Page 1

JUNE 2019

N AT I O N A L H O U S I N G M A R K E T U P D AT E


KEY STATS E N G L A ND A N D WAL ES

£675,000

£993,443

-2.63%

£598

£49.8bn

15,188

LATEST DATA

QUARTERLY CHANGE

ANNUAL CHANGE

MORTGAGE APPROVALS

66,261

-0.1%

3.8%

RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS

99,420

-0.2%

0.8%

GROSS MORTGAGE LENDING

£22.7bn

-0.8%

0.5%

NEW HOME STARTS (QT)

29,310

-24.6%

-3.0%

NEW HOME COMPLETIONS (QT)

39,170

21.9%

1.6%

2 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL


MARKET OVERVIEW I NEE YE A NAD HO RSS 2 0S1U8N -S HTH R STH AW T EWA Although theafestive is upon us,showers there is little cheer andand ‘good will to all’ May proved monthseason of sunshine and bothseasonal meteorologically metaphorically, evident across thea political arena. Brexit continuesinto the headlines as indicators all eyes with little sign of period of warm, dry weather thedominate weeks ahead. Economic await the final outcome. Whatever there are sure to be implications are broadly sunny, while the forecastthe forconclusion, the housing market remains rather cloudy. for sterling and economy. As 2018 draws any closer to predicting Politically it’sthe currently unpredictable, cool to anda close, with aare fairwe number of heavy, and evenwhat we can expect in 2019? thundery showers. The long-term forecast remains difficult to predict. GLIMMERS OF SUNSHINE GLIMMERS OFremains SEASONAL CHEER UK employment buoyant, and although inflation

rose to 2.1%2018 in April, thanks to athe risehousing in energy prices, Throughout salesmainly volumes across market this was a lower rise than many predicted. Wage growth have struggled, thanks to the backdrop of lower buyer continuesand to low outpace and atconfidence. 2.45%, the average demand levelsinflation of consumer However, mortgage the Bank of England, latest data interest from therate, Bankasofreported England by indicates mortgage is historically low; positive for household finances. UK approvals in October werenews 4% higher than a year ago, while consumer confidence alsohitproved sunnier in May, the since GfK the total value of lending its highest monthly figure of theto the surgetracker in transactions to the introduction monthly seeing aprior three-point boost compared additional 3% SDLTwere levy more in March 2016.about Moretheir salespersonal took April. Consumers positive place across the UK in October than in any month since financial situations and less negative about the general July 2017, while Rightmove properties in 2018 financial situation acrossdata theshows UK. However, at -10, the to index date have taken an average of 61 days from the start of continues to be in negative territory, its last positive reading marketing to being sold-subject-to-contract, one day back in January 2016. shorter than last year and an improvement on the 65 days witnessed in 2016.

CLOUDY SKIES

Despite the rise in the UK base rate in the summer, April saw interest an uptickrates in mortgage approvals according to that mortgage remain low. UK Finance report the Bank of England, with a 3.8% year-on-year rise, while at 2.23% the current average mortgage interest rate is lower mortgage borrowing stable.ago, Delving than the rate both fiveremained and ten years 3.14%deeper and 6.11% however, UKAdjusting Finance report remortgage respectively. for inflation, wages approvals have risen are overon the past rise, year, whilepositive new home-owner loans andfinances. first-time buyer the news for household mortgages were lower than a year ago. Remortgage activity rose for the twelfth consecutive month in March, many SENSE AND SENSIBILITY borrowers continuing to lock into attractive fixed-rate deals Sensible pricing remains crucial to achieving a sale. The of as current products reach an end. The Royal Institute price of a property fell by 1.7% in November, average asking Chartered Surveyors report that demand for properties fell the largest November fall since 2012 according again in April, for the ninth consecutive month, to while the Rightmove, while annual house price growth has agent moderated number of house hunters registered per estate branch throughout the year. Annual house price growth the fell by 10% according to the National Associationacross of Estate UK in the year to was September was 3.5%, down from agents. Demand at its lowest level recorded in 4.6% April a year ago, according to the official UK House Price Index. since 2008. Despite falling demand, sales volumes are largely Average prices across London remain slightly lower than a remaining stable. 99,420 residential transactions took place in year ago, the capital currently feeling the brunt of Brexit April according to the HMRC, 0.8% higher than a year ago, uncertainty. volumes just 0.2% lower quarter on quarter.

COOL AND DAMP Across the UK prime markets, the average price of property Many were hopeful the Brexit extension would allay is down a fraction on a year ago. However, across many uncertainty across the housing market for a short time, but assets 2018 has not proved momentous. In the year to the this appears unlikely as the UK political landscape has been end of November the average price of gold has fallen by tossed in the air in recent weeks. There remains no central over 1%, the stock market (FTSE 100) by 6%, while the S&P agreement on the direction of Brexit; the resignation of the Global Luxury Index is 5.5% lower than a year ago, despite Prime Minister, European and recent polls fine wines and classic carselection boastingresults small positive returns. creating waves among the UK political establishment. At Many commentators report evidence of pent-up demand afor minimum, the coming months will see new leaders elected higher priced properties, with prospective vendors for bothfor themore Conservatives and they Liberal Democrats, waiting clarity before commit to theirbut whether purchase.a second referendum or general election emerge from the debris as the dust settles remains to be seen. The value of sterling fell sharply against both the Euro and A CRYSTAL BALL US$ during May, political uncertainty placing the pound Unsurprisingly current forecasts issued with under increasedallpressure, a positivefor for2019 thosearepurchasing a caveat relating to a deal being brokered between the UK from overseas. and the EU. The Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, has reiterated his forecast that in the event of a noTHE UK’S PRIME MARKETS deal Brexit the economy may fall by over 8% and average house prices of by the up to 30%. Current forecasts from the The fortunes UK’s prime markets are currently Office for Budget Responsibility point to employment mixed, with a 50:50 split of regions experiencing primelevels continuingprice to rise in 2019, along with average while property growth compared to price falls.earnings, The average inflation is predicted to edge back to the government’ s 2.0% price of a prime property across the UK has fallen just below target. This may well require a gradual rise in interest rates, the £1 million threshold, a year-on-year fall of 5.1% in the although the current view is that the base rate will rise to average price of a prime property across London being a just 1.5 – 1.75% by 2021. significant influencing factor. Prime property price growth remains in positive across the East and West Across the housingterritory market, as per 2018, many Midlands, along with thethe South West, South East and commentators expect wider UK market to outperform Yorkshire andaverage the Humber. The threshold for prime London. An of independent forecasts predicts price property and the of such property varies growth across theaverage UK will price be 2.2% during 2019. In comparison, those considerably acrosscommentating these regions. on the London market anticipate 2019 may well prove another year of falling prices. Compound growth across the UK is anticipated to be in the region of 11% – 14% over the next five years. Forecasts for London vary widely, from less than 5% to over 10%. Only time will tell which trajectory is more likely to be true. PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 3


REGIONAL P R E M I U M M A R K E T S : TOP 5 %

£346,000 £449,904 –1.2% £242

£415,000 £568,809 –0.3% £310

£405,000 £537,092 +0.3% £298

£471,000 £624,587 +3.2% £344

£435,000 £561,053 +3.3% £300

£376,000 £477,215 –0.2% £272

£591,000 £789,119 +1.9% £425

4 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL

£679,000 £914,687 –0.2% £487

£793,000 £1,102,784 +0.8% £541

£1,400,000 £2,287,196 –5.1% £1,243


NATIONAL P R E M I U M M A R K E T S : TOP 5 %

PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD

The premium price threshold is the value over which the top 5% of property sales occur. The chart shows a rolling 12 month change in the average price paid for premium properties compared to the previous 12 month.

ENGLAND & WALES

3%

2%

1%

0%

-1%

-2%

-3% MAY 2018

JUN 2018

JUL 2018

AUG 2018

SEP 2018

OCT 2018

NOV 2018

DEC 2018

JAN 2019

FEB 2019

MAR 2019

APR 2019

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS, PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD

An individual premium price threshold is calculated for each property type based on sold prices in the last 12 months. The chart shows the average price paid per square foot for all of these premium properties.

ENGLAND & WALES

£1,200

£1075 £900

£687

£600

£535

£537

SEMI-DETACHED

DETACHED

£598

£300

0 FLAT/APARTMENT

TERRACED

ALL PROPERTY Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 5


TRANSACTIONS A N D K EY P R I C E P O I N T S

ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS THE COUNTRY

All proper ty

ENGLAND & WALES

Chart shows a rolling 12 month change in transactions compared to the previous 12 month period for all properties and those priced at £1m or over.

£1m+

15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% APR 2018

MAY 2018

JUN 2018

JUL 2018

AUG 2018

SEP 2018

OCT 2018

NOV 2018

DEC 2018

JAN 2019

FEB 2019

MAR 2019

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

£229,584 £675,000 £993,443

£216,174 £700,262 £1,118,318

£179,120 £549,910 £853,542

£214,783 £538,744 £739,259

£348,667 £858,383 £1,225,056

£232,640 £671,238 £973,114

6 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL


NATIONAL MA IN S TR E AM MAR K E T

ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS THE REGION

Rolling 12 month change in the average price paid for all properties sold compared to the previous 12 month period.

ENGLAND & WALES

3.5% 3% 2.5% 2% 1.5% 1% 0.5% 0% MAY 2018

JUN 2018

JUL 2018

AUG 2018

SEP 2018

OCT 2018

NOV 2018

DEC 2018

JAN 2019

FEB 2019

MAR 2019

APR 2019

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS OF ALL PROPERTY SALES

Average price paid per square foot for all property transactions.

ENGLAND & WALES

£400

£300

£306 £274 £241

£228

£200

£200 £100

0 FLAT/APARTMENT

TERRACED

SEMI-DETACHED

DETACHED

ALL PROPERTY Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 7


AVAILABILITY A N D TI M E TO S E L L

AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS TO SELL

NATIONAL

Average number of days from when a property is first marketed on Rightmove to when the estate agent marks it as “sold subject to contract”.

100

80

77 72 65

60

61

59

56

56

57

60

61

61

65

70

71

67

64

40

20

0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 Source: Rightmove

PROPERTIES AVAILABLE TO BUY PER AGENT

NATIONAL

Average stock per agent calculated by the average number of properties an agent has on Rightmove each day across the month.

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 Source: Rightmove

T: +44 (0)207 079 1515 E: parklane@fineandcountry.com fineandcountry.com

dataloft.co.uk

Disclaimer :This repor t is produced for general information only.Whilst ever y effor t has been made to ensure the accuracy of this publication, Dataloft Ltd accepts no liability for any loss or damage of any nature arising from its use or from any changes made to Dataloft content by Inform users. Reproduction of all or par t of the repor t in any form is prohibited without written permission from Dataloft Ltd. Repor t edited by Inform user and published on 04-06-2019.

Profile for Fine & Country

National housing market update - June 2019  

National housing market update - June 2019