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DECEMBER 2019

N AT I O N A L H O U S I N G M A R K E T U P D AT E


KEY STATS E N G L A ND A N D WAL ES

£673,000

£990,548

-2.71%

£581

£47.1bn

14,534

LATEST DATA

QUARTERLY CHANGE

ANNUAL CHANGE

64,602

-1.4%

-3.3%

RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS

103,680

3.1%

4.3%

GROSS MORTGAGE LENDING

£21.8 bn

1.8%

-4.0%

NEW HOME STARTS (QT)

32,180

12.2%

-8.6%

NEW HOME COMPLETIONS (QT)

32,840

-16.2%

14.6%

MORTGAGE APPROVALS

2 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL


MARKET OVERVIEW M EA SYECAORU N DTO W NS 2 0C1H8R I-S TTH THT A WA Although the festive season isstart upon there is littletoseasonal cheer ‘goodtheir will to all’ Millions across the country theus,countdown Christmas by and opening advent evident across thebut political arena. which Brexit party continues to dominate headlines as all eyes doors each day, who knows will be behind thethedoor of number 10 await the final outcome. there election are sure in tonearly be implications Downing Street. Time isWhatever ticking to the the conclusion, first December a century.for The sterling the economy. As 2018 draws toresilient a close,inare we any to predicting what housingand market has remained remarkably a year thatcloser has been dominated by we canand expect in 2019? Brexit annual price growth remains in positive territory across much of the country. DIVIDED OR IN SYNC

A poll by You Gov indicates 14% of the electorate consider GLIMMERS SEASONAL CHEER housing a ‘top OF 3 priority’ in this year’s election, 3% fewer than in 2017. Brexit (68%) healthcare (40%) dominate voters’ Throughout 2018 salesand volumes across the housing market priorities as they did two years ago. However, while the have struggled, thanks to the backdrop of lower buyer main political parties offerofdifferent solutions to the However, current Brexit demand and lowalllevels consumer confidence. stalemate there are significant threads of commonality latest data from the Bank of England indicates mortgageacross their manifestos in terms housing approvals in October wereof4% higherpolicy. than aIncreasing year ago, house while building affordable housing, the total and valuethe ofprovision lending hitofitsgenuinely highest monthly figure since whatever thetransactions definition of ‘affordable’ may be, is inherent of the the surge in prior to the introduction in them all,3% as SDLT is the levy desire to improve environmental additional in March 2016.the More sales took efficiency of the the UK homes we live in. Boosting home ownership place across in October than in any month since July 2017, while Rightmove shows properties in 2018 toor is mentioned, whether data through reforming Help-to-Buy date haveoffering taken andiscounts average of days the start of with schemes for61 local orfrom first-time buyers, marketing to being sold-subject-to-contract, one day all parties also advocating an additional property surcharge for shorter than last year and an residents. improvement on the purchases made by non-UK Reforms to 65 thedays private witnessed in 2016. rental sector in terms of deposits, no-fault evictions and national licensing also receive manifesto pledges. Despite the rise in the UK base rate in the summer, mortgage interest rates remain low. UK Finance report that ALL I WANT FOR CHRISTMAS IS… CERTAINTY at 2.23% the current average mortgage interest rate is lower than the rate both five and ten years ago, 3.14% and 6.11% Rightmove report the for impending and ongoing Brexit respectively. Adjusting inflation,election wages have risen over uncertainty led to a 15% year-on-year fall in new sellers in the past year, positive news for household finances. October, as consumers ‘wait and see’ and mortgage approvals were 3.3% lower year-on year. Against the backdrop of a fall SENSE AND SENSIBILITY in instructions and low buyer demand, sales volumes have Sensible to achieving a sale.the Theyear. remainedpricing underremains 100,000crucial per month throughout price ofand a property by 1.7% in November, average askingbrackets Lower price youngerfell buyers are currently fuelling the largest November fall since 2012 according to the market, with sales prices at least level to asking prices at Rightmove, house price has moderated the presentwhile time annual for properties listedgrowth at or below £500,000 throughout the year. Annual house price growth across the according to the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors. UK in the year September was 3.5%, down from 4.6% a Consumer andtoeconomic confidence remains subdued, year ago, according to the official UK House Price Index. certainty and not sprouts undoubtedly the craving for this Average prices across slightly lower a Christmas. Despite theLondon currentremain environment, price than growth year ago, the capital currently feeling the brunt of Brexit uncertainty.

across much of the country remains positive, with prices across northern regions and Wales over 2% higher year-on-year. Across prime average price of property There arethe alsoUK signs thatmarkets, London the prices have stabilised, latest is down a fraction on a year ago. However, across many data showing month-on-month price growth across both assets not proved momentous. In the to the inner and2018 outerhas London. Zoopla report fewer thanyear a quarter end of November the average price of gold has fallen by (23%) of London postcodes registered negative property price over 1%, the stock market (FTSE 100) by 6%, while the S&P growth in October, down from 82% a year ago and the lowest Global Luxury Index is 5.5% lower than a year ago, despite coverage of price falls since May 2017. fine wines and classic cars boasting small positive returns. Many commentators report evidence of pent-up demand THE PRIME MARKETS for higher priced properties, with prospective vendors waiting for more clarity before they commit to their Properties purchase.priced over £1 million continue to experience price reductions prior to sale, with Rightmove reporting large detached family homes (4+ beds) are 1.2% less expensive than A CRYSTAL a year ago. In sevenBALL regions of the UK the average price of a prime propertyallis current less thanforecasts 1% lower a year ago, with Unsurprisingly forthan 2019 are issued with significant available across London, where the average a caveatdeals relating to a deal being brokered between the UK price a prime property has of fallen over As toMark 2020, andofthe EU. The Governor theby Bank of 6%. England, forecasts on a his series of assumptions event oftoa our noCarney,are hasbased reiterated forecast that in the relating deal Brexitwith the Europe. economy fall byofover 8% and average relationship Anmay average independent forecasts house price pricesgrowth by up to 30%.the Current the2020, predicts across UK willforecasts be 1.4%from during Office Budgetfor Responsibility employment levels while the for forecasts London varypoint fromtonegative growth continuing to rise in 2019, with average earnings, (-3%) to growth in the regionalong of 1%. Compound growth while over inflation is predicted to edge back to the government’ s the next five years (2020–2024) is predicted to be in the 2.0% target. wellUK, require a gradual riseset in to interest rates, region of This 15% may for the northern regions outperform the base rate will rise although the current view is that their southern counterparts. Interest rates are anticipatedtoto 1.75% 2021.of 2020, and possibly up to 2% by risejust to 1.5 1% –over theby course 2024, while set to remain around Across theinflation housinglooks market, as per 2018, many 1.9%, slightly below the government’s Rental pricetogrowth may commentators expect 2% the target. wider UK market outperform well outstripAn property over the coming year, with price London. averageprices of independent forecasts predicts average rents across UK predicted to rise2019. by between growth across the the UK will be 2.2% during In 12% and 15% over the next five years. 2020 is set to be comparison, those commentating on the London market another interesting year for the property market. anticipate 2019 may well prove another year of falling prices. Compound growth across the UK is anticipated to be in the region of 11% – 14% over the next five years. Forecasts for London vary widely, from less than 5% to over 10%. Only time will tell which trajectory is more likely to be true. PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 3


REGIONAL P R E M I U M M A R K E T S : TOP 5 %

£350,000 £451,072 –1.1% £237

£414,000 £569,698 –0.3% £301

£404,000 £537,201 –0.4% £285

£469,000 £613,997 –0.9% £313

£433,000 £558,263 –0.0% £275

£376,000 £477,441 –1.7% £262

£586,000 £790,141 –0.2% £389

4 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL

£681,000 £914,065 –0.9% £457

£790,000 £1,097,435 –0.0% £482

£1,400,000 £2,260,014 –6.3% £1,176


NATIONAL P R E M I U M M A R K E T S : TOP 5 %

PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD

The premium price threshold is the value over which the top 5% of property sales occur. The chart shows a rolling 12 month change in the average price paid for premium properties compared to the previous 12 month.

ENGLAND & WALES

0% -0.5% -1% -1.5% -2% -2.5% -3% -3.5% NOV 2018

DEC 2018

JAN 2019

FEB 2019

MAR 2019

APR 2019

MAY 2019

JUN 2019

JUL 2019

AUG 2019

SEP 2019

OCT 2019

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS, PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD

An individual premium price threshold is calculated for each property type based on sold prices in the last 12 months. The chart shows the average price paid per square foot for all of these premium properties.

ENGLAND & WALES

£1,200

£1078 £900

£600

£634

£581 £496

£485

SEMI-DETACHED

DETACHED

£300

0 FLAT/APARTMENT

TERRACED

ALL PROPERTY Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 5


TRANSACTIONS A N D K EY P R I C E P O I N T S

ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS THE COUNTRY

All proper ty

ENGLAND & WALES

Chart shows a rolling 12 month change in transactions compared to the previous 12 month period for all properties and those priced at £1m or over.

£1m+

0% -2.5% -5% -7.5% -10% -12.5% OCT 2018

NOV 2018

DEC 2018

JAN 2019

FEB 2019

MAR 2019

APR 2019

MAY 2019

JUN 2019

JUL 2019

AUG 2019

SEP 2019

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

£229,311 £673,000 £990,548

£214,374 £700,058 £1,098,866

£178,636 £549,997 £855,900

£215,305 £537,137 £738,544

£349,757 £854,353 £1,223,357

£232,591 £667,537 £969,134

6 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL


NATIONAL MA IN S TR E AM MAR K E T

ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS THE REGION

Rolling 12 month change in the average price paid for all properties sold compared to the previous 12 month period.

ENGLAND & WALES

2.5%

2%

1.5%

1%

0.5%

0% NOV 2018

DEC 2018

JAN 2019

FEB 2019

MAR 2019

APR 2019

MAY 2019

JUN 2019

JUL 2019

AUG 2019

SEP 2019

OCT 2019

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS OF ALL PROPERTY SALES

Average price paid per square foot for all property transactions.

ENGLAND & WALES

£400

£300

£330 £273 £245

£231

£200

£202 £100

0 FLAT/APARTMENT

TERRACED

SEMI-DETACHED

DETACHED

ALL PROPERTY Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 7


AVAILABILITY A N D TI M E TO S E L L

AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS TO SELL

NATIONAL

Average number of days from when a property is first marketed on Rightmove to when the estate agent marks it as “sold subject to contract”.

100

80

77

72 65 60

61 59 60 61 61 56 56 57

65

70

71

67 64 63 62 62 62 62 64

40

20

0 JAN FEB MARAPR MAY JUN JUL AUGSEP OCTNOVDEC JAN FEB MARAPR MAY JUNEJULY AUGSEP OCT 2018201820182018 20182018201820182018 2018201820182019 20192019201920192019 2019201920192019 Source: Rightmove

PROPERTIES AVAILABLE TO BUY PER AGENT

NATIONAL

Average stock per agent calculated by the average number of properties an agent has on Rightmove each day across the month.

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 JAN FEB MARAPR MAY JUN JUL AUGSEP OCTNOVDEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNEJULY AUGSEP OCT 20182018 20182018 201820182018 20182018 20182018 20182019 20192019 201920192019 20192019 20192019 Source: Rightmove

T: +44 (0)207 079 1515 E: parklane@fineandcountry.com fineandcountry.com

dataloft.co.uk

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Profile for Fine & Country

Fine & Country National Housing Market Update - December 2019  

Fine & Country National Housing Market Update - December 2019