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Step 11: Risk Exposure

Index Portfolio 25

Simulated Passive Investor Experiences (SPIEs)

Based on 50 Years of Monthly Data (January 1, 1968 to December 31, 2017) 600 Months Examples of 5-Year Monthly Rolling Periods 1 Jan 68

1

5 Yrs

Feb 68

2 3

Mar 68

4

Apr 68

1961

1962

Dec 72

5 Yrs

Jan 73

5 Yrs

Feb 73

5 Yrs 1963

Mar 73

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

Rolling Period Return Data: 50 Years (1968 to 2017) Lowest Rolling Period Date

Return Median Per Period # of Median Range Ann'lzd Number of: Rolling Return (High minus Growth of $1 Yrs Months Periods (50th %ile) Low) 0.08 0.25 0.5 1 2 3 4 55 1 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 20 30 40 50

1 3 6 12 24 36 48 60

600 598 595 589 577 565 553 541 529 517 505 493 481 469 457 445 433 421 361 241 121 1

72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180 240 360 480 600

0.65% 1.69% 3.33% 7.46% 7.05% 7.19% 7.23% 7.02% 7.02% 7.33% 7.33% 7.53% 7.66% 7.76% 7.76% 7.70% 7.66% 7.83% 8.49% 8.68% 8.83% 7.97% 7.25%

12.08% 20.61% 28.43% 40.29% 25.86% 18.49% 17.87% 15.65% 15.65% 13.98% 12.84% 11.85% 11.19% 10.39% 9.97% 10.01% 9.58% 8.80% 8.57% 6.86% 4.08% 1.03% 0.00%

Lowest Rolling Period Return

$1.01 10/87-10/87 -4.99% $1.02 9/08-11/08 -7.10% $1.03 9/08-2/09 -10.57% $1.07 3/08-2/09 -11.08% -5.05% $1.15 3/07-2/09 -1.20% $1.23 3/06-2/09 3/05-2/09 0.45% $1.32 $1.40 3/04-2/09 1.15% 3/04-2/09 1.15% $1.40 2.29% $1.53 5/11-4/17 2.78% $1.64 1/11-12/17 2.53% $1.79 10/07-9/15 $1.94 11/07-10/16 2.44% 2.67% $2.11 6/07-5/17 3.06% $2.28 1/07-12/17 3/04-2/16 3.27% $2.44 3.47% $2.61 4/04-3/17 3.68% $2.87 1/04-12/17 3.95% $3.39 2/01-1/16 4.32% $5.28 10/97-9/17 5.61% $12.68 9/87-8/17 7.37% $21.47 1/78-12/17 7.25% $33.12 1/68-12/17

Growth of $1 in Lowest Period

Highest Rolling Period Date

Highest Rolling Period Return

Growth of $1 in Highest Period

$0.95 $0.93 $0.89 $0.89 $0.90 $0.96 $1.02 $1.06 $1.06 $1.15 $1.21 $1.22 $1.24 $1.30 $1.39 $1.47 $1.56 $1.66 $1.79 $2.33 $5.14 $17.19 $33.12

4/80-4/80 4/80-6/80 7/82-12/82 7/82-6/83 7/84-6/86 8/84-7/87 7/82-6/86 9/81-8/86 9/81-8/86 4/80-3/86 4/80-3/87 4/80-3/88 4/80-3/89 4/80-3/90 9/75-8/86 9/74-8/86 9/74-8/87 10/74-9/88 10/74-9/89 9/74-8/94 1/75-12/04 5/70-4/10 1/68-12/17

7.09% 13.51% 17.86% 29.20% 20.81% 17.29% 18.33% 16.81% 16.81% 16.27% 15.62% 14.38% 13.63% 13.06% 13.03% 13.28% 13.06% 12.47% 12.52% 11.17% 9.69% 8.40% 7.25%

$1.07 $1.14 $1.18 $1.29 $1.46 $1.61 $1.96 $2.17 $2.17 $2.47 $2.76 $2.93 $3.16 $3.41 $3.85 $4.47 $4.93 $5.19 $5.87 $8.32 $16.03 $25.21 $33.12

5-Year 1 Monthly Rolling Periods: 50 Years (1968 to 2017) Total of 541 Rolling Periods 50th* 7.02%

120 110

25th* 5.15%

100 90

75th* 9.47% 95th* 13.57%

5th* 2.80%

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

-50

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Annualized Returns for 5-Year Monthly Rolling Periods (%) 5-years represents the estimated average holding period for investors who score 25 on the Risk Capacity Survey at ifa.com. The Median Annualized Returns, Return Range, and Median Growth of $1 shown for 1, 3, and 6 month periods are not annualized. * Percentile ranking of all the rolling periods. Sources, Updates, and Disclosures: ifabt.com, Appx A

Index Funds: The 12-Step Recovery Program for Active Investors  

This book reveals the potential land mines and pitfalls of active investing and educates readers on the benefits of passive investing with i...

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This book reveals the potential land mines and pitfalls of active investing and educates readers on the benefits of passive investing with i...