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Eighteenth State of the Nation Report on Sustainable Human Development (2011)


State of the Nation Program Sustainable human development Knowledge as a public asset

Principles:  Academic rigor  Social legitimacy  Broad disclosure

2012 85 investigators

271 workshop participants

91 activities 4750 participants Joining social networks

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Monitoring system Aspirations

3

Trends

Social equality and integration

Harmony with nature

Sustainable Human Development Opportunities, stability and economic solvency

Year

Strengthening democracy

Evidence


4

Social equality and integration

Issues in depth First analysis of 2011 Census Situation of senior citizens Progress on reforms in CCSS

New issues Educational profitability in regions Fulfillment of employment benefits in the job market

Territorial gaps in educational access and achievement


5

Progress on Free Zone Law (2009) Economic policy of the exchange rate regime

Issues in depth Territorial analysis of production Sectoral study of MiSMEs

Opportunities, stability and economic solvency

Fiscal exemptions

New issues


6

Issues in depth

Harmony with nature

Estimation of ecological equilibrium

Territorial regulation impact New measurement of forest cover

New issues Noise pollution Emerging pollutants Water footprint Risk map and UBN


7

Citizen demand for legislation

New measurement of citizen support 17 years of social protest Disparities in local development Cabinet stability and experience

Judicial Branch as political actor

Issues in depth

Fulfillment of goals in combating corruption

New issues

Strengthening democracy


New contributions Challenge to political parties and citizenry Cultural production Rights of indigenous peoples

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Cultural production

Institutions

Cultural offering

Public policy

• Institutional framework dispersed and weak • Growing public budgets

• Strong expansion • Concentración in the GMA • Independent sector: difficulties

• Production of events • Stewardship of heritage

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Enforceability of indigenous rights

Living conditions

• General improvement in living conditions • Gaps with non-indigenous • Gaps between territories

Laws and institutions

• International instruments • Few recent advances • 24 direct and 44 indirect institutions

Protection of rights

• 9 rights investigated • Non-systematic information • Not possible to evaluate

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Findings

In 2011‌ Growth and stability Society, environmental management and political system in problems

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Consequence:

Style of development and democracy did not achieve‌ solid progress in human development

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A country in deep transformation An urban society

Lower growth and migration

72.8%

Higher school attendance Nearly universal coverage:

59,0% 50,4%

• Literacy (97.6%)

40,6%

• Water (97%) • Electricity (98.9%)

1973

1984

2000

Source: INEC population census.

2011

13


Moderate economic recovery Evolution of IMAE

14

Free zones and private investment

10% 8%

Low inflation and stable interest rates

6% 4%

2% 0%

Average real income:

-2%

+4.3%

-4%

Source: Prepared using BCCR data.

Abr-12

Ene-12

Oct-11

Jul-11

Abr-11

Ene-11

Oct-10

Jul-10

Abr-10

Ene-10

Oct-09

Jul-09

Abr-09

Ene-09

Oct-08

Jul-08

Abr-08

Ene-08

-6%

87,000 new jobs


Violent crime low for a second year Intentional homicide victim rate (per 100,000 inhabitants) 25

20 15 10 5

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

0

Total

Men Hombres

Source: Prepared using data from the Department of Statistics of the Judicial Branch.

Mujeres Women

15


Strength maintained in the green agenda

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Forest cover. 2010

ASP 3.873 has

Growth in protected Cobertura forestal 2010: area (marine) 52% Recovery of forest 2.292cover especies

de fauna More resources for conservation Humedales

52,3%

Source: Fonafifo, 2012.


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But not all the news is good‌


Fifteen years with no progress on poverty

Total poverty Pobreza total

2011

2009

2007

2005

2003

2001

0% 1999

boys, girls and adolescents (1 out of 3)

1997

45% of the poor are

10%

1995

32.7%

20%

1993

Brunca Region:

30%

1991

persons

40%

1989

1,140,435

18

Extreme extrema poverty Pobreza

Source: Sauma, 2012, using data from EHPM and Enaho of INEC.


Growing inequality in income Comparison of average household income 25

Veces

20

15 10

2011

5 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Tenth decile (richest 10%) versus theelfirst decile(10% (poorest Décimo decil (10% más ricos) versus primero más10%) pobres) Quinto quintil(richest (20% más ricos) versus primero más20%) pobres) Fifth quintile 20%) versus the el first quintile(20% (poorest Source: Prepared using data from EHPM and Enaho of INEC.

Income of the poorest

20%: -7.2%

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Insufficient growth and employment inequality

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Change in number of employed. 2011

Not compensated:

workforce jobs lost (crisis)

Trade Comercio Construction Construcci贸n Public administration Administraci贸n p煤blica

High unemployment:

Transport and Transporte y comunicaciones communications

7.7%

Inmobiliarias y empresariales Real estate and business

[7.9% in 2009]

Industria Industry

Sector financiero Financial sector

Informal work sector: +6,7% Other: +4,6%

Agricultura Agriculture Turismo Tourism -15.000

0

15.000

30.000

45.000

Source: Rosales, 2012, using data from Enaho, of INEC.


1 of every 5 wage earners with no employment benefits

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Percentage of wage earners with paid employment benefits. 2011

December bonus

80%

Brunca 64%

Sick day pay

Paid vacations

Hazardous duty pay

71%

74%

68%

Brunca & Chorotega

Brunca 58%

Brunca & Chorotega

56%

55%

Overtime

54%

Brunca 35%

Source: Prepared using data from Enaho 2011, of INEC.


Welfare State support is “out of gas� Central Government Finances

National debt 40% of 2008 GDP

(millions of colones)

4.000.000

45% of 2011 GDP

3.500.000 3.000.000 2.500.000 2.000.000

Tax burden High HDI: +4.9% GDP Proposals: 0.4% GDP

1.500.000 1.000.000 500.000 0 -500.000

CCSS 2007-2011:

-1.000.000

2006

2007

2008

Primary outcome Resultado primario

2009

2010

Total revenues Ingresos totales

Expenditures without interest Gastos sin intereses Source: Garita, 2012, using data from STAP.

2011

Actual Revenue: 5.5% Actual Expense: 8.6%

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Real public social investment falling

Totalreal realtotal PSI ISP

2010

2008

2006

0 2004

200 2002

50

2000

400

1998

100

1996

600

1994

150

1992

800

1990

200

1988

1.000

1986

250

1984

1.200

1982

300

1980

Education: -7.4% per person

Total (miles de millones de colones)

Universal and selective programs: more affected

1.400

Per capita (000s of colones)

Real public social investment, total and by inhabitant (Year 2000 colones)

2011: -1.6% per person 2006-09: +25%

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Perreal capital PSI ISP perreal cรกpita

Source: Trejos, 2012, using information from STAP, BCCR, CGR, INEC and CCP-UCR.


Unsustainable patterns and ecological debt Ecological footprint and biocapacity. 2011 (global hectares per person) 2,0

27% CO2

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Ecological footprint Main stimulus: energy

1,5

59% Transport 1,0

Higher thermal generation in 15 years: 9.5%

0,5

0,0 Huella ecol贸gica Ecological footprint Otros Otherusos uses

Biocapacidad Biocapacity Carbon fixation Absorci贸n de carbono

Source: Fern谩ndez, 2012, using data from INEC, Sepsa, DSE, ONF and FAO.

Water footprint 31% overuse


Territorial mismanagement increases environmental fragility

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Cantons that have regulatory (zoning) plans. 2011.

33 cantons without regulation 1982 GMA Plan: contained the

worst Conflict Prugam-Potgam

Source: ProDUS-UCR, 2012b.


Chaos in transport creates noise pollution

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Severe Significant Moderate Metropolitan Seat

Severe: hospitals educational centers

San JosĂŠ: 5 times the proper level for oral communication Source: Araya, 2012.


Political system: no clear way forward 3 Branches Instability in the Cabinet

27

Only 1 of every 10 laws demanded by public opinion is approved Legislation 2011-2012

Demanded

Poor quality and legislative gridlock

Judicial: public conflicts

Approved Not approved

10 64

Source: G贸mez-Campos & Murillo, 2012.


Support to democracy at record low

Index of average support to the political system in Costa Rica. 1978-2012 95

85

75

65

55

45 1978 1980 1983 1985 1987 1990 1995 1999 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: Prepared using data from Lapop.

28


More widespread social unrest Number of collective actions (632 protests in 2011) 800

600

400

200

0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Figueres

RodrĂ­guez

Acciones Collective colectivas actions

Source: Preparation based on RamĂ­rez-Alfaro, 2012.

Pacheco

Arias

Annual average Promedio anual1995-2011 1995-2011

Chinchilla

29


An unfortunate situation?

Dual economy creates gaps Political system: more campaign promises, less fulfillment Erosion of public administration

30


Territorial concentration of production Production concentrated in 10 cantons

Low (44 cantons) Medium (27 cantons) High (6 cantons) Very high (4 cantons)

Source: Matarrita, 2012, using data from BCCR, Procomer, MEIC.

31


New economy: public policy focus, little emphasis on employment

32

Evolution of the employed population, by type of economy. 2001-2011

65% 55%

45% 35% 25%

15% Vieja economĂ­a Old economy

Nueva economĂ­a New economy

Servicios de apoyo Support services

Source: Prepared using data from EHPM and Enaho.


Territorial gaps in educational achievement Population 20 to 64 years old completing secondary education or higher. 2011

Source: Arias & Sรกnchez, 2012, using information from the 2011 Population and Housing Census and ProDUS-UCR.

33


More and better legislation, but no resources for enforcement

34

Laws passed in second legislatures. 1991-2012 50

80% 70%

68%

60%

Pledges unfulfilled

40

50%

30

40% 20

30% 20%

10 10% 0

0% Calderón Fournier 19911992

Figueres Olsen 1995-1996

Rodriguez Echeverría 1999-2000

Substantivesustantiva legislation Legislación Source: Gómez-Campos & Murillo, 2012.

Pacheco de la Arias Sánchez Espriella 2003- 2007-2008 2004

Chinchilla Miranda 2011-2012

Percentagelegislación of pledgedenlegislation Porcentaje promesa democrática

PIB cayó -1,1% Not improved with the Alliance in the Directorate


Difficulty in solving white collar cases Percentage of cases concluded with effective resolution

Institution Comptroller General of the Republic [Resolutions]

Office of Public Ethics [Recommendation]

Deputy Attorney General of Probity [Accusation]

Source: Institutional proceedings.

2007

2011

42%

61%

[591]

[702]

25%

21%

[71]

[140]

12%

1%

[302]

[393]

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Four transitions‌

Toward‌ Unsustainability of the Welfare State Economic uncertainty Abandonment of environmental priority Vacuum in negotiation and leadership

36


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Time to demand and get ‌

fact-based and verifiable answers


For the fifth time‌

Report in the pre-election season Challenges based on data and research Political responsibility and participation

38


Evaluation of electoral choices

39

Knowledge for raising the quality of political deliberations Participation of informed citizens 17 challenges 66 questions


40

Social equality and integration

Reducing poverty Reversing income inequality Improving public social investment Ensuring sustainability of the social security system Reducing insecurity (even more)


41

Reducing income inequality

Support? How? Rising minimum wage policy

Concentration

-7.2% income of the poorest (2011)

1 in 5 with no job benefits

Strengthening job inspection More fiscal contribution from people with higher incomes


42

Promoting productivity and employment Improving State solvency and efficacy

Opportunities, stability and economic solvency

Confronting exchange rate regime risks


43

Productivity

gaps

59% in traditional economy and less skilled jobs Policies weak and scattered

Promoting productivity and employment

Specifically Development bank Institutional reorganization Alternatives for people who do not quality for INA Innovation in non-dynamic sectors Formalization of businesses


44

Modifying unsustainable patterns Protecting water and marine wealth Managing chaos in the territory Contain growing environmental conflict

Harmony with nature


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How and with what specific steps?

Modifying unsustainable patterns

Dependence on fossil fuels

Transport sector planning

Ecological debt

Stagnation in clean energy

Regulate high environmental impact agriculture

Transport: 59% of nation’s energy

2011: more fossil fuels for electricity


46

Accountability in political financing Improving quality of political representation

Combating corruption Give support to rights Strengthening public administration

Strengthening democracy


47

Acceptable? Multi-party Cabinet

40-60% with no party Multi-party system Gridlock

Non-partisans in key positions

Failed agreements

Public bids for executive presidencies Strengthening public administration


48

Breaking the inertia of the events‌


Time for pro-human development reforms Hindering and delaying decisions Risk of stifling the drivers of development

No more easy money Improvements depend on deep reforms

Broad social and political dialogue Active role of the citizenry

Quality policy deliberation

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2014 Ordinary elections‌

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