close to the correct answer. In a 1906 Nature Magazine article titled, “Vox Populi” (Voice of the People), Galton concluded that a group of individuals making independent guesses would make a more accurate assessment than any individual would on their own30. The world’s equity markets support Galton’s discovery, as about ten million investors independently and collectively estimate the fair value of stocks every trading day. In 2005, New York Times journalist and author James Surowiecki eloquently detailed the accuracy of the collective wisdom of all of us in his popular book, The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations.31 His book describes and affirms Galton’s findings that large groups of people are smarter than even the experts.
1965 – Prices Are Random In 1970, MIT Professor of Economics Paul Samuelson was the first American to be awarded a Nobel Prize in Economics. Samuelson has long been credited with contributing more than any Paul Samuelson other contemporary economist to raising the analytical and methodological levels of economic science. Influenced greatly by Louis Bachelier, Samuelson proved, expanded and refined Bachelier’s work in his famous paper, “Proof that Properly Anticipated Prices Fluctuate Randomly,”32 published in 1965. His findings can be summarized as follows: a) market prices are the best estimates of value; b) price changes follow random patterns; and c) future news and
Published on Jun 1, 2015
This book reveals the potential land mines and pitfalls of active investing and educates readers on the benefits of passive investing with i...