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Initial Perspectives


Copyright Š 2009 Future Agenda www.futureagenda.org Edited by Tim Jones and Caroline Dewing Designed and typeset by Julie Bartram All images sourced from iStockphoto Sponsored by Vodafone Group Plc All rights reserved. Permission should be sought from the copyright owner before any part of this publication is reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any other means. Agreement will normally be given provided that the source is acknowledged. The copyright owner does not accept any responsibility whatsoever, in negligence or otherwise, for any loss or damage arising from the possession or use of this publication whether in terms of correctness, completeness or otherwise. The application, therefore, by the user of the contents of this publication or any part thereof, is solely at the user’s own risk. The copyright owner furthermore expressly states that any opinions given in this document are the opinions of the individual authors which are not necessarily supported by the views of their employers, the copyright owner or any company forming part of the Vodafone Group of companies. A CIP Catalogue record for this books is available from the British Library ISBN 978-0-9549853-1-8 Printed in the UK To keep the environmental impact of this document to a minimum, we have given careful consideration to the production process. The paper used in the production of this document is 55% recycled from de-inked post consumer waste. It was manufactured at mills with ISO 14001 accreditation and printed in the UK by a FSC accredited supplier in accordance with the ISO 14001 environmental management system.


Contents Vittorio Colao, CEO Vodafone Group

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About Future Agenda

7

Authenticity

Diane Coyle OBE

8

Choice

Professor José Luis Nueno

14

Cities

Professor Richard Burdett

20

Connectivity

Jan Färjh

26

Currency

Dr. Rajiv Kumar

32

Data

D J Collins

38

Energy

Leo Roodhart

42

Food

Jim Kirkwood

48

Health

Jack Lord

54

Identity

Professor Mike Hardy OBE

60

Migration

Professor Richard Black

66

Money

Dave Birch

72

Transport

Mark Philips

78

Waste

Professor Ian Williams

84

Water

Professor Stewart Burn

90

Work

Chris Meyer

96

Biographies

103

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We have all heard enough to know we live in a world that is facing some significant, potentially life-threatening challenges and yet, as a society, we lack clear direction and seem ill-prepared to do anything. What is evident is that individual, corporate and even national action is not enough. Issues such as climate change, population increase and the development of socio-economic infrastructures all require a co-coordinated, urgent and focused approach. The Future Agenda provides a forum for discussion on how to address the challenges we face and gives you the opportunity to share ideas, visions and solutions and ultimately seed change by contributing to the debate via the website www.futureagenda.org This booklet is the beginning of that discussion with experts from academia and industry establishing initial points of view on a range of issues. The opinions expressed in this document are not ours but those of independent experts whose views we respect even if we don’t always agree with them. I thank them for their wholehearted support. They have important things to say that should be of interest to anyone concerned with creating a sustainable future for us all. Mobile technology can offer many socio-economic benefits but I believe that the most important contribution that the industry can offer is the power to allow people to communicate. Never has a conversation been more important. Vittorio Colao, CEO Vodafone Group

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About Future Agenda Supported by Vodafone Group, the Future Agenda is a unique cross-discipline programme which aims to bring together thoughtful people from around the world to address the greatest challenges of the next decade. In doing so, it is mapping out the major issues, identifying and debating potential solutions and suggesting possible ways forward. We hope, as a consequence, that it will provide a platform for collective innovation at a higher level than has been previously been achieved. As the world responds to accelerating challenges, organisations are seeking to gain clearer and more informed views of the future so that they can place intelligent bets in terms of business strategy and innovation focus. In order to understand emerging opportunities, we believe organisations should look, beyond their traditional horizons, and use new combinations of insight and foresight methodologies. The Future Agenda programme has already gained the support of a range of corporate, government and third sector organisations keen to share perspectives, challenge each others views and identify ways forward across the topics being addressed. As all participants are free to use the material as a source for ongoing research and innovation, we invite you to add your views into the mix to build and share a unique view of the future we need to collectively address.

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Diane Coyle OBE Founder, Enlightenment Economics and Member, BBC Trust

Future of Authenticity

8


The Global Challenge Authenticity has great salience in our times because new information and communication technologies have greatly expanded the scale and scope of the inauthentic. For example, they have made identity fraud possible and also playful; many of us now have multiple personalities online. When it is easy to choose an identity, what does that imply for the underlying reality? How do I know who I am, and how do you know who I am, and how does my bank know who I am? It is now so easy to make imitations that the value of

communication in the past 20-30 years, copying and

the authentic has been enhanced. This phenomenon

sharing information has become easier and cheaper

was pointed out by the critic Walter Benjamin long ago

than anybody of an earlier generation could have

(in The Work of Art in the Age of Mechanical

imagined - especially when so many goods and services

Reproduction).

Furthermore, given the historically

are digitally delivered. Managing this explosion in

unprecedented declines in the cost of computing and

imitation is one of the real challenges of the digital age.

The technologies which seem to protect the bad guys - the identity thieves or spammers also seem able to lead repressive authorities to clamp down on the good guys. This is a genuinely difficult dilemma.

Options and Possibilities People can be authentic or not. Online identities can reflect the multiple ways we think about ourselves: A work and a home email; Several different sign-ups for accounts; a Twitter account; perhaps Facebook profiles, or a character in World of Warcraft. These are the benign possibilities. There are malign ones too. Thieves will seek our log-ins and passwords to bank accounts. Malicious spirits will hide behind fake identities to spread rumours, attack other people, incite violence even. What are we to think about the cloak of anonymity online? It seems to encourage intemperate comments, rudeness and viciousness in online forums. On the other hand, it is essential to protect whistleblowers, or those who post information in a country affected by violence or a repressive regime. The technologies which seem to protect the bad guys - the identity thieves or spammers - also seem able to lead repressive authorities to clamp down on the good guys. This is a genuinely difficult dilemma. Things can be authentic or not. Fakes are proliferating in the online world. Fake

What’s more, the majority of reasonable people don’t

drugs are sold over the internet, to the great harm of

seem to believe there’s much wrong with intangible piracy

the customers. ‘Fake’ music, films, software are

- it’s a different matter in the tangible world of medicines

sold too, to the benefit of customers but not of

or aircraft parts. What is the authentic reality that the full

copyright owners. Piracy in this metaphorical sense

force of the law and the state should be protecting? After

is absolutely rampant.

all, an online copy of a song is no different from the original.

Future of Authenticity

9


What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org

The internet and modern communications, amplify the questions of veracity and reliability which have always affected the mass media. Urban myths move with the speed of light down fibre optic cables.

Information can be authentic or not.

Finally, experience can be authentic or not.

This has always been a fundamental issue in how we

Authenticity has an existential value. In rich countries,

navigate the world but is overwhelmingly important now

where most people have lots of stuff, experience is

that so many people have access to so much

more valuable. Activities that take time - ballooning,

information. The internet, modern communications,

cooking lessons, a holiday, book club meetings - are

amplify the questions of veracity and reliability which

considered good presents, treats. Representations of

have always affected the mass media. Urban myths

experience have value too. Street style sells - as does

move with the speed of light down fibre optic cables.

home made jam or hand-made crafts. But of course

Rumours and incitements to violence are spread, as

being packaged and sold makes the authentic instantly

always, person to person - but each person can now

inauthentic.

reach many others, very quickly. A flash mob can be assembled either to dance in the streets of London or beat up and stab neighbours in Kenya.

These reflections contain an enormous range of challenges and trade-offs.

The skill of verification has become fundamental. Can you identify spam email? Can you recognise bias in your source of news? Is Wikipedia a good source for homework?

The Way Forward A number of steps will have to taken so that we can establish some form of order in the digital world. These are 1) The establishment of credible, digital identities. This is essential for trust - and hence any economic and commercial activity - online. But conversely it is equally important to protect privacy - and anonymity too where it’s needed. 2) The protection of intellectual property in the online world while continuing to protect civic space, an intellectual commons - what James Boyle has entitled The Public Domain in his recent book of this title. 3) The continued provision of widespread access to communications and information. This brings enormous benefits especially to people largely excluded from the privileged information access of the past (libraries, print media). At the same time we must build in verification mechanisms, ensuring the reliability of widely-accessed online information.

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Future of Authenticity


The issues raised in all these different contexts are

the more so when it can be spread rapidly via the

varied, and difficult. For some of them, it is quite likely

internet, email and mobile and potentially change

that there will be many technology-based solutions

people’s behaviour. While SMS messages have been

forthcoming in the near future.

used to positive effect to spread correct information and

There are key areas where technology is already playing a major role in authenticity: Digital Right Management (DRM) uses technology to limit access to certain content - technology having created the potential for access in the first place. Equally biometric identity uses technology to limit the potential to form multiple identities. If my avatar can always be traced back to the me of my DNA, is there any point in having it?

encourage positive action - as in elections from the Phillipines to Zimbabwe - there were concerns that messages containing misinformation and lies were being used to encourage and incite the violence after Kenya’s December 2008 election. The most effective way to counteract falsehoods in future will probably come from the pooling of many messages and reports so the people can see where there is a consistent story. The aggregation of different sources - which can be

I predict technological ‘solutions’ will be commonplace

done using new social media applications such as

in the next few years. Sellers of content, government

Ushahidi - could be a powerful tool for verification.

agencies, airlines, and others will put up hurdles designed to identify individuals. The world of ‘Minority Report’ will lurch closer. But taken too far, this is a dystopia. The technologies ought to open up the world of information and creativity. If the full potential of the information and communication technologies for the majority of people is to be recognized, technology can not be used to build mechanisms which protect existing interests or structures and prevent change. ICTs are disruptive technologies. Printing was ultimately absolutely revolutionary - it’s why we all (in the rich west and many other countries too) have an education and the vote. The internet is revolutionary too. This is uncomfortable for those who were previously comfortable. So although technology can certainly in the short or medium term clamp down on its own effects, it is at the expense of restricting some of the positive potential. In the longer term we need to look for better solutions. The most promising will depend on greater transparency of information and reputation. Here are some examples.

The most effective way to counteract falsehoods in future will probably come from the pooling of many messages and reports so the people can see where there is a consistent story.

For reasons of food safety as well as personal preferences - for organic food, or fair trade food perhaps - traceability has become an important issue. The prototype Fair Tracing Project uses online maps to follow products on their journeys from farmers to consumers. Tracing will involve ‘tagging‘ individual products with information readily accessible by both producer and consumer. The information that may be attached to tagged products is virtually limitless, beginning with details of the product’s date and cost of creation, as well as its individual creator and his/her working environment and pay, through the various steps of its transport to the eventual point-of-sale to the consumer.” (http://web4.cs.ucl.ac.uk/students/v.shah/fairTracing/) Another example is Sourcemap, a new tool which permits the researching and optimization of supply chains, using transparency to deliver sustainability. (http://ow.ly/rgRs) Finally, online security and encryption are ways of protecting personal information and safeguarding personal identity. That identity is created offline. The

Misinformation is dangerous in any context, including

likely next step in establishing identity is likely to be

misinformation spread via conventional media. It’s all

biometric technology which will link the physical person

Future of Authenticity

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What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org

The fact isthat virtual identity and "physical" identity are not the same thing, and they differ in ways that we are only beginning to take on board

to the digital environment - a thumbprint pad on the

The fact is that virtual identity and "physical" identity

computer screen, perhaps. But a person’s online,

are not the same thing, and they differ in ways that

connected identity could potentially be impossible to

we

copy when it consists, as it eventually may, of all the

(http://digitaldebateblogs.typepad.com/digital_identity

accumulated patterns of their digital activities. Each

/2009/09/what-identity-is-important.html)

individual’s activities and conversations and searches is as unique as a fingerprint. Dave Birch, who runs the Digital Identity Forum, says in a recent blog post: “the "common sense" notion of identity, rooted in our preindustrial social structures and pre-human cortex, is not only not very good at dealing with the properties and implications of identity in an online world, but positively misleading when applied to system and service design.

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Future of Authenticity

are

only

beginning

to

take

on

board.”

Technological solutions are likely to need changes to social and legal institutions as well. Thus it is feasible to imagine identifying a person through the pattern of their communications and online activities, but this ability will be irrelevant unless government authorities in particular will accept alternatives to the present paper-based proof of legal identity.


Impact and Implications The journey is unlikely to be easy. A comparison between the valuation of any company and its physical assets shows that the vast majority of value in the economy is intangible and based on an understanding of what it is - whether or not it is authentic. Intangible value can evaporate overnight - and we’ve seen many examples of that, for instance in banking recently, in the case of Enron before that. This makes reputation everything, and the only way to sustain a reputation is to live it constantly. Reputation is fragile - taking time to build but able

The triangulation of information from different sources

to vanish overnight - it and will be more robust the

will become an essential skill, an aspect of ‘media

more it is the product of personal experience and

literacy’ without which consumers and citizens will be

recommendations. Personalization will, paradoxically,

unable to navigate daily life.

become

increasingly

important

even

as

new

technologies stretch the range and geographical spread of connections between people.

Trusted guides will come to play an increasingly important role. These could be social networks, media organizations, certain connected and well-informed

However, there will be an ‘arms race’ between efforts

individuals, or companies or other organizations. For

to market products or create or shape a reputation and

these guides, too, reputation will be all-important and

resistance to any message which is not wholly

will require constant vigilance.

authentic. This is a pattern familiar from the world of fashion: the cool people move on from a certain style as soon as many others take it up because it’s cool. We can already see this expansion of the dynamics of fashion in the evolution of social networks as means of word-of-mouth recommendation. Trends such as Facebook or Twitter are subsequently taken up by companies and other organizations as a means of

There will be an ‘arms race’ between efforts to market products or create or shape a reputation and resistance to any message which is not wholly authentic.

A long, collective conversation about authenticity, in at least some of its aspects, is needed. Personal identity, verification of information, piracy - there are huge challenges in this list. They will be best addressed by creative thought about the potential of the technologies which are amplifying the challenges of authenticity to provide solutions too.

conveying messages, but this ‘official’ and inauthentic use of a social medium in turn leads to resistance amongst users of networks who move on to another online location.

Future of Authenticity

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Professor JosĂŠ Luis Nueno IESE, Barcelona

Future of Choice

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The Global Challenge The world has changed: Product supply and demand is globalized and there is no putting the genie back in the bottle. The flow of goods from Asia to the west has created an economic dependency over the past ten years that will be exploited over the next ten. As China and India and other fast-developing economies become the primary global marketplaces, the needs and wishes of the 4bn new consumers will dominate those of the

Consumers are making a trade-off in a smart way and cost is winning.

800m old ones in the US and Europe. The days where the US set the pace in the consumer mindset are over and this is not going to change. In addition, choice is being threatened from the

Why should we continue to build brands when China

expropriation of freedom of choice launched from

and India can buy them ready-made off the shelf? Just

regulators, media, and the general public. Tobacco,

as Lenovo bought IBM and Tata bought Jaguar Land

candy, alcoholic beverages, speed, late hours,

Rover, with the financial reserves now available, why

advertising, food‌ all are being subject to regulation

should any established brand not be for sale? The

that limits choice and how we get to know about it.

Chinese production model is all about the right products

The way forward is for all to get used to the new world and operate by the new rules. While a few of the usual suspects may put up national or regional protectionist barriers, the realities of global trade are all too clear and we can see the end of variety. In fact we can see a changing

balance

between

variety

and

cost.

Consumers are making a trade-off in a smart way and cost is winning. We therefore face the challenge of how

- good quality at a low price and the brand is a secondary issue. Yes, there is the luxury sector - the Gucci, Prada, Louis Vuitton segment of the fashion industry and its like in electronics and automobiles, but that is, by its very nature, niche - and increasingly Asian in production. Moreover, culturally intensive products, a traditional refuge of variety, are under threat by consumer unwillingness to pay.

to deal with a reduction in the number of options in the

In the next ten years I see the rise of Asian retailing

categories of consumption but an expansion in the

driven initially by the sheer size of the associated

number of categories.

domestic markets and then a move into the

Hypermarkets and department stores will all struggle in the next decade: They may reduce their product mix down from 26000 SKUs (stock keeping units) to 16000, but continuing to provide consumers with such choice is unsustainable when discount stores only have to provide 1000 SKUs - an increase in the assortment from the 800 they offer today. Commoditization is the way forward for the mainstream majority and in many sectors this will

international arena. The Aldi model will win over the Wal-Mart one, but what about a Chinese Aldi selling products made by a Chinese P&G? Who could compete against that combination? I believe that this will occur without any significant backlash. Consumers will follow the mainstream and quickly get used to less choice given the benefit of lower cost. This will apply across the board.

mean a race to the bottom in terms of margins.

The only categories where I see an alternative future

Department stores need a continuous stream of new

are those that are affected by time; perishable products

ideas and innovation to keep their mix fresh and so attract

(food), live content (broadcast) and extreme time to

high-end consumers, but in a world of less variety where

market goods (those that respond to latent consumer

high quality, low cost Asian products dominate, why will

needs) will be relatively immune. Indeed, if the quality

the majority seek out the niche brands?

of the staple products is to improve and local production

Future of Choice

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What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org

We can foresee a world in which Zara and H&M are more successful than Gap and Neiman Marcus and the Aldi model wins over the Wal-Mart one.

increases to ensure security of supply, we can see

destinations, or hundreds of lifestyle drugs. We will see

rising costs on the horizon - but still with less variety of

more of these and, in addition, many disruptive and

choice. In 2020 how many of us in Europe will eat

complex new products, services or solutions will grab

strawberries in December?

the attention of an already over-solicited and less

Choice will also be limited by our ability to process information. Ten years ago we did not have MP3s, PVRs, thousands of interesting websites, travel

affluent consumer. As the number of categories expands, choice will have to be shared among, rather than within, categories of consumption.

Options and Possibilities With the certainty that variety will lose out to speed and cost, we can foresee a world in which Zara and H&M are more successful than Gap and Neiman Marcus and, as mentioned earlier, the Aldi model wins over WalMart one. Hypermarkets and department stores will lose out to discount stores and the speed merchants. This is clear. The shape of retailing has changed and the consequences over the next decade will be driven by a clear-out of the also-rans. One likely development is in the food sector which is

increasing health costs and long-term disease risks, I

fast-becoming the tobacco of the 21st Century. We are

see that regulators will act. The industry will have to sort

progressing towards a model where no single

itself out and we will see more transparency on

organization can have as much influence as they have

ingredients. More variety in food is nonsense. We will

had in the past and we will become accustomed to a

see a shift to less. Less choice maybe better and

restriction in our freedom of choice. As suggested

hence, by 2020, again I see less choice within

previously, the obesity epidemic has not been

categories but more choice between categories. This

adequately moderated by the food industry and so

will benefit the leading companies (a winner takes all

governments will increasingly intervene to limit choice.

proposition) as well as the most flexible, pragmatic, and

Healthier foods will cease to be an option but instead

adaptive followers.

will become the norm. Portion size will be reduced and low fat and low salt will be the new default standards. Although some companies, such as Mars and CocaCola, have been proactive in cutting back on advertising and taking away vending machines from within schools, and PepsiCo especially has shifted towards lower fat

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The other certainty I see is a reduction in the number of players within each category. The top mega-brands will survive as will some of the most efficient non-brands. But there will be a clear out of the middle market - the me-too brands will become ex-brands and will disappear.

products, the majority of the food sector has not made

Some may see that there is uncertainty in how

a sufficient move over the past decade. So, faced with

consumers will react to less variety. I see that, if they

Future of Choice


are not given so much choice, the mainstream majority

who will be interested in the hundreds of non-electric

will follow where they are led. Take, for example, what

alternatives? Regulation, public opinion and financial

will happen when the first Renault, Citroen and VW

incentives will all accelerate the migration of the

electric cars are launched into the European market in

consumer vehicle fleet to electric and we will not care

2012. When consumers are given an option to buy one

about the reduction in choice.

of, say ten efficient, zero emission, zero-tax vehicles,

Europe with around 200m active consumers will become a secondary influence to Asia with 4bn.

The Way Forward Given the impact of the global downturn, in the retail arena I don’t think that we will be returning to a business as usual world. Consumer attitudes have changed to shift many of us away from wanting increased variety. In addition, the framework within which we consume has changed: Governments, the big brands, the acceleration of China and retail efficiency are all creating a new landscape within which our choice will become more limited: Less will be less not more. Variety is increasing across categories not within them. Over the next ten years we will see a reduction in the

supermarkets like Aldi demonstrates, variety will be

number of players per category. As variety is reduced

substituted by budget. I see that, in the forthcoming

and commoditization increases, only the #1 and #2

decade, many retailers will struggle to compete and fall

brands will survive. So what about #3, #4 and #5? The

down in between the leaders in providing low cost

playing field for the future will be increasingly

commodites and trend setting. As the continued growth

determined by whoever sets the standards. And the

of fast-fashion chains such as Zara and H&M reveals,

standards will be set by the category leaders and the

providing a limited but fast-changing product range is

biggest marketplaces - the US, China and India - it is

more profitable that holding a broad portfolio to cover

a numbers game. Europe with around 200m active

the full range of potential consumer choice. We have

consumers will become a secondary influence to Asia

now entered a world in which the distinction between

with 4bn. Therefore, as products and services are

prediction and following of trends has become blurred.

configured to meet the global consumer, who will be

Given the speed with which Zara changes its product

increasingly Asian, the variety of choice will become

mix, we are no longer certain whether media leads

less influential than scale and speed of delivery.

fashion or vice-versa. But who leads who is irrelevant

Back in the 1950s William Starbuck developed one of the few ideas in retailing to have lasted: Every retail model is substituted by a more efficient one. This has been the case for the last 50 years and I see no reason for change in the future. As the success of discount

when we, as consumers, don’t have to choose. The decisions about what we can buy are made for us and so variety again reduces. The most important capability for any manufacturer seeking a decent margin will be the ability to produce faster than the diffusion of a trend. Scale will dominate over choice.

Future of Choice

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What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org

It may seem counterintuitive but fewer choices provide higher levels of satisfaction

In addition, we are facing greater intervention of an

reduction in variety in the consumption of products

increasing number of influential bodies and groups

and services. As they have in the past impacted

into the world of retailing which will all align to reduce

alcohol and tobacco, so in the next decade they will

our freedom of choice. The media, public opinion and

impact other areas of consumption from food and

government regulation are moving us towards a

fashion to transport.

Impacts and Implications As variety reduces some may question whether consumers will miss the old days. I don’t believe so. Some of our recent research at IESE has explored choice from a number of dimensions. It may seem counterintuitive but fewer choices provide higher levels of satisfaction: People like to have lots of variety, but when faced with too many choices, we tend to vacillate and delay decisions. We may want 31 options instead of six, but we find it easier to choose one of six than one of 31. In a series of experiments with men and women from a range of different cultures we found that the greatest level of satisfaction, both with the final choice and the decision-making process, was reached when people chose from an intermediate number of alternatives as opposed to large or small choice sets. These findings have practical implications for people offering many choices to customers, consumer and employees today. Going forward, I see that this supports my notion that we will see little consumer backlash against a reduction of variety. Moving to the wider impacts of how I see the future of

path or finding their own way forward which creates and

choice, it is clear that, although some may see my view

sustains a unique position in the marketplace. Yes, my

as being a little negative from a Western perspective, it

views on choice and the mainstream may sound alarm

does highlight the dynamics at play across the retail

bells for many in the middle market today, but they

environment of the next ten years. As we are cognizant

should also provide a stimulus for others to think

of a world in which less variety is the predominant shift

differently about the new competitive landscape.

for most, if not all, categories, then, as manufacturers and retailers, we can prepare ourselves for a new paradigm.

With

good

quality,

low-cost,

mass

commoditization the norm for the mainstream, we either need to compete on these terms or else migrate to the margins. I have highlighted the successful approaches taken by Spanish Zara and Swedish H&M in the fashion industry where they have both developed fast-fashion as a core capability. There is nothing to stop other companies in other categories from following the same

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Future of Choice

The future of choice is about less variety, but this does not mean less interest. The products that will succeed in the future will be the ones that offer global customers what they want, even if it is before they have recognized what that is. The successful retailers of the future will provide consumers with a smaller portfolio of products than their predecessors did in the past, but the portfolio will be higher selling products. Less variety means fewer SKUs but fewer SKUs mean more efficient retailing.


The future of choice is about less variety, but this does not mean less interest.

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Professor Richard Burdett Centennial Professor in Architecture and Urbanism, London School of Economics

Future of Cities

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The Global Challenge The big issues facing cities are clear: Think globalisation, immigration, jobs, social exclusion and sustainability: Given that global urbanisation is taking place at an unprecedented speed with a scale, diversity, complexity and level of connectivity that challenges all existing perceptions, questions regarding the size, speed of growth, shape and land use of cities have become increasingly complex and politicised. Although cities themselves have a remarkable ability to innovate, there are broad disconnects between urban change and urban policy. The priority, therefore, must be to identify ways in which policy makers can create a regulatory environment that provides a framework for sustainable forms of urban development. Urban growth is being fuelled by new levels of mobility

Even the most advanced firms need cleaners, lorry

and migration of diverse populations within and across

drivers, and secretaries. How must cities adapt to fit

nations especially in China, Brazil and India. These

the needs of all? Also how do we adapt to the possibility

rural-to-urban migrants are pulled by the tantalizing

that we are seeing an internationalised labour market

prospects of jobs and opportunity, driven by the harsh

for low wage manual and service workers? How do we

realities of rural life. Cities like Mumbai experience 42

adapt housing design and create neighbourhoods that

people moving into the city per hour. Where do you

will benefit local communities and encourage urban

house them and what infrastructure do you provide for

integration?

them? Transport, electricity, sewers and water systems - these are technical issues that need to be addressed in a way that is environmentally smart.

Technological innovation has shrunk the world reducing the cost of transmitting to virtually nothing. Internet users in developing countries could constitute more

Migration and in-migration has also created an urban

than half the world total within 5 years if trends persist.

underclass which is often allocated to specific areas of

The reality of urban connectivity taken to its logical

the city. Paris is a perfect example. The physical

conclusion will create a network of interlinked cities

infrastructure, with the beauty and qualities that we all

connected, and soon to be even more connected, by

admire, has frozen. This means that all its growth (with

modern rails and technology. Consider also the effects

increasing immigration from 1945 and onward) has

of mobility and transport systems on social cohesion

created ghettoization. This kind of imbalance in social

and economic viability.

mobility must be addressed.

Although cities themselves have a remarkable ability to innovate, there are broad disconnects between urban change and urban policy.

Lastly, any future urban model must of course be

The changing nature of work will also impact on the

sustainable. If we are to make up for past failures,

physical form of cities. The global economy was born

cities will have to produce more energy than they need,

out of the power of trans-national corporations and

become net carbon absorbers, collect and process

global communications technologies. How does it affect

waste within city limits and collect and clean recycled

the way we live? If we focus on the fact that power

water. All this should happen in parallel to the creation

and communications capacities need to be produced,

of wealth and the promotion of social wellbeing and

implemented and managed, it becomes clear that cities

individual health.

still have an important role to play but their layout and functionality may be different.

Future of Cities

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What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org

Options and Possibilities Can planners adapt with sufficient speed to create policies which address the challenges we face? There seems to be a disconnect between the complexity of challenges of the urban age and our current set of solutions.

Can planners adapt with sufficient speed to create policies which address the challenges we face? There seems to be a disconnect between the complexity of challenges of the urban age and our current set of urban solutions. Planners and urban governance must consider re-evaluating how they address the problems they face and consider multi-dimensional, integrated interventions rather than specific policies covering specialised issues (education, health, housing etc). If, for example, housing is going to be a platform for opportunity, then housing policies must connect with education, transportation and childcare; if transportation is going to promote mobility and advance sustainability, then transportation policies need to expand choice and embrace dense, transit rich corridors of mixed residential, retail and employment use. Ultimately, to be successful, we also need to share innovations across networks of urban researchers, practitioners and policy makers across the developed and developing world. We should also consider how we manage the dramatic

Can cities address the environmental crisis of global

upturn in immigration and address the fight against

warming and climate change? Rapid urbanisation has

poverty. One billion people live in disease spreading

no doubt exacerbated environmental pressures but

slums characterized by inadequate housing, unsafe

cities offer the best promise of developing in ways that

drinking water and open sewer systems. This makes

are environmentally sound and energy efficient - a pre-

the builders of informal housing the largest housing

requisite of global prosperity. The need is to develop

developers in the world and it is they who are

carbon reduction policies - such as London’s

creating the cities of tomorrow. We can plan for this

congestion charge, for example, at the same time as

“unplanned” inevitability. There are already noticeable

improving infrastructure. This is why the planners in

success stories; take for example Ciuadad Neza in

London are focusing on improving the transport

Mexico City where, as hundreds of thousand

infrastructure and have committed to reduce C02

immigrants arrive each year, an open-ended and

emissions by 60% by 2050 focussing on existing

networked community is succeeding in establishing a

housing stock which accounts for nearly 40% of

lively economy out of literally nothing. Yet cities offer

today’s emissions.

the promise of ultimately connecting hundreds of millions of workers to the expanding job opportunities offered by the global economy.

22

Future of Cities


Proposed Way Forward You can become very depressed about cities of the future when you look at all the challenges facing us. But, the more I go and visit cities and through the work we do at The London School of Economics, the more I think that there are solutions. They depend on people rather than policies - it could be a mayor making a decision or a community activist. New Delhi, for instance, holds 13-14 million people

series of young men and women who have worked

depending on the time of day. It used to have the

together to create a communal bathroom (toilet).

highest pollution rates in the world but then overnight all

Where people don’t have water and don’t have toilets,

the auto-rickshaws and the buses were made to change

this place is important because it’s where people meet.

from diesel to natural gas. If you can use natural gas in

They have created a moment of pause in the city. This

New Delhi, then why can’t you use it everywhere?

is one of many projects that I saw in Mumbai, New

In London we use congestion charge, which is very effective in re-prioritizing the traffic. There are clear

Delhi and elsewhere which are fantastically powerful and are done by individuals.

environmental benefits but a radical social difference is

Cities are often at the forefront of the delivery of cultural

a 100% increase in bus use by the middle class. If you

richness In Mexico city, for example, there is a fantastic

get the middle class onto public transport you are

initiative which is called the ‘Fallon’, The Lighthouse,

winning, and that’s a great example.

signifying hope; a stunning project designed by an

Tokyo is the largest city in the world. Its transport system, integrated by overhead and underground rail systems, means that the average commute is around one hour. Compare that to Los Angeles where the average commute is about two hours and at least 80% of the population takes the car to work. In Tokyo, 80% of the population use public transport. There is little doubt that, seen through the lens of efficiency, more densely populated, compact cities such as Hong Kong and Manhattan are inherently more sustainable places to live than the likes of Houston and Mexico City.

There is little doubt that, seen through the lens of efficiency, more densely populated, compact cities such as Hong Kong and Manhattan are inherently more sustainable places to live than the likes of Houston and Mexico City.

architect called Callas. Next to it is an area of approximately a million people living under the poorest conditions, a lot of them using the nearby rubbish tip as a way of living, recycling whatever is there, living at the bottom. The Lighthouse is a cultural centre where kids learn how to paint and do art. Mexico City is a city of enormous violence; people don’t feel safe going out and whenever there is a crowd of people together the police try to break it up. So an outdoor music area is a no-go area. Outside the Lighthouse they have built a simple amphitheatre out of earth where they hold music concerts in the summer. This does more to lift the

However, across the scale empowerment becomes

spirits of the community than any policy I ever saw the

significant; you need to have a system which allows

mayor or the politicians do. At the centre of this is the

people on the ground to solve the problems where they

physical environment. By designing spaces you can

need to be solved. I go through the tiny streets of a

make an enormous change.

small slum area of the outskirts of Mumbai and I see a

Future of Cities

23


What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org

Impacts and Implications Cities are notjust a concentration of problems but they are also places where problems can be solved.

Perhaps more than ever before, the shape of cities, how much land they occupy, how much energy they consume, how their transport infrastructure is organised and where people are housed - in remote segregated environments behind walls or in integrated neighbourhoods close to jobs, facilities and transport - all affect the environmental, economic and social sustainability of global society. Cities are not just a concentration of problems - but they are also places where problems can be solved. Cities of the future have to be organic, flexible and

Creating more compact urban environments generally

versatile. As society and aspirations alter over time, the

will result in more efficient infrastructures: One direct

city has to adapt to change. Utopian cities have never

consequence of variation in population density is the

worked. The people that created Rome, New York and

associated energy demands: Tighter, more compact

London certainly didn’t think of them as fixed artifacts

cities have far lower energy use per capita than more

that wouldn’t change over time. We have to be clever

spread out ones: So, as energy costs continue to

enough as urban designers to design the city like a

escalate and energy security becomes even more of an

metabolism, like a body. When it gets older and weaker,

issue over the next decade, this inherent design

you do corrective surgery. Cities need to be versatile;

relationship will come more to the fore.

otherwise they fossilize and die. For example, many cities of the last 50 years have been designed around the needs of the car. But as oil costs soar and the city of the future will increasingly need adapt to modes of transportation that are not petrol-dependent. This will have a significant impact on the shape of the city.

environment. We mustn’t forget that cities are about people coming together. Ultimately a city may be very efficient in terms of CO2 emission but if the places where we come together are not beautiful (a word which is rarely used in this debate) and if the places

In order to be versatile and responsive to change the

don’t have a wonderful relationship to urban nature - a

sustainable city will also have to be compact. A city like

river, water or views that compensate for this human

Mexico City, which goes on for 100 kilometers in one

closeness, this is not a city that people will want to live

direction and 150 kilometers in another, has hardly any

in. The qualities I am looking for in a city that is

chance of actually becoming sustainable. On the other

sustainable, that embraces the notion of versatility, that

hand a city like New York or Copenhagen and a city like

is compact, that offers bounds of beauty in its buildings

London which has highs and lows of density, has the

and the quality of its open spaces.

potential to become sustainable within the next 30 years.

24

The quality of a city does not only concern the

Future of Cities


The qualities I am looking for in a city that is sustainable, that embraces the notion of versatility, that is compact, that offers bounds of beauty in its buildings and the quality of its open spaces.

25


Jan F채rjh Vice President and Head of Ericsson Research

Future of Connectivity

26


The Global Challenge The internet has finally gone mobile. Today over 300m of us access the web using mobile technology. In 2010 the number of subscribers reaches 1bn, surpassing the number of fixed internet users. In a couple of years the number of mobile broadband connections will be in the order of 4 to 5bn - with the majority of new consumers coming from China and India. By 2020 there may well be as many as 50bn devices connected to each other. These devices will work across different networks which, in turn, will be connected to each other. This global, pervasive connectivity will facilitate new types of services and opportunities for people, industry, and society but it won’t be an easy journey. Delivering this vision is a major commercial and technical challenge for the ICT sector, but on the other hand very exciting. Technology in itself will not be a restricting factor.

the potential to bring extraordinary benefits, for some it

Transport, access, storage, and processing will all thrive

will be a real challenge to adapt to this. Information on

on the continued effects of Moore’s law and

almost everything is now widely available making

miniaturization will continue where beneficial. High

industries and markets much more transparent and

performing systems are of course an absolute necessity

efficient. However, the way consumers share information

but the implementation challenge is not straightforward.

and communicate with each other, utilizing a variety of

We need to consider how to deal with the phenomenal

online social networking tools, IPTV, images and video,

increase in capacity both in terms of number of devices

means that how we give and receive information is

to be handled but also in terms of the amount of

becoming increasingly personalised. This, in turn, means

information that will be exchanged between these

that individuals, more than ever before, have to manage

devices. Power consumption will also still be an issue

their own public identity. This indicates that concerns

because of battery lifetime and sustainability concerns.

around cyber crime and data protection will continue to

So, how can we develop a system that is cost -

rise. As a result, security and consumer protection

effective, adaptable, easily deployed and, most

related issues will become increasingly important.

importantly, simple to use? How can we develop networks that are self-deployed, self-operated and selfmaintained? These questions cannot be answered by technology alone; in order to achieve success we need collaboration between network providers, device manufacturers and, of course, policy makers both nationally and internationally.

In a couple of years the number of mobile broadband connections will be in the order of 4 to 5bn - with the majority of new consumers coming from China and India.

Business will also have to adapt to a changing environment as their services are increasingly delivered online. In a world of endless choice and seemingly complete transparency some will be hard put to differentiate themselves. Of course, communications technology is not in itself a limiting factor for the diffusion of new products and services - in fact

What will this mean for consumers? Essentially

evidence suggests quite the opposite - those who are

ubiquitous connectivity will continue to change the basic

successful will have made the most of the opportunity.

structure and conditions of our lives and, although it has

This is why brand identity will continue to dominate.

Future of Connectivity

27


What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org

Options and Possibilities Machine to machine and process to process communications as well as tools leveraging data mining will all flourish as sustainability efficiency measures will be taken across the board and in all enterprises.

By 2020 the majority of the world’s population will have access to basic telecommunications services. However, even though the current development pace is high, with more connected devices and availability of internet access “everywhere”, it is still uncertain how fast this will really impact and change conditions for other value chains, industries and daily lives. This depends on many factors including the rate at which networks can be rolled out and the connection speeds that will be possible. Where there is connectivity, smart phones and devices will enable people to leapfrog a generation of technology, especially for those who never had a land line phone. Mobile voice increase in developing economies may slow down but these markets will add local innovation and stay in the forefront with overall growth consistently higher than in mature markets. It is also likely that Broadband access penetration will increase primarily by means of radio solutions in developing markets outside areas where fixed broadband is economically feasible. We face rising populations and increased dependency

represents 2 percent of global CO2 emissions, it has a

ratios which will be exacerbated by scarcities of

clear role to play in reducing the remaining 98 percent

resources and environmental requirements. In order to

from other sources. Therefore expect a boom in

maintain standards of living with substantial and

innovation of services to meet this emerging

continued global productivity improvements will

demand; e-government, e-health, e-education, e-work,

be needed. This will partly be enabled by the

telepresence, logistics and energy management

communication industry and, particularly when

services will all increase. Machine-to-machine and

combined with other vital industries such as

process-to-process communications as well as tools

transportation and healthcare, will play an important role

leveraging data mining will all flourish as sustainability

in addressing this need. For example, scarcity of labour

efficiency measures will be taken across the board and

can, to an extent, be mitigated if machine to machine

in all enterprises.

(M2M) communication is used to address labour intensive tasks; automation is specific vertical industries can be enabled by connected sensor networks. In addition, self-service solutions will also continue to grow far beyond today’s e-bank and e-retailer services applications into areas such as government and healthcare; and, the increased global use of mobile, video and internet will mean that people can benefit from the services they need more quickly at less cost.

28

In the corporate world, there will be a blurring of borders between large and small enterprises with large scale companies deploying true global operating models, increased inter-company collaboration and workers increasingly tele-working and being loosely connected to organizations. As creative knowledge workers become strategic assets for companies, IT budgets will increasingly be geared at making them effective. Increased

connectivity

will

enable

competitive

Sustainability is certainly high on the agenda for the

advantages and new business models to be sought

next decade and here ICT can make a large

from mining massive amounts of data. For instance

contribution. As the world measures more or less

real-time

everything by new sustainability standards, whether

experimentation, real-time management of goods in

quality of life, business success or government actions,

world-wide distribution and logistics chains and targeted

there is potential for connectivity to play a significant

advertising solutions will all require data systems that

role in areas such as carbon mitigation. A recent report

will be enabled by falling prices on data storage,

(SMART 2020) concluded that, although ICT merely

communications and processing.

Future of Connectivity

business

intelligence

and

statistical


User generated content will also probably continue to

telecom services revenue streams at the current price

grow strongly, increasing traffic and the abundance of

levels. That said, as media consumption continues to

available information, However, the impact on media

become more fragmented an interactive, the gap

value chains and the commercial value of that content

between the rapidly growing online share of media time,

is unclear. The online advertising market will grow, but

and the online share of the global advertising budget,

will not be of a magnitude sufficient to substitute

will close.

Technology in itself will not be a limiting factor and there will be the introduction of many more new products and services.

Proposed Way Forward Looking to 2020, we see that, while the technology platforms that will enable global ubiquitous connectivity are clear, the way in which businesses, society and individuals use these could vary significantly. Some examples of scenarios that might occur can be described as follows: We see an increased separation between the content

As with many scenarios, we see that the way forward

and services that people use and the means by which

will probably be a hybrid of these. An open application

it will be delivered. Companies with strong brands will

environment will enable new services and applications

shape the communications industry and their services

to combine adjacent scientific fields such as energy,

could be delivered over the top of independent network

food, water, transport, health and ICT - globally and

providers and will be tightly integrated with devices.

locally. Everything that could benefit from a wireless

Simplicity and convenience is the driving force and

network will have one. Industries will become

brand loyalty will win over variety.

increasingly mobilized and there will be an increasing

The sustainability agenda comes to the fore and changes the conditions for societies, companies and individuals worldwide. In order to reduce travel and energy consumption there will be an acceleration of new mobile internet services for health, government, work and machine-to-machine (M2M) operations.

share of services delivered online. Technology in itself will not be a limiting factor and there will be the introduction of many more new products and services. Usability and simplicity will be in high demand, fixed and mobile broadband will converge and 50 billion devices will be connected globally.

Increased regulation will come into place to secure affordable services and drive industry players to pool their resources to ensure that networks are capable, reliable and robust.

Future of Connectivity

29


What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org

Impacts and Implications It is possible to suggest that access to advanced communications will be come a “universal right”

Full global connectivity is already well underway. It has already changed the way we communicate with other people and groups. The amount of information we can share and the speed with which we can share it is increasing rapidly. Indeed, it is possible to suggest that access to advanced communications will be come a “universal right” and that a wide and deep penetration of networks and services is a prerequisite for the continued struggle against climate change and poverty. This suggests that universal services requirements will drive new investments in the industry, while measures to keep services affordable (e.g. price regulation) may reduce revenues and profits leading to increased pressure for lower cost and higher efficiency. In the next decade, addressing the major global

Most other areas will to some extent be affected by

challenges and a continued shift to wireless and online

global connectivity: Money, authenticity, transport, travel,

services will bring forward new societal vulnerabilities.

mHealth, privacy, identity, energy, cities, migration, food,

‘Cyber crime’ and malware may be increasingly

water, waste. For all these areas you can find a use for

common, and dependencies on the availability of

connectivity. Global connectivity can change, improve

information and communication systems will increase.

and be used to catalyze innovation in everything.

Restricted online anonymity and privacy will also raise integrity concerns. As a result, security and consumer protection related regulation will increase and industries will move to capture these new opportunities.

communication technology is properly integrated into adjacent scientific fields. This will open up new services in a wide range of complementary industries such as

IP will be the prevailing delivery vehicle for much of our

healthcare, automation, positioning and information

connectivity, and the vertical dependence between

management. It is clear that everything that can benefit

services and infrastructures may gradually disappear.

from a network connection will have one. Not only will

Users will access services and content independently of

more people be connected, but devices for various

the network provider to a larger extent. Business

types of automated services and functions (e.g. energy

models will vary, but lower entry barriers and innovation

meters, surveillance, climate sensors, e-health sensors,

globally will also increase the number of providers

and industry process automation) will exchange data

offering the same service - but at a reduced cost to

and change lives.

consumers of financed by alternative business models, such as increasing advertising revenues.

30

Real change, however, can only be made when

Future of Connectivity


It is clear that everything that can benefit from a network connection will have one.

31


Dr. Rajiv Kumar Chief Executive, ICRIER

Future of Currency

32


The Global Challenge I see that greatest challenge for the next decade to be a fundamental one - what should the world’s currencies be? Over the last century we have seen the rise of the US dollar as the primary unit of global currency which we use to measure and value much of our relative individual, organisational and national wealth and investments, and through which we exchange, trade and price commodities, businesses, goods and services. The status of the US dollar as the global reserve currency is however under enormous pressure and, with the rise of new currency blocs in the world, many have been asking whether the Euro will emerge as an alternative

The status of the US dollar as the global reserve currency is however under enormous pressure

reserve currency. The 2008-9 financial crisis put enough pressure on the US currency to such an extent that many now see that we need an alternative, but the question is what? Will the US remain as the pre-eminent financial power or will its influence secularly decline stimulated by the recent crisis and its inability to achieve a major technological breakthrough or exercise the necessary conditions for it to remain a reserve currency? And, if we go for an alternative, why would this be the Euro? By 2020, will we, for instance, therefore see the ACU

We also have the impact of replacing printed and

(Asian Currency Unit) develop from an Asian Monetary

minted money with electronic equivalents: The move to

Union to become the third global currency alongside

digital money will certainly raise a number of major

the Euro and the dollar? While Asia may not be ready

issues. Especially as the banking and mobile

for a common currency, the time is right to work

telecommunications sectors see their interests

towards a parallel currency. Furthermore, within this

converge in developing more widespread electronic

context, would the ACU be pegged to the Yuan or the

transactions which will minimise the use of cash, or

Yen? And will the Rupee be part of the basket that

even traditional credit as we know it, digital money will

determines the value of the ACU? These global

have increasing applicability. As banks adopt new

currency reserve questions are a primary challenge for

software and the Bank for International Settlements

the world’s economies for the next ten years.

develops guidelines for electronic money, its movement

While I see that this is the main issue, I believe that during the next decade we will also have to address two other significant issues along the way:

across national borders will become practical. However, what is the real pace of the related technologies and who either individually or collectively will emerge as the real driver for this convergence? Given the access gap

One of the most important of these is the continuation

that still exists for significant proportions of the

of money laundering that will increasingly impact the

population in many developing nations, will we need to

smaller economies as the larger ones take steps to

wait for true, near ubiquitous mobile connectivity and

minimize the impact on their own systems. Will such

24/7 energy supply before digital money can really

countries as Switzerland and The Bahamas, as well as

have global impact?

other financial havens, finally be brought into the financial mainstream and stop affording haven status to residents of other countries? Will the advanced economies come together and force the emerging

Both of these issues will have impact upon international remittances, inter-bank transfers and the many associated financial vehicles that are presently in place.

economies to join in the move against laundered and ill gotten wealth?

Future of Currency

33


What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org

Options and Possibilities De-leveraging is already happening as individuals and governments across Asia decrease their investments in the US dollar.

It is certain that for the next decade the US dollar will remain as one of the reserve currencies. As such it will still be a key currency for foreign exchange and a transaction currency for international trade and investments in 2020. The US dollar will continue to be integrated into, and influential upon, the world economy. Over the same period, it is possible, but not highly

sustainable in the long term and, as such, a leverage

probable, that the Euro will become a major reserve

based model cannot continue. The 2008 shock to the

currency. Although the European Monetary Union led to

global financial system could have significant influence:

the public introduction of the Euro in 2002, this was

De-leveraging is already happening as individuals and

twenty years after the first creation of the ECU as an

governments across Asia decrease their investments in

artificial basket currency used by participating countries

the US dollar.

as their internal accounting unit. It is unlikely that, another two decades later, the Euro will have become quite as significant a currency as the dollar, but it may not be far off. A world where the Euro has equal status to the dollar as a reserve currency is increasingly credible.

34

That said, over the next decade, it is unlikely that we will really see the emergence of the ACU as the third currency block. This is because Asians cannot decide on either a viable collation or leadership by one of the countries. As experts, including Jin-Chuan Duan at the National University of Singapore, have highlighted:

However, at the same time, it is certain that the Yuan

although much debated, Asian Monetary Union looks

is emerging as the central focus for economic and

unlikely in the short term. Just as with the formation of

financial activity in Asia with increasing number of

the ERM and the Euro, the realisation of the ACU as a

transactions occurring in that currency, though with

single regional currency would demand cross subsidy

limited convertibility. We have seen the rise of China to

via taxation between countries, the loss of autonomy in

become the world’s primary economic power. This is

the conduct of monetary policy and the partial surrender

accompanied by a similar rise of India and the

of some national sovereignty: Right now the Asian

associated rebalancing of wealth between the West

version of the Euro is theoretically possible but

and the East. Although the recent economic model has

practically far from certain. However, dual currency

largely been one where Asians produce goods that are

systems are common and I believe that, although Asian

bought by Americans using money that is lent back to

Monetary Union is improbable by 2020, a parallel

them by the Asians, this may not last much longer: As

currency ACU that allows for exchange rate

a number of commentators, including historian Niall

adjustments is practical. But the ACU must be based

Ferguson, have argued this ‘Chimerica’ balance is not

on a wider basket than just the ASEAN countries.

Future of Currency


Proposed Way Forward Over the next decade, we will move unmistakably towards a multi-polar world which will be characterized by a much broader consultative process that extends to a larger number of jurisdictions. Greater coordination amongst major economies on financial sector regulation will be needed, and this can be facilitated by the newly enlarged Financial Stability Board based in Basle. At its core, the coordination will have to be aimed at achieving greater trust in the transparent and universally applicable working of the financial system. This will especially need to dispel the fear that the global financial system has a bias in favour of any one country or group of countries or group of dominant institutions. As the G20 has superseded the G7, financial management of the global system must become more equable: Within this it is possible that a more prominent role is given to Special Drawing Rights - the international reserve assets managed by the IMF that currently amount to over $300 billion. It was used to boost global liquidity in 2009, but additional ongoing and arguably

The introduction of a broad-basket ACU (Asian Currency Unit) as the third global reserve currency will provide the world with the opportunity to more appropriately balance economic influence and trade.

more proactive applications should be made more practical. In a similar manner to how Shell’s current global scenarios

Many would correctly suggest that a true single world

outline the future for the energy sector, I see that the

currency is not practical: Differential interest rates and

challenge in the financial world is to also ensure that we

selective monetary policies make it impossible and

try our best to follow the ‘blueprint’ and not the

currency harmonization cannot readily be implemented

‘scramble’ approach: I suggest that we need to

while different countries are in different stages of

strengthen the global coordination mechanisms to

economic development. The IMF is not a super central

facilitate the monitoring of global financial flows and

bank and turning Special Drawing Rights into a world

enable the emergence of new technologies to help

currency is neither possible nor practical. However, the

balance the system. The major economies represented

introduction of a broad basket ACU as the third global

in the G20 need to agree to have some arrangement for

reserve currency will provide the world with the

a universally acceptable reserve currency, starting as a

opportunity to more appropriately balance economic

unit of account and then also phasing it in as a currency

influence and trade.

of exchange. I believe that we should adopt such a universally acceptable currency that does not face the risk of being debased as a result of the fiscal and financial indiscipline on the part of any one country. The ACU has the potential to be that currency. But to function as such it must include the Rupee: India is currently the largest economy of South Asia and plays a far more influential role across Asia as a whole than many of the ASEAN countries. The ACU has been seen as a precursor to a common future currency, just as the ECU was for the Euro. Therefore, it is important to focus on how the world will therefore look when this occurs - India is currently poised to be the third largest economy in the world over the next 30 years. Hence the inclusion of India in Asian economic monetary integration is prudent.

Future of Currency

35


What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org

Impacts and Implications If the ACU is positioned alongside the US dollar and the Euro as a third global reserve currency the broader implications will be far-reaching.

The successful acceptance of an ACU driven by a wide basket of national currencies will, in itself, have several significant impacts within Asia: If the ACU is positioned alongside the US dollar and the Euro as a third global reserve currency the broader implications will be far-reaching. When the European Monetary System first came into

To overcome the obstacles that currently exist, such as

effect in March 1979, few people believed that within

strengthening the Chaing Mai Initiative and the Asian

two decades a single European currency would be a

Bond Fund and managing diverse exchange rates, we

reality. At the time of inception the European Currency

clearly need to create and strengthen international

Unit (ECU) had as little chance of becoming Europe’s

safeguards and promote the use and acceptance of a

currency as Special Drawing Rights (SDR) had of

parallel currency. The move towards an ACU as a legal

becoming the world’s currency.

tender alongside domestic currencies will necessitate

If the Asian Development Bank takes the European model forward and creates a parallel currency that is a plural basket of national currencies, the Asian region as a whole will gain some decoupling from the US

among participating countries and, as with Germany in Europe, the role of a centre country or centre countries also needs to be clear.

dollar. This will allow economic agents in the region to

The US dollar currently acts as the de facto parallel

invoice financial and trade transactions in a common

currency in Asia, just as it did in Europe in the early

currency and reduce exchange rate risks as well as

1970s. However the fast emerging global rebalance is

channel Asia’s savings more efficiently within the

very different to the world of the 1970s and

region. As a regional benchmark, the ACU will help

necessitates a move away from the dollar. It is in the

share the degree of divergence of each participating

interest of the Asian central banks to move away from

countries’

the

the dollar to assets denominated in an alternative

understanding of generic problems in a particular

currency, and the ACU can be that alternative. If the

currency’s market and in pursuing macroeconomic

ACU becomes a global reserve currency then a much-

policies. The ACU can be used to devise new

needed, major world shift can occur: Central banks can

instruments that can be easily traded across borders;

diversify their foreign currency reserves and hold part of

importers and exporters can denominate intra-Asian

their reserves in ACU; investors can invest in ACU

trade in ACU; and governments and corporate bodies

denominated instruments; and both corporations and

may wish to issue bonds in ACU and banks can take

national governments can finance their operations by

deposits and provide loans denominated in ACU. The

issuing ACU denominated debt. Such a move will have

widespread use of ACU will definitely increase the

a positive impact on reduction of global imbalance as it

extent of financial and trade integration in this part of

will hasten the depreciation of the US dollar vis-à-vis

the world. As such Asia as a whole, rather than as

other countries.

currencies,

which

will

improve

individual countries, will achieve more balanced influence in the global economy.

36

significant monetary and exchange rate cooperation

Future of Currency


It is in the interest of the Asian central banks to move away from the dollar to assets denominated in an alternative currency, and the ACU can be that alternative.

37


D J Collins Head of Corporate Communications and Public Affairs, Google

Future of Data

38


The Global Challenge The future of data is a broad topic, which can cover a range of issues: some technical, some regulatory, some social and others philosophical. The web is still a young technology - it has only been twenty years since Sir Tim Berners-Less and Robert Cailliau invented it at CERN: It will take many decades for us to fully understand its impact on our society. And the pace of change on the Internet, and that which is enabled by the Internet, is speeding up. Whatever happens, as it continues to develop, we’ll be presented with more

Access to information is the great leveller. It empowers citizens and consumers alike.

opportunities and more challenges. The web is a fundamentally democratic platform, and it reflects both positive and negative aspects of the offline world. If we take the field of data to encompass all digital

new challenges of the online world. Google is involved

factual information, the current work of both leaders

in many of these, but for me the big issue at the heart

and emerging companies suggest the issues that will

of the future is that of access to information…to data.

arise in years to come. Companies such as IBM, Oracle

Today, anyone with an internet connection has access

and SAS are making strides in data mining and

to more information, quickly and easily, than was

database management. Their research shows that

available a generation ago to anyone not connected to

intelligent systems will become increasingly prevalent.

a research library or university. That’s an amazing

Other organisations, like Amazon, Sun and even

development, but we should remember that less than a

Google, are demonstrating the amazing benefits in

quarter of people globally have access to the web. New

scale and interoperability that come through moving

developments will increase the speed, scale and

data storage into the cloud. And, if one was to talk to

sophistication of the data we can use, but, for most

the people who are driving the web forward, they

people, there is still a high barrier to access.

anticipate a more powerful, flexible and useful web in the years to come. The much-touted ‘semantic web’in which the relationships between pieces of information will be both apparent and useable - may not be imminent, but it’s certainly within sight. Its advent will drive further research, and it will also make the web more useful to people around the world.

Access to information is the great leveller. It empowers citizens and consumers alike. That’s why it’s imperative that access to data be fast, cheap, and ubiquitous, whether you are in the New York, Shanghai, Lagos or Patagonia. Right now, in many parts of Africa and Asia, internet connectivity is both expensive and slow. As such, the positive benefits of the information age have

As investment and regulation follows rapid development

been unevenly enjoyed. Addressing this disparity is a

of potential technologies, they will have to adapt to the

clear and significant challenge for the future.

Future of Data

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What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org

Options and Possibilities One certainty is that information discovery will continue to get better.

The beauty of the internet, and therefore by association access to data, is in its unpredictability. The web’s openness means that new innovations appear online every day. Some succeed and others don’t, and successes spawn further innovation. Two years ago, for example, very few people would have predicted the role that Twitter and YouTube played in the Iranian elections. Even so, as we look ahead, some things are clear. One certainty is that information discovery will continue

Also apparent today is the role mobile phones will play

to get better. Wouldn’t it be good to have a system that

in improving access to the Internet (and therefore to

asks questions as well as answers them? A recent

data). There are already nearly 4 billion mobile phones

article in the Economist described how this could

in use today around the world, and over 80% of

revolutionise innovation as we know it - citing a

humanity lives within range of a mobile network. At the

research chemist at Pfizer as an illustrative example.

same time, the cost of web-ready phones continues to

How cool would it be if he could find solutions to one

fall. Computers are getting smaller and cheaper, and

of the mysteries of science, perhaps cure a disease,

the next generation of mobile networks will improve

simply by asking the right question of the web? A

access speeds. Already, net-books can cost as little as

semantic search engine that has read (and understood)

$200, making them cheap enough to be given away

all the relevant literature, interrogated the patent

with mobile-broadband contracts in some countries.

libraries and medical records, and studied the chemical theory, etc, might well suggest workable solutions. Science fiction? Perhaps, but imagine the value of a system that understands the relationships between information in different corpora, created with vastly different uses in mind.

still be real challenges connecting some places to the larger Internet. There is reason for hope, though: a series of new cables are in the works to improve Africa’s connectivity with the rest of the world, increasing capacity and reducing the cost of internet

It also seems clear that access to data will help to widen

access. The first of these, the SEACOM cable, eastern

the pool of potential creative ideas - a step on from

Africa’s first modern submarine cable, was completed

crowd sourcing towards democratized innovation. Think

in July 2009. In coming years, some places in Africa

of Wikipedia, the online encyclopaedia written by its

may well have higher speed connections than parts of

users, or iStockphoto allowing amateur photographers

Europe.

to earn money selling their pictures alongside professionals. Each combines cheap and widely available tools to allow talented people to make the most of the Internet’s distribution efficiency, and this trend is only beginning. Closer to hand is the migration of computer applications from the desktop to the web. In this shift to cloud computing, more and more of our personal and professional lives will be spent using our web browsers. That means browsers will have to be stable, powerful, and above all secure.

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Even when mobile access becomes universal, there will

Future of Data

Doubling the number of people online will have an amazing impact on innovation. More people (with more diverse experiences than ever before) will be able to contribute to the innovation happening online. That’s a very exciting prospect.


The Way Forward If we consider what has been achieved in the past ten years, over the next decade we have the opportunity to give more and more power to users. In the world of ubiquitous and uniform access, intelligent agents and the semantic web, we have the potential to enable even greater shifts in transparency and access to data than previous generations would have ever imagined. However, to achieve this we need to move forward on two key topics that will moderate the impact that can be achieved. One pivotal issue will be identity online, as people

The second and related issue, that I think needs to be

become more comfortable managing what information

taken several steps forward in the next couple of years,

they share about themselves, and with whom. Many

concerns regulation. There is an on-going discussion

services on the web improve quickly when they people

about how to limit the uses of personal information

give them access to personal information. An example:

without compromising innovation or decreasing access

in the process of crawling the web, Google visits more

to information. Different countries have significantly

than a trillion different pages. Several billion more are

different views on this, but, as national boundaries

added every day. Finding the right information is like

become less significant in a world of digital natives, we

having a fraction of a second to find a needle in a

need to decide what rules are necessary and how those

haystack of astronomical proportions. The links

rules should be formulated. We all need to understand

between web pages are the first indicator of how

the balance and consider the possibility for increasing

important any given page is, but our search logs provide

transparency in both directions. If people are given

an excellent form of feedback on whether we're

access to data to re-use, the power of innovation shifts

providing the best results. But if people are comfortable

to the public, and the potential for sharing of more ideas

sharing their search history with us, we can use that as

increases exponentially.

If people are comfortable sharing their search history with us, we can use that as a valuable signal to provide them more relevant information more quickly.

a valuable signal to provide them more relevant information more quickly.

Impacts and Implications Substantive research has already shown us that access to information has significant impact on quality of life from an economic, social and political perspective in many dimensions. For example, think first of the fishermen who can now identify in advance where they are most likely to get the best price for their catch and so sail straight to the port and thus improve their efficiency and also profitability. Or think of the student who can check online to see where friends a meeting up - and then decide whether to join in knowing who will be around, what the music will be like and, even get information about how to get there. Access to new data is already changing lives - what it will do in the future is pretty much only limited by our imagination.

Future of Data

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Leo Roodhart President, Society of Petroleum Engineers and VP Group GameChanger, Shell

Future of Energy

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The Global Challenge The global energy system sits at the nexus of some of the deepest dilemmas of our times: prosperity versus poverty; globalization versus security; and growth versus the environment. Current energy trends are patently unsustainable — socially, environmentally, economically. That said, there is still plenty of oil and gas to be found and produced, most of it is in increasingly difficult places - whether that’s difficult geology, difficult environmental conditions or difficult politics. Whatever happens, supplies of easy-to-produce oil will

motivations for globalization: For example, as China

certainly not keep up with growing energy demand.

does not have many of own resources in oil and gas

This is because, as economies grow and ascend the

(but lots of coal), the Chinese NOCs such as CNPC,

energy ladder, demand is likely to double over the first

CNOOC and PetroChina all have a responsibility to

half of this century and we simply cannot increase (oil

provide the ‘motherland’ with secure energy supplies.

and gas) production that fast. Even if we produce

Simultaneously, the NOCs of the major resource

energy from all possible sources it will be difficult to

holders such as KOC (Kuwait), Petronas (Malaysia)

meet the world’s growing needs. Within this context,

want to expand globally in the downstream, i.e.

while oil will remain the leading energy source and there

refineries, forecourts arenas, and so by-pass the

will be some price volatility, the era of cheap oil is over.

‘middle man’ (IOCs) who traditionally refine and sell

The key questions being asked here are when is global

their crude oil. Others, like Saudi Aramco, simply want

oil and gas production going to peak? This could be

to decrease their dependency on the technology owned

anytime between now and 2040 for oil and a decade

by the IOCs and develop their own staff. The key

later for gas. How can we take it out of the ground fast

questions being raised here are therefore what will the

enough to meet demand? How can we fill the gap

role of the IOCs be in the future? And how can they

between supply and demand from renewable energy

play a role in, for example, sustaining supplies of

such as wind, solar, etc or from coal or nuclear energy

affordable and responsibly produced oil and gas,

when, historically, it has taken 25 years for new energy

through better technology, cost reductions, more

sources and carriers to obtain a 1 percent share of the

efficient operations and fresh thinking?

global market following commercial introduction? And will there be one leading alternative energy source?

The global energy system sits at the nexus of some of the deepest dilemmas of our times: prosperity versus poverty; globalization versus security; and growth versus the environment.

Lastly, turning to the major challenge of climate change, we have to be clear that emissions of CO2 and

To add more complexity, the oil market itself is also

other greenhouse gases are on an unsustainable

undergoing major and lasting internal structural change,

pathway. To avoid "abrupt and irreversible" climate

with National Oil Companies (NOCs) in the ascendancy

change we need a major decarbonization of the world’s

against the Integrated Oils Companies (IOCs) such as

energy system.

Shell, BP and Exxon. The NOCs have different

Future of Energy

43


What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org

Options and Possibilities One of the main uncertainties is around global reserves of hydrocarbons: Nobody really knows how much oil and gas Saudi Arabia or Russia has.

Over the next decade and beyond, there are three main certainties which we call the 3 hard truths - increased demand for energy, an associated struggle for supply to keep pace; and, consequently, increasing environmental stresses: We cannot stop China and India from growing. Within this context, it is evident that hydrocarbons (oil and gas) will remain the primary energy source of choice for the coming decades, gas will become more important in the mix but both will be increasingly difficult to extract. Having picked much of the low-hanging fruit, our industry is now focused on more difficult resources such as tight reservoirs, fractured carbonates, oil shale, oil sands, and ultra-heavy oil. The other certainty is that, faced with the now fully

on reducing the CO2 intensity of fossil fuels. However,

transparent challenges ahead, the world will electrify,

the infrastructure required to capture and transport the

particularly in the mobility arena. While big-city traffic

CO2 we want to eliminate will be massive, roughly

such as buses, taxis and trams will come first,

equal to the current infrastructure (pipelines, tankers,

developments in high-end electric cars, such as those

facilities) to extract and transport oil and gas across the

being introduced by Tesla, may help to accelerate

globe. It is highly uncertain whether the world will be

awareness and acceptance for the general car driving

able to build that in time.

public to switch to electric. That said, the main source of electricity will continue to be from power plants burning hydrocarbons for many decades: Sufficient large-scale renewable electrons will not be available before the middle of the century.

energy sources, CCS is a transition technology the world simply cannot do without. Indeed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) states that

One of the main uncertainties is around global reserves

it could provide over half of the global CO2 emissions

of hydrocarbons: Nobody really knows how much oil

mitigation effort until 2100. But, in the short term,

and gas Saudi Arabia or Russia has. It is therefore

while seeking to deploy CO2 Capture and Storage

uncertain when global hydrocarbon production will

technologies, many of the world’s energy companies

peak, level off or start to decline. We all recognise that

are also trying to address the challenge by reducing

alternative sources of energy, renewables, coal and

the CO2-intensity of fossil energy by delivering more

nuclear are needed to fill the gap: Shell’s scenario

natural gas, the cleanest-burning fossil fuel and by

experts believe that renewable sources could provide

helping the world to broaden the energy mix, with

around 30% of the world’s energy by the middle of this

involvement in wind, solar and, in particular, bio-fuels.

century, up from around 3% today. That would be

While the bio-fuels arena is fast developing from first

impressive growth, but it also means that it will take

to second generation and also to marine algae, there

forty years to get there and that fossil fuels and nuclear

are also interesting developments around solar

will supply the remaining 70% even then.

energy. Electricity generated by solar panels is

While we wait for alternative energy to reach material scale, we may well find it impossible to curb CO2 emissions in time because of the continuously increasing overall demand for energy. Therefore to prevent severe climate shocks we need to also focus

44

Given the long timelines involved in delivering new

Future of Energy

predicted to become cheaper than electricity from large scale coal or gas burning power plants within the next 5 years, and countries like Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia are planning large-scale solar power plants in the desert.


At the same time, given the energy supply challenge,

developing new reserves, which will have an impact on

over the next ten years it is likely that enormous

the oil price. Although the price of oil will always be

amounts of money will be invested in finding and

volatile, it is unlikely that oil will become cheap again.

The days of ‘easy oil and gas’ are over.

Proposed Way Forward At Shell, we think the world could take one of two energy routes over the next 50 years, which we've called - Scramble and Blueprints. These are both challenging outlooks. Neither are ideal worlds, yet both are feasible. They describe an era of transformation. The choices made in the next five years will be critical in determining which route is taken. • Scramble summary: In the Scramble scenario,

fuels. As calls for harmonization increase, policies

nations will rush to secure energy resources, fearing

converge

that energy security is a zero-sum game, with clear

mechanisms that put a cost on industrial CO2

winners and losers. The use of local coal and home

emissions gain international acceptance. Rising

grown bio-fuels will increase fast. Taking the path of

CO2 prices accelerate innovation, thus spawning

least resistance, policymakers will pay little attention

breakthroughs. The energy system is much more

to curbing energy consumption - until supplies run

stable and environmental outcomes are much better

short. Likewise, despite much rhetoric, greenhouse

than in the Scramble world.

gas emissions are not seriously addressed until major shocks trigger political reactions. Since these responses are overdue, they are severe and lead to energy price spikes and volatility. This is a turbulent and uncomfortable world with many tensions and insufficient attention to environmental issues. • Blueprints summary: in this scenario energy security, energy supply and environmental challenges are

across

the

globe.

Cap-and-trade

The best path forward would be to live and work in a “Blueprint” world of a more stable energy system and a more sustainable environment. This future offers a better pathway to provide enough energy for economic growth while managing greenhouse gas emissions. I see three key areas where our industry can play a positive role in promoting a gradual energy transformation:

anticipated and coalitions emerge to take the lead in

First, we need to supply sufficient amounts of

dealing with them. Much innovation occurs at the

affordable oil and gas to meet the world’s growing

local level, as major cities develop links with industry

energy needs. The days of ‘easy oil and gas’ are over.

to reduce local emissions. National governments

Although there are still huge reserves in the Middle East

introduce efficiency standards, taxes and other policy

and possibly Russia, the western Integrated Oil

instruments

environmental

Companies (IOCs) have little or no access to those

performance of buildings, vehicles and transport

reserves. The IOCs will focus in the coming decades

to

improve

the

Future of Energy

45


What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org

Gas will become more dominant and technologies to liquefy gas through cooling or by chemically turning gas into diesel will require massive investments for the years to come.

on the very high-tech, difficult reserves that can be

transportation

found in the Arctic and ultra deep water as well as the

electrification for a long time to come, especially since

technically challenging shale oil and ultra heavy oils

electric mobility will depend for many years on coal and

found in the Canadian oil sands. Gas will become more

other non-renewable resources. The world’s vehicle

dominant and technologies to liquefy gas through

fleet will more than double between now and 2050.

cooling (LNG) or by chemically turning gas into diesel

With a billion new vehicles on the world’s roads there

(Gas-to-liquid) will require massive investments for the

will be room and need for diverse energy sources for

years to come (Shell will invest in excess of $30bn in

transportation. The oil industry may play a role in

2009, and Exxon will do similar).

delivering more sustainable electricity, including through

Secondly, we need to reduce the CO2 intensity of fossil fuels. The International Energy Authority believes that in

to

compete

with

vehicle

natural gas, the cleanest burning fossil fuel, and through CCS.

the period to 2030 the growth in CO2 emissions from

Thirdly, we can help the world to increase the share of

coal fired power generation in just three countries -

non-fossil fuels: Most oil and gas companies are

China, India and the US - will be double the growth in

developing new areas of expertise outside of

emissions from all the transport worldwide. So the first

hydrocarbons. Shell has serious involvement in wind,

priority should be to deploy CCS in the power sector,

has proprietary thin-film solar technology, and is a

especially coal-fired power. In the transport sector,

leading player in bio-fuels. For the next few years, for

where we can’t capture CO2 from billions of exhaust

Shell it’s in bio-fuels where we will concentrate our

pipes, the challenge is to reduce the CO2-intensity on

additional efforts. Bio-fuels are a natural fit with Shell’s

a ‘wells-to-wheels’ basis: We can make big gains by

downstream capabilities in transport fuel, and, provided

mixing in sustainable bio-fuels, building lighter-weight

they are sourced sustainably, they can make a huge

vehicles, and developing more efficient engines. In the

impact in reducing CO2 emissions from transport.

longer term, we can add CCS to hydrocarbon fuel

Other IOCs, such as Chevron, will choose to focus on

production to bring down well-to-wheel emissions even

a mix of alternatives varying from solar to wind.

further. Cumulatively, these measures will allow liquid

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fuels

Future of Energy


Impacts and Implications The problems the world is facing around energy in the decades to come can only be solved by global cooperation at an unprecedented scale. Massive investments are required in increased efficiency in using energy and in solving the Global warming issue. The Blueprints scenario will be realized only if policymakers agree on a global approach to emissions trading and actively promote energy efficiency and new technology in four sectors: heat and power generation, industry, transport, and buildings. It is critical that the Copenhagen summit in December must deliver a credible post-2012 climate regime. Time is short and we must move fast and with the same ingenuity and persistence that put humans on the moon and created the digital age. For instance we will need to develop Carbon Capture and Storage on a large scale. The Blueprints scenarios assumes that CO2 is captured at 90% of all coal- and gas-fired power plants in developed countries by 2050, plus at least 50% of those in non-OECD countries. It is a big assumption; today, none capture CO2.

Because CO2 capture and storage adds costs and yields no revenues, government support is needed to make it happen quickly on a scale large enough to affect global emissions.

Because CO2 capture and storage adds costs and yields no revenues, government support is needed to make it happen quickly on a scale large enough to affect global emissions. At the very least, companies should earn carbon credits for the CO2 they capture and store.

Future of Energy

47


Jim Kirkwood Vice President R&D at the Center for Technology Creation, General Mills

Future of Food

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The Global Challenge The demand, supply and composition of food over the next decade is facing a number of major challenges ranging from demographics, obesity, hunger and food security to the implications of globalization, sustainability, consumer choice and new technologies. Taken in isolation, each of these challenges provides us with some fundamental decisions. Taken together they are a formidable and accelerating global test. In terms of demographics, we all now recognize that

Given that ‘government’ uses regulation and taxes to

with the world’s population growing to around 7bn by

drive change, a question is what the impact on the

2020 and 9bn by 2050, meeting our collective

economics and profitability of the food industry will be?

nutritional needs is going to be a stretch. Adding on to

Globalization continues to break down geographic

this is the growing middle class in Asia and Africa, who

barriers and equalize food economies across the world,

are demanding more of the less calorically efficient

so we face several uncertainties around food supply:

western diet, and, as a consequence, there will be a significant strain on world food resources. Moreover, with an ageing world demanding new healthful foods and a more fragmented market demanding more customization and personalization, food companies are asking how they can deliver the right food to the developed world while delivering enough food to meet the needs and desires in Asia and Africa.

We are in a world of paradox where a growing portion of the developed world is obese at the same time as 15% of the global population is facing hunger and malnutrition as they can’t afford to buy the basics.

The need for renewable sources of energy is driving the food vs. fuel conflict as bio-fuels compete for food acres and increasing competition raises commodity prices; population change, climate change and security challenges all increase variability and make food supply costs less predictable; and, because of the increasing demand from developing countries, there is significant trade-offs between calories of grain vs. calories of meat

We are in a world of paradox where a growing portion

and dairy which means that complete protein

of the developed world is obese at the same time as

commodities are becoming increasingly scarce and

15% of the global population is facing hunger and

alternative sources will be required. How then can we

malnutrition as they can’t afford to buy the basics. As

control ingredient and energy costs in order to make

a result food suppliers are looking for ways to both

nutritious food that people will want to buy? How can

design foods to help some people eat less while also

we ensure that we will have enough protein to meet

delivering food that is affordable, safe and nutritious

global needs? How do we ensure a predictable supply

for those who need more. How can we best balance

of food? And how will new consumers change the

this equation?

demand cycle?

We are also in a world where food safety is a growing

On top of all of this, there is the sustainability challenge:

not diminishing concern. With increased evidence of

As ever, more unstable weather adds uncertainty to

food-borne illnesses and more prevalent, virulent

overall food supply and costs, so will increasing over-

natural as well as malicious man-made safety issues,

exploitation of land resources and the depletion of

we must protect our supplies in order to mitigate the

aquifers result in a decrease in the acres of arable land

risks. The world regulatory environment is consequently

available to grow enough food. In addition, over-fishing

becoming ever more restrictive and the food industry

of oceans will continue to decrease the supply and

has to both build trust with consumers at the same time

increase the cost of fish protein.

as using new affordable technologies to ensure that their food is safe and secure.

Future of Food

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What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org

Options and Possibilities Consumer perceptions around the necessary trade-offs between food science vs. food simplicity will be a challenge to manage

There are three main certainties about the next decade which can be seen as demographic, environmental and technological. Demographically, as the overall global population

Consumer perceptions around the necessary trade-offs

increases we know, for instance, that by 2020 China

between food science vs. food simplicity will be a

and India will have over 33% of the total and the US

challenge to manage and may impact the ability of the

will, for example, become more ethnically diverse. We

food industry to implement the needed solutions: Will

know that the food market is very fragmented and there

consumers, for instance, accept the need for

is no ‘one size fits all’ and as the health challenges of

genetically modified or artificial foods in order to feed

obesity and malnutrition continue. We know that more

the masses and provide health benefits at lower cost

healthy, nutritious food is a ‘must have’. We also know

or will they want more natural foods? Equally changing

that the right amount of food will not be in the right

consumer preferences are uncertain: Will demand for

places to feed the world affordably.

expensive individual customization continue to increase

Environmentally, as oil-based energy resources diminish and water for agricultural use becomes more limited, we know that commodities, and especially meat and dairy proteins, will become more expensive. As the world becomes more connected, there will be more

Will traditional branded products remain relevant and valued as retailers build their own-brand products? Will customers want convenient single-serve portions while also wanting to be more sustainable?

global crises related to biological and chemical factors

Pharma-foods, the intersection between food and

such as SARS, Avian Flu, H1N1 etc. These crises will

pharmaceuticals, is an area of growing opportunity for

have socio-economic effects that cause industry shifts

many in the food sector. As consumers demand more

in demand and supply as imports / exports are

technologically sophisticated foods with unique,

restricted and all of certain livestock (i.e. the chickens

complex health benefits, food companies will need to

in a region) are killed - remember Hong Kong in 1997

respond. We now understand more about individual’s

and 2008?

disease propensities from the human genome.

Technologically, over the next decade, there will be significant advances in areas such as bioengineering, genetics and nutrition. Advances in information technologies will improve the production and distribution of food. However more paradoxes will continue to exist: obesity vs. malnutrition; traditional authentic vs. bioactive delivery; sustainability vs. convenience; and the anti GMO consumer attitude vs. the need for GMO to feed the world. What we are less sure about are the unpredictability in consumer attitudes and the technical potential of ‘pharma foods’.

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while consumers also want less expensive products?

Future of Food

Therefore nutrigenomic determination of diet becomes technically possible. Technology is advancing and as natural bioactive components are better understood, the line between pharma and food will blur: The challenge will be how to continue to find new ways to continue to provide natural, food-delivered preventative health benefits and begin to provide natural, fooddelivered disease state improvement benefits without food becoming a drug.


Proposed Way Forward By 2020, it is probable that there will be a number of global policies in place on climate change, energy and agricultural methods. These will be supported by incentives and public / private collaborations to develop new technical solutions. Regulation is likely that will, for example, direct land usage for meat and dairy production vs. grain and it is a good bet that another ‘green revolution’ will increase the yield of food supply possibly involving bioengineering and genetic modification. These could deliver step-change increases in the efficiency of food production and may involve frame-breaking science such as edible oil from algae and lab-grown meat protein. In addition, the development of non-meat, high protein foods as meat alternatives or acceptable protein vegetable alternatives could help us more efficiently meet the increasing world protein demand. I see that to both enable and build on this, we should

In order to achieve this, a number of compromises may

establish a global infrastructure to incentivize

be required - some of which are within the control of

public/private collaboration and investment consortia

the food industry and others not: Free market principles

that can be leveraged to advance the necessary

may be compromised as governments become more

technical solutions to address malnutrition, obesity and

involved in the food business; food companies may

increasing agricultural production. We need to

need to consider sharing intellectual property more,

significantly increase global research investment in

being open with technical breakthroughs and, in certain

biotechnology, genetics, food science and nutrition to

cases, trading off competitive advantage for the greater

reach the technical breakthroughs required for a

good; food industry profit margin expectations may

second agricultural green revolution that will enable us

need to be adjusted or subsidized in order to enable the

to feed the world. In addition we must invest in

provision of sufficient food in key regions such as India;

exploration/research and development of the meat and

producers may be forced to accept reductions in crop

vegetable protein alternatives that can efficiently meet

yields to comply with sustainability demands, implement

the world’s increasing need. We should also initiate a

significant shifts in agricultural production methods and

coordinated worldwide science education effort to help

also grow non-traditional crops to produce the right

developed populations of the world understand and

food in the right quantity for the right geography; the

accept the technical solutions that will be required solve

established western companies will need to develop

the coming world food crisis.

partnerships with new companies from developing

At the same time, we must continue to support Africa, India and China in building viable economies to bring the vast numbers of their populations out of starvation and poverty; we should incentivize developing countries to invest more heavily in their own R&D for

We need to significantly increase global research investment in biotechnology, genetics, food science and nutrition to reach the technical breakthroughs required for a second agricultural green revolution that will enable us to feed the world.

countries to gain access to the new markets where most of the economic growth will take place; and traditional western agribusiness approaches may need to change as Asian populations grow and these markets become dominant.

self sufficiency and potential global trade; and we need to build substantial food education programs across the world which focus on dietary and nutritional health and wellbeing.

Future of Food

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What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org

Impacts and Implications In the next decade, the world economics of food will change and food will change the economics of the world. Investment in food production, research and technology development must become a priority.

In the next decade, the world economics of food will change and food will change the economics of the world. Investment in food production, research and technology development must become a priority. Consumers and society in general will need to become more literate in science and more science education will be required for the population to understand and accept the technology required to feed the world: The natural / local / authenticity trend may become obsolete. The global community (governments, academia and industry) will need to collaborate in a much more effective way or face the societal, ethical and political consequences of large portions of the population not having the food they need. World food production and agriculture must become more globally integrated - A true working world market will be required. Decisions on where and what to produce must be made on a global basis not on an individual market or geography. Political and societal pressure for change will increase as the population and need for affordable food increases in Asia, Africa and India and the disparity between the West and emerging economies around food becomes even more stark. As a result, the dietary habits of consumers may well

both impact and be impacted by future choice,

change due to availability and the prices of agricultural

authenticity, connectivity, work and money. Food is

materials: For example, western populations may need

fundamental to economics, politics and other societal

to adjust to consuming more plant based sources of

issues whether directly or as support technologies.

protein as their choices for protein may decrease. In addition, driven by economic and/or political pressure, consumers may also be required to change their food shopping habits.

attitudes right, over the next ten years we can make a shift: We really do have the opportunity to address the challenges presented to food by the demands of

The future of food will have major implications for many

demographics, obesity, hunger and food security and

other areas: The supply of energy; the use of water;

the implications of globalization and sustainability. The

the processing of waste and the state of our health are

issue is how best to do this collaboratively.

all obvious arenas of direct influence, but food will also

52

If we get the regulation, technology and consumer

Future of Food


Decisions on where and what to produce must be made on a global basis not on an individual market or geography.

53


Dr Jack Lord CEO, Navigenics Inc.

Future of Health

54


The Global Challenge The world is a connected and shrinking place - and whilst we all are connected - the global issues for health are both dissimilar but connected! How so? I see three major challenges: Firstly, between now and 2020 we are likely to see

corresponding investment in prevention and health.

somewhere between 2 to 3 global pandemics. Several

The industrial age model of treating disease in hospitals

years ago the pandemic of Avian flu began in Asia;

or other high intervention settings has almost a “nuclear

today the world faces the Swine flu that can be traced

arms” like pace of investment that outstrip any evidence

back to central and south America. And tomorrow? In

of improved productivity or quality of life. So issue

general these pandemics arise in areas that do not

number two: “The world is older, sicker and fatter” than

have the top tier of preventative or public health

it has ever been.

infrastructure and, from there, spread to the advanced Western countries. And our ability to achieve global bio-surveillance for disease is limited because of unequal infrastructure, inadequate local investments and only limited global cooperation. So issue number one is bio-surveillance and adequacy of public health infrastructure.

We are victims of our own success. By successfully “rooting out” the causes of death and at least deferring death, we have ended up in a spot with far more people living into age bands that the world hasn’t had experience before. Consider this - today there are more people living over the age of 65 than ever have before in the entire history of the world! How do we adjust to

This raises the age-old social questions about

new roles for people in these age bands? How do we

re-distribution of wealth from the richest nations to the

engage their minds so that they remain active and

poorest ones. Perhaps this is the decade that it will

contributing in the face of age related changes? What

occur? If “enlightened self-interest” is a driver of

are the new rules for work, retirement, and “family”?

behaviour, then in a world with airplanes, ships, and

What do our communities need to look like? And

dependencies on global sourcing for food, it seems only

stepping beyond that the “rules” of history around work,

logical to attack the pre-existing conditions that give

exercise, food and natural resources are turned upside

rise to pandemic and invest in the infrastructure to track

down. In a world where we used to get paid for

and treat. Of the issues the “answer” is the easiest of

physical work, we now pay to go to gyms to work out!

the global challenges - the question is “is there a will to

We have created incredible productivity for relatively

do this?”

cheap food and have been super sized as a result! And

Secondly, for the industrialized world from the United States to Europe to Japan the cost burdens of healthcare in the face of demographic shifts (aging), increasing rate of chronic illness and related pre-cursor conditions (eg obesity) present enormous systemic challenges. The increasing cost of these effects

Between now and 2020 we are likely to see somewhere between 2 to 3 global pandemics.

today we pay more for water than we do for petrol. So, issues like behavioral change, social policies around obesity and personal responsibility for health, public investment in programs to prevent illness through a variety of means are all questions in an incredibly complex situation.

government and personal budgets but has failed to

Thirdly, the role of healthcare as an important part of

provoke a change in approach. The context of these

the economic infrastructure is often overlooked.

systems is a cultural “more is better” attitude to the

Balancing investments in new technologies, prevention,

investment in treatment of illness without a

healthcare related Information Technology with existing

Future of Health

55


What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org

China, India and the Middle East are all seeing spikes in the rates of diabetes, heart disease and obesity. It is an inevitable march that seems to be associated with affluence and a knowledge based economy.

labor intense processes present a challenge. The

and the other around the process of discovery. On

balancing is complex in and of itself, so high

provisioning, when will the industry join the “information

expenditure already does not guarantee a high level of

age”, how will it rethink the labor and productivity

quality. Above and beyond this whilst almost every

related challenges, and how and who will provide

industrialized country has undertaken some approaches

prevention services? Embedded in this discussion is the

to healthcare reform, none have tackled the

entire transition from a “sick care” system to a “health

fundamental economic questions about healthcare, the

care” system. The investment in discovery will parallel

healthcare workforce, and healthcare investment. This

that transition - from “thermonuclear war” against death

issue needs to be contextualized to the other societal

to the aspirational march to improving health and the

investments that need to be made in education,

quality of life. How do government policies need to

sustainability and infrastructure. So issue number three

change to re-prioritize these investments? How does

is the ‘right’ amount of healthcare to spend as a

government thinking need to move from “budgeter” to

percentage of GDP.

“risk manager”? And how do new discoveries around

There are two tracks here: One related to the revamping of the provisioning of health care services

genetics, probabilistic medicine and regeneration influence the balance of prevention vs. treatment?

Options and Possibilities As the old saying goes “nothing is certain but death and taxes”. But the pandemic of chronic illness and obesity is about as certain as one could come too. And that certainty isn’t only for the developed world; it appears to be certain for the developing world as well: China, India and the Middle East are all seeing spikes in the rates of diabetes, heart disease and obesity. It is an inevitable march that seems to be associated with affluence and a knowledge based economy. There is a reasonable level of certainty to the waves of

has greater demands. On discovery, high probability of

infectious pandemics - what is not clear is the source

a “fly” wheel effect for new diagnostic and therapeutic

and vectors. But given history, these diseases seem

interventions; a questionable appetite to rebalance and

to follow a wave form and become generally more

invest in prevention

complex to treat and eradicate. On the provisioning of health care, inertia seems to be

A holistic view of what needs to change for the twenty

the greatest force. Whilst there are many great

first century and a geographically focused bottom up

discussions of healthcare reforms, the betting man

for reforming healthcare systems.

would need to say that the problems as they exist today will only grow as budgets get leaner and the population

56

There are two paths that need to be worked in parallel.

Future of Health


Holistically the possible changes that need to be

one where a balanced research investment - disease

considered include; the move from a sick-care system

and prevention. In parallel with this, we can choose to

to a healthcare systems accompanied by a shift from a

migrate from provincial mindsets of health systems to a

passive view to health to a more active view to co-

more global view of health and disease, and move from

creating health. At the same time we could change

a professional driven system to a popular frame of

from conducting research to treat disease primarily to

consumer driven health.

In an ideal world the organizations responsible for global health would move from their marginalized roles to a lead role on the public stage.

Proposed Way Forward Given the three main issues of improving bio-surveillance and adequacy of public health infrastructure; dealing with a world that is older, sicker and fatter than it has ever been; and, at the same time, determining the “right” amount of healthcare spend as a percentage of GDP, we have some pretty substantial challenges to address. However, as outlined above, we also have a number of alternatives available to us. So what is the best path forward? Many would now agree that, from the bottom up,

with subsequent strategies for mitigating or eliminating

individual health economies need to undertake

risk; leveraging the emerging power of science that

assessments of future risk and management of future

allows us to predict future health and take organized

health inflation. In addition, we need to establish public

steps to prevent illness; creating a global approach to

policy forums around entitlement to health, sharing

sharing best practices, standards for information

risks, personal responsibility, and basic health access

technology platforms; leveraging technologies to

vs. specialized healthcare services. The exploration of

improve bio-surveillance and; providing education and

the utility and impact of social media, transparency of

access to social media resources that enable people to

information and incentives and rewards for healthy

better co-create their own health as opposed to being

behaviors is another one on the ‘to-do’ list. On top of

dependent on a sick-care system or be subject to

that we should review the effectiveness of bio-

environmental influences that they are completely

surveillance programs and undertake strategic planning

unaware about.

for the role of the healthcare industry in context of domestic economies I see that in an ideal world the organizations responsible for global health would move from their marginalized roles to a lead role on the public stage. From that stage, the items that need to be addressed include; looking at population health from a risk managers view

Future of Health

57


What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org

Impacts and Implications The next decade is not likely to be the time for change, but instead a time that “stressors” on the system become progressively evident. Increased burdens of demography and chronic illness will remain unabated.

While progress could be achieved from quickly addressing the key challenges, unfortunately the most likely outcome is one that results from inertia The next decade is not likely to be the time for change, but instead a time that “stressors” on the system become progressively evident. The march of increased burdens of demography and chronic illness will remain unabated; for industrialized countries the ratio of workers contributing to the system compared to the people utilizing government sponsored entitlements will continue to drop; and international collaboration to prevent illness in underserved regions will likely remain perfunctory. The net - net is we will see continuing and rising concerns about health and health care setting up the next decade for fundamental change. While health changes will affect and be affected by

And we tend to think that the way to reduce health

developments outside in such areas as food,

costs is to beat down the supply of care, when we really

technology, housing, public policy and financing, the

need to invest in preventive strategies today that will

core implications are clear. Each of the issues discussed

reduce the future demand for care. The boundary

contains a paradox that challenges our conventional

between now and later is permeable.

ideas about how we think about these risks.

binary thinking. Between this and that, between us and

shores, in today's interconnected world we may have to

them, between you and me, between now and later,

think about investing in a global public health

there is an infinity of intimate connections that we can't

infrastructure abroad. The boundary between us and

ignore and we can't break. We can't choose between

them is permeable.

personal behavior and social responsibility. It has to be

We tend to view our personal health behaviors as personal and not really anybody else's business but our own, and yet the diseases that issue from our indolence, gluttony, and addictions to tobacco and alcohol are going to be financed by those of us who chose to exercise, eat sensibly, and shun smoke and drink. The boundary between me and you is permeable.

58

To manage these risks we need to get beyond the

To protect ourselves from rogue infections on our own

Future of Health

both because our personal behavior has social consequences. We can't choose between reducing health costs and investing in health promotion - it has to be both or we won't have either. We need a new kind of thinking for the pursuit of health.


We can't choose between reducing health costs and investing in health promotion - it has to be both or we won't have either.

59


Professor Mike Hardy OBE Strategic Leader for Intercultural Dialogue, The British Council

Future of Identity

60


The Global Challenge Identity provokes challenge in many ways. I want to suggest four challenges that might be considered noisier than others: Firstly, what I see as the challenge of ‘more-of-the-

Fourthly, the ‘the-virtual-identities’ challenge. The

same’. There are few signs that the existing challenges

increasing application of smart working and virtual

associated with single-dimension personal and social

engagement is creating whole new paradigms for

identity (whether as social role or type of identity)

identity. Teams of young, professional South Asians

are slowing down. So, North vs. South continues to

are trained in new identity characteristics (US-English

matter - even though new issues of East vs. West are

accents, up-to-the-moment knowledge of current US

also becoming apparent. Similarly, identities around

television soap). Hence, qualified in new role and type

faith, social mobility, language, gender and age,

identities, they can be profitably applied to a call-centre

among others, will continue to create more and

industry but separated from customers; more solemnly,

bigger challenge.

military drone-airplane operators can operate at a

Secondly, the ‘dealing-with-multiple-identities’ challenge is likely to become more complex and more significant. As our world becomes smaller through migration and mobility, both virtual and real, it may be that people and

continental distance and return home to supper with their families at the end of a work-shift. We are turning identities into jobs (rather than jobs into identities) but creating new types of social dislocation.

groups will express themselves more insistently through

If in each of the four cases, “identity” means either a

multiple rather than single identity lenses. So it will be

socially distinguishing feature that a person takes a

the particular ingredients of the ‘cocktail identity’ (the

special pride in, or a social membership governed by

combination of personas and their consequences) which

rules, attributes or behaviours (or both at the same time

will be the more significant. How will we protect and

in certain instances), then the global challenges are

respect apparently contradictory and multiple identities?

around where difference is articulated hierarchically

Will it be through identity personas that we define or will

(haves-have nots, traditional-new, digital native-digital

it be from an integrated set of values?

immigrant, home birds-migrants and so forth.) In the

Thirdly, there is the ‘new-generation-identity’ challenge. This will be where the answers to the ‘who are you?’ questions are framed in completely unexpected ways. Here lies perhaps the most interesting (and

How can we make any assumptions about how a 15-year-old frames her or his definitions about self and awareness of self?

case of the new generation, we may not be able to predict the challenge at all - as we do not yet understand the basic paradigm - and nor by definition should we!

challenging) of all - a new demographic, a new

The uncertainty relating to how well we will manage

generation of (especially younger) people creating or

diversity is another significant issue. In this regard,

reflecting new types of social membership. These

the potential ‘clash of identities’ must relate to

memberships may be a reaction to what we currently

a community membership, let’s say European

have or be the transient results of increasingly fluid

citizenship. This brings with it the complex pattern of

social networking, the automaticity of easy travel and

relationships people have to nationality. Oversimplifying

instantaneous communication. How can we make any

nationality by seeing it as a simple and single

assumptions about how a 15-year-old frames her or his

identity type (and hence in the same way citizenship)

definitions about self and awareness of self?

would be dangerous. Diversity is the existence of

Future of Identity

61


What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org

A certainty over the next ten years will be the contribution of identity issues to diversity, and to the challenges of diversity and of living together in communities of multiple cultures.

multiple and parallel identities within one nation, each

So, given the multi-layered and multi-dimensional

with its own context and origin. These multiple identities

nature of nations, communities and individuals, the

define and describe contemporary citizens (perhaps and

challenge to bring positive coexistence is to develop a

at the same time with a religion, a set of skills, a

cohesive set of values with due regard for diversity and

first/second language, food preferences and so on).

individual rights, and find successful ways of promoting

They are further distinguishable by geographic origin,

difference while also identifying and embedding a

political persuasion, level of education etc.

shared identity among community members.

Options and Possibilities Of course it may be more productive to ask associated questions by dispensing with “identity” and analysing instead the political implications of personal desires for dignity, honour, and self-respect and the politics of the membership of social groups. In a future 2020 European context, for example, a mono-layered European identity is less likely (and maybe even less desirable); socio-economic and political crises, along with a deteriorating climate, will provoke increasing protectionism - essentially stronger boundaries and potential ‘exclusion’ zones that will brigade sameness. That said, a certainty over the next ten years will be the

shared by all members with respect and understanding

contribution of identity issues to diversity, and to the

of their diverse backgrounds and circumstances. A

challenges of diversity and of living together in

cohesive community also displays strong and positive

communities of multiple cultures. It is clear that people

relationships between its members and similar life

will continue to be mobile and migrate in huge numbers

opportunities are actively promoted. So the joining of

as economics, politics, climate and so forth, provide

very different identity types and roles need not lead to

incentives. The more marginalized and excluded groups

a non-cohesive community, but what seems clear in

will probably not join such movement over the next ten

many European and North American contexts is that at

years, constrained by their restricted toolkits and

this moment in time, cohesion is not easy and requires

opportunities. Such mobility will create new sustainable

deliberate policies and actions.

and diverse communities characterised by the much greater proximity of different identity types.

62

Bad experience within diverse communities has been considerable. This has created stronger understanding

Issues of the cohesion of these new communities,

of, but also stronger positions on, the notion of ‘cultural

together with a strengthened sense of protectionism

pluralism’. In the wider Europe, experience of a number

and resistance to further diversification will prevail. In

of different measures and policy approaches following

the UK, communities are seen as communities where

racial and ethnic discrimination and conflict has

there is a common vision and a sense of belonging

increased awareness about various cultures, religions,

Future of Identity


races, ethnicities, attitudes and opinions which might

thing. Above all, peoples will have to come to terms with

be thrown together in a single community. Responses

new community defined identities, which would include

have ranged from so-called ‘Multiculturalism’ (often

Russian-Arab and European and may even challenge

criticised for reinforcing barriers with its emphasis on

the rugby world to add London-Polish to the London-

respect and acknowledgement of differences) to either

Irish in that league. Many other such identities will

dialogue and actions aspiring to openness and

challenge the shaping of communities, nations and

interaction between cultures in order to lead to long

regions characterised not by multiculturalism per se, but

term change or the application of more formal rules of

more by the coincidence and co-existence of multiple

engagement with integration as the planned result.

cultures where transcending difference and somehow

I suspect that in the next decade we are likely to move more quickly and more widely towards an integrated

helping to bring out the strengths (benefits) of living together becomes an imperative.

identity for work and social interaction, although we

Communication technology adds another layer of

may see a serious reinforcement of difference in the

complexity. A significant proportion of this emerging

private world. What will appear as cohesive and

generation may actively and deliberately develop parallel

connected

quite

identities - teenagers constrained by conservative family

schizophrenic. This describes a community where

contexts who use on-line dating and chat rooms to

members play out distinctive identities depending on

create alternative egos and behaviours in the virtual

the community context they find themselves in. Though

world. The potential challenge here may focus on a

this might be a reasonably certain outcome, as yet we

whole generation who fail to ‘comply’ with traditional

do not really understand the nature of the challenge

rules, or who collapse into an inter-generational crisis.

communities

may

well

be

that it creates. It may be that our communities are stable and secure when times are reasonably OK but hugely fragile when exogenous threats appear or bad times arrive.

In the next decade we are likely to move more quickly and more widely towards an integrated identity for work and social interaction.

If what is certain is that communities of different identities will continue to proliferate, and that such communities will increasingly have evident majority and minority ‘identities’, what is not certain is how

As I have implied, peoples in the joined-up and

community members will react and behave. Many

interrelated world of the 21st Century will need to come

believe that unless the diversities and varieties are

to terms with a plethora of pluralistic identities. In the

harnessed and understood as community benefits, we

future, to be a Brazilian or Asian, or indeed a young

have a problem, as more likely than not, without this,

global citizen, will mean being much more than one rigid

communities will not be sustainable.

Future of Identity

63


What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org

Proposed Way Forward The main issues for us to address going forward are the challenges associated with the complex impact of identity and identities in communities.

The main issues for us to address going forward are the challenges associated with the complex impact of identity and identities in communities. There are probably only three possible solutions. Interventions by community (or national) leadership:

community. Dialogue and openness should not be

These would create the formal rules for social identity

about abstract notions of cohesion or integration, but

groups - based on the desired and negotiated shared

about practical things. Communities can sit down and

values. So, this means introducing accepted and

discuss real issues of concern and potential tension.

enforceable laws that govern the behaviours within diverse

communities

and

promote

community

cohesion. These would elevate community practices above difference, and create space for difference to exist as difference.

when difference is seen as threatening - and the threats are greatest when times are bad. This is probably the most plausible approach to mitigation of the worst case identity scenarios, though the extent to

Changing the impact of identity issues by growing

which it is a sustaining and sustainable solution is

understanding and trust within communities: Finding

questionable. Ultimately we can make difference less of

ways of bringing people from different groups together

an issue through prosperity and plenty, but we may not

and encouraging collaboration between these people

actually be addressing the core problem.

helps create more comfort with difference. Recent work suggests that contact is successful in bringing about more positive attitudes towards others, reducing

64

Economic growth and stability: Identities matter most

In my view there are two huge compromises that need to be made for solutions to gain traction and impact.

prejudice and also building long-lasting friendships. The

Firstly, we must have a commitment to an honest, true

approach is based on the premise that everyone,

account of the past. Intercultural exchange cannot be

individually and as a nation, benefits from knowing,

viewed without consideration of global movements and

experiencing and working with other cultures, as the

global communication. It is also often asserted that one

focus with these projects are the commonalities that

can only understand one’s own culture by looking at

bind groups together, rather than their differences.

other cultures. This requires being able to see one’s

Intercultural Dialogue is one of the ways in which

own culture from an outsider’s perspective to some

people can be brought together for such collaboration.

extent; using an historical approach can help.

It is also important to stress the significance of the

Second, diaspora matters. Diasporas provide a key link

individual as well as the community, and the benefits of

between identity, history and now. Engaging with

dialogue between individuals and communities. There is

diaspora space and identity strengthens understanding

probably more to be gained from a culturally open and

of how and where identity and difference are made and

diverse way of life that involves interaction and dialogue

remade. Through migration, peoples are dispersed

with other individuals and groups than there is for a

across many physical borders. Through these journeys,

culturally

diasporas

self-contained

existence.

So,

should

also

cross

social,

conceptual,

and

community leaders or the state set the agenda? Culture

psychological borders. The diaspora and its location

and identity are so deeply linked into our everyday lives

becomes a distinctive place built by immigration, while

that high degrees of openness are often more

including the indigenous population as an integral part

successful if they are generated from the individual or

of a diaspora space. Identity in a diaspora space or

Future of Identity


location develops as an ongoing process that can

intercultural dialogue can help with understanding

change with situations and experiences. Again,

processes within diaspora space.

Impact and Implications

Coming to terms with the impact of identity and diversity requires us to renegotiate our approach to difference, to reject its demonisation without abandoning it.

Socially, identity has become a complex and central phenomenon, and with it diversity itself has become one of the single most important issues for human development. To accommodate diversity, we have to come to terms with multiple and changing identities. What we define and describe as our constituent parts, say in Europe or in Asia, become an integral part of ourselves. It is not just that these parts coexist in communities, but their ideas, art, literature, food and lifestyles now play a central part in shaping both the communities and the individual. In best cases, the difference is evaporating; and we must adjust to this radical change. If global economic and technological events, processes

as difference, and for diverse communities to exist

and change are creating difficulties for individuals to

within their own parameters. This view would enable us

cling on to traditional notions of identity (of both type

to confront the challenge without creating all-embracing

and role), and challenging our self-confidence and our

and philosophical solutions. Assimilation, integration,

ability to really understand ourselves, they may at the

multiculturalism and the like either eradicate or reinforce

same time be redefining our potential and the

difference, whereas success (whatever that means) will

opportunities on offer for human development. Take for

require that minority identities retain some of their roots.

example, the virtual world which radically changes the notions of interface. This line of thought takes us quickly to the potential consequence of a world economic order which forms and massages identity types to deliver majority identity agendas, whether for political or economic gain. The influence of Hollywood or Bollywood, the globalisation of brands or the promotion of single-minded liberal democracy comes to mind.

The path forward should be one which frames diversity within shared values, where both majority and minority cultures need to abandon the idea that a single truth can be imposed on a plural society and where diverse personal and social identity is mobilised as a good rather than as a source of struggle. Inter- and intracultural dialogue must create the space and opportunity for reasoned disagreement and elevate co-existence in

Coming to terms with the impact of identity and diversity

the confined spaces of communities to a higher level.

requires us to renegotiate our approach to difference,

This requires us to move forwards from a place where

to reject its demonisation without abandoning it.

identities are contested and in constant rivalry.

Communities must create space for difference to exist

Future of Identity

65


Professor Richard Black Head of School of Global Studies, University of Sussex and Director, Sussex Centre for Migration Research

Future of Migration

66


The Global Challenge Immigrant integration and increasing diversity in Europe and the North are significant questions for today’s societies. However, I would like to focus on three other major challenges that are often ignored in public debate. All rest on the assumption that migration is a challenge for poor countries too: • First, most poorer people in the world are unable to

• What is the role of education in giving poor people

migrate internationally, and so are unable to share in

access to international migration opportunities, and

any benefits of international migration; and that even

can policies on migration and education be combined

where they do, the ability of their home communities

in a way that gives rise to a ‘virtuous circle’, rather

and families to benefit from this migration is

than so-called ‘brain drain’?

often limited.

• How can migrants’ remittances to poor countries -

• Second, less visible forms of migration, such as

which are currently greater in monetary terms that

internal, temporary, seasonal or child migration

international aid flows - be built upon to stimulate a

usually offer much lower benefits, yet often carry

wider process of development (whilst recognising

greater costs for poor people.

that these are private rather than public flows

• Third, migration to newer regional centres in the

of capital)?

Middle East, Central, East and SE Asia or parts of

Second, in relation to the less visible forms of migration

Africa give rise to new challenges in countries that

that poor people do participate in:

have limited infrastructure or policies to deal with immigrant rights, integration or ‘multicultural’ societies in the Western sense. All three of these challenges impact a larger number of people, to a greater degree of significance, than the ‘classic’ challenges of integration and diversity that currently hold such a strong policy focus in the global ‘North’. If we focus on the consequences of migration for poor people and poor countries, then a number of associated questions come into play that are of importance over the next decade. First, in relation to the exclusion or limited involvement of poor people from international migration, questions include: • Is there scope for relaxation of controls on migration,

Is there scope for relaxation of controls on migration, particularly where this can be demonstrated to have beneficial macro-economic effects on sending and receiving countries?

• How can such forms of migration be facilitated in such a way that they deliver tangible benefits for migrants and their families, as well as the wider population in sending and receiving areas? • Is it possible to drive down the cost to relatively poor people of sending relatively small amounts of money, or to use such remittances to release capital constraints, for example through stimulating the microfinance sector? • What forms of exploitation and abuse do internal, temporary, seasonal or child migrants face, and how can these be reduced or eliminated? Third, in relation to those who migrate to emerging regional centres in rapidly growing economies:

particularly where this can be demonstrated to have

• Are there lessons that can be learned from European

beneficial macro-economic effects on sending and

or North American responses to immigrant

receiving countries?

integration and diversity, or are entirely new models required in other parts of the world?

Future of Migration

67


What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org

Options and Possibilities The major ‘channels’ of international migration will be the same in 2020 as they are today.

Although international migration has increased over the last few decades, it has done so slowly, rising from just 2% to around 3% of the world’s population over the period from 1970 to 2005. It seems highly probable that this percentage will continue to rise slowly over the coming decade, or at least not fall, implying that by 2020 there will be more international migrants in the world than there are today. In addition, although it appears that new migration flows

However, what is much more uncertain is the way in

- in terms of origins and destinations - are emerging all

which sending and receiving societies might or might

the time, it also seems likely that the major ‘channels’

not benefit more from the migration into the future.

of international migration will be the same in 2020 as they are today, with few new major ‘poles of attraction’, and few new emerging countries of emigration beyond the possibility of mass exodus associated with economic or political collapse in a small number of countries.

indirect and therefore neither clear, nor easy to predict. Few in the UK would now dispute that migration has had a significant and positive impact on the range and quality of food in restaurants across the country. Yet there are almost certainly wider benefits ranging from

However, perhaps even more guaranteed is that there

art and culture to entrepreneurship, technology and the

will be a greater proportion of the world’s population

quality of healthcare that are difficult to measure (and

living in urban areas, both as a result of urban growth

predict) but no less real. Such benefits are not limited

(an excess of births over deaths in many of the

to the UK, or to international migration - for example

developing world’s major cities) but also as a result of

the increasing presence of rural migrants in urban

continued rural-urban migration.

This process of

centres can lead to the development of trade links

urbanisation appears to be particularly strong in Africa,

between rural and urban areas, as well as contributing

currently the least urbanised continent in the world, but

to social and cultural transformations.

where the proportion of the population living in urban areas is expected by the UN to rise from around 35% in 2000, to around 45% in 2020 and 50% by 2030.

There also appears to be a growing interest at international level in the potential benefits of migration for development, as encompassed in initiatives such as

There is of course a degree of uncertainty even in

the ‘Global Forum on Migration and Development’, a

relation to the points above. For example, the recent

major international initiative to promote good policy

global economic crisis appears to have hit some poor

practice in this field. Yet to date the translation of these

migrants particularly hard, as they often work in

initiatives into changed policy at national level is highly

manufacturing and service industries that are orientated

limited, with continued suspicion of migration and

towards global export markets that have been

mobility amongst many policy-makers.

significantly affected by the downturn. The Chinese authorities have estimated, for example, that as many as 20 million migrant workers may return from urban to rural areas as a result of the crisis. If such processes were to turn into a medium-term trend, this could have a major downward impact both on rates of urban growth, and potentially on international migration.

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For example, the ‘benefits’ of migration are often

Future of Migration


Proposed Path Forward In the field of migration, talk of ‘solutions’ is not straightforward. For example, the issues involved are complex, politically highly contentious, and research evidence is patchy. Indeed, there are few countries in which there is a mature public debate about migration, whether this is movement of poor people from rural to urban areas,

In the field of migration, talk of ‘solutions’ is not straightforward.

or immigration to new and emerging urban centres. There is some prospect that the development of new

information on safe migration - in practice, many

technologies might go some way to addressing the

migrants and would-be migrants already use mobile

problems faced by poorer people in deriving benefits

phones extensively to plan their journeys, and to make

from migration. For example, in the field of money

the necessary contacts along the way to enable them

transfer by migrants, significant advances have been

to continue towards their destinations.

made in terms of online and mobile-phone based electronic transfers, sometimes to the benefit of very poor people. The challenge is to make sure that these technologies are available to the poor, at low cost, and functioning in ways that they engender trust that the hard-earned cash of migrants is safe.

Solutions involving more rational public debate based on better research evidence are perhaps less probable, but still eminently possible, at least in some contexts. To take one example, in Bangladesh, a mature public debate is emerging on the causes and benefits of migration for the country, and successive governments,

However, in relation to all three challenges identified

democratic and military, have taken at least some

above, ‘solutions’ are most likely to arise from a more

action, based on emerging research evidence of the

mature public and policy debate, which in turn is likely

significance of migration for the country’s economy and

to rely heavily on the availability of robust research

society. This has led to some relaxation on the rules for

evidence.

Yet there are many areas in which such

travel overseas by women, with likely benefits in terms

evidence is lacking. For example, although the number

of reduced exploitation of women who were previously

of international migrants in the world is now broadly

forced to move illegally if they moved at all. A

accepted to be around 200 million people, these are

combination of research and lobbying by organisations

figures for migrant stocks rather than flows; there is in

such as the Refugee and Migratory Movements

contrast no consensus at all on how many people move

Research Unit in Dhaka has also led to the granting of

across borders on a seasonal or annual basis, let alone

citizenship to one of Bangladesh’s historic ‘migrant’

the numbers of people moving within their own

groups - Urdu-speaking Biharis who moved to the

countries. Such data is not easy to obtain either:

country during colonial times or around partition, many

borders are long, and often un-policed; few countries

of whom had been confined to camp-like settlements

have the kind of residential registration systems that

since 1971. Meanwhile, the country’s most recent

allow tracking of internal mobility, and in many societies

Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper deals in depth with

such systems would either be impractical or meet fierce

both internal and international migration, highlighting a

political resistance on civil liberties grounds.

number of areas in which policy change might enhance

Technological advances are already proceeding fast in the field of migration, particularly in terms of migrant remittances. There is the prospect too that the mobile phone in particular can become the source of trusted

the benefits of migration to the poorest sections of society. These include investigation of labour demand overseas, improved services to overseas workers, and attempts to find innovative ways to finance the initial cost of migration by the poor.

Future of Migration

69


What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org

We need compromise between polarised positions that seek to classify migration as ‘good’ or ‘bad’ or between positions that see migrants as ‘deserving’ or ‘undeserving’.

Yet the potential for global impact here is surely more

associated with managing competing interests. For

limited: out of a total of over 80 PRSPs completed in

example, if new migrants arrive in a labour market, they

nearly 60 countries since 2001, little more than a

clearly may compete for jobs with existing workers

handful deal in any depth with the issue of migration

(even if in some cases they do not, and in all cases,

based on robust evidence.

Most simply identify

they also contribute to demand which stimulates overall

migration - and especially the internal movement of the

employment). Where such competition does emerge,

poor - as a problem, based on no hard evidence at all.

it is likely to be felt most keenly by other recently-arrived

There is probably no ‘best’ path forward on migration,

migrants, often at the lower end of the labour market.

nor is a world ‘free of constraints’ realistic. Migration

In this context, I would argue for a more limited goal:

provides opportunities to some, but also poses

creating the space in which well-informed debate about

challenges for others, such that the task of dealing with

the benefits and costs of migration, and appropriate

it is always likely to be beset by the constraints

policy responses, is possible.

Impacts and Implications Ultimately, the biggest problem in finding solutions to the issues and challenges raised by migration is the polarised nature of the debate. For many people, migration is a symptom of the failure of states or societies to provide adequate living conditions so that people can stay in their home areas. In contrast, for many others, migration is a ‘right’ that is limited by the actions of governments and societies that are xenophobic or racist. Yet surely a middle ground needs to be found. For

debates, to see the phenomenon of migration in a

many migrants, movement is an essential means of

detached way, based on the best available evidence.

securing a livelihood or a better life, but migration is often also an undesired, and undesirable outcome of poverty, underdevelopment, environmental degradation

migration are not easy to predict.

or armed conflict. Indeed, for an individual migrant, the

Socially, a more open and tolerant attitude towards

desire to escape difficult conditions at home, and seize

migration (whether or not numbers of migrants actually

opportunities elsewhere can easily go hand in hand.

rise) could be at the cost of increased social tension, if

In this context, we need compromise between polarised positions that seek to classify migration as ‘good’ or ‘bad’ - or between positions that see migrants as ‘deserving’ or ‘undeserving’. That does, however, require policy-makers to rise above polarised public

70

The consequences of taking a more rounded view on

Future of Migration

that process is poorly managed or explained. But equally, it could almost certainly contribute to improved social relations, if understanding of the benefits of migration and diversity can be clearly articulated. This is as relevant a conclusion for migrant-receiving areas


in the global ‘South’, such as commercial agricultural

agricultural land for the production of biofuels); food

plantations in Côte d’Ivoire or the slums of capital cities,

insecurity is a classic cause of distress migration; both

as it is for economically-advanced societies in Europe

too much water (floods) and too little (droughts) can be

and North America.

associated

Economically, we still do not completely understand the broader consequences of migration, although there is growing evidence of the benefits of migration both in macro-economic terms, as well as for individual sending and receiving communities.

with

quite

large

migrations

and

displacements; the influence of climate change makes these particularly difficult to predict into the future; growing urbanisation contributes to one of the major challenges facing the world in the 21st century - how to deal with rising urban waste; migration throws into question established identities, and contributes to the

Finally, technologically, it seems clear that a more open

creation of new, sometimes ‘hybrid’ identities; the use

approach to migration could contribute to the

of new technology by migrants, and to control migrants,

stimulation of new technologies (such as the ‘skype’

raises significant issues to do with privacy; without

and other VOIP technologies, used intensively by many

connectivity and transport, migration doesn’t happen;

families split across countries and continents) as well as

with migration, connectivity and transport links can be

to new uses for existing technologies (such as the

stimulated and developed; migration is blamed (not

growth of money transfer systems that use mobile

entirely fairly) for decimating the health workforces of

phones and the internet).

many smaller or poorer nations; in turn, without

In terms of impacts on other issues, migration is perhaps the archetypal cross-cutting issue, and as such, it arguably impacts on all of the other topics for this initiative. Thus: in the energy world, the extraction of raw materials for energy often provides a stimulus for inward migration, but equally can lead to the displacement of populations in affected areas (e.g.

Is migration a choice? That is a key question.

migrants, Britain’s NHS and other advanced country health systems would likely grind to a halt; cities are growing in the developing world, at least in part due to migration; migrant remittances outweigh either international aid, and/or foreign direct investment, in a significant number of countries and lastly; is migration a choice? That is a key question.

through the building of dams, or conversion of

Future of Migration

71


Dave Birch Founder, Digital Money Forum and Director, Consult Hyperion

Future of Money

72


The Global Challenge Money has four basic functions, each of which can be implemented in a different way and so each of which are available for different types of change. To me it is reasonable to consider these four functions and look at the global challenges to each of them individually and from there ask about the future. Money as a unit of account is a hot topic as the US

stores of value and how will choice impact fiscal

dollar is being questioned as the denomination of the

policies? Will we have transactions between non-

world’s reserve currency. Robert Zoellick, President of

monetary stores of value? In some African countries,

the World Bank, recently said that the US must “brace

people already trade their means of exchange (the local

itself” for the USD to be replaced in that role and, for

currency) for a better store of value - mobile phone

other reasons, the UN Conference on Trade and

minutes. Why not open savings accounts in gold, or oil,

Development has also called for the USD to be

or food? There are many reasons for thinking, as

replaced with a new ‘global currency’ and not only as a

Edward de Bono once suggested, that an ‘IBM Dollar’

unit of account. The question is with what? Should we

be a better store of value than a USD.

adopt the Special Drawing Right that is used by the IMF or, if stability is a driver, should we not go back to gold as the price of oil in gold is much more stable than the price of oil in dollars.

Money as a mechanism for deferred payment is seen as a prerequisite for society to function. It must support contracts between parties that include provision for future payment. So will people and organisations

Money as an acceptable means of exchange is already

choose different payment mechanisms? Are there

undergoing change. Money is useless as a medium

enough reserve currencies to make choice a reality?

unless it is acceptable to both parties in a transaction.

Will we collapse back to bullion, or grain? If I agree to

In many countries cash is falling as a proportion of

pay you $1 million in a decade, can you continue to use

transactions. In a decade will cash still be there? Why?

conventional assumptions to value that offer?

Might we eliminate money through ‘turbo barter’? Is cash

replacement

From my perspective, as a technologist, it is the means of exchange that is most immediately subject to the pressure of rapid technological change, particularly since we are at one of those inflexion points that come along from time to time.

realistic

and

under

what

circumstances? Why now? Which technologies have come together to make this a point in time when the possibility of a change from cash to an alternative means of exchange is not only credible but also increasingly probable?

From my perspective, as a technologist, it is the means of exchange that is most immediately subject to the pressure of rapid technological change, particularly since we are at one of those inflexion points that come along from time to time. The mobile phone is about to become the most important means of exchange on a global basis and the first technology with the potential

Money as a store of value is also open to question.

to replace notes and coins as the means of exchange

How will people in the future have access to good

for the ‘average’ person.

Future of Money

73


What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org

Options and Possibilities Is digital gold the future? Will the Islamic market be a driver for electronic gold?

Over the next decade, the technology timeline is one of the most predictable components of the Future Agenda for money. As William Gibson commented in 1999, “the future is already here, it’s just unevenly distributed.” All of the technologies that will make a difference to any organisation’s business model in 2020 already exist. The right way to get ahead of the curve is not to try and imagine amazing new technologies from scratch but to simply look at how technologies are moving from the lab into the world and consider their impact in a reasonable structured way. New technologies that will be moving into the

standard may be impractical or even undesirable, the

mainstream of money, payments and banking over the

idea of a new technology monetising the store of value

next ten years include; connection technologies such as

that is gold is a different proposition. For the ordinary

speech recognition, near field communication, 4G

person to be able to decide to hold Euros, gold or

mobile networks and powered tags; disconnection

mobile phone minutes simply by choosing a different

technologies such as smart cards, voice authentication,

menu on their phone does provide practical choice.

face recognition and identity cards; and processing

However, given free choice, would people opt for

technologies such as the semantic web, contextual

dollars over precious metal?

computing, autonomous agents, printed batteries and virtual worlds. Of these, I see that it will be the disconnection technologies that will shape the emerging value network. Therefore small improvements in these technologies will have a major impact on money.

local or even personal currencies. The next generation of money may be more about so called ‘alternative currency’ rather than a return to the money of the past. Local currencies have been attracting a lot of attention

Unlike the technological view, the social and economic

and there is history in this space ranging from Local

pressures on money are much harder to determine. If

Exchange Trading Systems, frequently derided as

the average person in the street thinks that their

‘babysitting tokens’, to Time Banks and so on. In

government is printing money round the clock so that it

London another such currency has just been launched

will inevitably lose value, then they would naturally want

- the BrixtonPound. If regional, local or personal

to hold gold or some other asset they think might hold

currencies are to disrupt the financial system they need

its value against inflation. This does not mean using real

to include an alternative means of saving and lending,

gold as a means of exchange but as a store of value. I

not merely spending. A combination of P2P (peer-to-

could envisage, for example, having a gold account. I

peer) currency and P2P lending could very well deliver

would still draw cash out of the ATM - but only enough

the key elements of new kind of money. One factor

to support transactions. Gold would be the store of

nudging me towards this is the demonstrable collapse

value and, as a consequence reduce the demand for

in the trust of traditional banks: Many members of the

currency as a store of value. Is digital gold the future?

public, whether through financial calculation or outrage,

Will the Islamic market be a driver for electronic gold?

are now prepared to give alternatives a try. In the UK,

A non-interest bearing 100% gold-backed electronic

one such alternative of note is Zopa, the peer to peer

currency would be attractive to many in times of

lending exchange.

economic uncertainty. While the return to the gold

74

Perhaps people would prefer to use more regional,

Future of Money


Proposed Way Forward If we are to choose a path forward, let us make it a shared goal to make a substantial reduction in the amount of cash in circulation: Willem Buiter (Professor of European Political Economy at the London School of Economics and Political Science and former chief economist of the EBRD) is not the first economist to think about getting rid of cash. But he may be one of the first to think about getting rid of cash in a technological

The strategic impact of mobile phones in the payment space is yet to come.

era that actually makes it entirely feasible. It wasn’t feasible when Hayek was thinking about it in 1970s, or when European banks were thinking about in the 1990s, but it is entirely feasible in the 2010s. Why? Well, there are some key technological developments that make Willem’s vision more than science fiction: in fact, some might say, make it more likely than not. These developments mean that we can overcome the main barriers to cashlessness - POS (Point of Sale) density and anonymity - in ways that can deliver more functionality than Willem might expect. To make something “cash like” then you have to be able

The second objection is that losing the anonymity of

to use it pretty much everywhere (you need a high POS

cash would change the relationship between citizen and

density) and you need to be able to make small

state (and bank) in an undesirable way. I used to think

transactions in private, without being tracked, traced

that this was true, but now I’m not so sure. Thinking

and monitored. There are two ways in which the

about anonymity again, my experience back in the old

technological developments of the last two decades

days was that, for different reasons, neither the

have addressed these key objections and have put us

consumers, nor the banks, nor the retailers, nor anyone

in a position to be able to take Willem’s ideas and

else actually valued anonymity at all. So, if you put it in

implement them.

a tick-box, some people will tick it, but that’s because

The first is the mobile phone. We are already seeing the launch of mobile phones that can replace payment

they haven’t really thought about it. Once they had thought about it, their interest in anonymity plummeted.

cards (there are 40 million of them in Japan already) and provide prepaid “e-money” accounts (M-PESA in Kenya, provided by mobile operators Vodafone and Safaricom, has over six million users already). But the strategic impact of mobile phones in the payment space is yet to come. Yes, mobile phones can be payment cards and that’s great. But mobile phones can also be payment terminals. Or to put it another way, you can use a chip and PIN card to pay, but you can use a mobile phone to both pay and get paid. Since I live in a country where, essentially, everyone has a mobile phone this means that it is absolutely feasible to eliminate cash altogether. In this coming world, if I want to pay you a pound, I will do it by text message or mobile Internet and you will know immediately that you have the cash.

Future of Money

75


What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org

Impacts and Implications My central prediction for the decade is that the mobile phone will be used to transact non-fiat currencies.

So, my central prediction for the decade is that the mobile phone will be used to transact non-fiat currencies. Not much of a prediction perhaps because it is already happening. But the impact will be truly transformational and will, I would argue, primarily benefit the poor. If the central problem is the cost of transactions for

or fraud) would surely outweigh any marginal

poor people, and the central solution is to use mobile

convenience offered to drug dealers. And if an

phones to make transactions (including non-fiat

international terrorist were to go round Post Offices

currency transactions) then the key compromise is

buying a pre-paid card in each one and then sending

straightforward to set out: We must encourage

€100,000 worth of cards to their uncle up the Khyber

easy-entry competition for low-value, inter-personal

Pass, not only would it engender significant effort but

transactions and allow not only mobile operators but

it would also cost them a lot more than sending €500

other newcomers to deliver a service.

notes (which the Royal Mail might well lose anyway).

Why not take the €500 note as an example? Any

More realistic limits for the Know Your Customer (KYC)

prepaid instrument with a maximum daily transfer of

and Anti Money Laundering (AML) protocols and

€500 should be regarded as cash and regulated

increasing competition in the provision of mobile

globally much as the FSA regulates Electronic Money

payment services would bring (literally) hundreds of

Issuers (ELMIs) in the U.K. - but with higher limits on

millions of people into the financial system. This would

both balances and annual transfers. In Europe, there

deliver a significant net welfare increase and make a

will be an additional chapter in the Payment Services

huge difference to the daily lives of some of the

Directive (PSD) to create a framework for electronic

poorest people.

money institutions (alongside the frameworks for credit institutions and payment institutions). So perhaps this could form the basis of reciprocal international agreement. In other words, anyone should be able to buy a pre-paid card with €500 loaded on to it and then do what they like with it; use it on eBay or in Marks & Spencer; send it to a grandson at University or back to the old country as a remittance.

76

So, if we are to try and choose a path forward, let us make it a shared goal to make a substantial reduction in the amount of cash in circulation by adopting regulatory compromise to open up the space for solutions and encouraging new thinking, particularly around mobile phones, to deliver those solutions. In fact, we might make the goal the substantial eradication of cash, as previously suggested.

Think about it - the immediate benefit to the poor (who

Controversial? Perhaps, but possible, plausible and

lose some 20% of their annual remittances to charges

potentially probable!

Future of Money


If we are to try and choose a path forward, let us make it a shared goal to make a substantial reduction in the amount of cash in circulation

77


Mark Philips Interior Design Manager, Jaguar Cars

Future of Transport

78


The Global Challenge We live in a world at the point of significant change: Around half of us recognise that we need to travel less, just at the same time as the other half want to travel more. There is little doubt that, without a major technology shift, those in the developed, world who are used to high levels of personal mobility, cannot all continue to behave in the same way as they have done in the past. While in the fast-growing emerging economies, with burgeoning middle classes, many see the desire for individual car ownership as a credible and realistic aim. We are at a tipping point between the two seemingly opposing drivers of sustainability and aspiration. Our

Of all nations, the US faces many of the greatest obstacles but it also could open the doors to new solutions.

primary challenge is in balancing these two. Much large scale transport change takes place over 20

at the same time proactively regulating for behaviour

years rather than ten so, given these timescales, in the

changing policies such as congestion charging, road

next decade we face three major issues; providing

pricing and speed control. This can be achieved a

mass mobility to the growing global community in a

much through designing transport that people want

sustainable manner; changing the behaviour and

to be part of as by regulation.

actions of many in the developed world; and making the right choices to set the scene for a practical a lowcarbon, global transport system after 2020.

• In terms of future choices for the post 2020 world, we already know the decisions that need to be made: Whether to being electric, hydrogen or bio-fuel

• There are few who would say that mobility in the likes

powered, personal transport has to switch from fossil

of India and China should be restricted or who would

fuels and this has to happen sooner rather than later;

deny citizens in such countries the same freedom of

low CO2 options for aviation and shipping have to be

movement that the US and Europe have enjoyed.

found; and an accelerated rollout of integrated mass

However most would agree that the route taken in

transit systems has to occur. But, again, this has to

the 20th century cannot be followed in the 21st.

be achieved in a manner that attracts consumers.

Implementing the policies and making the large scale investments required to provide sustainable transport infrastructures in every country involve both bold decisions and deep pockets, but, without a major shift in the next couple of years, the long term consequences on, for example, carbon emissions will be dire. Major transport solutions need to be green, affordable and desirable.

Of all nations, the US faces many of the greatest obstacles but it also could open the doors to new solutions. The American transportation system has been under-funded and is difficult and costly to maintain: According to the American Society of Civil Engineers it will cost $1.6 trillion to repair critical infrastructure, never mind make the investments to accommodate future demands. While this might sound like gloom, it

• In terms of the US and European lifestyles that

should be noted that California, as America’s most

provide the template for others to follow, we must

influential state, raises its ambitions, so they become

make visible and significant steps and soon. This is

the benchmark for the US - and this has traditionally

not just about shifting away from the SUV, three car

had a catalytic effect on global standards. Over the next

household culture often characterised in the media,

decade, proactive local policies from Sacramento may

but involves significant changes beyond switching to

well continue to reach globally. Although other nations

smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles. The developed

are thinking well ahead of the US in transport policy,

world, and the US in particular, must embrace public

we should not ignore the significant influence that key

transport options both within and between cities, and

Federal and State regulations have around the world.

Future of Transport

79


What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org

Options and Possibilities Although the aviation industry attracts lots of attention, the real options for change available in the next decade are relatively limited.

In each area of the transport sector, the choices available to us between now and 2020 vary considerably. Some have little freedom to change and others have the potential for major shifts. Although the aviation industry attracts lots of attention,

the time to change the fleet, the likelihood of mass

the real options for change available in the next decade

impact in the next decade is limited. Given continuing

are relatively limited: Rising demand from both low-

economic globalisation, demand for more not less

cost and premium passengers keen to fly shows little

shipping between sources of raw materials, production

sign of abating, airfreight traffic is forecast to double in

centres and primary markets, will steadily increase.

the next ten years and both Boeing and Airbus have healthy future order books. Even if reduced travel occurs in European and US markets, given the competition between the three main alliances and the growth in Asian passenger and freight miles, a net global increase by 2020 is highly probable. Moreover, as the average plane is in service for around 30 years, the cycle time to change the fleet means that more fuel efficient planes, such as the Airbus 380 and the Boeing Dreamliner, will take a good while to have significant impact. Other than the possible introduction of bio-fuels into the aviation fuel mix, no major technological change will have impact in the next decade: While governments and media like to talk up the contribution of aviation to global warming, it is only

and taxi are all areas of government and industry focus: For example, the French government has recently announced a ₏20bn investment in the construction of the worlds’ largest automated rapid transit line circling Paris, scheduled for completion by 2020. Delhi has gained significant praise for switching its taxi fleet to LPG and Dubai is now promoting its newly opened urban transit system. As cities around the world seek to replicate the models of modern mobility efficiency such as the integrated urban transport systems found in Munich

and

Vienna,

we

can

expect

further

announcements of similar investments in the cities which can afford it.

responsible for 2% of carbon emissions and has no

Turning to inter-urban transport, there is little doubt that

credible alternative energy platform available in the

China is the now pacesetter for change. Recognising

medium term. As more people desire to fly, despite the

both the challenge and the benefit in increasing the

cost, for many in the sector, the next ten years will be

speed of travel across the country, China is investing

more an opportunity for improved efficiency of the

over $1 trillion in expanding its rail network to

overall system while continuing to compete for

120,000km by 2020 - the second largest public works

customers on the experience.

program in history. Like Japan, South Korea, France,

The shipping industry is however a focus for potential change. Not only does it contribute more than 5% of global CO2 emissions, but inefficiency has been built into the system. Over the next few years we can therefore expect a convergence of existing GPS, loading and navigation technologies to enable more efficient routing and speed of transit of the world’s merchant fleet. However, although retrofit technologies such as high tech sails are much hyped, again, given

80

Urban public transport systems covering bus, rail, tram

Future of Transport

Spain and Germany before, China is reshaping its landscape around train services by investing in a mix of both very high speed rail (350kph) and high speed rail (125-150kph) that will be the global benchmark for mass transit systems: Cargo transport and passenger transport is being separated, double track artery lines are being electrified and transport hubs are been built in 196 cities. The decisions have already been made and the ambition will be implemented. However, other


countries, yet to take such bold steps forward, may not

personal mobility. Although ten years is barely two design

be able to deliver material change by 2020.

cycles in the automotive sector, with the right support

Given the above, by 2020, I see that further significant change can only really be achieved in the area of

and leadership, we have the opportunity to change the

I see that luxury market buyers increasingly want ‘better not more’.

game in terms of both sustainability and aspiration.

Proposed Way Forward Over the next decade, some predict that upwards of an extra 300 million people will gain access to their own cars. By contrast in the whole of the past century Ford only produced 90 million vehicles. Some consumers will seek to make choices based on sustainability issues but most will continue to aspire to have the best products they can. While the two are in no way independent, as more and more manufacturers join the likes of Renault and Toyota in announcing all new electric and hybrid ranges for launch in 2012, we, as individuals, will be attracted to rent, buy or lease the vehicles that not only meet our needs but also say something special: Because it creates the aspiration by which many other areas judge progress, the luxury market in which Jaguar plays a key role will continue to be a primary source of influence on consumer choice across the sector. I see that luxury market buyers increasingly want ‘better

- this may not be a short term fad. In other markets, we

not more’. I believe that this trend will increase as people

are leaving the era of buying disposable IKEA-esque

seek to buy items of higher quality, greater intellectual

goods and seeking items that offer longevity and quality

depth and perceived value. We will move away from the

- a future heirloom maybe? This is, in some ways, a

“Bling Bling” culture that has been with us for the last

return to the values of previous generations.

eight years. The decline of the SUV market is already heralding a shift in the way car companies as such are positioning themselves to express a more environmentally responsible message over just the car’s performance: The new luxury 5 door vehicles are not SUVs but “fast backs” like the BMW 5 Series Gran Turismo, Audi Sportback and Lexus LF-Ch Hybrid

An example from outside the transport sector that supports this is the Slow Food movement which is now coming of age. Originally established in 1989 as a reaction to the growth of fast food, Slow Food focuses more on enjoyment, quality and the effect upon others - an interesting parallel to the use of transport.

concepts which will have as much design influence in

Although for many, perhaps the greatest statement of

the US market as they do in Europe and Japan.

one’s personal freedom and, ultimately, individuality is

Luxury goods buyers, I believe, will want to have items that are visually more discreet: At the height of the credit crunch, shoppers on New York’s 5th Avenue were disguising their designer label purchases in brown bags

still the car. For others their buying tastes are changing and the consumers’ definition of status and how a car features in their lives is shifting: A recent survey of 1824 year olds of their top five most valued possessions

Future of Transport

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What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org

We can clearly see the trajectory of more efficient vehicles, many of which may be smaller that today’s.

showed cars to be very low or non existent as a priority

between the East and West, we can expect both new

for this influential community. Members of this group

global marques to emerge as well as new market

will one day be influencing how car companies cater for

niches that encourage more vehicles to be more clearly

their needs, tastes and aspirations.

Asian in values. The traditional cyclical product needs of

I believe, society will react to the presentation of a number of influences in car design - from increased globalisation and greater international collaboration between manufacturers, government policy and climate

car markets: I will be interested to see how the success and wealth growth in such countries as Russia and India will impact the tastes and trends in the west.

change regulation through to the shift in the balance of

While we can clearly see the trajectory of more efficient

wealth and the cultural influence of growing eastern

vehicles, many of which may be smaller that today’s,

markets. As globalisation continues, national identity

we can also see the role of luxury setting the ambition

and ultimate individuality will increase as a key factor in

and attracting consumers across all platforms: Although

design differentiation. Well recognised in such brands

traditionally associated with large four door vehicles, it

as Citroen which bring French values to the fore, may

will be interesting to see if any luxury marques will also

well be joined by new brands reflecting Chinese and

migrate to smaller platforms.

Indian values. Indeed, as the balance of wealth changes

82

the US will be increasingly challenged by new luxury

Future of Transport


Impacts and Implications I see multiple implications going forward. Foremost, driven by the inevitable rise in personal mobility, it is clear that we will see more small cars. These will not only be new, mass access, low-cost vehicles such as Tata’s Nano, but could also include some luxury marques: Aston Martin are reported to be currently developing a concept based on the Toyota IQ ‘commuter car’ named Cygnet. However, with advancing fuel and alternative power technology I am confident that luxury cars will still be able to offer a travel experience to the same standards as currently enjoyed by consumers - except that this will increasingly need to be “guilt free”. This is a challenge that car manufacturers must overcome in order to continue to offer true luxury which has always been a measure of spaciousness, refinement and exclusivity. For me, it will be interesting to see if any luxury

Design trends tend to last between 5 and 10 years; for designers, the ends of these trends cycles provide exciting opportunities for change.

car companies attempt to apply their brand values to the urban commuter segment and similar historically “no-go” segments. If they do, will they be able to do so successfully with integrity and authenticity? With an aging population and the affordability of

development of these systems. After all, the car is

personal transport as certain mega trends, I can see a

possibly the most powerful expression of freedom and

huge increase in the introduction of new traffic control

for a consumer product it offers the greatest possible

systems including congestion charging and even a

level of user interaction whilst delivering great personal

pricing mechanism based upon the size of your vehicle

convenience and enjoyment. Design trends tend to last

as well as the power of your car. Although the concept

between 5 and 10 years; for designers, the ends of

of intelligent highways has been much discussed over

these trends cycles provide exciting opportunities for

the years, the reality has taken a long time to become

change as much as they provide a challenge for

main-stream. With more embedded intelligence such

strategists to guide investments to capitalise on

as collision avoidance already available in some high

the opportunities.

end cars, over the next decade we can see smart mobility coming into place: Through combinations of the GPS and mobile tracking of vehicles that are in some markets today together with the need for wireless traffic management systems in overcrowded megacities, smart cars and smart networks will converge to deliver the first global phase of smart mobility. I believe that the consumer’s reaction to the effect on their freedom in such a world could prove pivotal to the

I believe that the next few years will be the time when new products are launched that successfully balances sustainability and aspiration. Whether in small urban commuter vehicles or more efficient larger cars, consumer choice will continue to play a major role: Matching together sustainability and aspiration provides equal opportunity across the whole of the transport system.

Future of Transport

83


Professor Ian Williams Director of Education and Deputy Head of the School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton

Future of Waste

84


The Global Challenge Global waste production is predicted by some to double over the next twenty years. Much of this will be due to increased urbanisation and greater waste generation per capita as emerging economies grow. While some regions are aiming at creating zero waste ecosystems, others are yet to truly recognise the scale of the challenge we face. Waste results in many problems. It smells bad, looks

Enabling the appropriate treatment of hazardous

bad and attracts vermin; it releases harmful chemicals

wastes (including toxic, radioactive, clinical and

into the soil and water when dumped and into the air

biohazard materials), particularly close to or in densely

when burned; around 4% of our GHG emissions are

populated, urban areas is a major issue. In particular,

currently from waste decomposition; and no one has

we will need to address the unethical shipping of

really yet come up with a solution for how to dispose of

hazardous wastes to developing countries and the

some of the most toxic nuclear and industrial waste in

subsequent adverse health effects suffered by those

a sustainable manner.

who handle and treat these wastes.

On average in Europe, each of us produces over 500kg

As economic growth has traditionally led to more waste,

of domestic waste each year. On top of this we

to prevent the future doubling in global waste predicted

generate huge quantities of construction debris,

by some, we need to understand what are the

industrial effluent, mine tailings, sewage residue and

projected increases in waste volumes in emerging

agricultural waste. Rich countries spend some $120

nations? What will be the associated attitudes towards

billion a year disposing of their municipal waste alone

waste management and what infrastructure and service

and another $150 billion on industrial waste.

provision needs to be put in place and where? We must

In the next decade, can we develop a practical and achievable global strategy for sustainable resource use? Making waste prevention the norm in a global society dominated by consumerism will demand the creation of

devise sustainable and practical approaches to deal with the (inevitable) increasing volumes of waste from ‘emerging nations’, their attitudes towards and ability to manage their waste responsibly.

a zero waste society - but can we actually achieve zero

Last, but certainly not least, we need to change all

landfill and move towards this goal? It will mean

individual behaviours and attitudes and get consumers

simultaneously

developing

the

Global waste production is predicted by some to double over the next twenty years. Much of this will be due to increased urbanisation and greater waste generation per capita as emerging economies grow.

appropriate

and organisations to buy products made from recycled

infrastructure, service provision and approaches to

materials and/or sustainable sources: Easier in some

facilitate behaviour change in multiple particular

countries than in others.

environments. It will also require us to genuinely decouple economic growth and waste generation on a global scale.

Future of Waste

85


What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org

Options and Possibilities We have the options of accelerating the development of Zero Waste concepts, creating better sustainable technologies, and facilitating better geographical spread of these technologies, but this needs investment.

Over the next decade, the increasing global population and the increasing economic growth of many emerging nations will create more waste. As well as putting a huge strain on resources such as fresh water and energy, another billion or so people added to the planet in the next ten years will certainly demand more and so create more waste. This will include more food and energy waste; more household waste; increased electronic wastes facilitated by lower prices, new products and more choice; and more hazardous waste from industry generally and an increase in nuclear energy specifically. To try and counteract this we will see less packaging waste due to regulation and more biodegradable packaging; more pressure to reduce the environmental impacts from waste; increased complexity in the waste stream and an increase in concerns regarding the health effects of waste treatment. These are all visible trends today that will continue going forward. What is less certain are a number of political,

We have the options of accelerating the development of

environmental, global economic and technological

Zero Waste concepts, creating better sustainable

factors. Political motivation and resource policy directions

technologies, and facilitating better geographical

are very unpredictable, especially after a downturn where

spread of these technologies, but this needs

the economics of waste recycling have become less

investment. This is investment in appropriate

viable than before. In addition, we don’t yet understand

infrastructures, service provision and new approaches

the impacts that global warming will have on

to

governmental decisions that impact waste management

environments. We also have the option of creating new

- what is the connection between waste generation /

accredited global standards for management, treatment

treatment and climate change? Can some waste

and disposal of waste, but this needs cooperation

materials be used to generate sustainable energy in

between companies and countries. There are many

order to address future energy needs? The impact and

things we could do to fundamentally change direction

implications of increased resource use on society, the

and create less waste, but some question what we will

economy and the environment are likely to be global and

actually do.

significant but the details are not yet fully clear. Although some point to examples such as Switzerland where there are currently high levels of waste recycling occurring due to local conditions, it is not certain that this will be sustained. At the same time, whether, or to what extent, waste quantities continue to rise in the developed world is not certain. Also, we don’t yet know how rapid will be the uptake of sustainable and smart technologies, such as nano-materials, which will in theory result in less waste. Despite an increase in hazard, high use of rare metals in IT hardware such as phones and PCs will increase but waste quantities may reduce.

86

Future of Waste

facilitate

behaviour

change

in

particular


Proposed Way Forward By 2020, I believe that we can make a significant impact on the waste problem by taking some clear steps. And I would aim high: we need major changes. First off is the development of practical integrated

incentives and / or legislation. But can we develop

sustainable waste management solutions that are

mass low cost sustainable technologies on a global

clearly aimed at the creation of a zero waste society.

scale? This will require substantial knowledge transfer.

This will mean the simultaneous development of the

Better technologies offer money-making opportunities

infrastructure, service provision and behavior change to

and, in themselves, require less change to current

enable the core elements to be aligned. This won’t be

practice than the infrastructure and behavior pathway.

politically attractive but will be necessary. Within all

However, although zero waste strategies will be a

environments we need to develop truly sustainable

popular concept, many in business and industry will

waste practices, policies and strategies. This will mean

resist it just as unleaded petrol was initially rejected.

moving waste management in line with a reduced

Therefore the technology route should not be backed in

carbon economy; developing appropriate and low

isolation - we need the technologies and the integrated

environmental impact collection systems for small re-

waste management solutions together.

useable/recyclable items (WEEE); and adherence to approaches that satisfy regional self-sufficiency, proximity principle, sustainability appraisals, etc. This includes sustainable management of minerals and aggregates; prevention of food waste, and facilitating resource recovery from wastes, as well as addressing imminent resource depletion of key materials such as the rare metals used in IT hardware.

While these are the two main issues, there are also a number of additional actions that will have a quick, short-term enforcement,

impact.

These

education

and

include

increased

awareness

for

organisations and businesses in how to manage their waste, especially from those not conflicted by commercial gain; expansion of alternate weekly collection systems in developed countries (e.g.

Second is the development of mass low-cost

recyclables weekly, residuals fortnightly); further

sustainable technologies for waste treatment /

legislation and / or economic disincentives on excessive

transformation and pollution prevention on a global

packaging; and higher involvement of both big business

scale. We need to develop technologies and systems

and the third sector in re-use and recycling. We also

for the global prevention of pollution from the handling

need to accelerate the willingness of individuals and

and treatment of wastes, especially waste waters and

organizations to buy products made from recycled

industrial effluents. This will require concepts such as

materials and / or sustainable sources.

green

chemistry

and

engineering

Can we develop mass low cost sustainable technologies on a global scale?

to

become

mainstream rather than niche using appropriate

Future of Waste

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What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org

Impacts and Implications The pace at which the rich world churns out rubbish has been slowing.

There will be several direct consequences from seeking a credible move towards the zero waste society: • Economically, increased costs are inevitable:

being produced and were concentrating on better use.

Changes in feedstock for manufacturing, for

But lately that assumption has been challenged. For

example, will probably increase costs initially until the

one thing, the pace at which the rich world churns out

market adjusts and the use of recycled materials

rubbish has been slowing. Between 1980 and 2000

becomes the norm. However given the long-term

the amount of waste produced by the OECD countries

impacts of not taking this route, most forward

increased by an average of 2.5% a year. Between

thinking organisations should see the benefit and the

2000 and 2005 the average growth rate slowed to

return that will be achieved on the necessary

0.9%. That was just ahead of the rate of population

investments.

growth, but well behind the rate of economic growth.

• Socially, both to enable a zero waste pathway and as a result of it, there will be significantly greater public awareness / knowledge of both waste management

decoupling of municipal waste generation from economic growth”

issues and also of the adverse health / environmental

Reducing the amount of waste being produced makes

consequences of poor environmental management.

a great deal of sense. Some are trying to persuade

However without a fundamental, behaviour change

consumers to throw away less. One tactic is to make

towards a more environmentally sustainable way of

households pay by volume for the rubbish they

life, any economic investments stand less chance of

generate, rather than through a flat fee or through local

having impact.

taxes. Many places in Europe, America and Asia have

• Technologically, we will see an increased use of

88

The OECD describes this as “a rather strong relative

adopted “pay-as-you-throw” schemes.

“smart products” to track, monitor and manage

Whether through such changes in consumer

waste, as well as new nanotechnologies and low

behaviour, increased financial investment or the

carbon technologies that create less waste.

development of new technology and policy, the world

Increased investment, to ensure all that waste

is in desperate need of a shift towards the zero waste

streams can be processed, will also eventually drive

society. Such a shift will not only benefit us by

a move towards mass low cost sustainable

addressing the growing waste challenge, but will also

technologies.

have a positive impact on how we potentially generate

Until recently most people in the waste industry had

our energy, how we grow and use our food and how

assumed that it was impossible to reduce the amount

we manage our water supplies.

Future of Waste


The world is in desperate need of a shift towards the zero waste society.

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Professor Stewart Burn Stream Leader of Infrastructure Technologies, CSIRO

Future of Water

90


The Global Challenge Unlike most of the resources we consume such as oil, rice and steel, there is no alternative for water - it is the only natural resource with no substitute. Today over 6 billion people share the same volume of water that 1.6 billion did a hundred years ago. Although two thirds of the earth’s surface is water, only 3% per cent of this is fresh water and, if you deduct the majority share that is locked up in the polar ice-caps and other glaciers, we only actually have access to around 0.5%. Water consumption varies enormously across countries

consumer products) that have been produced with the

and regions and is similar to patterns in energy

use of water from a local source. As global trade

consumption. No surprise then that water and energy

increases, this will result in further reduction in water

share some of the same drivers and challenges. For

availability especially in countries like China, where

example, water follows a similar trajectory as energy in

water consumption is already on the rise and sources of

that its use increases relative to GDP growth. Today,

water are on the decline. This challenge is compounded

average annual water withdrawals for urban and

when you recognise that population growth is primarily

agricultural use in the US are running at around 1.7m

occurring in regions where water usage per capita is

litres per person: In China the numbers are less that a

still relatively low and so has the potential to increase

third of this. As the populations and GDP of the

dramatically. This trend of increased water consumption

emerging economies continue to grow, overall demand

is adding major strains in key areas of the planet over

for freshwater will exceed supply by more than 50% by

the next decade. While today much of India, China, the

2025 and so the number of people living in water

Middle East, Australia, Africa, the US and southern

stressed regions will increase. Without decisive action

Europe are already water stressed, by 2020 significant

the imbalance between availability and demand will

areas of Northern Europe and South America will be

continue to escalate.

added to the list.

In a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario where average

One major concern for the UN is how the increasing

households’ income increases, in many countries, so

scarcity of water will play out at national levels. Although

does their direct domestic water consumption. In others

the likes of Singapore and Australia have well-

experiencing water shortages, demand management

developed National Water Strategies, other countries

has controlled this growth. Equally important is the

are recognising the higher chances of conflict as

indirect consequence of a changing lifestyle: As diets in

different economies seek to secure resources. Some

developing countries change from rice to meat so the

believe that in the future we will again fight wars over

demand for water rises as it takes more water to

water not oil, and if you look carefully at what is going

produce meat than it does to grow rice. Another indirect

on in Israel, Egypt and areas of the Indochinese

impact relates to ‘virtual water flows’. These are a result

borders, the reality of this is all to evident.

Today over 6bn people share the same volume of water that 1.6bn did a hundred years ago.

of exporting goods (both agricultural as well as

Future of Water

91


What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org

Options and Possibilities Sanitation is considered a key global issue and is a millennium goal in itself, but one in danger of not being achieved if new solutions for sustainable water supply are not available.

Options for countries with weak economies and poor access to resources are limited and so require different strategies going forward. Access to water here is a primary health need: Sanitation is considered a key global issue and is a millennium goal in itself, but one in danger of not being achieved if new solutions for sustainable water supply are not available. This is not just a problem in places like Africa but in Eastern Europe as well. Living in Australia, I see that a country at the forefront

managed. In a few countries such as the UAE and

of managing and responding to water scarcity is facing

Singapore where desalination is economically or

a number of major urban water systems challenges: A

politically viable, we are starting to see alternative

projected 40 percent population growth over the next

technical solutions for freshwater supply, but the mass

quarter century will increase demand for water well

global application of new breakthroughs is more than

beyond the capacity of existing supplies. This as well as

20 years away.

the increase wastewater flows and storm-water runoff will present a significant number of urban water problems that will need scientific solutions. The current urban infrastructure valued in excess of $94 billion was mainly constructed during the 1960s and faces significant deterioration. Management of the annual revenue of $9 billion and capital investment of $4.5 billion provides significant opportunities for major

increase the cost of energy, compounding the economic and emissions risks associated with the adoption of energy-intensive manufactured water supplies and wastewater treatment. This driver will also present opportunities for recovery of water, energy and nutrients from urban water systems.

financial savings from small increments in efficiency.

In addition we must recognize the impact of extreme

These issues are not unique to Australia and either

events on the complete water cycle, including water

already are, or soon will be, relevant in other regions

availability, use, resilience, infrastructure performance,

across the world.

etc. Potential changes in climate variability will further

Although most of the challenges we face will be common across various regions, they will vary at a country level, as will the solutions to address them. We therefore need to understand the total water cycle system that will account for alternative water and land management options, including addressing changes to flow, nutrient and sediment regimes; energy use; greenhouse gas emissions; and the impacts on rivers, aquifers and estuaries. Recent droughts, such as the one in Australia, highlight the vulnerability of existing urban water supply systems. Alternative investment in desalination and other potable and non-potable water supplies and their linkages into regional water grids may potentially cause issues with respect to water quality and public health if not properly

92

Global drivers to reduce the carbon footprint will

Future of Water

compound these issues by causing increased uncertainty in supply and engineering issues associated with bushfires, flooding and infrastructure failure. Whether or not you believe the different projections of how temperature rises will impact in different parts of the world, the high probability of more variable weather conditions and hence water availability will certainly add more complexity. With the advent of new water strategies, water quality and treatment will be more critical to maintain our lifestyle. New risks are emerging (e.g. endocrine disrupting chemicals, N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA)) that need solutions to be developed to ensure the purity of our potable water supplies. With an ageing asset base in many countries, the integration of new supplies from alternative sources and demand management


strategies requires us to manage changing flows and

concentrations in sewer systems and treatment plants

demand profiles in water and wastewater networks.

will require the development of new management

Blended water sources will influence water quality in

strategies. The effects of these changes on exiting

water distribution networks, and higher contaminant

assets are largely unknown at present.

We need to embrace the concept of the ‘water sensitive city’.

Proposed way forward For the majority of us, the options focused on managing our existing water supply are the only ones really on the table for the next decade. Breakthroughs in desalination and point of use purification are still some way off. Developments in membrane technology that will realize significant changes are pushing in many different directions, for example companies such as “Aquaporin” are seeking to leverage learning from white biotech principles: Membranes mimicking specific natural processes could be one breakthrough that makes desalination viable across more geographies than is the case today. In addition, developments in membrane distillation could significantly reduce the energy costs associated with desalination. However, these developments are many years away. Therefore, considering the challenges ahead, three key elements need to be viewed together if we are to address them successfully: Sensible policies; (technology) solutions; and lifestyle/behavior changes. Emerging thinking about the evolution of large cities demands the revisiting of the fundamental role of water system design in sustainable city development. We need to embrace the concept of the ‘water sensitive city’. In this context, the development of suitable decisionmaking methods, as well as planning and management processes, should be based on sustainability concepts. This drive for improved water management has led companies such as GE and Siemens as well as newcomers like IBM to focus on innovating new businesses around water. Similar to ‘clean energy’ startups in the past decade, water is now also attracting the attention of investors and entrepreneurs from other

traditional local government view. Maximizing recycling of water from local wastewater and storm-water sources in the context of a water sensitive city will require the development of efficient and reliable treatment options for environmental protection and public health. In addition we need options for energy and nutrient recovery during water and wastewater treatment, thus transferring waste streams from a disposal problem to a source of wealth. Examples of this can be found in the renewed interest in harvesting algae for the production of bio-fuels and in the development of microbial fuel cells: Clean water meets clean energy.

areas to fund and found new companies. It is expected

Furthermore, containing leakage rates to acceptable

that the penetration of the “business world” in to water

levels requires continual ‘active’ leakage detection that

management will add a different perspective to how

is expensive, labour intensive and slow to deliver: The

water services are provided compared with the

ability to automate leakage detection could provide a

Future of Water

93


What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org

Changes in behaviour will require measuring our water consumption before we can manage it.

step change in water loss control. Australia already uses

It is also essential that we develop real-time

close to world’s best practice in minimizing leakage from

management, operational and control systems which will

distribution networks and utilities in the UK, France and

greatly manage risk and increase public confidence in

the US are now focused on similar aims. The gains to

the increasingly complex water networks. This will

be achieved are clear - the UK looses about 3.3bn litres

require the understanding of system condition and

of clean water every day.

performance,

In a scenario of ageing infrastructure and growing cities, we need to develop new strategies for water, wastewater

detection

of

impending

system

deterioration and failure via networked sensors, and accurate prediction and detection of significant ‘events’.

and storm-water systems. These must accommodate

Lastly, planning is needed for the integration of new

the inevitable population growth and increase resilience

water sources and treatment processes into existing

to climate change. At the same time, they should provide

water supply and wastewater networks. In the context of

sufficient flexibility to adopt a mix of centralized and

an ageing asset base, we also require the development

decentralized components where most appropriate to

of optimal management techniques for new water

meet both environmental and stakeholders’ needs.

supply grids.

Impacts and Implications The water debate has accelerated over the past 18 months and is now considered by several governments as the single greatest challenge we face. Since the issue is so intertwined with many other topics (energy, food, health), in fact with pretty much anything we do, whether in policy, technology implementation or change in life-style, it will have an impact on not only our lives, but the lives of generations to come. We must therefore “get it right”. In urban environments water scarcity might force us to

Agriculture accounts for most of our water

reconsider certain lifestyles and at the same time open

consumption and, with developments in biotechnology,

up opportunities for innovation in areas such as water

by 2020 new crops will be introduced that are more

capture, treatment, conservation and efficiency.

efficient in their water use as will new ways to grow

Changes in behavior will require measuring our water

them. Concepts including vertical farming might find

consumption before we can manage it and solutions

their way into, or close to, urban environments if there

such as smart metering will find their way into our

is a real benefit both in terms of water recycling and

homes. The questions are at what level and how

lower energy consumption.

granular will we require this to happen and who will manage the change?

94

Future of Water


Finally, businesses will soon learn more about

water footprints supported by clear and simple

embedded energy and have a more mature

messages to the public. Governments will undoubtedly

understanding of how to measure this in their products.

play a role in this, and may follow Australia’s and other

Water will likely follow the same path - but this might be

countries’ lead in developing national water strategies

introduced faster as a result of the prior experience with

as well as developing capabilities to secure a

CO2. Success depends on common ways to measure

sustainable water supply that meets demand.

Future of Water

Governments may follow Australia’s and other countries’ lead in developing national water strategies.

95


Chris Meyer CEO, Monitor Networks

Future of Work

96


The Global Challenge Not since the Industrial Revolution, when work migrated from fields to factories, from villages to company towns and cities, and from families to corporations, have the context, form, and nature of work been in such flux. Organizations now question how to make the best use of their people resource and educational institutions seek to predict what skills will be required for the next generation. Individuals increasingly think in terms of work not balanced with other priorities, but integrated into their lives. I see that the future of work is influenced by four unstoppable trends each of which will have significant impact. Taken collectively they suggest the need for a fundamental rethinking of management, the way we work and what we work on: Geographic and Economic Dislocation: Networks

Education: Life spans and careers continue to grow

have reduced or eliminated barriers to entry to national

longer as the half-life of knowledge continues to shrink.

labor markets for many categories of work. This is

A decreasing proportion of value will be added by

particularly evident in areas such as IT (through

repetitive work: physical machines will become more

outsourcing), engineering (e.g. Innocentive tapping

self-aware and adaptive, requiring less supervision;

global talent pools), and medicine (e.g. tele-radiology).

more importantly, information technology will eliminate

As off-shoring increases, it puts pressure on wages

services and middle management labor. Since the

in the rich countries, and skills rise in nations with

growth in ‘value added’ will be through innovation and

lower per capita income. And, as income increases in

creation, a major challenge will be to ensure that

emerging markets such as India, China, and Brazil,

education (both early and continuing) will support the

growth in demand for skilled services will occur

development of a “creative class” of all ages, in the

disproportionately outside the developed world.

same the way that public high school taught people to

Together, these two effects lead to income stagnation

work in large enterprises organized around the division

in the rich countries and rapid wage and employment

of labor. Since the educational institutions in the rich

growth in emerging economies. Looking ahead, these

world have proven very resistant to change, it is likely

all point to equalization of purchasing power incomes,

that innovations in primary and secondary education will

segment by segment. Eventually this may inhibit

come from emerging economies and, in university and

globalization through backlash against growing

ongoing education, from the business sector and self-

displacement, increasing the pressure for barriers to

organized networks.

trade, and could put multinational corporations at odds with their home governments.

As income increases in India, China, Brazil, and elsewhere, growth in demand for skilled services will occur disproportionately in these emerging economies.

Collaboration: Web 2.0 is teaching organizations about the power of collective work product, leading to

Automation: Farming once occupied 60% of the U.S.

“Enterprise

workforce; now the number is 3%; manufacturing in

porous boundaries, shared responsibilities, greater

the U.S. now occupies about 15 million people -fewer

transparency, and fewer mandatory rules and practices.

than 10% of the workforce; and this number will

In part, these organizations will likely help answer the

continue to fall by 1.5 million per year through to

education question, as jobs become more diverse and

2016. As networks and decision-making algorithms

stimulating and the habit of looking outside one’s

become more powerful, we can predict that services

organization for answers becomes prevalent; the

jobs will be displaced next. Although many offer ideas,

challenge will be to discover how management will take

it is difficult to identify exactly what will replace them.

place in these adaptive enterprises.

2.0,”

an

organizational

form

with

Future of Work

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Will the open innovation movement evolve to a point where know-how and capability rather than pure IP inthe traditional sense is the currency?

These four evident and ineluctable trends will impact us

individual work lives are multiple and varied.

all in different ways and the implications for how our

Options and Possibilities Each of the four identified trends is significant, and they are neither mutually exclusive nor exhaustive. When considered together, they raise many questions, and suggest issues to monitor as the next decade unfolds. Three of the most pertinent are: What will global capitalism learn about work from the

The context in which these issues will unfold will be

emerging economies? For example: Will copyright and

radically, but predictably, different from the past. I

patent law be the framework for intellectual property (IP)

believe the most important is the locus of growth.

in the emerging economies? What is the future of full-time

Today, there are over six billion people on the planet,

employment? (In India only 7% of the labor force has

about one billion of them in rich countries. In 2050,

formal jobs.) And, how can incentive systems fairly

there will be nine billion people - yet still only one billion

measure, motivate and reward collaborative work?

in current rich countries. E growth will be centered in

Reverse Imperialism? How strongly will the rich economies resist globalization if the export of high-paying jobs becomes more of an issue than the import of inexpensive goods and services? As consumer and corporate benefits have acted as a catalyst, the off-shoring trend of recent years has served both the developed and the developing countries well, but will that continue for much longer?

growing rapidly in both number and consumption per capita. The requirements in the developing world for basic products and services - food, health care, housing - will be the world’s largest growth opportunity. Global companies will be seeking to engage these next billions not only as consumers, but as human resources. They will be inhibited, however, to the

IP rights in an information economy? IT has reduced the

degree they bring with them business models and

marginal cost of IP to essentially zero. Collaboration in the

practices from the rich world.

human genome project and many other bioscience projects (the sequencing of the SARS virus, for example) is demonstrating the power of open access to new information. So, how will incentives for creative work change to recognize these two powerful economic shifts? Will the open innovation movement evolve to a point where know-how and capability rather than pure IP in the traditional sense is the currency? If so, how will organizations monetize collaboration?

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the emerging economies, where the middle classes are

Future of Work

Technology innovation will clearly continue to change the business environment: Software will continue to erode white collar and professional work. It has already de-skilled many professions - spreadsheets make everyone a financial analyst, i-Phone-based software can now make everyone a solar panel installer. And robots being developed in Japan help take care of the aged: Automated people-care will be big business.. In


one recent study, half an hour with Paro, a robot

chains, transportation systems, utilities, and security

resembling a fur seal, improved the brain function of

systems functioning.

Alzheimer’s patients more than an hour of music therapy. Innovations in preventative healthcare will reduce the very high projections of growth in this industry. Next, workflow automation and smart infrastructure will assume much of the surveillance and coordination work done to keep supply

The technological advancement pattern of the Industrial Revolution will write its next chapter with information technology. Once again, progress will reduce manual

Education will be industrialized broken into small, repeatable tasks and thus increasingly deskilled.

labour, save time and increase wellbeing, but will also reduce traditional roles and limit opportunity for some.

The Way Ahead Industrial technology was born in the UK and grew up in the US. Information technology was born in the US, and is growing up in the emerging economies. The US will fall behind for a period, while it learns to adopt the approaches developed elsewhere. What are these? Looking globally I see four pathways that will influence work by 2020. Digital Natives in different countries will work together

trained using on-line tools and experiences. In addition

more effectively than the connected and the

both schools and corporations worldwide are

unconnected within a single country. Digital Natives

experimenting with simulations and games as training

may find new protocols arising from social networking

tools. In the US, MIT has put much of its syllabus on-

behavior, and tele-presence technologies will improve in

line and home schooling is growing more popular, and

cost and performance.

home schoolers are sharing materials and resources.

It’s possible that global

collaboration could become much more effective through the development of a range new IT solutions as it has through email. Cisco, Google, Infosys, Microsoft, IBM and the like are all placing big bets in these areas.

None of these practices amount to an important major global trend yet, but they have the potential to disrupt the way education, training, and feedback and evaluation are done. Education will be industrialized broken into small, repeatable tasks and thus

In the next decade, I also foresee a revolution in our

increasingly

approach to education. In Singapore, teachers have

“informationalized” - benefiting from training tools that

been sharing and improving one another’s lesson plans

are owned and improved by their “Web 2.0” user

for a decade. In India, “para-teachers” are being trained

communities. Success could address both the “life-long

to teach focused elements of the curriculum under the

learning” challenge in the rich world and the need to

supervision of senior teachers, one teacher for ten

rapidly educate tens of millions of people in the

para-teachers; what is more, the para-teachers are

emerging economies.

deskilled.

It

will

also

become

Future of Work

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If I had to put money on it I would suggest the industrialization of information work is certain, and will affect pretty much every business.

As well as these pathways I can imagine two more

Human beings are biologically tribal - consequently

speculative shifts will, both enabled by advances in

some amount of face-to-face meeting is required for

collaboration technologies.

collaboration among people who don’t know one

The first one of these concerns the development of North-South

vs.

East-West

trade

routes.

As

development accelerates in the southern hemisphere and communications and collaboration technologies improve, the attraction of doing business in the same time zone will become powerful. No longer will 24/7 be the only way to link between the centers of resource: Europe will increasingly work with African people resource pools, and the North - South America working dynamic will grow.

another. But time zones are inescapable - global cooperation requires that most communication be asynchronous. And language barriers, though lower than ever before, persist.

As in the North-South

dimension outlined above, these forces could lead to increased in-country partnerships. As the outsourcing trend is mitigated by rising costs of employment in the emerging economies, we may expect to see an increasing shift from off-shoring to on-shoring of jobs in which ongoing relationships are important. This will not decrease, however, the development of global

The second shift that I see having increasing impact

supply chains and the tapping of pools of capital -

concerns individuals’ predispositions to work together.

financial and human - wherever they exist.

Impact and Implications If I had to put money on it I would suggest the industrialization of information work is certain, and will affect pretty much every business. A revolution in education is less probable, but this would affect the most people globally, make a difference to their entire lives, affect nations politically and economically, and represent a force for equalizing income around the world. Were I in charge and free from all constraints I would

Compromises have to be made so I suggest, with an

announce a plan for eliminating intellectual property

own-country perspective, at least three articles of faith

rights over the next 25 years. I would require corporate

in US business should be re-examined: The focus on

boards to have some form of representation of each

individuals as the source of organization performance;

stakeholder. I would develop performance measures

the primacy of shareholders over other stakeholders;

that reflect performance in non-financial dimensions.

and the value of competition as currently practiced in

Perhaps most importantly I would fund a global effort

assuring efficient resource allocation.

on the scale of the Apollo Program to share progress in education globally. And, in the United States, I would institute a two-year requirement for national service with one year spent outside the country.

100

Future of Work

Pragmatically, if all the trends discussed above go forward, it is possible that there will be a bifurcation of business systems - a world of utilities


(telecommunications, supply chains, manufacturing and

hospitality), based on positive-sum collaboration and

natural resources), patterned on the capital-intensive

open sourcing. But beware: these two worlds may

industrial economy, in which business will be a zero-

have difficulty dealing with each other because of their

sum game, a fight for market share and dominance;

fundamental differences around trust and value.

and a world of experiences (software, media,

Future of Work

I would fund a global effort on the scale of the Apollo Program to share progress in education globally.

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102


Biographies Authenticity - Diane Coyle OBE Diane is founder of consultancy firm Enlightenment Economics, a member of the BBC Trust and a Visiting Professor at the Institute for Political and Economic Governance, University of Manchester. Her latest book is called ‘The Soulful Science’ and is about what economists really do and why it matters. The book surveys key developments in economics during the past 20 years, advances which have revolutionised economists' ability to analyse society and improve policies. Her previous bestseller was ‘Sex, Drugs and Economic’ which takes a fun look at the application of economics to all sorts of subjects. Earlier books including 'Paradoxes of Prosperity' and 'The Weightless World' address the economic and social impacts of new technologies. Choice - Professor José Luis Nueno José is a Professor in the Marketing department at IESE. He received his Doctorate of Business Administration (Marketing) at Harvard University, Master of Business Administration at IESE and Degree in Law at the Universidad de Barcelona. His areas of interest include the media and entertainment industry and retail and distribution strategy. He has published articles on globalization, marketing of consumer goods and luxury goods and relationship marketing. He has taught at a several business schools, including the elective course of Industrial Marketing at INSEAD, France as well as other management programs. He was a visiting professor at the University of Michigan and in joint programs with the University of Michigan and IESE in Vevey, Switzerland and Shanghai, China. In 2003 he was part of the faculty team for the Harvard Business School AMP Middle East Program and the Strategic Program for Retail Managers. He is a member of the Boards of Directors of a number of leading international companies. He is also a corporate consultant and advises national and international corporations in the area of marketing and strategy. Cities - Professor Richard Burdett Ricky is Centennial Professor in Architecture and Urbanism at the London School of Economics and Political Science, Director of the Urban Age Programme and founding director of the LSE Cities Programme. He recently co-curated the Global Cities exhibition at the Tate Modern in London. His latest appointment is as Principal Design Adviser for the London 2012 Olympics. Previously he was architectural adviser to the Mayor of London from 2001 - 2006, a member of the Greater London Authority's Architecture + Urbanism Unit and sat on the City of Barcelona's Quality Committee. Ricky was founder of the 9H Gallery and the Architecture Foundation in London and has been a key player in promoting design excellence amongst public and private sector organisations in the UK and Europe. He was Director of the 2006 Architecture Biennale in Venice on the subject of ‘Cities: architecture and society’ and was chairman of the Jury for the 2007 Mies van der Rohe Prize. Connectivity - Jan Färjh Jan is Vice President and Head of Ericsson Research. He received his MSc in telecommunications at the Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm in 1985. After his graduation he developed signal processing algorithms for airborne radar systems. In 1990 he joined Ericsson and started to work with radio access technologies. He was part of Ericsson's first activities in WCDMA and became manager of the unit responsible for radio access research in 1996. The research performed in this unit has contributed to the evolution of WCDMA, HSPA and 3G LTE. In 2007 he became Head of Ericsson Research. Currency - Dr. Rajiv Kumar Rajiv is Chief Executive of ICRIER, the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations. He is also on the Central Board of Directors of the State bank of India, a former member of the India National Security Advisory Board and a member of the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India. Previously he has held the positions of Chief Economist at the Confederation of Indian Industry, Economic Advisor at the Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance and Senior Consultants in the Ministry of Industry in the Government of India. Rajiv as a PhD in Economics from Lucknow University, a DPhil in Economics from Oxford University, has written several books and publications and contributes regularly to newspapers and journals. Data - D J Collins D J is Head of Corporate Communications for Google Europe. He has spent more than 10 years working in public relations and before Google worked with a wide array of clients, including one of the UK’s largest trade unions. He became one of the youngest ever Heads of News whilst working for the British Government.

Biographies

103


Energy - Leo Roodhart Leo is the 2009 President of the Society of Petroleum Engineers. Prior to this he coordinated GameChanger - Shell’s corporate Strategic Innovation program that identifies and sponsors the development of new breakthrough technologies in the context of the various technology futures for the oil industry. Several new businesses and a multitude of new technologies have been created in this new process. Leo holds an MSc in chemistry and a PhD in Mathematics and Physics from the University of Amsterdam. He is an Associate Fellow on Strategic Innovation at Templeton College and Said Business School, University of Oxford. Leo has worked for Shell for 29 years in various functions including research and development, exploration and production, business development and innovation in The Netherlands, Canada and the UK. Food - Jim Kirkwood Jim is Vice President R&D at the Center for Technology Creation at General Mills where he leads the Corporate R&D function in the development and/or acquisition of food product, process, package and Health & Wellness technologies in support of all GMI business units. Previously he led R&D for the General Mills Snacks Division, driving growth through innovation in the Granola Bar, Salty Snack, Popcorn and Fruit Snacks categories. Before that he was Director of R&D for Refrigerated and Frozen Baked Goods for the Pillsbury Company. In his food career he has also worked with HJ Heinz, Kellogg and Quaker Oats. Jim has an MBA from the University of Chicago and a BSc in Chemical Engineering from Purdue University. Health - Dr Jack Lord Jack is CEO of California-based Navigenics Inc., and was previously with Humana, Inc., where, as Chief Innovation Officer and Chief Executive of Humana Europe, he led the development of new products and services to transform the healthcare system and support personal health needs. Before Humana, Jack was president of Health Dialog, where he helped pioneer e-enabled health care and promoted shared decision making between doctors and patients. His earlier career included executive positions with the American Hospital Association, the Anne Arundel Medical Center in Annapolis, and Sun Health in Charlotte, NC. Jack is a board-certified forensic pathologist with more than three decades of experience in medical practice. After receieving his medical degree from the University of Miami in 1978, he launched his medical career with the U.S. Navy, where he served in leadership positions for the Navy’s Surgeon General and Secretary of the Navy. He is currently on the Advisory Board to the Director of the CDC, the National Biosurveillance Committee, and the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Chronic Disease and Malnutrition. He is also a director for Stericycle and Dexcom. Identity - Professor Mike Hardy OBE Mike leads the British Council’s work in intercultural dialogue - one of three programme areas which define British Council’s work in cultural relations. Intercultural Dialogue combines interventions developing the capabilities of young people as leaders and community participants, worldwide, with volunteering and schools exchanges projects. Between 2004 and 2008, Mike was Country Director for the British Council in Indonesia where, among other activities he supported the development of the UKIndonesia Islamic Advisory Group and launched new programmes in community leadership following the Tsunami in North Sumatra. Before Indonesia, Mike was a member of the British Council’s senior management team where he directed global contracts in international development. Between 1997 and 2000 he directed regional project work for the Middle East from Cairo, Egypt. Prior to the British Council, Mike was Head of Economics and Public Policy at Leeds Metropolitan University and Professor of International Business at Central Lancashire. Migration - Professor Richard Black Richard is Head of the School of Global Studies at the University of Sussex, Co-Director of the Sussex Centre for Migration Research, and Director of the Development Research Centre on Migration, Globalisation and Poverty. His work focuses on the study of international migration, including forced migration and post-conflict return, and related social and economic transformations. He is presently researching and writing on the development of public policy on migration and development, especially in poor countries, and on immigrant integration in the UK, particularly relating to recent East European and African migrations. Richard is also co-editor of the Journal of Refugee Studies, the leading international interdisciplinary journal in refugee studies, is currently serving on the Advisory Board of the Civil Society Days for the Global Forum on Migration and Development

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Biographies


in Athens and is an advisor to the Global Development Network project 'Development on the Move'. Richard completed his undergraduate degree in Geography in 1986, his PhD in 1990 and came to Sussex in 1995 from King's College London. He has worked as a consultant for a number of international organisations including the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and the European Training Foundation. Money - Dave Birch Dave is Founder of the Digital Money Forum and a co-Founder of Consult Hyperion, the IT management consultancy that specialises in electronic transactions. He is currently the Visa Europe Research Fellow in Payments at the Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation in London, who label him "one of the most user-friendly of the UK's uber-techies". He was also described by The Independent newspaper as a "grade-A geek", and by Financial World magazine as "mad". Dave is a member of the editorial board of the E-Finance & Payments Law and Policy Journal and a columnist for SPEED. He has lectured on the impact of new information and communications technologies, contributed to publications ranging from the Parliamentary IT Review to Grocery Trader and authored more than 100 Second Sight columns for The Guardian. He is a media commentator on electronic business issues. Transport - Mark Philips Mark is Interior Design Manager working at Jaguar's Advanced Design Studio. He led the interior design of the critically acclaimed new Jaguar XJ and his interior design for the 2001 R-Coupe concept car established Jaguar’s current design language. Mark’s work also includes the interior designs of the XK8 and XJ Concept-8 show car. Between 2001 and 2003, he led Jaguar design at Ford’s Ingeni Studio in Soho, London. Previously, Mark worked at Rover and Lincoln in Detroit. Waste - Professor Ian Williams Ian was the founder and Head of the Centre for Waste Management at the University of Central Lancashire and is now Director of Education and Deputy Head of the School of Civil Engineering and the Environment at the University of Southampton. He is a Chartered Chemist with a wide range of academic interests, including wastes minimisation and management; environmental chemistry and pollution; and public perceptions of environmental issues and their implications for environmental protection, public policy and society. Ian has an international reputation for research in two areas: urban environmental quality and wastes management. He has published two books and over 60 peer-reviewed papers on waste and environmental issues, as well as over 80 commercial project reports. He has held positions on the scientific and organizing committees of several international conferences and is a Trustee of the charity Waste Watch. Water - Professor Stewart Burn Stewart is Stream Leader of Infrastructure Technologies at CSIRO in Australia. His work includes fundamental research on the deterioration and management of urban water networks and the development of asset management, planning, prioritisation and risk assessment systems for these networks. He is also involved in developing methodologies to allow the transition of existing systems to more sustainable states through the adoption of decentralised technologies and the development of water treatment technologies to recover resources from wastewater. Stewart was instrumental in establishing CSIRO's Urban Water research area where he has an interest in water, wastewater and storm-water research. He is an Adjunct Professor at the Institute of Sustainability and Innovation, Victoria University, Victoria, Australia, is chairman of several Australian and international standards committees and is also Editor for both Water Science and Technology and Water Asset Management International. Work - Chris Meyer Chris is Chief Executive of Monitor Networks. His mission is to anticipate and shape the future of business. He has pursued this goal as entrepreneur, author, leader of a think tank, consultant, and executive. Products of this mission include three books: Blur: The Speed of Change In the Connected Economy; Future Wealth; and It’s Alive: the Coming Convergence of Information, Biology, and Business (all co-authored with Stan Davis) and articles in the Harvard Business Review, Sloan Management Review, Fast Company, Time, The Wall Street Journal, Business Week, and others. In 2004, Chris joined the Monitor Group to lead Monitor Networks, a business based on the ideas about human capital markets. Monitor Talent, founded by Monitor Networks, has now built a network of 75 thought leaders in business, science, and public policy; Chris curates Now New Next, the Monitor Talent blog on Harvard Business Digital.

Biographies

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Future Agenda 2009 pdf -JL Nueno  

The world has changed: Product supply and demand is globalized and there is no putting the genie back in the bottle. The flow of goods from...

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