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A profile of North Carolinians

-Swarna Reddy

NC DAAS


NC is aging!  

 

Retirees Foreign-born population (Immigrant and refugees) Life expectancy Baby Boomers


NC ranks, 2010   

10th in total population 9th in population 65+ 10th in population 85+

Total population 2000 - 8 million 2010 - 9.5 million - UC Census 2010, 2005-2009, ACS


Total Population Change, 2000-2010

Increase 300,000

Counties

250,000

Halifax

-2,679

Martin

-1,088

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000

ui l fo rd G

U

ni o

n

g kl en bu r M ec

W ak e

0

Decrease

Washington

-495

Jones

-228

Lenoir

-153

Mitchell

-108

Hyde

-16


Population in NC, 2010-2030

2010

2030

Total population

9.5 million

65+

1.2 million

12.9% 65+

2.1 million

17.6%

85+

147,461

1.5% 85+

240,016

2.0%

1.8 million

14.5%

Baby Boomers (46-64 years old)

Total population

12.6 million

Baby Boomers 2.4 million

ď ŽCentenarians

24.8% (66-84 years old)

– 1,404 (213 males, 1,191 females)


NC Population Growth 2000-2030 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2000

2010 0-17

Source: NC State Data Center

2020 60+

2030 85+


Profile of County Population, Ages 0-17 and 60+ in NC, 2010

Ashe Watauga

Wilkes

Mitchell Avery Madison

Burke Haywood

Swain

Henderson

Graham Cherokee

Jackson Macon

Surry

McDowell Rutherford Polk

Lincoln Cleveland Gaston

Transylvania

Rockingham Caswell

Guilford

Davidson Rowan

Montgomery

Clay Anson

Franklin

Bertie Edgecombe Pitt

Johnston Harnett

Hoke

Perquimans Chowan

Washington Tyrrell Beaufort

Greene

Hyde

Wayne

Cumberland

Craven

Pamlico

Jones

Sampson Duplin

Scotland Robeson

Onslow Bladen Pender New Hanover

Columbus Brunswick

Counties with more 60+ than 0-17 (43) Counties with more 0-17 than 60+ (57)

Source: US Census 2010, June 2011

Martin

Wilson

Lenoir

Richmond

Gates Hertford

Halifax

Wake

Chatham

Moore

Northampton

Warren

Nash

Lee Stanly

Union

Vance

AlamanceOrange Durham

Randolph

Cabarrus Mecklenburg

Person

Granville

Forsyth

Davie

Iredell Catawba

Stokes

Yadkin

Caldwell Alexander

Yancey

Buncombe

Pasquotank Currituck Camden

Alleghany

Carteret

Dare


Age Groups 0-17 and 60+, 2030

Ashe Watauga

Wilkes

Mitchell Avery Madison

Burke Haywood

Swain

Henderson

Graham Cherokee

Jackson Macon

Transylvania

Surry

McDowell Rutherford Polk

Lincoln Cleveland Gaston

Rockingham Caswell

Guilford

Davidson Rowan

Montgomery

Clay Anson

Franklin

Bertie Edgecombe Pitt

Johnston Harnett

Hoke

Washington Tyrrell Beaufort

Greene

Cumberland

Hyde

Craven

Pamlico

Jones

Sampson Duplin

Robeson

Onslow Bladen Pender New Hanover

Columbus Brunswick

Counties with more 0-17 than 60+

Perquimans Chowan

Wayne

Scotland

Counties with more 60+ than 0-17

Martin

Wilson

Lenoir

Richmond

Gates Hertford

Halifax

Wake

Chatham

Moore

Northampton

Warren

Nash

Lee Stanly

Union

Vance

AlamanceOrange Durham

Randolph

Cabarrus Mecklenburg

Person

Granville

Forsyth

Davie

Iredell Catawba

Stokes

Yadkin

Caldwell Alexander

Yancey

Buncombe

Pasquotank Currituck Camden

Alleghany

(71)

Carteret

Dare


Figure C. Projected Growth of Population Ages 65 and Older from 2010 to 2030

Ashe Watauga

Wilkes

Mitchell Avery Madison

Burke Swain

Henderson

Graham Cherokee

Haywood Jackson

Macon

Surry

McDowell Rutherford Polk

Transylvania

Guilford

Davidson

Montgomery

Clay Anson

Franklin

Bertie Edgecombe Pitt

Johnston Harnett

Hoke

Perquimans Chowan

Washington Tyrrell Beaufort

Greene

Hyde

Wayne

Cumberland

Craven

Pamlico

Jones

Sampson Duplin

Scotland Robeson

Onslow Bladen Pender

Greater than 150% 100 to 150% increase 50 to 99% increase

Martin

Wilson

Lenoir

Richmond

Gates Hertford

Halifax

Wake

Chatham

Moore

Northampton

Warren

Nash

Lee Stanly

Union

Vance

AlamanceOrange Durham

Randolph

Cabarrus Mecklenburg

Person

Granville

Forsyth

Rowan

Lincoln Cleveland Gaston

Rockingham Caswell

Davie

Iredell Catawba

Stokes

Yadkin

Caldwell Alexander

Yancey

Buncombe

Pasquotank Currituck Camden

Alleghany

New Hanover

Columbus

3 to 49% increase Range: 3% -170% Projected growth for the State is 74% Source: Based on 2010 and 2030 projections from Office of State Budget and Management

Brunswick

Carteret

Dare


Rural Counties in North Carolina

Ashe Watauga

Wilkes

Mitchell Avery Madison

Burke Swain

Henderson

Graham Cherokee

Haywood Jackson

Macon

Surry

McDowell Rutherford Polk

Transylvania

Lincoln Cleveland Gaston

Rockingham Caswell

Guilford

Davidson Rowan

Montgomery

Clay Anson

Franklin

Bertie Edgecombe Pitt

Johnston Harnett

Hoke

Craven

Onslow Bladen

New Hanover Brunswick

Source: US Census 2000

Hyde

Pamlico

Duplin

Columbus

Less than 40% rural

Beaufort

Jones

Sampson

Pender

40% to 69.9 rural

Washington Tyrrell

Greene

Cumberland

Robeson

70% to 99.9% rural

Perquimans Chowan

Wayne

Scotland

100% rural (22)

Martin

Wilson

Lenoir

Richmond

Gates Hertford

Halifax

Wake

Chatham

Moore

Northampton

Warren

Nash

Lee Stanly

Union

Vance

AlamanceOrange Durham

Randolph

Cabarrus Mecklenburg

Person

Granville

Forsyth

Davie

Iredell Catawba

Stokes

Yadkin

Caldwell Alexander

Yancey

Buncombe

Pasquotank Currituck Camden

Alleghany

Carteret

Dare


Median Age ď Ž ď Ž

37.4 years 78 counties had higher median age than the state (Clay 49.6 years)

Watauga county had a drop in median age from 2000-2010 of -1.5 years. Migration, aging baby boomers, low birth rates, increased life expectancy and aging in place will be some of the driving forces in the changes in median age in the future.


Age Dependency Ratio Number of people 65 and over ------------------------------------------- X 100 Number of people aged 18-64 (2010=20.5%) (2030=30%) More money spent on health, social security, shortage of labor force


Funding Formula Factors 50% 60+

30% Poverty

10% Minority

10% Rural


Grandparents Raising Grandchildren under 18 Years

•89,622 grandparents (30 years or older) •32,411 males, 57,211 females •62,376 (69.6%) were 30-59 years old •27,246 (30.4%) were 60 and over •A number of these grandparents have disabilities and live below poverty level • NC ranks 8th nationally in grandparents responsible for grandchildren under 18


Other statistics, age 65 and over    

23% are veterans 80% own their homes 29% live alone Median household income is $29,805 (Wake , Orange, Dare - $42K, rural counties – 19K-20K)


Women outnumber Men 80%

70% 58%

60%

42% 40%

30%

20%

0%

65+

85+ Male

Female


Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Race/Ethnicity

Persons 65 and Over (as a % of age group)

White alone

80.5%

African-American alone

16.4%

American-Indian alone

0.9%

Asian alone

1.1%

Hispanic/Latino alone

1.5%

Immigrant/refugees : Many of them face language barriers, social isolation, and problems in accessing health care and other programs/services

AI – Robeson (7,527)

Asian – Wake (3.4%)

AA – Bertie, Hertford (53%)


Hispanic or Latino, 2010     

Total population – 800,120 80% of the total population is 0-40 years 61% is Mexican Age 60 and over – 27,339 (3.4%) 77% of people 65 and over live in family households 241 people 65 and over in group quarters

•60+ - Mecklenburg (4,183), Wake (2,846) •Is the person Hispanic, Spanish or Latino origin/ What is the race?


Marital Status Age 65-74

Age 75-84

Age 85+

Unmarried Women

46.9

67.9

90.6

Unmarried Men

24.8

30.1

50.6

•Because men have shorter life expectancy •Men tend to marry younger women, at ages 65 and older •Women are more than twice as likely to be unmarried (widowed, divorced, separated, or never married) as men in their age group •Both widowhood and divorce affect emotional and economic well-being. •They may result in social isolation and reduce the likelihood of an available caregiver


Educational Attainment, 65 and Over Less than high school, no diploma

30.3%

High school graduate, GED or alternative

31.6%

Some college, no degree

16.1%

Associate's degree

4.0%

Bachelor's degree

10.8%

Graduate or professional degree

7.2%

•Older population grew up at a time when educational attainment was typically lower •Higher level of education – high income, higher standard of living, better health status

Hyde – Graduate (0%), High school or less (75%), Poverty rate (50%)


Poverty Status 65 – 74 years Below poverty 100-199% of poverty

75 and Over 9.0% 21.1%

Below poverty

13.7%

100-199% of poverty

30.2%

•Poverty rate increases with age. •Unmarried women have higher poverty rates •People living in poverty are at risk of having inadequate resources for housing, food, health care and other needs. • Present research shows that the poverty rate has risen

Poverty threshold in 2009 for person 65+ was $10,289


Employment Persons age 65 and over in civilian labor force (as % of age group)

14.5%

•Most people 65 and over retire (social security, pensions, savings..) •Some work out of economic necessity •Others for social contact, intellectual challenges or sense of value that work often provides •The difference between labor force participation in men and women has narrowed over time. * Labor force includes employed and unemployed

Unemployment was 4%. Research shows that older adults once laid off, have a higher waiting period to get another job compared to other age groups. Unemployment rate is higher for people with high school or less than high school degrees.


People in Civilian Labor Force, 2010 100% 80%

80.5% 62.6%

60% 40% 20%

15.3%

0% 45-54 years **As a % of civilian non-institutional population Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

55-64 years

65 years and over


Life Expectancy, 2009 NC Age Groups

Combined

60-64

22.8

65-69

19

70-74

15.5

75-79

12.3

80-84

9.5

85+

7.2

Source: NC Center for Health Statistics. Life Expectancy in North Carolina, 2009

ď Ž ď Ž

People are living longer than ever before. Women live longer than men. Increasing longevity - rising medical costs, increasing demands for health services, since older people are typically more vulnerable to chronic diseases


Housing for People 65 and Over 96.5% in households

3.5% in group quarters

(1,191,369)

(42,710)

68.6% in family households 31.4% in nonfamily households

38,676 in Nursing facilities 792 in Correctional facilities 2,641 in group homes‌ 273 other

A household includes all the people who occupy a housing unit as their usual place of residence.


Leading Causes of Death, 65+ Rank

Cause

1

Heart diseases

2

Cancer

3

Cerebrovascular diseases

4

Chronic lower respiratory diseases

5

Alzheimer’s disease

Source: NC Center for Health Statistics (2009). Leading Causes of Death – 2009.

Chronic health conditions affect quality of life, contribute to decline in functioning and ability to live independently for older adults. Some of these diseases to a great degree can be prevented or modified with interventions such as quitting smoking, having proper diet, and increasing physical activity. There are differences in the prevalence of certain chronic conditions by gender, race and ethnicity in people age 65 and over. Men report cancer as leading causes of death compared to women. African Americans and American Indians are at substantially higher risk for diabetes and Alzheimer’s diseases compared to whites


Disability Status, 65 and Over 80%

61%

60% 40% 17%

20%

22%

0% 0 disabilities

1 type of disability

2 or more types of disability

About 39% of the population 65+ have at least 1 type of disability. They may need more health care services and social support Disability is a long lasting physical, mental or emotional condition. This condition can make it difficult for a person to do activities such as walking, climbing stairs, dressing, bathing, learning or remembering.


Health Status, 65 and Over 100% 80% 60% 35%

40% 24% 20%

20%

11%

10%

0% Excellent

Very Good

Good

Fair

Poor

Proportion of people reporting good to excellent health decreases among the oldest age groups.

Poor health status is often in people with disabilities and chronic diseases


Baby Boomers         

47-65 years old Have distinct social and demographic attributes Posses more education Have more women in labor force More likely to occupy professional positions More racially and ethnically diverse Higher rates of divorce and separation Lower rates of marriage Fewer children - William H. Frey


Implications?‌.. Opportunities Challenges

Are we ready?


NC Aging Demographics