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skill. Mark Hulbert clearly articulates this fact in his 2008 New York Times article, “The Prescient are Few.”51 The article details the findings of a study52 by Professors Laurent Barras, Olivier Scaillet and Russell Wermers about the performance of 2,076 mutual fund managers over the 32-years from 1975 to 2006. The study found that 99.4% of the managers displayed no evidence of genuine stock picking skill, and that the 0.6% of managers who did outperform the index were “statistically indistinguishable from zero,” or as Hulbert puts it, “just lucky.” Figure 3-1 depicts the study’s results. A statistical test called the Student’s t-test was introduced in 1908 by William Sealy Gosset, referred to as the “Student,” while Figure 3-1

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