The two reports consider the effects of a range of carbon prices and a per capita CO2 emission allowance of 3.71 tonnes (4.37 tonnes less 5% for a transition fund, 9% for seqestration projects and 1% for overheads). Coal provides 93% of South Africa’s electrical energy and emissions from burning fossil fuels have doubled in the past 25 years. Demand for the country’s coal exports will decrease in time and there will be a strong incentive for the country to develop renewable sources of energy. Because of the high coal dependence, the initial impact of C&S would have a considerable negative effect on the country’s GDP whilst at the same time reducing extreme poverty and inequality. The richest three income deciles are net losers while the bottom seven are net winners. Over time there is likely to be a relative decline in long-distance international trade so that opportunities for import substitution will improve. In India C&S would have an all round positive effect with 90% of the population standing to gain. National income could double mainly because most people currently use little fossil energy. Incomes of the poorest 10% would increase 80 fold for a carbon price of 400 euro per tonne. I have sought to obtain the UK stance on reducing greenhouse gas emissions through a letter to my Member of Parliament. The reply he received from HM Treasury in 2008 suggest that the prospects for a proper consideration of Cap and Share in the UK do not look good “The UK is a strong supporter of the EU ETS and the Government is committed to building on the EU ETS as its main means of pricing carbon in the economy, and of ensuring that emissions are reduced cost-effectively. The scheme already covers approximately half of the UK and EU’s emissions, including emissions from electricity production. Its introduction in 2005 had led to the creation of a growing carbon market, valuing carbon by placing a limit on the overall quantity of CO2 which can be emitted. Links to credits from developing countries through the Clean Development Mechanism, or from developed countries though the Joint Implementation (JI), increase opportunities for emissions savings to be made at the point of A Science of Common Sense
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