Page 1

The 2017 Trader's

Playbook A guide For Conquering Financial Markets in 2017


Table of Contents

A World of Debt

Drowning in Oil

Central Banks' Liquidity

3 A world of Debt

7 The Fragmented Oil Market and

10 A Map of Interest Rates

4 $62.7 Trillion World Debt 5 Swimming in Debt 6 Swimming in Debt: The Play

Producers' Indebtedness 8 OPEC Members GDP Debt & Oil

11 Swimming in Debt - Future Debt to GDP 12 Swimming in Central Bank Liquidity: The Play

Production 9 Swimming in Oil: The Play 13

2

Strategies & Insights


A World of Debt United States Debt $19.85 Trillion

Euro Area

Debt $10.47 Trillion

China

Debt $5.51 Trillion

Japan

Debt $9.02 Trillion

AUSTRALIA

Debt $388.50 Billion

WORLDWIDE POPULATION

2015

7.4 Billion GDP 1.60% Inflation 1.70% Employment 152 Million

3

GDP 1.70% Inflation 0.60% Employment 153 Million

GDP 6.70% Inflation 2.30% Employment 775 Million

GDP 1.10% Inflation 0.10% Employment 65 Million

GDP 1.80% Inflation 1.30% Employment 12 Million

2016

7.5 Billion


$62.7 Trillion World Debt The Treskilling Yellow stamp

2016 2015

GLOBAL DEBT MAP

$57.5 Trillion

4

$62.7 Trillion

WHAT CAN YOU BUY WITH

$62.7 TRILLION?

$2.8 Million

The Great Pyramid

$5 Billion

iPhone black diamond edition

$16.6 Million

The Vatican

$15 Billion

Darby island, Bahamas Caribbean

$39 Million

Mark Zuckerberg

$50.1 Billion

405-foot Gigayacht

$140 Million

Bill Gates

$84.2 Billion

White House value

$300 Million

Anti-matter

$100 Billion

Airbus A380-800

$404 Million

The Great Wall of China

$100 Billion

Disneyland Florida

$1.3 Billion

The Moon

$180 Billion

Khalifa Tower

$1.5 Billion

Coca-Cola's enterprise value

$213 Billion

Space Shuttle Endeavor

$1.7 Billion

Eiffel Tower

$451 Billion

UK Crown Jewels

$2.5 Billion

China's yearly budget

$2.285 Trillion

THIS SHOPPING LIST ADDS UP TO JUST

$3.494 TRILLION

YOU STILL HAVE

$59.2 TRILLION TO SPEND


Swimming in Debt

n

n

$1,039 er

perso

n

perso

n

er

perso

RUB 9.36 Trillion $152.00 Billion

p

perso

er

RUSSIA

$2,648 p

n

n

n n

perso

$16,336 p

er

R 2.02 Trillion $144.34 Billion

$4,066 er

$22,469 p

perso

A$ 534.95 Billion $388.49 Billion

SOUTH AFRICA

¥ 38.34 Trillion $5.51 Trillion

p

er

p

perso

perso

CHINA

$3,356 p

er

er

AUSTRALIA

C$1.09 Trillion $815.30 Billion

$25,787

perso

T. 442.82 Billion $245.44 Billion

$13,570 p

p

perso

er

TURKEY

NZ$ 90.55 Billion $63.48 Billion

$12,437

5

perso

NEW ZEALAND

CHF 105.51 Billion $102.45 Billion

er

er

CANADA

€12.49 Trillion $13.11 Trillion

$30,812 p

SWITZERLAND

$61,493 p

p

perso

£1.65 Trillion $2.06 Trillion

n

$70,908

EURO ZONE

n

$19.85 Trillion

¥ 1.07 Quadrillion $9.02 Trillion

er

UK

n

US

n

JAPAN


Swimming in Debt: The Play GLOBAL CURRENCY WAR ENTERING ITS 6TH YEAR

By adding money to the money supply, existing money steadily loses value over time. The risk of devaluation is runaway inflation which requires rates to rise to fight this phenomenon

THE WINNERS: WINNERS FROM DEVALUATION WAR: Euro Area Australia Canada New Zealand Japan

LOSERS FROM DEVALUATION WAR: United States Russia Turkey South Africa 6

• USDCHF • USDCAD • USDRUB • USDTRY • USDZAR • USDJPY

THE LOSERS: • EURUSD • GBPUSD • AUDUSD • NZDUSD


The Fragmented Oil Market and Producers' Indebtedness

OPEC

US

RUSSIA

CHINA

CANADA

34.190 Million bpd

8.744 Million bpd

11.231 Million bpd

3.874 Million bpd

3.854 Million bpd

Debt-to-GDP: 21.11%

Debt-to-GDP: 104.17%

Debt-to-GDP: 17.70%

Debt-to-GDP: 43.90%

Debt-to-GDP: 91.50%

7


OPEC Members Debt-to-GDP and Oil Production SAUDI ARABIA

IRAN

IRAQ

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

KUWAIT

VENEZUELA

10.720 Million bpd

3.980 Million bpd

4.455 Million bpd

3.195 Million bpd

2.900 Million bpd

2.274 Million bpd

Debt-to-GDP: 5.90%

Debt-to-GDP: 16.36%

Debt-to-GDP: 37.02%

Debt-to-GDP: 15.68%

Debt-to-GDP: 7.10%

Debt-to-GDP: 49.80%

FORECASTED DEBT-TO-GDP:

FORECASTED DEBT-TO-GDP:

FORECASTED DEBT-TO-GDP:

FORECASTED DEBT-TO-GDP:

FORECASTED DEBT-TO-GDP:

FORECASTED DEBT-TO-GDP:

20%

13%

15%

20%

22%

21%

21%

18%

72%

2017 2018 2019 2020 GDP Debt Health Indicator

73%

79%

47.28%

82% 19.80%

20.60%

21.40%

22.32% 14%

14.30%

14.70%

40.85%

40.37% 30.10%

15.50%

2017 2018 2019 2020

2017 2018 2019 2020

2017 2018 2019 2020

2017 2018 2019 2020

2017 2018 2019 2020

GDP Debt Health Indicator

GDP Debt Health Indicator

GDP Debt Health Indicator

GDP Debt Health Indicator

GDP Debt Health Indicator

NIGERIA

LIBYA

ALGERIA

ANGOLA

QATAR

ECUADOR

1.782 Million bpd

0.575 Million bpd

1.184 Million bpd

1.688 Million bpd

0.646 Million bpd

0.544 Million bpd

Debt-to-GDP: 11.50%

Debt-to-GDP: 6.10%

Debt-to-GDP: 8.76%

Debt-to-GDP: 36.50%

Debt-to-GDP: 35.80%

Debt-to-GDP: 33.10%

FORECASTED DEBT-TO-GDP:

FORECASTED DEBT-TO-GDP:

FORECASTED DEBT-TO-GDP:

FORECASTED DEBT-TO-GDP:

FORECASTED DEBT-TO-GDP:

FORECASTED DEBT-TO-GDP:

13.50%

13.70%

13.20%

55% 12.80% 6.35%

6.49%

6.77%

6.57%

11.39%

11.65%

11.69%

57%

55%

50%

48%

45%

11.68%

2017 2018 2019 2020

2017 2018 2019 2020

2017 2018 2019 2020

2017 2018 2019 2020

GDP Debt Health Indicator

GDP Debt Health Indicator

GDP Debt Health Indicator

GDP Debt Health Indicator

8

47%

42%

2017 2018 2019 2020 GDP Debt Health Indicator

29.46%

29.12%

28.35%

29.10%

2017 2018 2019 2020 GDP Debt Health Indicator


Swimming in Oil: The Play

THE WINNERS: Prices forecast to stay low for extended period as inventories fill and supply imbalance remains

• European Union • United Kingdom • China

THE LOSERS:

• Russia • Canada • Norway • United States

9


A Map of Interest Rates LEGEND:

Positive Interest Rate Zero Interest Rate Negative Interest Rate

10


Swimming in Debt: Debt Future Debt-to-GDP US 106.00%

2017

107.00%

2018

CANADA

108.00% 108.00%

2019

2020

87.29%

2017

SWITZERLAND 34.08% 34.12%

2017

2018

11

2018

92.00%

90.00%

93.00% 89.40% 88.70%

2019

2020

2017

2018

2019

UK 94.05%

87.00%

87.80%

2020

2017

2018

85.00%

79.00%

2019

2020

TURKEY

CHINA

RUSSIA

34.15%

34.22%

30.50% 29.50% 29.10% 28.50%

55.43% 58.47% 62.48% 65.49%

21.20% 24.00% 20.20% 19.40%

2019

2020

2017

2017

2017

SOUTH AFRICA 51.70% 52.00%

51.00%

2017

2019

2018

93.10%

EUROPE

2019

2020

JAPAN

52.00% 236.00%

2020

2018

2017

239.00%

2018

2019

2020

AUSTRALIA

241.00% 243.00%

2019

2018

2020

39.68%

2017

39.92%

39.74% 39.39%

2018 2019

2020

2018

2019

2020


Swimming in Central Bank Liquidity: The Play

THE WINNERS: Monetary Policy as a Driver of Index Prices: ECB balance sheet expansion to benefit stocks. FED balance sheet shrinkage to hurt stocks.

12

• German DAX 30 • CAC 40

THE LOSERS:

• S&P 500 • Dow Jones Industrial Average • Nasdaq Composite


Strategies & Insights SWIMMING IN DEBT Currency wars present unique opportunities to take advantage of market conditions. The desire to remain competitive means the devaluation activities of many central banks are likely to continue. Countries that are expected to extend quantitative easing, asset purchases, and record low interest rates will likely meet further downward pressure on their currency throughout 2017. On the contrary, countries where rates are forecast to rise, will likely experience more bullish momentum in their local currency.

SWIMMING IN OIL Oil prices will remain volatile and sensitive if production continues to outpace demand. Although the OPEC deal has kept prices elevated, there are still many causes for volatility in oil futures. High degrees of volatility mean that overextended directional momentum provides excellent opportunities to take counter-momentum positions in oil futures. While there may be further upside in prices, oil production from unconventional sources will keep a lid on the potential gains over the long-term.

SWIMMING IN CENTRAL BANK LIQUIDITY How much money is added or removed from the money supply deeply impacts equities. Stock benchmarks will remain sensitive to central bank policies, especially for those with rates at or near record lows. Indices that are likely to outperform over the next year are those where central banks are keeping rates low or adding liquidity via quantitative easing and asset purchases. Stock benchmarks in countries or regions where liquidity is expected to be drained by rising interest rates are likely to underperform as investors rebalance their portfolios away from riskier assets like stocks.

13


Risk on Horizon BREXIT One of the major events of 2016, the real impact of the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union has not been truly absorbed. While short-term volatility and currency devaluation have subsided, the real test will be the UK’s official triggering of Article 50. Locally, businesses may suffer from uncertainty surrounding the negotiations, as access to the all-important European single-market will be a sticking point. The Pound could follow a similar trajectory to that seen immediately after the referendum. For the EU, losing a major economic powerhouse and easy access to the UK market could further stunt an already shaky economic recovery.

US POLITICS The election of Donald Trump as President of the United States has the potential to have deep impacts both at home and abroad. The effect of many of his proposals, from tax reform to infrastructure spending to reinstating protectionist policies is hotly debated, and could lead to rising debt, or to a stronger US manufacturing economy. Abroad, his political stare-down with China could have an impact on trade relations, and his potential repeal of important trade agreements could create volatility in global markets. The possibility of warmer ties with Russia could also impact on the country’s sanctions and relations with the West.

EUROPEAN ELECTIONS Europeans are beginning to voice their discontent with the European Union more loudly. Leading to the rise of several nationalist parties that promote leaving the EU. Important votes have shown rising anti-EU sentiment. With upcoming elections in France, Italy, Germany, and the Netherlands, anti-EU parties have the potential to rise to power causing instability in the region and worldwide, while weighing on the Euro.

14


Risk on Horizon SLOWING GROWTH IN EMERGING ECONOMIES China, once the darling of economic growth, saw its economy slow significantly in 2016 as a mountain of problems emerged including a potential housing bubble, accelerated capital outflows, and weak commodity prices. As a result, recovering growth seems a distant possibility for 2017. In India, the government’s recent decision to demonetize has already caused major economic shocks. The ramifications could be a major factor in slowing what has until now been an emerging market success story.

FEDERAL RESERVE POLICY After two years that saw two interest rate hikes from near-zero rates, the US Federal Reserve believes the economy is strong enough to withstand three rate hikes in 2017. While the US economy continues to exhibit positive tendencies, global currencies have already reacted negatively to the initial tightening, and currency pairs worldwide could be affected in 2017.

15


Welcome to Alvexo Alvexo is a professional forex broker and investment company, regulated with CySEC and specializing in trading within several global financial markets. Our mission is to provide the ideal balance of broker service that both educates and empowers clients to succeed in investing, regardless of their experience or resources. By using a unique and powerful combination of trading conditions, punctual support, accurate information, security, and of course our Trading Academy, we are happy to report that we have succeeded in our mission.

Why Invest with Alvexo?

Live Customer Support

Leverage and Spreads

The Trading Academy

The Platform

Tools

No matter your experience: you will find the right combination to succeed in investing when you trade with Alvexo.

Our team consists of true market veterans who are always available to assist with any issues.

Unique combination of videos, articles and an executive broker are available to you from day one to teach effective trading strategies.

Daily analyses, trading signals, market trends, weekly reviews and more. All provided by the industry’s most talented analysts.

16

The highest leverage at 400:1 and the narrowest spreads in the market put the power behind your trades.

A cutting-edge platform designed to simplify trading for all, available in many forms including mobile, web, MT4 and more.


If you’d like to read our other eBooks or enjoy our wide selection of educational videos visit

www.alvexo.com

17

Trader's 2017 Playbook  
Read more
Read more
Similar to
Popular now
Just for you