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TRANSITION: DUWAMISH GROWING INTO A NEW PRODUCTIVE LANDSCAPE

ERIN GARNAAS-HOLMES // LA8201 EVERYWHERE NOWHERE: DUWAMISH // DECEMBER 2012


COMPETING WEST COAST PORTS

LAND USE CHANGE IN DUWAMISH NEIGHBORHOODS 1996-2006

NON-INDUSTRIAL LAND USE

LAND CONVERTED TO INDUSTRIAL USE

PRINCE RUPERT

SEATTLE TACOMA

OAKLAND

LOS ANGELES

LONG BEACH

LAND CONVERTED FROM INDUSTRIAL USE

LAND CONTINUING INDUSTRIAL USE

DECLINING GROWTH OF THE PORT

KING COUNTY EMPLOYMENT GROWTH LOS ANGELES

2 MILLION

6

The Duwamish Valley is Seattle’s industrial and manufacturing heart. The region employs over 100,000 people, and together with the Port of Seattle, drives over 10% of Seattle’s economy. The valley’s current land use

reflects its raw productive power. It is a swath of industrial infrastructure with few residential pockets. The river it straddles has was channelized long ago. The valley is facing huge changes, however. With

increasing land use conversion pressure from Downtown Seattle and increased local demand that the river’s ecology be restored and respected, land use will certainly change in the future.

MILLION TEU

LONG BEACH

4

2

1 MILLION

OAKLAND SEATTLE PRINCE RUPERT

EMPLOYMENT IN NON-INDUSTRIAL SECTORS

TACOMA EMPLOYMENT IN INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 0

1990

2012

1990

2012


PEAK OIL

CLIMATE CHANGE

2,795

Gigatons of fossil fuels currently in stock, ready to be burned

Past Oil Discovery Future Oil Discovery Liquid Fuel Production

+2째C +0.8째C

(Maximum Acceptable Limit)

1930

1990

2050

(Recent Increase)

565

Gigatons of fossil fuels (Approx. 16 years at current rate)

The external pressures of housing demand and competition from other West Coast ports will prove to be minimal, however, in comparison to the bigger challenges Seattle has to face. The colliding realities of diminishing fossil fuel resources and increased government reaction to the consequences of climate change will have drastic effects on the industries of the Duwamish valley. Oil will become prohibitively expensive and reserved only for the most crucial of purposes (i.e. medical devices). Many industrial firms in the valley will collapse as the world realizes it must evolve into a new energy paradigm. With the hard truths of a changing climate and peak oil, the valley will evolve dramatically into an even more productive but exceptionally more healthy landscape.


Credit Advertising Individual Ownership Growth Economy Monoculture Hyper-Consumption Super-Human Scale

P2P

This Third Industrial Revolution shifts production to the individual level, building resilience into cities. The production of other resources, like energy and food, will follow suit. Redundancy and scalability of production will reduce the net cost of production (including negative externalities like environmental destruction) and will reduce the vulnerability of these systems to large changes.

REGION

DWELLING

Material Production Public Space Energy Production Ecological Habitat Food Production Social Interaction

Consumption

REGION

DWELLING

Material Production Public Space Energy Production Ecological Habitat Food Production Social Interaction

Consumption Material Production Public Space Energy Production Ecological Habitat Food Production Social Interaction

1.5B

Reputation Community Shared Ownership Cyclical Economy Permaculture Collaborative Consumption Human Scale Internet Users

1990

2012

and yard-shares are growing. Websites dedicated to DIY guidance and technologies like 3-D printing have the capacity, in the future, to devolve global supply lines. Scarcity will encourage people to consume less in general, and technology and information will enable people to build or repair many of the things they need to survive.

% of data

2012

2060

The collapse of an oil-based economy will destroy the growth economy based on consumption and production as we know it. Instead, a new paradigm rises, catalyzed primarily by the exponential growth of the internet. The free flow of information through the internet has already inspired new examples of an economy of sharing. Services like bikeshares, car-shares, room-shares,


Vegetation

Vegetation

Vegetation

Vegetation

Vegetation

Industrial

Industrial

Industrial

Industrial

Industrial

Mixed use

Mixed use

Mixed use

Mixed use

Mixed use

Residential

Residential

Residential

Residential

Residential

Transportation

Transportation

Transportation

Transportation

Transportation

Water

Water

Water

Water

Water

Vegetation Industrial Mixed use Residential Transportation Water

2012

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

Over the next 50 years, we will see three major trends in the changing land use patterns; repurposing of the industrial fabric, increase in public transit, and expansion of vegetative cover and ecological habitat.

will be converted into work/ live spaces, shared production facilities, repair shops, 3-D printing studios, market and barter plazas and more. With a rise in population and in cost of development, high density and adaptive reuse of the landscape will be commonplace.

of Seattle’s transportation system. With the rise in oil costs, owning a personal vehicle will simply become inconceivable. Light rail transit will expand and connect the existing residential communities within the valley (Georgetown, South Park) as well as the newly formed live/work complexes. With the decrease in car use, the pavement of roads themselves will be salvaged

for new construction, reducing standard roads to the minimum size for emergency vehicles. Rail transportation, bicycle use and pedestrian traffic will become commonplace. Goods and people will travel via the same modes, as mass production will disappear and no longer require massive cargo ships and freight vehicles.

Catalyzed by the EPA mandated cleanup in 2013 and augmented by a growing global understanding and valuing of environmental health, the river valley will begin to be restored to a functioning ecology. Stormwater control will be required, and vegetative cover in general will increase across the valley. Use of standard technology like green roofs and

rain gardens will be mandated by policy. Eventually, a bird’s eye view of the valley may look more like a forest with pockets of plazas and tendrils of roads, rather than a swath of grey with pockets of trees.

Industrial lands will, in general, be replaced with a new form of productive use. Warehouses and light industrial buildings

These new communities will be linked with a drastic expansion


The Duwamish River Valley will continue to thrive as a productive corridor. Instead of an industrial nightmare and toxic environment, however, the valley will be healthy, sustainable and resilient. This new landscape will grow from the adaptation of existing infrastructure. Adaptive reuse, dense infill development and vegetated “greenfill� will leave no square foot of land unproductive. Urban agriculture, rooftop agriculture and salmon farms can produce enough food for 25% of the population in a site like this. Solar, wind, and tidal energy can provide over 100% of the 1 MW required for these dwellings by 2012 standards. Green roofs and stormwater street plantings can absorb and filter every drop of rain that falls, preventing any sediment or particles from flowing into the river. The new urban forest is capable of sequestering almost 12,000 tons of carbon dioxide each year, 100% of estimated total emissions per capita by 2012 standards for a site like this. By 2060, with new standards for high density and energy efficiency, this landscape will produce more energy than it requires and absorb more carbon dioxide than it emits.


A

A’ Saltwater crops like Salicornia bigelovii provide food

PV panels capture energy

Salmon farm provides food

Tidal lagoon generates passive energy from high tide

15’

High tide levels used for irrigation Softened river edge absorbs flooding and tidal flux

Fish effluent fertilizes saltwater crops

30’

B

B’

Rooftop agriculture provides food.

Wind

Windmills capture energy

PV panels generate energy and provide shade

Green roofs capture stormwater

Human-scale manufacturing or repair of products and art, traded in market

Trees absorb stormwater

Barter and market spaces sell and trade food or materials produced locally.

Disused products are recycled into new materials.

Organic waste is returned to urban/roof farms.

15’

C

C’

30’

D

D’

Green roofs insulate homes and absorb stormwater

Streets provide market spaces to sell locally grown food

Taller plants on North side of street allow sun for pedestrians and shade homes

Wind Windmills capture energy 20’

40’

20’

40’

PV panels capture energy

Urban agriculture provides food. Street swales absorb excess stormwater, remediate water quality, direct flow


With the devolution of the hegemony of private property and an increase in collaborative consumption and sharing economies, the line between private and public space will become blurred. Spaces for agriculture, energy production, or machine repair also become places for recreation, leisure or social interaction.

The new landscape of the valley will embrace the natural features that define it. The Duwamish river, rising slowly with melting polar icecaps caused by climate change, will be embraced and allowed to literally enter into the most public spaces. The ebb and flow of the tides, floods caused by storms and the migration patterns of salmon runs will become rhythms in the life of this place.


FARM

BOAT +16.5

BOAT LAUNCH

GREEN ROOF RETENTION

RIVER TIDE/ FLOOD

+16.5

FARM

D’

D

PED

STREET RETAINED FOR PUBLIC SPACE

RAIL

FOOD PROCESSING

SALMON FARM SALTWATER CROPS

INFILTRATION ALONG SWALES

BIKE

DUWAMISH RIVER

RAIL

+14.5

ARTS CENTER

+16.5

CIRCULATION

STORMWATER

TIDAL BAY/ FLOOD BASIN

GARDEN +BS 10.5

FARM

17

TS 16.5 +

RIVER WALK B’

LOW TIDE

B

OPEN GREEN SPACE

HIGH TIDE

TRANSIT STATION PLATFORM

ROOFTOP AGRICULTURE

COMMUNITY CENTER

MARKET/ PERFORMANCE SPACE

PUBLIC MATERIALS LIBRARY

FARM

17

MIXED USE/RETAIL 12

17

14

BOAT LAUNCH

PUBLIC PRIVATE

17

LARGE PUBLIC WORKSHOP SPACE

SMALLER PUBLIC WORKSHOP SPACES

FOOD PROCESSING/BOAT REPAIR A’

A

PUBLIC OPEN

MARKET SPACE

FARM

C’

C

8

TERRACED GREEN ROOFS NEW ALTERED GREEN RESIDENTIAL STREET

CO2 ABSORPTION

FOOD

SALTWATER CROPS

PUBLIC PRODUCTIVE

ENERGY

SALMON FARM FARM

LIVE/WORK/STUDIO/SHOP 10

FOOD+ ENERGY

LIVE/WORK/STUDIO/SHOP LIVE/WORK/STUDIO/SHOP RIVER WALK

PRODUCTIVITY

PUBLIC SPACE

N

30’

60’


Š Erin Garnaas-Holmes, 2012 www.eringh.com

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Transition: Duwamish  

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