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Threat of the Mountain Pine Beetle to Saskatchewan, and Strategies for its Management

Rory McIntosh, Jeff Gooliaff and Brian Poniatowski Saskatchewan Ministry of Environment

and Steven Oldford & Colin Arndt BioForest Technologies Inc.


Overview….. • • • • •

What’s at stake? Risk Assessment Threats and Triggers Response action(s) 2014 and beyond?


Values at Risk….. • MPB poses a significant ecological and economic risk to Saskatchewan • Value of forest at risk is significant:    

43-50% softwood manufactured in SK is Jack pine Crown revenues from pine harvest averaged $1,200,000 before recent mill closures 20% volume of all trees South of Churchill is Jack pine. Rebounding forest industry depends on softwood component

• Many forest - dependent communities in North including:  Prince Albert, La Ronge, Meadow Lake, Nipawin and Creighton

• Many Provincial Parks at risk  Cypress Hills, Meadow Lake, La Ronge

• MPB POSES NATIONAL RISK  With confirmation of what we had expected – that MPB can use Jack pine host; MPB poses National threat


Mountain Pine Beetle • The unprecedented MPB outbreak in BC is estimated to kill about 60% of pine forests by 2021 • Peak outbreak affected approximately 18 million ha ~ area 5 x size of Vancouver Island • MPB have breached the Rockies (2006 and 2009) and have spread into the “hybrid corridor” in north central Alberta • The best approach to preventing the continued spread of MPB east is to slow beetle spread in E. Alberta • Vigilant survey, early detection and rapid response critical to protecting Saskatchewan forests

Lodgepole pine Ponderosa pine Mountain pine beetle Jack pine

Lodgepole/Jack hybrids

5


Strategic Approach 1. Prevention • • • •

Risk assessment Regulatory controls Surveillance; early detection and rapid aggressive response Communication, partnerships and collaboration

2. Suppression •

Minimize the impact of a major outbreak

RISK ANALYSIS


Outbreak reaches historic high (10 Million Ha) Outbreak exceeds historic high in 1985 (2 Million Ha)

2002

Outbreak reaches (8.5 Million Ha)

2003

2004

•AB aligns MPB mgmt with Parks Canada

2002

2005

•AB impose restrictions on MPB transport

•Current outbreak started Canmore (25 trees)

2003

2004

2008

2005

•SK designates “lands” & MPB as “Pest” FRMA

2009

2006

2007

2008

2009

•SK draft MPB Strategy Framework •SK/AB regional •MPB Designation Hazard rating •Expand surveys in NW “lands” amended •SK MPB Symposium

2006

2007

2008

3 Million Ha

2011

2012

•NFPS MPB Workshop HINTON

2009

2010

}

2012

2011

2012

2011

•2011-13 AB/SK MOA SMAC FORMED •Attend MPB CFS RA symposium

2010

NATIONAL FOREST PEST STRATEGY

2013

2014

•Beetles detected east of Fort McMurray

•Jack pine host confirmed

•SK Minister Attends Calgary MPB Summit

2005

2010

•2nd (largest) Mass dispersal event •MPB reach Slave Lk

•SK/AB complete regional hazard rating

•MPB killed trees detected in CHIPP

2004

2007

•1st Mass dispersal event •Calgary MPB Summit

•BC/AB MOU

•MPB pine import storage restriction order under FRMA

2003

Outbreak declines (6 Million Ha)

2006

Environment and Sustainable Resource Development

2002

SALVAGE OPERATIONS Mid-term wood supply

2013

}

2014

•2014-17 AB/SK MOA Renew????

•Expand leading edge detection grid in NW

2013

2014


The Trigger‌..

Map credit: Dr. Barry Cooke, CFS


Rate of Spread‌..

Map credit: Dr. Barry Cooke, CFS


The Extent‌..

2013

Map credit: Aaron McGill AESRD


West block Cypress Hills

What is being done? RISK ANALYSIS - STAND SUSCEPTIBILITY MAPPING

INCREASED MONITORING AND RESPONSE

• Regulatory controls and restrictions • Regional Risk Analysis and training • Support R&D MPB in Jack pine (TRIA Network) • Increased surveillance, boreal and parks • Directed response action (Cypress Hills) • Participate in fRI MPBEP • Building multi-jurisdictional partnerships

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Collaborative Response Action • Memorandum of agreement (MOA) between governments of AB and SK • Completed third year of multi-year agreement • Annual “work plan” developed through SMAC meetings • Work focuses on “leading edge” of outbreak  Tree baiting network to monitor leading edge;  Level 1 control action in Slave Lake and Marten Hills areas


SK & AB leading edge….. Work focuses on “leading edge” of outbreak in AB • Deployment and maintenance of the tree baiting network to monitor beetle presence in the leading edge; • Level 1 (Fall & burn) control action in Slave Lake and Marten Hills areas

Map credit: Aaron McGill AESRD 13


Increased monitoring – boreal tree-baiting


Increased monitoring - boreal Aerial Surveys North CLAWR


Increased monitoring - boreal Aerial Surveys South CLAWR


2014 and beyond… Rate of spread???

≠ Photo: L. Maclauchlan

Photo: R. McIntosh


The Leading Edge - Uncertainties • Poorly connected stands  But we don’t fully understand dispersal in novel environment • Climate suitability – low  but predicted to improve • Novel host environment  But Jack pine more attractive to MPB and less capable of defending themselves (Carroll 2013) NOW is the opportunity to slow the spread through aggressive action and drive leading edge populations into extinction


Cypress Hills Inter-provincial Park

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MPB West Block -2013

No. Trees Controlled 500 417

400 300 257

200

444

280

182

100 34

0

2

4

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

Year

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2014 and beyond….??? • Continue collaboration with AB to implement coordinated “slow the spread” action(s) IN Alberta • Continue to monitor tree baits in expanded grid to further delineate the leading edge and provide early detection capacity • Work to fill the knowledge gaps in high risk pathways (Cold Lake Air Weapons Range) • Continue to Support R&D initiatives (e.g. TRIAMPB Network; change detection mapping) to fill knowledge gaps and inform decisions


Thank you


Ministry of Environment Forest Service Branch Box 3003 Prince Albert, Canada S6V 6G1 www.environment.gov.sk.ca



03rorymcintosh