former combatants?

Use of Force

Does the military and police maintain proper use of force?

Guerillas

Are there guerilla forces operating in the state? Do they control territory?

Militias

Do private militias exist against the state?

Military

Is the military under civilian control?

Paramilitary

Is there paramilitary activity?

Accusations of Police Brutality

Are there accusations of police brutality?

Professionalization of Police

Are the police considered to be professional?

Political Violence

Is violence often state-sponsored and politically motivated?

Private Forces

Do private armies exist to protect assets?

Government Response to Security Threats

Is the government dealing well with any insurgency or security situation?

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The Fund for Peace

A Quick Guide to the Indicators

Rise of Factionalized Elites

•

Fragmentation of ruling elites and state

•

institutions along ethnic, class, clan, racial or religious lines.

•

Absence of legitimate leadership widely accepted as citizenry.

representing

the

entire

Use of nationalistic political rhetoric by ruling elites, often in terms of communal irredentism (e.g., a "greater Serbia") or of communal

solidarity

(e.g.,

“ethnic

cleansing" or “defending the faith").

Measures

Possible questions to ask

Concentration of Wealth

Is wealth concentrated in the hands of a few?

Growing Middle Class

Is there a burgeoning middle class?

Fragmentation

Are there factionalized elites, tribal elites and/or fringe groups? How powerful are they?

National Identity

Is there a sense of national identity?

Law

Are the laws democratic or extreme?

Leadership

Is the leadership fairly elected?

Nationalism

How strong are feelings of nationalism?

Representation in Judicial System

Is the judicial system representative of the population?

Representation in Military

Is the military representative of the population?

Control of Resources

Does any one group or party control the majority of resources?

Distribution of Resources

Are resources fairly distributed?

Revenue Distribution

Does the government adequately distribute wealth through its tax system and taxes

Extremist Rhetoric

Does hate radio and media exist?

Political Reconciliation

Is there a political reconciliation process?

Separatism

Are there calls for separatism?

Stereotyping

Is religious, ethnic, or other stereotyping prevalent and is there scape-goating?

Cross Cultural Respect

Does cross-cultural respect exist?

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The Fund for Peace

A Quick Guide to the Indicators

Intervention of Other States or External Political Actors •

•

Military or paramilitary engagement,

through large-scale loans, development

both covert and overt, in the internal affairs of the state at risk by outside

projects, or foreign aid, such as ongoing budget support, control of finances, or

armies, states, identity groups, or entities

management of the state’s economic

that affect the internal balance of power or the resolution of conflict.

policy, creating economic dependency.

Economic intervention by outside powers,

Humanitarian or strategic military intervention into an internal conflict or for

including

regime change.

multilateral

•

organizations,

Measures

Possible questions to ask

Covert Intervention

Are covert operations taking place?

Economic Intervention or Aid

Is the country receiving economic aid?

Dependency on Aid

Is the country dependent on economic aid?

External Support for Factions

Is there external support for factions opposed to the government?

Military Attacks Across Borders

Are military attacks from other countries occurring?

Presence of Foreign Troops

Are foreign troops present?

Military Assistance

Is there external military assistance?

Military Training

Are there military training exercises with other nations or support of military training from other states?

Peacekeeping

Is there a peacekeeping operation on the ground?

Training of Police

Is there external support for police training?

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The Fund for Peace

About The Fund for Peace

T

he Fund for Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) non-profit research and educational organization that works to prevent violent conflict and promote sustainable security.

Conflict Early Warning and Assessment

Sustainable Development, Sustainable Security

Transnational Threats

We promote sustainable security through

states. We work at both the grassroots level

research, training and education, engagement

with civil society actors and at policy levels

of civil society, building bridges across diverse sectors, and developing innovative technolo-

with key decision makers. We have worked in over 50 countries with a wide range of partners

gies and tools for policy makers.

in all

sectors: governments, international

organizations, the military, nongovernmental A leader in the conflict assessment and early warning field, the Fund for Peace focuses on

organizations, academics, journalists, society networks, and the private sector.

civil

the problems of weak and failing states. Our objective is to create practical tools and approaches for conflict mitigation that are

The Fund for Peace offers a wide range of initiatives focused on our central objective of

useful to decision-makers.

promoting sustainable security, the ability of a state to solve its own problems peacefully

The Fund for Peace adopts a holistic approach to the issues stemming from weak and failing

without an external military or administrative presence.

Contact Us for More Information Ken Brill President T: +1 202 223 7947 ext. 207

Krista Hendry Executive Director T: +1 202 223 7947 ext. 212

J. J. Messner Senior Associate T: +1 202 223 7947 ext. 206

E: kenbrill@fundforpeace.org

E: khendry@fundforpeace.org

E: jmessner@fundforpeace.org

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