Chapter 11 Classical Business Cycle Analysis: Market-Clearing Macroeconomics Economics 282 University of Alberta
Business Cycle in a Classical Model â€˘ We assume that prices and wages adjust rapidly. So, the economy is in or near the general equilibrium. â€˘ A challenge of the classical theory of business cycle is a fact that the money stock leads the cycle when money should be neutral.
The Real Business Cycle Theory â€˘ The real business cycle (RBC) theory argues that real shocks to the economy are the primary cause of business cycle.
The Real Business Cycle Theory (continued) • Real shocks are disturbances to the real side of the economy: – the production function; – the size of the labor force; – the real quantity of government purchases; – the spending and saving decisions of consumers.
The Real Business Cycle Theory (continued) â€˘ Nominal shocks are shocks to money supply and money demand (affect LM curve in IS-LM model). â€˘ Productivity (supply) shocks play the largest role in the real business cycle theory, they are the dominant form of economic disturbance.
The Adverse Productivity Shock • An adverse productivity shock: – reduces MPN; – the demand for labour falls; – equilibrium employment level and real wage fall; – equilibrium level of output falls; – the interest rate rises; – consumption and investment rises; – the price level rises.
The Real Business Cycle Theory (continued) • In the RBC approach output declines in recessions and rises in booms because: – the general equilibrium level of output has changed; – rapid price adjustment ensures that actual output always equal full-employment output.
RBC Theory and the Business Cycle Facts • The correct predictions of the RBC: – productivity shocks cause recurrent fluctuations in aggregate output; – the employment is procyclical; – the real wages are procyclical; – average labour productivity is procyclical; – saving and investment move closely in different countries.
The Business Cycle Facts (continued) â€˘ A fact that is not explain by the RBC: â€“ inflation tends to slow during or immediately after a recession, contrary to the prediction of inflation.
Are Productivity Shocks the Only Source of Recessions? • The assumption by RBC theorists that productivity shocks are the only source of economic recessions is criticized by both classicals and Keynesians. • The RBC theorists’ response is that a series of small shocks can cause large fluctuation.
The Solow Residual and Technology Shocks • The most common measure of productivity shocks is Solow residual, an empirical measure of total factor productivity, A.
Y Solow residual α 1α A K N
• The Solow residual is procyclical.
The Solow Residual (continued) â€˘ The interpretation of the Solow residual as a measure of technology is questioned. â€˘ Some statistical studies reveal that it is correlated with such factors as government expenditures.
The Solow Residual (continued) • Capital and labour can be used with different utilization rates uK and uN. A(uK K)α (uN N)1α α 1 α Solow residual AuK uN α 1 α K N
• The evidence of utilization of both capital and labour is procyclical.
The Solow Residual (continued) â€˘ Labour hoarding occurs when due to the cost of hiring and firing workers, firms retain some workers in a recession that they would otherwise lay off. â€˘ Some economists find that technology shocks are rather acyclical, it is due to lags.
Fiscal Policy Shocks in the Classical Model • Classical economists argue that an increase in government purchases will reduce the workers’ wealth and will increase the labour supply. • The full-employment output will increase and the FE line will shift to the right.
Fiscal Policy Shocks (continued) â€˘ The increase in government purchases reduces desired national saving and raises the real interest rate, the IS curve shifts up. â€˘ Prices adjust and shift the LM curve to the new intersection of the FE and IS curves.
Fiscal Policy Shocks (continued) â€˘ Whether the price level rises or falls depends on relative changes to the aggregate demand and the fullemployment output.
Fiscal Policy Shocks (continued) â€˘ If the effect of increase in G on labour supply and Y is not large, the quantity of goods demanded will exceed Y , and the new equilibrium Y, r and P will be higher.
Fiscal Policy Shocks (continued) â€˘ When the government purchases rise, the labour productivity will fall and the real wage will fall. â€˘ Adding this additional fiscal policy shocks to the real business cycle model seem to improve its ability to explain the actual behaviour of the economy.
Fiscal Policy and the Cycle • Increased government spending make workers worse-off and force them to increase labour supply. • Fiscal policy has substantial lags. • The government spending should be used only when benefits exceed cost.
Unemployment in the Classical Model â€˘ In a simple classical model unemployment is zero, but in reality it is not. â€˘ Differences among workers and among jobs explain not only why the unemployment rate is always greater than zero, but also why it rises so sharply in recessions.
Unemployment in the Classical Model (continued) â€˘ Most economists agree that the dynamic reallocation of workers between sectors is an important source of unemployment.
Unemployment in the Classical Model (continued) â€˘ Classical economists point out that fiscal policy cannot directly address the microeconomic level problem arising from the mismatch.
Household Production â€˘ The RBC model can better match the data on business cycles if the model explicitly accounts for household production. â€˘ People switch more to household production in bad times.
Monetary Policy and the Economy â€˘ Classical economists view money as neutral for any time horizon. â€˘ The fact that money is a leading prociclical variable is inconsistent with the classical model.
Monetary Policy and the Economy (continued) â€˘ The classical economists argue that a reverse causation can explain the money phenomenon. â€˘ Reverse causation means that expected future increases and decreases in output cause increases and decreases in the money supply.
The Evidence of Nonneutrality of Money • Reverse causation cannot explain the entire relationship between money and real income. Friedman and Schwartz found that: – money is procyclical; – monetary changes have an independent origin.
The Misperceptions Theory â€˘ Most economist believe that money is not neutral. â€˘ The misperceptions theory implies a SRAS that is not vertical when prices should not be slow to adjust.
The Misperceptions Theory (continued) â€˘ The misperception theory says that the aggregate quantity of output supplied rises above the full-employment level, Y , when the aggregate price level, P, is higher than expected.
The Misperceptions Theory (continued) â€˘ The aggregate supply curve relates the aggregate amount of output produced to the general price level. â€˘ An producer does not know the general price level and forms expectations of it.
The Misperceptions Theory (continued)
• If an actual price level, P, rises above the expected price level, Pe, the producer responds by higher level of production.
Y Y b(P P ) e
b is a positive number that describes how strongly output responds when P > Pe.
The Misperceptions Theory (continued) â€˘ The aggregate supply curve is short-run because it applies to the period of time when the price level has yet to fully adjust. â€˘ In the long run, people learn what is actually happening to prices and the expected price level adjusts to the actual price level.
The Misperceptions Theory (continued) • The observed price level turns out to be what was expected. • The SRAS must always intersect LRAS at the expected price level.
Rational Price Expectations â€˘ The hypothesis of rational expectations states that the publicâ€™s forecasts of various economic variables, including the price level, are based on reasoned and intelligent examination of available economic data.
Rational Price Expectations (continued) â€˘ The rational price expectation is formed given the expected position of the aggregate demand curve. â€˘ If the expectation is correct the short-run price level will correspond to the expected price level.
Monetary Policy and the Money Supply â€˘ Unanticipated changes in money supply have real effects in the short-run, but anticipated changes are neutral and have no real effects.
Unanticipated Changes in the Money Supply â€˘ The Bank of Canada increases M, unexpectedly and without publicity. â€˘ The AD curve shifts up, the short-run equilibrium price level increases.
Unanticipated Changes in the MS (continued) â€˘ Y exceeds Y , money is not neutral. â€˘ People learn about true prices, adjust their Pe and equilibrium P goes up.
Anticipated Changes in the Money Supply • The Bank of Canada announces an increase in M. • The AD curve shifts up.
Anticipated Changes in the Money Supply (continued) • Public’s expected price level rises, the SRAS curve shifts up, equilibrium P goes up. • Y is not affected, money is neutral.
Rational Expectations and the Role of Monetary Policy â€˘ Any unanticipated change in aggregate demand will affect output. â€˘ The shocks are numerous.
Rational Expectations and the Role of Monetary Policy • Monetary policy should not be used as stabilization policy because: – expectations adjust quickly; – prices adjust quickly; – the policy should be unanticipated.
The Effects of Unanticipated Changes in AD â€˘ In reality shifts in aggregate demand last more than several weeks. â€˘ Classical economists stress the role of propagation mechanism, which is an aspect of the economy that allows shortlived shocks to have relatively long-term effects.
Propagation Mechanism • Suppose AD unexpectedly decreases, P falls below Pe. • The firm is fooled, it reduces its output and builds up its inventories. • After the firm returns to its normal level of production it still produces less to deplete the inventories.
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