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The current situation of the SHP sector in the EU

Petras Punys & Tomas Sรถderlund Brussels 12 February


Contents The presentation is based on the SHERPA study finished in year 2008. 1st PART (Tomas Sรถderlund) 1.State of the Art (2006) 2.SHP Potential in the EU 3.EU Directives and their impact on SHP 4.Support systems 5.Economics 6.Conclusions and recommendations 2nd PART (Petras Punys) 1.SHP general Policy framework 2.SHP and Environment 3.SHP Manufacturing industry 4.Social acceptance 5.Conclusions and recommendations


State of the Art RES-E in the EU-27, 2006 (percentage of GWh) 487215 GWh

17%

Large Hydro Small Hydro

1% 1% 55%

Wind 17% Biomass PV Geothermal 9%


SHP Potential in the EU Electricity Generation 2006 and Potential for SHP with Economic and Environmental Constraints 30000 25000

GWh

20000 15000 10000 5000 0 AT BE DK FI FR DE EL IE IT LU NL PT ES SE UK BG CY CZ EE HU LV LT MT PL RO SK SI HR MK TR NO CH BA ME

2006

Upgrading

New SHP


EU Directives and their impact on SHP RES-E Share in gross electricity consumption 100 90 80 70

%

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 AT BE DK FI FR DE EL IE IT LU NL PT ES SE UK BG CY CZ EE HU LV LT MT PL RO SK SI

1997

2006

RES-E % target in 2010

E U27


Support systems

Feed-in tariffs

Quota obligation

AT CY CZ DK EE ES FR BG DE GR HU IT NL LT LU PT LA SI SK IE

BE IT SE RO PL UK

Certificate systems

DK

Tenders

UK FR

MT

SI

FI

Fiscal incentives


Wind offshore Wind onshore Tide & Wave Solar thermal electricity Photovoltaics

Current market price

Economics Cost range (LRMC)

PV 340 to 1260 €/MWh

Large Hydro Small Hydro Geothermal electricity Biowaste (Solid) Biomass (Solid) Biomass co-firing Biogas 0 50 100 150 200 Costs of electricity (LRMS – Payback time: Lifetime) [€/MWh]


Conclusions and recommendations State of the art (year 2006) •The SHP contribution to the overall RES-E in the EU is nearly 10 %. •The SHP can highly contribute in reaching the targets of the RES Directives. SHP Potential in the EU •The electricity production from SHP in the EU can double from the level of year 2006 taking environmental and economical constraints in consideration. •Most likely the potential is larger than is known today. •More careful examinations should be performed in the EU countries to evaluate the true SHP potential (good examples can be found from Scotland and Norway)


Conclusions and recommendations cont. •EU Directives and their impact on SHP •The directive is very important for the development of SHP •Follow up to what extent the Directives has been implemented to reduce the obstacles to increasing production and to rationalise and speed up administrative procedures. According to this study there are still many obstacles and not much have changed. •Support systems •Support systems is absolutely necessary for existing SHP and the development of new SHP. •Economics •SHP is very competitive to other RES-E. •All RES-E need support system to be able to compete with established electricity production and the price in the market.


Policy framework

Environmental law

Energy law

Granting procedures

LEGAL FRAMEWORK

Power pricing

Water rights


Classification of barriers

Administrative and regulatory

Market barriers

Main barriers for the development of SHP

Environmental barriers

Most crucial

Grid related barriers

Social barriers

Financial barriers


Scenarios: existing and improved conditions Scenarios for SHP 20000 18000

MW

16000 14000 12000 10000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 EU-27 improved conditions EU-27 Observed data

EU-27 existing conditions


Environment Environmental Integration - Resistance to SHP development EU-27 & CC Visual impact

Fishery

Water regulation

Environmental Regulation

Competition with other uses

Other kinds of resistance

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% AT

BE DK

FI

FR DE EL

IE

IT

LU* NL

PT

ES SE UK BG CY* CZ EE HU LV

*Information not available due to too small number SHPP

LT MT* PL RO SK

SI

HR MK TR


Manufacturing industry Classification of SHP Turbine Manufacturers EU-27 & CCs 5

4

3

2

1 AT

BE

DK

FI

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

FR

DE

EL

IE

IT

LU

NL

PT

ES

SE

UK

BG

CY

CZ

EE

HU

LV

LT

no turbine manufacturers turbine manufacturers exist, but are not able to cover domestic demand turbine manufacturers exist, are able to cover domestic demand w ith limited export capacities turbine manufacturers exist, are able to cover domestic demand w ith some export capacities turbine manufacturing industry is w ell developed, w ith high export capacities

MT

PL

RO

SK

SI

HR

MK

TR


Social acceptance NGOs

General public

Politicians

Environm. Groups

RES- support groups

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0% AT

BE

DK

FI

FR

DE

EL

IE

IT

LU*

NL

PT

ES

SE

UK

BG

CY*

CZ

EE

HU**

LV

LT

MT*

PL

RO

SK

SI

HR

MK

*Information not available due to too small number SHPP

NGOs: opposition (F, IT, PT). Positive (AT, DE,SE, PL, MK)

General public: reserved (AT, UK, MK), positive (DE, IE,BG,PL, HR)

Politicians: positive (DK, FR, IT, PT, SK, HR), less active (EL, PL)

Environ. bodies: big opposition (ES, FR), positive (AT, BE,FI, EL, UK, PL, RO)

TR


Conclusions and recommendations Long term •Decrease barriers •Decrease the barriers for developing SHPP by setting up clear rules and timeframes in the licensing process. •Support the manufacturing industry by increasing the research of finding new, more efficient and more environmental friendly ways to generate electricity from hydropower. This in order to secure that the SHP manufacturing industry will still be international competitive in the future.


Conclusions and recommendations cont.

Finally it is of vital importance that the Commission gives concrete guidelines in order to follow the development towards the renewable targets of year 2020.


For further information:


Country overview on SHP (SHERPA Project Report) 32 European countries are represented

(6 to 10 p.)

1. Geography and Water Resources 2. Current Energy Sector 3. Renewable Energy Sources RES-E Supporting Policies; RES Targets; SHP Status within RES-E Generation Mix

4. Current SHP Data and Potentials Current Status and Forecasts; Potentials

5. SHP General Policy Framework Legal Conditions and Support Policy; Impact of EU Directives

6. SHP Sector Development Economic Issues; SHP Manufacturing Industry; Technological Advancements; Environmental Integration and Social Acceptance; Barriers for SHP Development

Available at: http://www.esha.be


/Petras___Tomas_FINAL1