MACRO VIEW
The Good US Retail Sales have recovered and have resumed their upward trajectory. US core CPI inflation was firmer than expected in July, increasing 0.3% MoM (2.2% YoY) The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 1.4 points to 104.7, with seven of 10 components advancing. The Bad While global growth news remains mixed, Chinese data has surprised consistently to the downside in past weeks : imports are down 5.6% from a year ago, industrial production at its slowest growth rate in 17 years… In Aug, the Consumer Sentiment Index decreased by -8.6%, the largest monthly decline since Dec. 12 In the US, industrial production is sluggish and housing data points to a substantial slowdown in the residential real estate sector The EU data is becoming more concerning with EU Industrial Production, ZEW German sentiment and German industrial output down The Ugly: Ugly yesterday, ugly today! Trade tensions (US-China, US-Europe) remain a key risk to our outlook. Our warry is that the trade conflict escalates out of control The financial and economic implications of Brexit are concerning (especially as the no-deal option becomes more plausible than ever), but no one seems to care, at this stage Main systemic risk resides in China because of high leverage, growing indebtedness, and current unsustainable housing bubble. 4 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com