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Step 9: History

Step 9: History

“It takes between 20 and 800 years of monitoring performance to statistically prove that a money manager is skillful rather than lucky—which is a lot more than most people have in mind when they say ‘long-term’ track record.” – Ted Aronson, “Confessions of a Fund Pro,” Money Magazine, 1999

“While much has changed over the years, some things remain the same. There is still a strong relation between risk and expected return… Some things stand the test of time.” – James L. Davis, Ph.D., “Digging the Panama Canal,” 2004

“Those who are ignorant of investment history are bound to repeat it. Historical investment returns and risks of various asset classes should be studied. Investment results, for an asset over a long enough period (greater than 20 years) are a good guide to future returns and risks of that asset.” – William Bernstein, Ph.D., M.D., The Intelligent Asset Allocator, 2000

“I know of no way of judging the future but by the past.” – Patrick Henry, Virginia Convention Speech, 1775

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