Figure 1: Dis tribution of points
by Luck atti tudes, all re spondents
Average of Pts
2700
Final Points Total
2500
Min of Pts
Max of Pts
2300 2100 1900 1700
1500
ance am perform in luck vs. te ts f lie e b e g en vera all respond Figure 2: A pectations, ex to e v ti la re
75% (n=26)
50% (n=93)
POST-SEASO N
FPL manager ’s
100% (n=2)
of a role do yo u feel that lu ck plays in an
25% (n=130)
(n=2)
100% (n=0)
75% (n=46)
50% (n=116)
(n=1)
25% (n=91)
MID-SEASO N
0%
Approximatel y, how much
0%
PRE-SEASON
100% (n=0)
75% (n=25)
50% (n=119)
25% (n=154)
0%
(n=4)
1300
season?
at the end of the season. There is an ever-decreasing average points total in each of the three surveys from 0% to 25%, 25% to 50%, and so on. It suggests that a __ Managers manager is best advised to disavow luck and leave performing nothing to chance. e ov ab ns io at ct However, there are anomalies in the data. At the pe ex end of the season, the ceiling for those that think __ Managers 75% luck (e.g. a lot of luck is involved) is raised aboperforming below ve others. We also see 100% (e.g. complete luck) for ns io at ct expe the first time in the post-season survey from two managers; this indicates there are some managers who believe their good rank is linked entirely to their good fortune, which is very humble of them. If we look at the average attribution of luck in each of the surveys we see that the season is bookended by almost identical attitudes; in pre-season the average attribution is 38.8% and in the postseason it is 39.7%. However, as we have seen with team value and with the attitude towards hits, the mid-season chaos of the game leads to an increased belief in the role of luck, up to 45.4%. Figure 2 shows a probable explanation for this decreased belief in our own predictive powers; when we feel out of control, it is because our teams are performing below our expectations. What the chart shows is that as more teams start performing above the expectations of their managers, belief in luck diminishes. The mid-season period appears to be the phase in which FPL managers suffer a crisis of confidence and, with their teams under-performing, are more inclined to blame it on bad luck (although to suggest that we are all completely in denial about our own role in our downfalls would be stretching the truth). By the end of the season, when the dust settles and the final totals are in, FPL managers are no longer contending with the chaos of the season and can appreciate the role of luck in much the same way that they did at the start of the season. It is in this postseason slumber, when they know that they have done everything they can and there is nothing left to predict, that the perception
__ Role of Luck (average)
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% PRE SEASON
N mid-SEASO
N POST-SEASO
picture by: Daniel Hambury/PA Wire/PA Images
0%
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There are some managers who believe their good rank is linked entirely to their good fortune, which is very humble of them
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