OCTOBER 2019
N AT I O N A L H O U S I N G M A R K E T U P D AT E
KEY STATS E N G L A ND A N D WAL ES
£672,000
£990,976
-2.63%
£577
£47.1bn
14,463
LATEST DATA
QUARTERLY CHANGE
ANNUAL CHANGE
MORTGAGE APPROVALS
65,545
2.3%
-0.9%
RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS
99,890
-3.5%
0.9%
GROSS MORTGAGE LENDING
£22.0 bn
-1.3%
0.8%
NEW HOME STARTS (QT)
32,180
12.2%
-8.6%
NEW HOME COMPLETIONS (QT)
32,840
-16.2%
14.6%
2 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL
MARKET OVERVIEW ITT HA T T WA S 2 0 1 8 - STH EIN YEGA T R I GTH Although the festive season is upon us, there ispolitical little seasonal and ‘good willand to itall’is In yet another historic month in Parliament, waterscheer remain unsettled evident across theaspolitical Brexit continues to dominate headlineswater as allineyes only speculation to whatarena. will happen next. Much of the UKthe is treading the await the finaltooutcome. thehousing conclusion, there sure to be Property implications for countdown October Whatever 31st and the market is are no exception. prices sterling and the economy. As 2018 draws to a close, are welow any interest closer torates predicting what and sales volumes in the main remain steady, with record supporting we expect demand in 2019? from home owners using a mortgage. the can continued RECESSION UNLIKELY GLIMMERS OFonSEASONAL The latest results the state of theCHEER UK economy
have eased concerns the country fallen Throughout 2018 salesthat volumes acrosswill thehave housing market into recession in the third quarter. The UK economy have struggled, thanks to the backdrop of lower buyergrew by 0.3% and in July, expected. Meanwhile UK demand lowstronger levels ofthan consumer confidence. However, inflation to 1.7% in August (downindicates from 2.1% in July), its latest datafellfrom the Bank of England mortgage lowest rate the end 2016. Wages comfortably approvals in since October wereof4% higher thannow a year ago, while exceed welcome to figure household the totalinflation, value of providing lending hita its highest boost monthly since introduction therates the surge The in transactions prior to finances. Bank of England hasthe warned thoughofthat additional 3% SDLT Marchof2016. MoreBrexit sales as took may go ‘either way’ levy in thein event a no deal place across the UK in October than in any month since July uncertainty persists. Rates may stay ultra-low or rise sooner 2017, while Rightmove data shows properties in 2018 to than expected. The Chancellor, Sajid Javid has however date have taken an average of 61 days the start promised “a significant economic policyfrom response” in of the marketing being Brexit. sold-subject-to-contract, one day event of a to no-deal shorter than last year and an improvement on the 65 days witnessed in 2016.
CHANGING CYCLES
Despite the rise in the UK base rate in the summer, The usual interest cycle of rates the housing been altered mortgage remain market low. UKhas Finance report that thanks to the continued Brexit uncertainty. Therate summer at 2.23% the current average mortgage interest is lower period proved busier than many anticipated, prospective than the rate both five and ten years ago, 3.14% and 6.11% purchasers seeking to close deals ahead the risen anticipated respectively. Adjusting for inflation, wagesofhave over Brexit However, there is little sign that this the pastdeadline. year, positive newsasforyet household finances. is continuing into the autumn, with the average asking price of a new AND to market property falling by 0.2% in September. SENSE SENSIBILITY Albeit small, this is the first fall at this time of year since Sensible pricing remains crucial to achieving a sale. 2010. The number of new properties entering the The market price of a property fell by 1.7% in November, average asking fell 7.8% year on year, with all regions experiencing a drop. the largest November since buyers 2012 according to Properties continue tofall secure quickest across the Rightmove, whileMidlands; annual house growth continue has moderated East and West these price two regions to throughout year. Annual houseprice pricegrowth growthfor across outperformthe in terms of property primethe UK in the year to September was 3.5%, down from 4.6% a market properties. year ago, according to the official UK House Price Index. Average prices across London remain slightly lower than a year ago, the capital currently feeling the brunt of Brexit uncertainty.
INVESTORS REMAIN HESITANT Across the UK prime markets, the average price of property UK Finance data indicates that new mortgages for home is down a fraction on a year ago. However, across many purchase are at their highest level since 2008, with close to assets 2018 has not proved momentous. In the year to the three-quarters of a million new loans completed in the year end of November the average price of gold has fallen by to July. However, cash buyers remain hesitant in current market over 1%, the stock market (FTSE 100) by 6%, while the S&P conditions. At the height of the market in 2013/2014, before both Global Luxury Index is 5.5% lower than a year ago, despite taxation changes and the EU month-on-month fine wines and classic carsreferendum, boasting small positive returns.one thirdMany of all property purchases across England and Wales were commentators report evidence of pent-up demand cash for purchases (UKHPI). In March 2016, prior to the introduction higher priced properties, with prospective vendors of thewaiting 3% stamp duty clarity levy, the proportion of cashtopurchases for more before they commit their soared to 37%. However, since the start of 2018 levels have purchase. gradually fallen. Today month-on-month the proportion of cash sales is just 27%, across London just 18%, while UK Finance A CRYSTAL BALL report new investor purchases using a mortgage have fallen all current forecasts for 2019 issued with someUnsurprisingly 30% since 2016. For those purchasing fromare overseas, a caveat relating to a deal being brokered between the UK effective discounts in many currencies remain at over 20% and the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark compared toEU. pre The referendum levels. Carney, has reiterated his forecast that in the event of a noBrexit the economy may fall by over 8% and average THEdeal UK’S PRIME MARKETS house prices by up to 30%. Current forecasts from the Office for Budgetcontinues Responsibility to employment The London market to actpoint as a drag on prime levels continuing to rise in 2019, along with average while property prices, which have registered their tenth earnings, consecutive inflation is predicted to edge back to the government’ s 2.0% month of annual price falls. At £2.28 million the average price target. This may well require a gradual rise in interest rates, of a prime market property across the capital is close to 6% although the current view is that the base rate will rise to lower than a year ago; the average price of prime property per just 1.5 – 1.75% by 2021. square foot now below £1,200. Despite average prices in many regions lower a yearmarket, ago, the threshold Across thethan housing as price per 2018, manyfor prime property has risen orexpect remained stableUK in all regions from commentators the wider market to apart outperform London. The threshold in of theindependent capital is now £60,000 less than London. An average forecasts predicts price this time twelve months ago. are growth across the UK willAlthough be 2.2% some duringcommentators 2019. In comparison, those commentating the London market speculating the bottom of the London on market, until there is 2019 maya well prove feels another of falling clarityanticipate over Brexit such prediction justyear too hard to call. prices. Compound growth across the UK is anticipated to be in the region of 11% – 14% over the next five years. Forecasts for London vary widely, from less than 5% to over 10%. Only time will tell which trajectory is more likely to be true. PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 3
REGIONAL P R E M I U M M A R K E T S : TOP 5 %
£346,000 £448,855 –1.4% £235
£414,000 £568,953 –0.3% £298
£400,000 £530,376 –2.5% £282
£470,000 £618,782 +0.9% £315
£435,000 £558,881 +1.2% £274
£378,000 £478,872 –0.3% £264
£589,000 £789,336 +1.1% £385
4 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL
£680,000 £913,236 –0.3% £453
£792,000 £1,105,306 +1.4% £484
£1,400,000 £2,276,928 –5.8% £1,190
NATIONAL P R E M I U M M A R K E T S : TOP 5 %
PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD
The premium price threshold is the value over which the top 5% of property sales occur. The chart shows a rolling 12 month change in the average price paid for premium properties compared to the previous 12 month.
ENGLAND & WALES
0% -0.5% -1% -1.5% -2% -2.5% -3% -3.5% SEP 2018
OCT 2018
NOV 2018
DEC 2018
JAN 2019
FEB 2019
MAR 2019
APR 2019
MAY 2019
JUN 2019
JUL 2019
AUG 2019
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS, PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD
An individual premium price threshold is calculated for each property type based on sold prices in the last 12 months. The chart shows the average price paid per square foot for all of these premium properties.
ENGLAND & WALES
£1,200
£1079 £900
£600
£632
£577 £495
£484
SEMI-DETACHED
DETACHED
£300
0 FLAT/APARTMENT
TERRACED
ALL PROPERTY Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 5
TRANSACTIONS A N D K EY P R I C E P O I N T S
ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS THE COUNTRY
All proper ty
ENGLAND & WALES
Chart shows a rolling 12 month change in transactions compared to the previous 12 month period for all properties and those priced at £1m or over.
£1m+
0%
-5%
-10%
-15% AUG 2018
SEP 2018
OCT 2018
NOV 2018
DEC 2018
JAN 2019
FEB 2019
MAR 2019
APR 2019
MAY 2019
JUN 2019
JUL 2019
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
£228,538 £672,000 £990,976
£212,830 £691,136 £1,102,185
£178,086 £549,026 £855,851
£214,750 £536,721 £737,656
£349,066 £854,160 £1,223,925
£232,051 £668,543 £968,783
6 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL
NATIONAL MA IN S TR E AM MAR K E T
ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS THE REGION
Rolling 12 month change in the average price paid for all properties sold compared to the previous 12 month period.
ENGLAND & WALES
2.5%
2%
1.5%
1%
0.5%
0% SEP 2018
OCT 2018
NOV 2018
DEC 2018
JAN 2019
FEB 2019
MAR 2019
APR 2019
MAY 2019
JUN 2019
JUL 2019
AUG 2019
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS OF ALL PROPERTY SALES
Average price paid per square foot for all property transactions.
ENGLAND & WALES
£400
£300
£331 £272 £244
£230
£200
£202 £100
0 FLAT/APARTMENT
TERRACED
SEMI-DETACHED
DETACHED
ALL PROPERTY Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 7
AVAILABILITY A N D TI M E TO S E L L
AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS TO SELL
NATIONAL
Average number of days from when a property is first marketed on Rightmove to when the estate agent marks it as “sold subject to contract”.
100
80
77
72 65 60
61 59 60 61 61 56 56 57
65
70
71
67 64 63 62 62 62
40
20
0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 Source: Rightmove
PROPERTIES AVAILABLE TO BUY PER AGENT
NATIONAL
Average stock per agent calculated by the average number of properties an agent has on Rightmove each day across the month.
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 Source: Rightmove
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Disclaimer :This repor t is produced for general information only.Whilst ever y effor t has been made to ensure the accuracy of this publication, Dataloft Ltd accepts no liability for any loss or damage of any nature arising from its use or from any changes made to Dataloft content by Inform users. Reproduction of all or par t of the repor t in any form is prohibited without written permission from Dataloft Ltd. Repor t edited by Inform user and published on 01-10-2019.