FUELSNews 360˚ Commentaries Hannah’s Hypothesis
BEAR
Sustained price appreciation through Q1 2013 seems unrealistic, barring heightened tensions in the Middle East, so I am somewhat bearish/neutral flat price for the next three months. While the economy is showing signs of a slow recovery, the macroeconomic landscape and current fundamentals do not support crude breaking through the $100/b mark. For these reasons, a continuance of range-bound flat price activity through the next quarter seems most likely.
Jorge Pradilla’s Predictions
BULL
As we begin a new year, I am leaning towards the bullish side for the first quarter of 2013. With the latest macroeconomic data suggesting the global economy is showing signs of recovery, I expect oil demand to increase, causing upward pressure on oil prices. However, it is important to point out that the global economic crisis is far from over, and economic growth will remain sluggish until the European economy improves. As predictions for 2013 point towards a better year, I still expect the U.S. dollar, the Euro, OPEC, jobless claims and international geopolitics to all impact oil prices in Q1 2013.
Chris’s Concept
BULL
As we move into the first quarter of 2013, I expect the market to start to trade at current levels and then trend up. Heating oil closed the fourth quarter with a 4-year high average, and since 2009, the first quarter has supported higher levels than the previous quarter. At the end of the first quarter, the “spring rally” for RBOB should begin as markets are preparing for summer RVP changes. As always, uncertainty prevails with Iran and North Korea, which always increases volatility in the market. Washington passed a scaled down version, but the majority of pressing issues will have to be addressed by February. Credit rating agencies are watching Washington for the new spending cuts and tax reform plans before they issue a new rating. Considering all of these factors, I believe that money will still be poured into commodities during the first quarter. With all that said, I still remain bullish for the start of 2013. 16
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