Global Temperature Predicted vs Observed

Climate Model Consensus

Observed by Satellite

Climate Change: What We Know and What We Don’t

Murry Salby Ex Macquarie University Sydney AUSTRALIA

Tenets of Climate Change

1.

Proxy Evidence of Past Atmospheric Composition

2.

Modern Changes, those actually Observed

3.

Simulations of their Impact by Climate Models

Proxy Record (Ice Cores)

Observed Record (Atmospheric Measurements)

Observed Record

Growth Rate of CO2 = Net Emission

Budget of CO2

Growth Rate of CO2 = + Emission Rate (∝Temperature) - Removal Rate (∝CO2)

Limiting Behavior

Long Time Scale: Limiting Balance:

Emission Rate = Removal Rate

CO2 Growth Rate: Limited CO2 then evolves like Temperature

Short Time Scale: Short TimeLimiting Scale: Balance: Limiting Balance:

Growth Rate = Emission Rate

CO2 Growth Rate: Unlimited r Growth Rate: Unlimited CO2 then evolves like Integral of Temperature

Limiting Phase:

In Quadrature (Conservative)

X Correlation between CO2 and Temperature Theoretical

Proxy Record

Limiting Behavior

Long Time Scale: Limiting Balance:

Emission Rate = Removal Rate

CO2 Growth Rate: Limited CO2 then evolves like Temperature

Short Time Scale: Short TimeLimiting Scale: Balance: Limiting Balance:

Growth Rate = Emission Rate

CO2 Growth Rate: Unlimited r Growth Rate: Unlimited CO2 then evolves like Integral of Temperature

Limiting Phase:

In Quadrature (Conservative)

X Correlation between CO2 and Temperature Theoretical

Observed Record

Evolution in Ice

Atmospheric CO2

Impact of Dissipative Processes c

Proxy CO2

z

Evolution in Ice Impact of Dissipative Processes 100,000 yrs

10,000 yrs

Atmospheric Variance Proxy Variance

1

Frequency (Kyr-1)

Implications

• •

Dissipative Processes inherent in the Proxy Record enable Past Atmospheric Changes to be significantly Underestimated.

The Same Mechanisms which describe Ancient Changes (time scales longer than several Thousand Years) also describe Modern Changes (time scales shorter than a Century).

Evolution during the 20th Century

Evolution during the 20th Century : Ice : Ice

Estimated Budget of CO2 Emission/Absorption (GtC/yr)

5 Human Source

150

150

Native Sources

Satellite Observations

(SCIAMACHY)

Human Emission (Global)

Human Population (B)

1980

1990

2000

2010

c = 0.93

Field Observations of Emission Strong Sensitivity to Surface Properties: Temperature Soil Moisture

c = 0.93

c = -0.88

Methane

c = 0.94

Induced Component

Methane

Induced Component

Induced Component (MSU) Induced Component (CRU)

Implication “All of the increases [in CO2 concentration since pre-industrial times] are caused by human activity.”

“The increased atmospheric CO2 concentration is known to be caused by human activities because the character of CO2 in the atmosphere, in particular the ratio of its heavy to light carbon atoms, has changed in a way that can be attributed to addition of fossil fuel carbon.” (IPCC, 2007)

Impossible

Climate Model Simulations

Heat Transfer from the Ocean

•

Observations Limited

•

Overturning of Deep Ocean: Abyssal Circulation Time Scale: 1000 – 2000 yrs

•

Heat Capacity: Huge Atmospheric Warming of 1 oC = Ocean Cooling < 0.0005 oC

Implication â&#x20AC;˘

In the Real World, Global Temperature is not controlled exclusively by CO2 - as it is in the Model World.

â&#x20AC;˘

In significant part, however, CO2 is controlled by Global Temperature - as it is in the Proxy Record.

â&#x20AC;&#x153;Scientific Consenusâ&#x20AC;?

"No amount of experimentation can prove me right. A single experiment can prove me wrong." Einstein (1922)