Regulations will make it extremely difficult for small, independent producers to survive. Here are some thoughts:
This would be a worst-case scenario for independent commercial bankers.
• Agriculture
will move rap- Dr. Danny Klinefelter idly into coordinated supply chains supplied by qualified suppliers with intricate and real-time traceability and verification audits on virtually every aspect of production. Some supply-chain leads will provide financing for their growers.
• Biotechnology and nanotechnology will continue to grow at an exponential pace, leading to the production of specific-attribute raw materials and increased globalization of production. • By 2050 there is a chance the
Farm Credit System will have completely consolidated. In part, this will be in response to improvements in information technology, the cost of regulatory compliance and political pressure from commercial banks, forcing the System to become essentially a cooperative commercial bank.
• Regulations on food safety and
sustainability will proliferate to the point that the required level of management ability and technology will make it virtually impossible for small independent producers to survive.
• Water will become the oil of the 21st century, and diminishing aquifers will cause major shifts in production patterns across the U.S.
In addition:
• Conservation, environmental concerns,
food safety, public health and animal welfare are among the many issues that will influence decision-makers in agriculture.
• Greater diversity in the U.S. population will
• Solar energy will advance tremen-
• A growing global population will place
increase diversity in agriculture and among Farm Credit System borrowers.
remote control will displace many human labor jobs.
greater demands on the food supply. Agricultural exports and trade relationships will be vital to the industry.
dously, along with battery storage capacity.
Dr. Danny Klinefelter, Texas A&M University professor of agricultural economics/director of The Executive Program for Agricultural Producers and AgTexas Farm Credit Services board member
Dr. Charles Gilliland
The next 25 years will see the U.S. population expand substantially. While growth ensures increased demand for food and fiber, this vast expansion of urban population will create the potential for more conflicts with agricultural and rural communities. Those challenges will likely play out in a number of ways: planning envisions the transfer of water
SUMMER 2016
Urban agriculture, organic farming and food hubs, Kenneth Spearman while constituting a small part of the agriculture industry in 2016, will continue to grow. This trend may increase the need for credit programs to support the direct-to-consumer business model.
• Robotics, remote sensing and
The expanse of urban areas will lead to conflict with agriculture and rural communities.
• Expanding cities need water. Current
As agriculture evolves, organic and urban farming will play a bigger role.
• The changing use of data in agriculture will
from agricultural use to municipal use. By 2040, current legal uncertainties will have been resolved, and functioning water markets will move water from where it occurs to where it is needed.
• The expanding population will increase
demand for recreational opportunities and competition for access to those amenities. Prices for hunting and birdwatching retreats will rise, overwhelming the value of agricultural uses. This facet of growing urbanization will likely erode public support for continuation of open-space taxation based on agricultural use value without concessions by landowners.
• Growing populations will result in
more housing and infrastructure. Fewer people will have direct contact with
foster innovation and improve operational awareness and efficiencies.
Kenneth Spearman, Farm Credit Administration Board Chairman and CEO
land and landowners. Public pressure will attempt to inject public input into land management decisions. Rural landowners will likely face demands for public access, land-use planning, landuse controls and other public intrusions on land-use decisions. These pressures could end private property rights as they currently exist.
• The incredible growth by 2040 will
raise land values. Responsible landowners who have effectively managed their resources will see their wealth grow. This increase in prosperity will allow access to capital to fund property improvements. Dr. Charles Gilliland, research economist, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
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