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Albertafarmexpress.ca • november 5, 2012
Canola exports now expected to decline Supply concern } Production now forecast lower than last year,
and price-conscious buyers expected to cut purchases
China sales to decline
By Dwayne Klassen
Commodity News Service Canada
C
anadian canola exports during the 2012-13 crop year were expected to come in at a record-high level — but smaller-than-anticipated production is now predicted to dim those prospects. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, in its September supply/demand outlook, had forecast Canada’s 2012-13 canola export program to come in at a record 8.701 million tonnes, with Japan, China, the U.S., Mexico and the European Union being some of the largest customers. “The ability of Canada to export canola has taken a serious downturn and now appears that only 7.2 million tonnes will be moved offshore,”
This year’s canola pile is smaller than last year’s. ©istock said Fred Oleson, director of AAFC’s market analysis group in Winnipeg. During the 2011-12 season, Canada exported 7.105 million tonnes of canola. The decline in the export picture was linked solely to the significant reduction in canola output during 2012-13 which
was made by Statistics Canada, he said. StatsCan, in its production survey released Oct. 4, pegged Canada’s 2012-13 canola crop at 13.359 million tonnes, which compared with the August forecast of 15.409 million. In 201112, Canada’s canola production totalled 14.493 million tonnes.
With canola exports now forecast to drop to 7.2 million tonnes, Oleson speculated sales to China, Mexico and other destinations would drop proportionately. He acknowledged that in AAF C’s S eptember supply/ demand tables, it had been forecast China would take roughly 2.5 million tonnes of Canadian canola in 2012-13, Japan would purchase 2.2 million and Mexico 1.5 million. The rest would be split between outlets such as the U.S., the EU and the United Arab Emirates. However, with the reduced exportable canola supply from Canada, Oleson estimated that China’s purchases would likely drop to the 1.5-million- to twomillion-tonne range while Mexican demand would fall toward the 1.2-million-tonne range. Japan, which has been a tra-
ditional customer of Canada’s canola, was expected to remain a consistent buyer, taking the full 2.2 million tonnes. The key to canola export sales in 2012-13 will be which country wants the commodity the most and who is willing to pay the cost to get that product, said Mike Jubinville, an analyst with ProFarmer Canada in Winnipeg. Pakistan, which bought at least 500,000 tonnes of Canadian canola in 2011-12, is a cost-sensitive customer, he said. “The fact that canola ending stocks are forecast at only 450,000 tonnes in 2012-13, should result in values of the commodity staying fairly high,” he said. Oleson said that Canadian canola sales to the EU, Pakistan and the UAE will likely decline as a result of the strong price outlook.
The hay market — buyers and sellers beware Lost deposits } CFGA
has heard of nondelivery and poor quality
CFGA release
LOCK OUT BLACKLEG
Introducing 74-44 BL with enhanced blackleg resistance and high yield potential. 74-44 BL YIELD*
GREEN SEED COUNTS** 73-45 RRRR 73-45
104 %
100%
104 %
GREEN SEED RELATIVE TO 73-45 RR %
100%
N = 40
74-44 BL
L150
N = 58
1.0%
45H29 L150
74-44 BL
DEKALB® 74-44 BL canola provides multi-genic resistance to protect against a range of blackleg races common in Western Canada (Pathogenic Groups 2, 3, 4, and T). In addition to blackleg resistance, 74-44 BL has a very low green seed count compared to industry leading checks. Visit www.DEKALB.ca for more information.
45H29
Canadian hay marketers are continuing to see a surge in demand, but unfortunately, this combined with a shortage of forage due to drought appears to be bringing out some less-than-ethical operators. The Canadian Forage and Grassland Association (CFGA) has been advised of several situations whereby large deposits had been paid, but the hay was not delivered, and a couple of situations where the delivered hay was not of the agreed quality. We urge buyers and sellers to take steps to ensure that the buying and selling is done in a fair and equitable manner benefiting both parties. If you are considering purchasing or selling hay there are a number of factors that you should take into consideration including: • Have you purchased from or sold hay to this person before? If not, are you able to obtain at least two independent references? • Has the hay been analyzed and is the analysis information available? Is the hay free of mould and do you know the moisture content? Do you have some way to visually inspect the hay? • Are you purchasing from a member of the CFGA who has agreed to the Code of Ethics of the CFGA? A list of our members is available on our website. If you have concerns regarding the purchasing or selling of Canadian hay products please contact us through our website www.canadianfga.ca/foragemarketing/.
1.2% 0.7%
74-44 BL 0.4%
*Source: 2011-2012 Monsanto Field Scale Trials as of October 3, 2012. **Source: 2010-2011 Monsanto Field Scale Trails. Individual results may vary, and performance may vary from location to location and from year to year. This result may not be an indicator of results you may obtain as local growing, soil and weather conditions may vary. Growers should evaluate data from multiple locations and years whenever possible. Always follow grain marketing and all other stewardship practices and pesticide label directions. Details of these requirements can be found in the Trait Stewardship Responsibilities Notice to Farmers printed in this publication. DEKALB® and Design and DEKALB® are registered trademarks of Monsanto Technology LLC. Monsanto Canada Inc. licensee. ©2012 Monsanto Company.