Modeling Methods and Data Sources Understanding the relationship between demographic trends and healthcare demand is crucial for strategic workforce planning and service delivery. Florida’s rapidly growing and aging population underscores the significant role of population dynamics in shaping the demand for healthcare services. Over the next 15 years, the state’s population is expected to increase by 17%, with the largest growth occurring among older adults aged 75 and above—an age group that disproportionately utilizes healthcare services. This section explores the methodologies and data sources used to estimate future healthcare demand, emphasizing the impact of demographic shifts, disease prevalence, and other health risk factors. By leveraging robust population projections and detailed health datasets, we provide insights into the anticipated healthcare needs across Florida’s diverse regions and age groups, setting the stage for targeted policy and workforce interventions.
Population Growth and Aging and Projected Demand for Healthcare Services Population growth and changing demographics are the primary factors driving the anticipated demand for healthcare services, including the demand for each profession, in the projected period. The impact of aging is particularly significant as older population groups tend to utilize healthcare services at a higher rate compared to younger age groups. To estimate the demand for healthcare services, we constructed a population database based upon on a representative sample of the resident population in each Florida county from 2022 to 2037. The database includes characteristics used to estimate the demand for healthcare services, such as demographic factors (age, sex, and race/ethnicity), health conditions and risk factors (arthritis, asthma, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, hypertension, history of heart attack, history of cancer, history of stroke, body weight status, and smoking status), household income range, and health insurance status (including insurance coverage, public insurance participation, and membership in managed care plans). Key data sources used to construct this file are Florida residents’ responses to the 2021 and 2022 American Community Survey (ACS), Florida residents’ responses to the 2021 and 2022 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), Florida county-specific data on prevalence of health risk factors from the 2022 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Places, and 2019 files from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) on the characteristics and prevalence of health risk factors of residents of nursing homes and residential care facilities in Florida.13–17 The population database starts with 2022 ACS data on a de-identified, representative sample of Florida households. For each person represented in the ACS, there is information on demographics, household income, and medical insurance type. The ACS identifies households living in the community, as well as households living in group settings such as nursing homes. The ACS does not, however, collect information on health risk factors and presence of disease. BRFSS, along with CMS surveys of residents in nursing homes and residential care facilities, collects information on health risk factors and presence of disease. 10