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249

Step 11: Risk Exposure

Index Portfolio 100

Simulated Passive Investor Experiences (SPIEs)

Based on 50 Years of Monthly Data (January 1, 1968 to December 31, 2017) 600 Months Examples of 15-Year Monthly Rolling Periods 1 Jan 68

1

15 Yrs

Feb 68

2 3

Mar 68

4

Apr 68

1961

1962

Dec 82

15 Yrs

Jan 83

15 Yrs

Feb 83

15 Yrs 1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

Mar 83 1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

Rolling Period Return Data: 50 Years (1968 to 2017)

0.08 0.25 0.5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 15 20 30 40 50

1 3 6 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180 180

600 598 595 589 577 565 553 541 529 517 505 493 481 469 457 445 433 421 421 361 241 121 1

240 360 480 600

1.37% 4.10% 7.02% 15.93% 14.17% 12.59% 12.33% 12.79% 12.46% 12.58% 13.15% 12.75% 12.41% 12.76% 12.65% 13.08% 13.36% 13.33% 13.33% 14.33% 13.39% 13.36% 12.23%

45.01% 77.26% 109.62% 126.80% 82.47% 55.26% 44.54% 38.31% 36.37% 28.72% 23.93% 24.54% 20.78% 22.45% 21.37% 21.06% 18.12% 18.79% 18.79%

$1.01 $1.04 $1.07 $1.16 $1.30 $1.43 $1.59 $1.83 $2.02 $2.29 $2.69 $2.94 $3.22 $3.75 $4.18 $4.94 $5.79 $6.53 $6.53

12.95% $14.56 7.79% $43.40 4.16% $151.04 0.00% $319.92

Growth of $1 in Lowest Period

Lowest Rolling Period Return

Lowest Rolling Period Date

Return Median Per Period # of Median Range Ann'lzd Number of: Rolling Return (High minus Growth of $1 Yrs Months Periods (50th %ile) Low)

10/08-10/08 9/08-11/08 9/08-2/09 3/08-2/09 3/07-2/09 3/06-2/09 3/05-2/09 3/04-2/09 1/69-12/74 1/68-12/74 3/01-2/09 3/00-2/09 3/99-2/09 3/98-2/09 3/97-2/09 3/96-2/09 3/95-2/09 3/94-2/09 3/94-2/09 3/89-2/09 9/87-8/17 3/69-2/09 1/68-12/17

-22.59% $0.77 -37.19% $0.63 -47.73% $0.52 -49.38% $0.51 -31.37% $0.47 -18.27% $0.55 -10.39% $0.64 -5.44% $0.76 -6.54% $0.67 -1.57% $0.89 0.83% $1.07 1.06% $1.10 3.36% $1.39 2.17% $1.27 3.41% $1.49 4.34% $1.74 5.67% $2.17 5.20% $2.14 5.20% $2.14 7.35% $4.13 9.89% $16.94 10.89% $62.57 12.23% $319.92

Highest Rolling Period Date 1/75-1/75 3/09-5/09 3/09-8/09 3/09-2/10 3/09-2/11 8/84-7/87 10/74-9/78 8/82-7/87 1/75-12/80 8/82-7/89 1/75-12/82 1/75-12/83 9/77-8/87 1/75-12/85 1/75-12/86 10/74-9/87 1/75-12/88 10/74-9/89 10/74-9/89 10/74-9/94 1/75-12/04 1/75-12/14 1/68-12/17

Highest Rolling Period Return

Growth of $1 in Highest Period

22.42% $1.22 40.08% $1.40 61.90% $1.62 77.42% $1.77 51.10% $2.28 37.00% $2.57 34.15% $3.24 32.87% $4.14 29.83% $4.79 27.15% $5.37 24.76% $5.87 25.60% $7.78 24.13% $8.69 24.62% $11.26 24.78% $14.24 25.40% $18.97 23.79% $19.85 23.99% 23.99% $25.16 $25.16 20.30% $40.33 17.69% $132.35 15.05% $272.65 12.23% $319.92

15-Year 1 Monthly Rolling Periods: 50 Years (1968 to 2017) Total of 421 Rolling Periods 50th* 13.33%

120 110

25th* 9.87%

100 90

75th* 17.22% 95th* 19.72%

5th* 7.91%

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

-50

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Annualized Returns for 15-Year Monthly Rolling Periods (%) 15-years represents the estimated average holding period for investors who score 100 on the Risk Capacity Survey at ifa.com. The Median Annualized Returns, Return Range, and Median Growth of $1 shown for 1, 3, and 6 month periods are not annualized. Sources, Updates, and Disclosures: ifabt.com, Appx A * Percentile ranking of all the rolling periods.

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