Engel & Vรถlkers Americas
2019 Year-End Canadian Market Report Major Metro and Ski Markets 1 Engel & Vรถlkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
Engel & Vรถlkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
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2 Engel & Vรถlkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
Engel & Vรถlkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
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Table of contents
Introduction
4
National Forecast
5
Vancouver
14
Toronto
19
Montréal
23
Ottawa
28
Whistler
32
Banff
36
Mont-Tremblant
40
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Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
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Introduction
At the close of 2019, Engel & Völkers analyzed select Canadian markets and trends impacting its residents, local neighborhoods and the overall real estate landscape. With a focus on homes exceeding $1 million in primary markets including Vancouver, Toronto (GTA), Montréal, Ottawa and in the spotlight ski resort markets of Whistler, Banff and Mont-Tremblant, the analysis blends market data, insights from local real estate experts and commentary from Bullpen Consulting (bullpenconsulting.ca).
Engel & Völkers Americas in collaboration with Bullpen Consulting
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Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
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National Forecast
In 2020, Engel & Völkers forecasts Canada to have a 4 per cent growth in the resale price, informed by strong demand drivers and 2019’s housing market resiliency. Residential home price growth was quite modest in 2019, rising by 1 per cent year-over-year. However, underlying fundamentals were very strong, including record population growth of 560,000 nationally, with the third quarter showing an increase of more than 200,000 new residents. This, coupled with last year’s Canadian labour market adding a total of 417,000 jobs and bringing the unemployment rate down to 5.2 per cent — the lowest level in more than 15 years — is expected to benefit the 2020 real estate market. Engel & Völkers real estate shops in primary markets cited less than 3 per cent of transactions with non-resident buyers. However, this number increased in ski markets, with Mont-Tremblant and Whistler seeing more international buyers compared to Banff. International buyers from China are the most prevalent in Vancouver and Toronto, but American buyers are the top international clients in ski markets according to Engel & Völkers.
In 2020, Engel & Völkers forecasts 4% growth in the resale market, informed by strong demand drivers and 2019’s market resiliency.
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Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
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National Forecast: Metropolitan Markets
Annual Population Growth and Annual Percentage Growth by Quarter, Canada 2009-2019
Record growth of 560,000 residents in 2019, with a sharp jump of 200,000 from 2016
560k
Source: Statistics Canada
Vancouver began 2019 in the same fashion it finished
while the high-end market continues to be impacted by
2018 after a historically slow year in volume of sales. The
the many government taxes geared towards foreign
market continued as balanced, but the number of sales
ownership. As a result, international buyers from regions
remained slow and prices saw a decline. The second half of
like China — previously a primary driver in Vancouver’s
2019 saw a rapid change in sales volume primarily from the
luxury market — has slowed significantly. Optimistically,
local market and an uptick in interest from Hong Kong due
with the resurrection of the local market, Engel & Völkers
to recent unrest in the region. The primary surge in sales
anticipates prices will see an increase of 4 to 7 per cent in
was seen in the lower to middle segments,
2020.
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Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
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Toronto’s 2019 market proved buoyant, finding its footing in the second part of the year and maintaining its position as a seller’s market. This was driven by a strong economy and healthy population growth, as well as domestic and foreign
immigration.
The
largest
international
buyer
segments were seen coming to Toronto from China, Iran,
Montréal holds its position as one of Canada’s hot housing markets for luxury real estate.
and Russia. A noteworthy portion of this demographic has the financial resources to purchase luxury housing. Engel & Völkers expects city prices to increase at a quicker pace of 4 to 7 per cent and suburban prices to rise by 3 to 5 per cent within the Oakville market, a suburb of Toronto.
business professionals, creatives and tech talent. Engel & Völkers anticipates annual price growth in Montréal of 4 to 7 per cent in 2020, seeing it hold its position as one of Canada’s hottest housing markets for luxury real estate. Ottawa remains positioned as a growing seller’s market
Price growth of 4 to 7% expected in Toronto, Montréal and Ottawa markets.
4-7%
with its high condo demand, booming tech sector and limited housing inventory. There is new interest from developers who are entering the market and building luxury condos for those in search of a different lifestyle and type of home ownership. In 2020, the Dow’s Lake and Civic
The Montréal market is booming, with the local real estate
Hospital
board indicating bidding wars occurring in record numbers
neighbourhoods to live in with both areas having strong
in 2019. It is a growing seller’s market fueled by a potent
activity in 2019 and an influx of new developments.
mix of heritage properties, creative industries and an
Suburban buyers seeking a mix of quaint downtown
emerging tech economy. Large investments by global
boutiques and big box shopping retailers will be delighted
corporations in downtown Montréal as well as an influx of
by Stittsville, Manotick and smaller communities south of
start-ups are fueling the price surge. There is a consistent
Ottawa like Kemptville and Arnprior to the west. Many
demand and attractiveness to live in the city, with days on
prospective buyers are moving into less populated
market shortening due to many properties selling above
municipalities within 45 minutes to an hour of Ottawa
asking. Engel & Völkers expects this to continue in 2020
because of its more affordable properties. The Ottawa
with neighbourhoods like Mile End and Mile-Ex emerging as
market is projected to grow by 4 to 7 per cent, positioning it
thriving areas to live and invest in, drawing interest from
as a hot luxury housing market in 2020.
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areas
are
forecasted
as
up-and-coming
Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
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National Forecast: Ski Markets
The resale housing market in Whistler has shifted from a
In comparison to other parts of Alberta, the Banff and
seller’s market in early 2019 to a balanced market.
Canmore area is a buyer’s market and is expected to remain
Whistler sales were down in 2019, but market values
relatively flat in 2020. Banff’s tourist-driven market is not
remained steady due to the high concentration of affluent
experiencing the price declines seen in other areas of the
second home buyers who were not impacted by
province and attracts prospective buyers from around the
short-term sales volatility. The market is not subject to the
globe, including the United States and Europe. Due to its
foreign buyers tax, boosting interest from offshore
mountain culture, Europeans from Austria and Switzerland
investors. This year saw an increased number of millennials purchasing in Squamish, located halfway between Vancouver and Whistler. Engel & Völkers anticipates this periphery market activity will help to accelerate overall growth in the area, making properties inside Whistler even more exclusive. According to Local Logic, one of the most common lifestyle search terms by prospective buyers in Whistler over the past six months
were among the first to settle in Banff, and they have continued to seek out high-end chalet and apartment-style properties for part-time use in Canmore. Additionally, the 2019 market did not rise as quickly as in previous years due to fewer locals driving up property prices through multiple offers. Engel & Völkers anticipates Banff’s market prices could see a decline of 1 to 5 per cent in 2020.
was “primary schools”, indicating new families are seeking
Mont-Tremblant has maintained a consistent position as a
long term residence in the area. Engel & Völkers forecasts
buyer’s market for more than 15 years, though this has been
the market will grow up to 3 per cent in 2020.
slowly shifting as inventory is expected to continue decreasing in 2020. With this, the region is finding its balance. The market is feeling the impact of Montréal’s
One of the most common lifestyle search terms by prospective buyers in Whistler over the past six months was “primary schools”, indicating new families are seeking long term residence in the area.
recent success, as boomers and affluent Gen Xers buy second homes and full-time real estate investors buy up and manage short-term rental units to service this high-demand ski market. With Alterra Mountain Company’s new ownership of
Mont-Tremblant,
the
mountain
is
undergoing
a
transformative upgrade in amenities. As a result, the area is seeing a rise in new construction builds and development from significant investment. Specifically, homes are being fabricated, transported and then assembled on-site. These builds have cleaner lines, larger windows and expansive views of the surrounding areas, bringing nature into the home. The Mont-Tremblant market is expected to see price growth between 4 and 7 per cent in 2020.
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Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
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National Forecast
Four of the Select Engel & Völkers Shops Stated Investors or Second Home Buyers Comprised 20% or More of Client Base
20% Whistler, Toronto (GTA), Montréal and Tremblant are reporting 20% share of clients are investors/second home buyers.
Source: Bullpen Consulting Quantitative Survey, Engel & Völkers License Partners, 2019
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Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
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National Forecast
The Canadian Landscape Canada’s resale market performance pulled back in 2019,
gage stress test, the continued conditions in the
increasing by just 1 per cent year-over-year. Housing price
commodity-driven
inflation was at its lowest level in 10 years according to data
Saskatchewan, as well as the minor correction in the
from the House Price Index by Teranet and the National
Vancouver market contributed to the lower level of
Bank of Canada (Teranet HPI), as well as CREA’s House
growth, despite pick-up in activity in Ontario and Quebec.
provinces
of
Alberta
and
Price Index (CREA HPI). The negative impact of the mort-
Teranet and CREA HPI Average Index Values for Resale Housing by Month, Canada, January 2009 - November 2019 ...the bank is forecasting resale price growth of
7.8% annually in 2020.
Source: Teranet-National Bank Home Price Index, CREA Home Price Index The chart shows the Teranet HPI and CREA HPI have tracked each other closely since 2009 (NOTE: January 2005 = 100 for the indexes).
According to the Canadian Quarterly Economic Forecast by TD Economics in December 2019, the bank is forecasting resale price growth of 7.8 per cent annually in 2020. CMHC’s Housing Market Outlook for Canada, released in fall 2019, calls for national resale prices to rise between 5.6 and 6.8 per cent in 2020.
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Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
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Canada Sets New Annual Record for Population Growth Despite the slower resale housing price inflation in 2019,
Immigration, and non-permanent residents continue
one factor putting upwards pressure on home prices is
tomake Canada their temporary home for post-secondary
Canada’s record population growth. According to Statistics
education and part-time contract work. This increase has
Canada, the population increased by nearly 560,000 in
likely fueled the investor market. When asked about the
2019 to reach 37.8 million. This growth rate of 1.5 per cent
primary reason their clients invest, 63 per cent of Engel &
is the highest rate seen since the early 1990s, and the
Völkers shops indicated long-term rental, 25 per cent
absolute annual increase is a record high observed in
short-term rental, and 13 per cent part-time family use.
Canada. It is also the highest amongst G7 countries. The
Ski markets are where investors primarily rent their units
federal government has made a commitment to increase
for short-term or part-time use.
Half of Engel & Völkers’ Clients Buy Investment Properties as a Diversification Strategy
According to Statistics Canada, the population increased by nearly 560,000 in 2019 to reach
Price appreciation
Cash flow Diversification strategy / capital preservation
37.8 million
.
For future personal or family use
Source: Bullpen Consulting Quantitative Survey, Engel & Völkers License Partners, 2019
The Majority of Engel & Völkers’ Clients Rent Their Investment Properties Long Term Short term rental
Long term rental
Part time personal or family use
Source: Bullpen Consulting Quantitative Survey, Engel & Völkers License Partners, 2019
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Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
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National Forecast
Unemployment Rate Dropped to Lowest Level in 15 Years Canada’s healthy labour market is another major factor impacting housing demand in major metro areas. Canada added 417,000 jobs annually from November 2018 to November 2019, the largest increase over the past 10 years. The unemployment rate has declined to 5.2 per cent, reaching its lowest level in 15 years. According to the BMO Economics Vision 2020 report released in December 2019, the unemployment rate is expected to slightly rise to 5.6 per cent in 2020.
New Home Prices Increased by 4 per cent Year-over-Year, While New Luxury Homes Rose by 8 per cent Another measure of economic strength is the level of housing starts as tracked by the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).
From
Q4-2018
to
Q3-2019,
construction began on more than 213,000 new residential dwellings in Canada, which is down
8%
New luxury homes (80th percentile) have increased by 8% or more in five out of the last six years.
1 per cent annually, but above the 10-year average
of
200,000.
According
to
RBC
Economics Macroeconomic Outlook report released in December 2019, housing starts are
Average Price & 80th Percentile for Absorbed New Single-Detached Houses by Year
forecasted to hit 211,000 in 2020, nearly identical to last year. CMHC also tracks the average price of new homes at completion. The average price for absorbed single-family new homes in 2019 (January to November) was approximately $839,000. This average price was up 4 per cent year-over-year, which is the lowest annual reading since 2010. The national data shows the 80th percentile of absorbed single-family new home prices was $1.05 million, which was up 8 per cent annually. New luxury homes (80th percentile) have increased by 8 per cent or more in five
Source: CREA HPI & CMHC
out of the last six years. 12 Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
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2019 Must-Haves for Luxury Home Buyers To further assess buyer preferences, Engel & Völkers asked
The survey also asked the brokerages to rank client
its local market experts about their clients’ preferred design
priorities when looking for a new property. As anticipated,
finishes and property types. Responses were provided by
the old axiom of ‘location, location, location’ holds true as
shops in Vancouver, Toronto (GTA), Montréal, Ottawa,
the top housing priority with an average rank of 18.9 per
Whistler, Banff, and Mont-Tremblant.
cent. Where location ranked most desirable, price ranked fifth out of seven options. High net worth buyers are
Shops were asked to rank preferred property types in order
looking to purchase primarily a move-up or second home,
from most desirable (1) to least desirable (6). Respondents
and both views and lot size ranked sixth and seventh
indicated two-storey, single-detached homes are the most
respectively. It should be noted Whistler was the only
desirable, with an average rank of 1.6. The two markets not
market where the preferred unit size for the majority of
ranking
purchasers was less than 2,000 square feet. In all other
two-storey
singles
as
most
popular
were
Mont-Tremblant and Whistler, where executive townhouses
markets 2,000 to 3,000 square feet is in highest demand.
were the top selection. Despite the recent condo boom in Montréal, high-rise condominium apartments were ranked last in preference.
Location and Interior Finishes are Top Ranked Priorities Lot Size Location Views
Price Interior Finish
Size Property Type
Source: Bullpen Consulting Quantitative Survey, Engel & Völkers License Partners, 2019
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Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
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Vancouver
Market Overview Vancouver experienced a market shift in 2018, switching from a seller’s market to a balanced market. Throughout this shift, the market hiccuped, with buyers waiting and
The second half of the year saw a sales surge, with strong price growth moving into 2020.
sellers holding their position well into 2019. By mid-year, consumer confidence picked up as buyers and sellers became familiar with the market’s new reality. The second half of the year saw a sales surge, with strong price growth moving into 2020.
An In-Depth Look
new “normal” in the market, which involves a longer duration between listing and sale. The result is a much more stable and locally-driven market.
The Vancouver housing market continues to adjust following
several
government
policy
initiatives
and
The beginning of 2019 was historically slow in the
changes. Prices were down by 9 per cent year-over-year,
Vancouver housing market following 2018, which was the
with the largest dip clustered in the first half of the year.
slowest year for transactions in more than a decade. Engel
According to the CREA HPI, by November 2019 the
& Völkers attributes this pause in transactions to the foreign
average single-family benchmark resale price was $1.42
buyers tax and the empty homes tax implemented by the
million and down by 5.6 per cent annually. New
municipal and provincial governments in mid 2017.
single-family home prices in 2019 were down 5 per cent
However, the market picked up in the summer as buyers
on average in comparison to 2018, but just 3.7 per cent in
and sellers became more accustomed to dealing with the
November 2019 to $2.23 million.
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Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
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Average Price for New and Resale Housing by Month, Vancouver, January 2009 to November 2019 In 2019, Engel & Völkers recorded 25% of its Vancouver sales closing well over $1 million, with an average sales price of
$883,000. Heading into 2020, the local brokerage recorded approximately 90 listings within this price point, indicating a strong start to the year.
Source: CREA HPI & CMHC
Vancouver continued to see substantial sales in 2019. Waterfront properties on Point Grey Road, also known as the Golden Mile, ranged from $13 to $15 million. While the high-end market has slowed, the Vancouver luxury market still holds many notable and prestigious listings, continuing to garner interest locally and internationally.
“ There is a robust local market, despite the considerable drop off in non-resident buyers. Overall, the market is still
- Andrew Carros, License Partner Engel & Völkers Vancouver
in transition. It is balanced right now, but sales activity has picked up in recent months resulting in multiple offers, as sellers are pricing their properties more realistically and effectively. ”
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Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
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Vancouver
Vancouver Forecast Engel & Völkers anticipates annual price growth from 4 to 7 per cent in 2020, with the expectation for much greater activity within the majority of price points. There has been a significant uptick in interest locally, as prices have fallen. The more stable buying and selling environment has resulted in renewed buyer confidence. International buyers have been reluctant to purchase due to the implementation of new foreign taxes, but Vancouver continues to be one of the most desired destinations due to its stable climate, economy, and reputation for being one of the most livable cities in the world. The high-end market was driven by international buyers, so the anticipation is this segment will continue to be slower compared to previous years. The unrest in other regions around the world like Hong Kong have renewed interest in Vancouver as a top option for immigration, despite the additional taxes. As local residents are dominating sales activities, the top area for growth in 2020 for buyers and sellers is in the west end of Mount Pleasant, from Main Street towards Cambie Street. This is a desirable area due to its centrality and proximity to all of Vancouver’s best amenities, transit and highly-rated schools. The average price for a luxury, single-family resale property in postal code V5Z was $2.88 million in 2019, significantly less than the postal code to the north at $4.55 million and to the west at $4.24 million.
Vancouver's more stable buying and selling environment has resulted in renewed buyer confidence.
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Engel & Völkers Vancouver 5324 Marine Drive, West Vancouver, BC
Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
16
Americans are Primary Buyers in Ski Markets, While Chinese Buyers are Primary International Buyers in Toronto and Vancouver
Source: Bullpen Consulting Quantitative Survey, Engel & Vรถlkers License Partners, 2019
The unrest in regions around the world like Hong Kong have renewed interest in Vancouver as a top option for immigration. Engel & Vรถlkers Vancouver PH3-777 Richards Street, Vancouver, BC
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Engel & Vรถlkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
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Vancouver
Average Price of Luxury Resale Single-Family House Listings by Postal Code, Vancouver, 2019
Source: MLS Listings Data provided by Engel & Vรถlkers
Key Luxury Resale Single Family House Listings, West Point, 2019
Source: MLS Listings Data provided by Engel & Vรถlkers
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Engel & Vรถlkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
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Toronto
Market Overview
Average Price of New and Resale Housing by Month, Toronto, January 2009 to November 2019
Toronto’s 2019 market proved buoyant, finding its footing in the second part of the year and maintaining its position as a seller’s market. 2019 finished with Metro Toronto home prices rising and market conditions providing a negotiating advantage to sellers. Strong economic essentials like climbing job creation, accelerated population growth and low interest rates competed with new market forces such as the mortgage stress test and
non-resident
speculation
tax.
These
competing market conditions in the early part of the year put a significant halt on luxury property transactions for inventory priced more than $4 million; however, the latter part of the year saw
Source: CREA HPI & CMHC
these properties move again, indicating Toronto is primed to continue to be a healthy place for luxury in 2020. Consistent throughout the 12-month period was demand for condos, with multiple offers for anything under $500,000. 19 Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
Consistent throughout the 12-month period was demand for condos, with multiple offers for anything under $500,000. Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
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Toronto
An In-Depth Look
Key Luxury Resale Single-Family Home Listings, North Toronto, 2019
Engel & Völkers sees continued strong interest from investors and new home buyers seeking to move to Toronto. Despite the high prices in downtown Toronto and the GTA, people continue to move to the region. According to Statistics Canada, the overall population of the Toronto metro area increased by approximately 125,000 people in 2018. Much of the increase in population is driven by domestic and foreign migration. The largest international buyer segments are coming to Toronto from China, Iran and Russia. A noteworthy portion of this population has the financial resources to purchase luxury housing. There continues to be steady interest in the
Source: MLS Listings Data provided by Engel & Völkers
high-end market, including the typical affluent communities of Yorkville, the Annex, Forest Hill,
Engel & Völkers Toronto Central indicated its investor clients are
and Rosedale. However, there has been a
pooling resources and looking outside Toronto in search of
noticeable increase of interest in King Street
multiplexes in areas like Hamilton, Burlington, and Barrie. Affordability,
from buyers looking to downsize, with a keen
proximity to Toronto, large lot sizes and new builds make these areas
interest in one-of-a-kind builds like the one by
attractive prospects for investors. The brokerage also highlighted
Westbank Corp., designed by starchitect Bjarke
many of its investor-clients are still buying condos for lease
Ingels.
opportunities due to the hot Toronto rental market.
Investor clients are pooling resources and looking outside Toronto
in search of multiplexes
in areas like Hamilton, Burlington, and Barrie.
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Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
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According to Engel & Völkers Oakville, the thriving rental market is primarily for long-term use and consists of limited groups of investor and second home buyers. In contrast, Engel & Völkers Toronto Central reports a total of 20 per cent or greater are investor clients. Rental rates for vacant units are appreciating quickly, with data from Rentals.ca for October and November in 2018 and 2019 showing an 18 per cent increase in studio rents, 8 per cent increase in one bedroom rents and a 14 per cent increase in two bedroom rents. The Ontario government expanded rent control to all units in April 2017, but buildings completed after November 2018 are not subject to rent control. As of the end of 2019, over 95 per cent of all rental and condominium apartments in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) still have rent control, which allows for a maximum 2.2 per cent rent increase through 2020.
“ Interest rates are coming down and buyers have become acclimated to the mortgage stress test. We are seeing more private financing to get around the constraints formal banks adhere to. As a result, things started picking up in the latter part of 2019, and we expect that to continue into 2020. Home sellers are also becoming more realistic about the offers and prices they’ll receive for their properties. Because of these factors,
Engel & Völkers Toronto Central 377 Madison Ave #710, Toronto, ON
I see the market continuing to gain traction in 2020. ” - Anita Springate-Renaud, License Partner Engel & Völkers Toronto Central 21 Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
21
Toronto
Engel & Völkers reported
29% of its closed deals in the Toronto area sold for more than $1 million in 2019 with 92 active listings over $1 million heading into 2020.
Toronto Forecast Engel & Völkers expects city prices to increase at a quicker pace of 4 to 7 per cent and suburban prices of 3 to 5 per cent within the Oakville market. 2020 is projected to perform better than 2019, continuing its uptick in the latter half of the year. Consumer confidence is growing positive as interest rates go down and perceptions of the local market become normalized. The CMHC's Fall 2019 Housing Market Outlook reports Toronto CMA population is expected to grow by 138,000 people in 2020, and employment will rise by 92,000 jobs — both categories have shown very strong results historically. Engel & Völkers Oakville 163 Chartwell Road, Oakville, ON
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Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
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Montréal
Market Overview
Average Price of New and Resale Housing by Month, Montréal, January 2009 to November 2019
Montréal consistently remains one of the top luxury housing markets in Canada. For the fourth consecutive year, the average single family resale house price in Montréal increased 7 per cent in 2019, condominiums increased by 14 per cent and plexes (2-5 units) increased by 14 per cent year-over-year. By the end of December 2019, total residential sales reached 3,533, increasing by 26 per cent compared to December 2018. 2019 proved once again to be a seller’s market, with much
of
the
inventory
receiving
multiple
offers,
according to Engel & Völkers Montréal. This was the first year the city consistently experienced multiple offers on properties, with many receiving 10 or more. The Quebec Professional
Association
of
Real
Estate
Source: CREA HPI & CMHC
Brokers
(QPAREB) reported 35 per cent of all real estate transactions through September 2019 in Rosemont-La
For the fourth consecutive year, the
Petite-Patrie resulted in selling prices exceeding asking
average single-family resale house price
prices. That is the highest proportion among Montréal
in Montréal increased 7% in 2019.
Island neighbourhoods. 23 Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
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Montréal
An In-Depth Look Montréal’s most in-demand luxury markets continue to be Plateau Mont Royal, Outremont, Westmount, Montreal West, Town of Mont-Royal and the West Island, with reports of homes trading for above $1 million over the past two years. Single family units remain the most popular among affluent buyers, with few available vacant lots and strict planning guidelines for new builds, including height restrictions. According to data released by QPAREB, all six main areas of Montréal’s CMA registered significant sales increases in December, including North Shore (35 per cent increase), South Shore (31 per cent increase), Laval (27 per cent increase), Island of Montréal (21 per cent increase), Vaudreuil-Soulanges (20 per cent increase) and Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu (19 per cent increase). The median price of single family homes stood at $355,000 in December, up 9 per cent compared to one year earlier. The median price of condominiums stood at $285,000, a sustained increase of 5 per cent compared to December 2018. The median price of plexes jumped by 11 per cent year-over-year, reaching $581,000.
Engel & Völkers cited its average sales price in 2019 in Montréal was
$761,000, with 155 current listings over $1 million entering 2020. In 2019, it closed 206 deals priced over $1 million.
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Engel & Völkers Montréal 23 Chemin Edgehill, Westmount, QC
Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
24
The investor market has picked up in Montréal, especially with data from Rentals.ca showing average rents in some areas of the city growing by over 20 per cent annually. Newcomer and foreign investor interest is growing, with the largest international buyer group coming from French-speaking Europe and North Africa, including France, Algeria, Lebanon, Morocco, and Egypt. A growing investor group is coming from China, the most affluent of which are buying hotels, while others are concentrating on downtown new construction. When the foreign buyers tax was introduced in Toronto, inquiries on Juwai.com, a website featuring international properties to an audience of high net worth Chinese buyers, grew by 85 per cent in 2017.
“ Montréal benefited greatly from the lack of a foreign buyers tax – more so after Toronto’s went into effect. In 2019, it seemed like all eyes were on Montréal when looking to buy, and we’re seeing strong interest from French speaking countries in Europe and North Africa as well as China. Our growing labour market, quality of life, strong affordability and top-ranked schools make Montréal one of the best cities to live in, globally.”
Engel & Völkers Montréal 353-363 Rue St-Paul E., Old Montreal, QC
- Patrice Groleau, License Partner Engel & Völkers Montréal
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Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
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Montréal
Montréal consistently ranks as the best city in the world for students on the QS Best Student Cities
Summary Data on Select Luxury Resale Listings above $1 Million by Neighbourhood
ranking list with top-tier universities like Université de Montréal and McGill University. 2019 saw it earn this position once again. The QS Best Student Cities ranking considers factors such as the quality of a city’s universities, its student population, accessibility for international students, safety, affordability, employment opportunities and a survey of students from around the world. With this, Montréal is seeing a rising trend of international students moving into the city for post-secondary
education
and
long-term
residency. Source: MLS Listings Data provided by Engel & Völkers
A neighbourhood to watch is Mile-Ex, an industrial area attracting architects and creatives who are converting spaces into residential lofts and
For high-end buyers, the most
businesses. Mile-Ex sits next door to Mile End, a
in-demand markets
destination for food, art and galleries. Mile-Ex is the
emerging
tech
hub
of
Montréal,
with
multinational corporations like IBM, Facebook,
are Plateau Mont Royal, Outremont and the Gay Village.
Google, and Samsung expanding operations in this area. The Montréal Institute for Learning
positive
Algorithms is opening a new facility supporting
up-and-coming markets for investors are Little
700 workers here as well. Both Mile End and
Italy and Villeray. Overall, Engel & Völkers
Mile-Ex
in
Montreal is also seeing the South Shore, North
Montréal. These multifaceted communities have a
Shore, Eastern Townships, Tremblant and
rich history as an immigrant corridor and are
Québec City growing as strong luxury markets in
known for affordability and a wide-range of
the province.
are
important
economic
drivers
26 Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
cash
flow
duplexes.
Other
Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
26
Montréal Forecast Engel & Völkers projects annual growth by 4 to 7 per cent in 2020. The market is projected to continue being a strong seller’s market, attracting demand both domestically and internationally. Shorter selling times for all property types reflect this position in favour of sellers. Single family homes were down by 15 per cent to 61 days and condominiums were down by 17 per cent to 76 days. It is clear Montréal benefited greatly from the lack of a foreign buyers tax, and overall consumer confidence remains high. There is a consistent demand and attraction for living in the city, evident by the reduced days on the market and many properties selling above asking. Engel & Völkers expects this to continue in 2020 with up-and-coming neighbourhoods like Mile End and Mile-Ex emerging as thriving areas to live and invest in, drawing interest from business professionals, creatives and tech talent. Engel & Völkers predicts Montréal will hold its position as one of Canada’s top markets for luxury real estate in 2020, seeing growth in both demand and prices.
Mile End and Mile-Ex are emerging as thriving areas to live and invest in, drawing interest from business professionals, creatives and tech talent.
27 Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
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Ottawa
Market Overview
Average Price of New and Resale Housing by Month, Ottawa, January 2009 to November 2019
The Ottawa residential real estate market was one of the strongest in the country this year, with the average single-family resale price increasing by 9 per cent annually to just over $485,000. It had a record-breaking year in both number of sales as well as average prices, according to the Ottawa Real Estate Board. There is new interest from developers who are entering the market and building luxury condos offering a different lifestyle and type of home ownership. Ottawa remains positioned as a growing seller’s market with its high condo demand, booming tech sector and limited housing inventory. Source: CREA HPI & CMHC
Ottawa remains positioned as a growing seller’s market with its high condo demand, booming tech sector and limited housing inventory.
28 Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
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28
An In-Depth Look The Ottawa market grew throughout 2019,
at the Ottawa suburbs where schools and recreation facilities are
maintaining this momentum into December.
a big draw.
Single-family homes remain the most popular property type, but the market for condos and
Suburban buyers seeking a mix of quaint downtown boutiques and
apartments picked up, with average days on
big box shopping retailers will be delighted by Stittsville, Manotick
market dropping from nearly 50 days to less
and smaller communities south of Ottawa like Kemptville and
than 30 days in 2019.
Arnprior to the west. Many prospective buyers are moving into less populated municipalities within 45 minutes to an hour of Ottawa
The luxury market is primarily comprised of high ranking
government
officials
and
because of its more affordable properties.
business
professionals. There is limited international
The biggest cluster of ultra-luxury resale listings is in Rockcliffe Park,
presence in the market currently, and it
where properties range from $3 to $5 million. Rockcliffe Park is a
continues to be fueled by government workers
designated Heritage Conservation District and boasts narrow
and an influx of new workers in the tech
curving roads, which have neither curbs nor sidewalks, and wind
industry. In addition to Shopify, Ottawa’s tech
through a well-treed village of large single-detached homes on
industry has extensive expertise in artificial
generously-sized lots.
intelligence,
autonomous
vehicles,
next
generation networks, 5G, cyber security, digital media, and biotechnology, according to LRO Staffing.
Key Luxury Resale Single-Family House Price Listings, Rockcliffe Park, 2019
As prices rise in the Ottawa area, millennial families are receiving more help from their parents to purchase homes. They are looking
Average days on market dropping from nearly 50 days to less
than 30 days
in 2019. Source: MLS Listings Data provided by Engel & Völkers
29 Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
29
Ottawa
According to data from Local Logic, prospective buyers searching for properties above $1 million in Ottawa have an almost equal preference for three bedroom versus four bedroom homes, as each accounted for approximately one-third of luxury home searches. Forty-three per cent of Ottawa luxury home searches were for properties with two bathrooms and 34 per cent for three bathrooms. Banff and Toronto are the only markets where prospective luxury home buyers are searching for dwellings with three bathrooms more often than dwellings with two.
Share of Luxury Searches by Bedroom Type
Source: Local Logic
Engel & Völkers Ottawa Central cites strong
Engel & Völkers Ottawa Central
diversification in its current property listings priced
55 Fourth Avenue, Ottawa, ON
between $600,000
and $3 million.
It closed 31 deals over $1 million in 2019.
30 Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
30
Ottawa Forecast Engel & Völkers estimates annual price growth of 4 to 7 per cent in 2020. Ottawa is projected to continue to have limited housing supply and strong market demand, bringing upward price pressure. The local economy also continues to grow, generating steady sales volumes in the local region despite tight inventory. For 2020, Dow’s Lake and Civic Hospital areas are forecasted as up-and-coming neighbourhoods to live in, with both areas having strong activity in 2019 and bringing in an influx of new developments. For property types, condo units remain popular choices as wise, low-risk investments for first-time buyers, while single family dwellings in Ottawa’s most prestigious neighbourhoods are expected to grow in value and exclusivity.
“ A neighbourhood to watch would be Old Ottawa East, bordered by the Rideau River and around the main streets – St. Paul's university area. New developments are popping up, making it a fantastic place to invest and live in right now. The area has downtown amenities, a growing community and a new pedestrian bridge connecting Old Ottawa East with Lansdowne Park. It’s really become a hotspot. ”
Engel & Völkers Ottawa Central 303-12 Stirling Avenue, Ottawa, ON
- John King, License Partner Engel & Völkers Ottawa Central
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Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
31
Whistler
Market Overview
An In-Depth Look
Engel & Völkers Whistler is reporting the resale housing
Consumer confidence in Whistler is typically steady, and
market has shifted from a seller’s market in early 2019 to a
locals tend to be patient. The high concentration of
balanced market. While it is considered a small market by
affluent second home owners means the market is not in
number of transactions, Whistler properties command a
a rush to sell, and these affluent homeowners are not
very high price point due to limited supply and international
swayed by short-term price movements. The monthly or
demand.
by
annual swings in prices often have more to do with the
approximately 40 per cent year-over-year and the doubling
smaller sample of transactions and ultra-luxury property
of single-family inventory, prices held in 2019.
sales than any hefty decline in demand.
Despite
a
decline
in
resale
trades
Local sentiment among real estate professionals was that
Despite a decline in resale trades by approximately 40% year-over-year and the doubling of single-family inventory, prices held in 2019.
a general fear of a recession kept prospective buyers from making purchases in 2019, but that chatter has died down, and sales are expected to bounce back in 2020. The rise in activity will not top 2018’s record highs, but should result in positive growth for both units traded and prices, especially in the luxury market. The most coveted homes in Whistler are the ski-in/ski-out properties located in Kadenwood. There are only 60 of
32 Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
32
these
unique
properties,
which
include
access to a private gondola to the valley floor. Ranking just behind these homes are
Engel & Völkers reported
40% of its closed
sales in 2019 were over $1 million in Whistler.
the estate properties in neighbourhoods like Stonebridge,
Tamarisk,
and
Sunridge.
Pemberton is also generating interest as an
Currently, it has 51 properties listed over $1 million with average days on market at 126.
emerging area to live in. Data from Local Logic on online housing
expected to benefit from these changes, as they are not required to
MLS activity shows 17 per cent of all
follow the same building codes applicable to new homes. Therefore, it
searches in Whistler were for properties
will likely be more affordable to buy an older home and renovate to a
above
to
like-new standard than to purchase a new home. Fewer new homes and
December 2019, which marks the highest
more renovation spending could result in even higher resale prices in the
share among the markets covered in this
future.
$1
million
from
July
2019
report, in addition to Vancouver and Toronto. There has been an uptick in environmental technology companies and an With high home prices in Whistler, there
emerging cannabis industry appearing in surrounding areas like
tends to be fewer millennial buyers. Engel &
Squamish, but tourism-related firms continue to be the most prominent
Völkers observes most of its buyers are
employers in the region. Tourists from around the globe have purchased
between the ages of 40 and 55, with about
second and third homes in Whistler and contribute to the area’s high
30 per cent to 40 per cent being primary
prices.
residents and 60 per cent to 70 per cent being
second
home
buyers
—
both
Based on a selection of resale properties for sale in the Whistler area in 2019, the majority of listings for single-family homes by size range are
international and domestic.
available for below $520 per-square-foot on average, giving potential According
to
area
builders,
it
cost
buyers plenty of options to buy and renovate.
approximately $315 per-square-foot to build a new home four years ago, and has
There are many high-priced single-family options, but nearly 70 per cent
increased to nearly $520 per-square-foot in
of units in the condominium apartment/townhouse category is
2019. Much of that rise is contributed
to
comprised of dwellings below 1,500 square feet, with average prices of
more expensive additions to the building
$300,000 for units from 500 to 1,000 square feet and $450,000 for
code. The renovation sector in Whistler is
suites from 1,000 to 1,500 square feet.
33 Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
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33
Whistler
Percentage of Online Searches for Properties Listed for over $1 Million Dollars by Area
Source: Local Logic
“ The general fear of a recession kept a good amount of people from making purchases in 2019, but with increased consumer confidence, the market should see about half of the volume back in 2020. While it’s not likely we will see the record numbers of 2018, the market should get back to positive growth with price points inching up, especially in the higher-end market. ”
Engel & Völkers Whistler 3102 St. Anton Way, Whistler, BC
- Max Thornhill, License Partner Engel & Völkers Whistler
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Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
34
Whistler Forecast Property prices in Whistler are forecasted to grow by 0 to 3 per cent in 2020. Local Logic shows one of the most common lifestyle search terms used by prospective buyers in Whistler over the past six months was “primary schools”, indicating new families are seeking a long term residence in the area. With many millennials heading to Squamish, halfway between Vancouver and Whistler, Engel & Völkers anticipates this periphery market activity will help to accelerate growth in Whistler.
Distribution of Select Listings by Unit Size Range and Property Type (5,000 square feet or smaller), Whistler and Area, 2019
Source: MLS Listings Data provided by Engel & Völkers
Engel & Völkers Whistler 3855 Sunridge Court, Whistler, BC
35 Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
35
Banff
Market Overview Overall, Banff and its surrounding areas cater to both
living, while Canmore generally draws in ultra high net
recreational and long term living with its two distinct
worth homebuyers and maintains an open market
mountain regions: Banff and Canmore. Banff is an
attracting large groups of second and third home buyers
exclusive, luxury market with limited inventory, a prized
pursuing their dream of owning a mountain home.
location and distinct living regulations. On the other hand, Canmore and its surrounding areas are attracting many buyers with its new builds and growing recreational offerings. In 2019, the residential real estate market in Banff moved towards a buyer’s market. In recent years, the market has experienced a significant upswing, and 2019
Large mountain homes with timber elevations and large glass windows are trending within Canmore.
saw this curtail, finishing the year with a more subdued market in reaction to the mortgage stress test. Purchasing
An In-Depth Look
power has diminished slightly for resale homes under $1 million, strongly affecting the market. The luxury housing
Tourism continues to be the strongest driving force in
segment over $1 million has been slow to sell, with Local
Banff, as the Canadian dollar is low and skiing remains a
Logic data suggesting this represents about 5 per cent of
significantly popular recreational activity. Also contributing
the overall market. In the luxury segment, Banff tends to
to the local economy are a large number of business
draw in buyers seeking a lifestyle change for long-term
conferences introducing future buyers to the area. Unlike
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36
other markets in Alberta, Banff’s residential housing market is not nearly as impacted by the challenges facing the energy market or by other economic conditions seen in certain areas of Canada. This is in great part due to its closed location. While Banff’s investment properties drive its strong rental market, Canmore is primarily dominated by second and third home purchases especially for recreational use. Banff attracts prospective buyers from around the globe, including the United States and Europe. Due to its mountain culture, Europeans from Austria and Switzerland were among the first to settle there and they have continued to seek out high-end chalet and apartment-style properties for part-time use in Canmore. The majority of luxury properties listed between $1.3 and $2 million are purchased by affluent Americans and Europeans, while homes between $2 and $6 million are typically bought by business executives and/or commercial property owners. Large mountain homes with timber elevations and large glass windows are trending within Canmore.
Engel & Völkers Banff Canmore opened its shop in September 2019 and is poised to capture market share in the luxury segment. Engel & Völkers Banff Canmore 101 Lougheed Circle, Banff, AB
37 Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
37
Banff
Despite the desire for large homes, much of the available inventory in Banff and Canmore in 2019 consisted of smaller executive townhouses. About 26 per cent of listings on the market were for units from 1,000 to 1,500 square feet and another 26 per cent for units from 1,500 to 2,000 square feet.
Distribution of Select Listings by Unit Size Range (6,000 square feet or smaller), Banff and Canmore, 2019
Source: MLS Listings Data provided by Engel & Völkers
26% of listings on the market were for units from 1,000 to 1,500 square feet and another 26% for units from 1,500 to 2,000 square feet.
26%
38 Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
Engel & Völkers Banff Canmore 132 Eagle Terrace, Canmore, AB
Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
38
Banff & Canmore Forecast Engel & Völkers estimates Banff’s market prices could see a decline of 5 per cent maximum in 2020, presenting a favourable opportunity for buyers. With the market primarily tourism-driven, the strong demand to live in Banff and Canmore will always remain. Consumer confidence has stayed strong in the Banff market with buyers and sellers understanding that the market is not a booming metropolitan area nor heavily influenced by the oil and gas industry and other volatile consumer goods. This is expected to continue throughout 2020 as more up-and-coming residents consider calling Canmore and Banff “home”. The city is especially known for its scenic surroundings, recreational offerings, luxury amenities and abundant hospitality. Emerging neighbourhoods like The Three Sisters and downtown Canmore are transforming into hotspots due to the influx of new developments and an abundance of luxury amenities.
Engel & Völkers estimates Banff’s market prices could see a decline of 5% maximum in 2020, presenting a favourable opportunity for buyers.
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Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
39
Mont-Tremblant
Market Overview
An In-Depth Look
Mont-Tremblant has maintained a consistent position as a
The biggest factor behind the recent resurgence in the
buyer’s market for more than 15 years. In 2019, it held its
Mont-Tremblant market is the boom in the Montréal
strong position with less rapid gains than in years past.
housing market, which is just a 1.5 hour drive. As
Mont-Tremblant's close proximity to Montréal has prompted
consumer confidence in Montréal surges, a ripple effect
consistent climbing prices. The lack of a foreign buyers tax
has occurred with a run on secondary home sales in
coupled with low inventory and a high-demand resort
recreational markets within a 100 to 200 kilometer radius
amenity
top
of the city. Further impacting the market was the increase
recreational market. 2019 saw the biggest spike in activity
and implementation of non-resident taxes on buyers in
in the condo market, with Engel & Völkers attributing this to
Toronto and Vancouver. It should be noted the domestic
the availability of inventory and close proximity to the base
buyer hailing from Toronto, Montréal and Ottawa make up
of the mountain. Single family homes are scarce and in high
75 per cent of buyers in Mont-Tremblant. The remaining
demand, especially if they are in close proximity to town.
25 per cent hail from the U.S., the U.K., Mexico, Central
The past five years have seen several private schools
America and European countries.
are
positioning
Mont-Tremblant
as
a
develop, signalling a new cohort of young families calling Mont-Tremblant “home”.
Mont-Tremblant has maintained a consistent position as a buyer’s market for more than 15 years. 40 Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
40
Investors
comprise
a
small
portion
of
the
purchasers
in
Mont-Tremblant and are primarily cash flow buyers, but many are both end-users and investors (staying an average two weeks per year and renting the unit the remainder of the year). Mont-Tremblant has also experienced an increase in permanent residents who have bought several investment units to self-manage. Private real estate entrepreneurs have been looking to capitalize on local tourism, as they take advantage of the flexibility of owning a small number of units and the lower upfront financial requirement in comparison to luxury condo investments in Toronto and Vancouver.
Engel & Völkers forecasts the Mont-Tremblant market will see price growth from
4 to 7%. An area offering positive cash flow in Mont-Tremblant for investors is Versant Soleil, and it is clear that developers have taken notice. In early 2019, C Hôtels Tremblant announced an investment of approximately $45 million in a luxury hotel and spa complex at the foot of Versant Soleil. This condominium project with hotel management will be located a few steps away from the chairlift next to a private lake and Casino de Mont-Tremblant. This is poised to draw many investors into the already popular resort town for housing. These types of developments are a direct response to the spike in condo activity in recent years as people desire proximity to the resort town where there is available inventory. Condos make up most of the
Engel & Völkers Tremblant 905 Chemin Des Skieurs, Mont-Tremblant, QC
inventory available. Nonetheless, single family homes and executive townhouses are hugely popular due to their private, generous unit sizes and limited availability. Most of these ultra luxury homes are
41 Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
41
Mont-Tremblant
owned by baby boomers, but Gen X buyers are making a big impact. The older Gen Xers make up this market’s primary buyer segment, are 45+ and well-established. They have accumulated wealth, are still very active, and enjoy the resort town’s recreational lifestyle. With Alterra Mountain Company revamping Mont-Tremblant’s recreational facilities, the area is seeing a rising trend in new construction builds and developments as a result. Specifically, homes are being fabricated, transported and then assembled on-site. These builds have cleaner lines and larger glass windows with views of surrounding areas, bringing nature into the home.
Key Luxury Resale by Location and Square Footage, Mont-Tremblant, 2019
Source: MLS Listings Data provided by Engel & Völkers
In 2019, Engel & Völkers cited an average sales price of its sold listings at
Engel & Völkers Tremblant 262 Ch. Wheeler, Mont-Tremblant, QC
$930k and currently has more than 50 listings for sale over $1 million in Mont-Tremblant. 42 Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
42
Mont-Tremblant Forecast Engel & Völkers forecasts the Mont-Tremblant market will see price growth of 4 to 7 per cent.
Inventory is expected to continue to
decrease in 2020. Mont-Tremblant is the hottest it has been since 2007, with a strong demand for second homes. Construction activity has picked up, and there are a number of new projects currently on the market. This year, the market is expected to remain strong as buyers in the resale market continue the trend of acquiring older properties and undertaking significant renovations to bring the homes up to 2020 standards. Contemporary home designs boasting clean lines, large floor-to-ceiling windows and open concepts are becoming more and more desirable. It is predicted that this will continue to be a big part of the Mont-Tremblant market, as demand continues to exceed supply.
“ Consumer confidence is at an all-time high here. Those who buy have an affinity for the lifestyle and understand the attraction of living in a resort town. Mont-Tremblant has hit a stage of maturity and has become a place for long term living — especially for active baby boomers. ” - Steven Lafave, License Partner Engel & Völkers Tremblant
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Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
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44 Engel & Vรถlkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
Engel & Vรถlkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
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evrealestate.com ©2020 Engel & Völkers Canada, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Each brokerage independently is owned and operated. The information in this report is based on publicly available market data and as researched in cooperation with Bullpen Research & Consulting Inc. Actual results may vary and we cannot represent that the content is accurate or complete. This market report is provided for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Engel & Völkers Canada, Inc. and its affiliates do not assume any responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss or damage that may result from any use of, reliance upon, or reference to the information provided in this market report. This document is not an offering of a franchise, and where required by law, an offering can only be made 14 days after delivery of the applicable franchise disclosure document.
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Engel & Völkers Americas 2019 Canadian Market Report
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