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Daily Fantasy Baseball: Player Projections Player projections can be found on fantasy sports websites. You can develop your own mathematical models, or you may just intuitively understand player projections from your high level of daily fantasy baseball knowledge. No matter how you do it, this is where to start. I like to use a player’s average fantasy points per game as a base, and try to determine all of the factors in today’s game that would cause them to tend to score higher or lower than their season average score. Factors to consider are listed below. Fantasy Hitters

1. Opponent's starting pitcher’s strength – You want your hitter against a poor 2. 3. 4. 5.

pitcher and not an ace. Opponent team's relief pitching – The starter will not likely complete the whole game, so you will probably get a few innings with relievers. Are your opponent's relievers better or worse than average? Opponent starting pitcher's throwing hand – How does your hitter do against left and right handed pitchers? Are they going to do better or worse than average based on the opposing starter? Home or away games – Is the game at home or away? Does the hitter perform better at home or away? Also keep in mind that home batters may get fewer at bats at home vs. away, as the home team may not play the bottom of the ninth. Heat factor – How has your hitter been playing lately? Baseball players are pretty streaky. Hot players tend to stay hot and cold players tend to stay cold in the short-term. Try to select players that have been playing very well lately.

Fantasy Pitchers

1. Opponent hitter strength – Which teams are easiest for daily fantasy baseball pitchers to score highly against and are more likely to get the win against, and which teams tend to shell starting pitchers and chase them out of


games? Give your pitcher a good match-up and he will score higher than normal over the long-term. 2. Opposing pitcher strength – Are you pitching against an ace or a scrub? This matters if you want to get the win because of its high fantasy score. A good pitcher will still likely lose if they are up against a better pitcher. So not only do you want a good pitcher, you want to make sure that the opposing pitcher is bad. 3. Home or away game – How does your pitcher do at home vs. away? Some ballparks work very well with starting pitchers and others do not. Also, pitchers in general tend to score higher at home because home teams are more likely to get the win. 4. What are the odds? – I always like to check an online sportsbook to see who the highest favored teams are that day to win. The highest favored teams are the most likely to get the win according to the public's consensus. A highly favored starting pitcher is simply more likely to win than they are to lose. It is good, if not required, that the pitcher you select is also on a highly favored team that day.

Daily Fantasy Baseball: Player Projections  

Daily Fantasy Baseball: Player Projections

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