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California Statewide Likely Voter Survey September 2011


Methodology

2

Telephone interviews conducted in English and Spanish  602 completed interviews statewide among likely November 2012 election voters

Margin of error +/- 4.0%

Survey Dates  September 12-15, 2011


Support for Same-Sex Couples to Marry Do you favor or oppose allowing same-sex couples to be legally married? 60%

51% 44% 12% 40%

20%

38%

5% Somewhat Oppose Strongly Oppose Somewhat Favor Strongly Favor

39%

5% 0% 3

Favor

Oppose

Unsure


Support for Same-Sex Couples to Marry Differences by Completed Interview, Terminated Interview, and Combined Strongly Favor

Somewhat Favor

Strongly Oppose

Somewhat Oppose

Unsure

Refused

60% 50%

51% 44%

12% 40%

40%

5%

10%

20%

38% 39% 30%

13%

40%

43%

6%

6%

38% 38%

34%

10% 10% 5%

4%

2%

1% 0% 4

Completed

Terminated

Combined


Support for Same-Sex Couples to Marry Party Differences by Complete/Terminate Strongly Favor

Somewhat Favor

Strongly Oppose

Somewhat Oppose

Unsure

Refused

80%

65%

62% 59%

60%

57% 54%

40% 40% 40%

35%

33%

30% 25%

24%

20% 12% 8% 2% 1%

0%

5

13% 8%

10% 10%

8% 3% 2%


Support for Same-Sex Couples to Marry: Compared to 2009 Do you favor or oppose allowing same-sex couples to be legally married? 55% 51% 50%

48%

47%

44%

45%

40%

38%

40% 39%

35%

35%

30% Total Favor 6

Strongly Favor Total Oppose

Strongly Oppose

May 2009 Sept. 2011


Attitudes about Same-Sex Marriage Over Time Likely Voters

Favor

Oppose

60%

55%

53% 51%

50%

49%

49%

48%

51%

49% 45%

47%

45% 44%

45%

45% 42%

40% March 2009 (F)

7

45%

44%

42%

March May 2009 March July 2010 Sept 2010 May 2011 Sept 2011 2009 (P) 2010 (P) (F) (P)

(F) – Field Poll data, based on registered voters: Approve/disapprove allowing same-sex couples to marry members of their own sex and have regular marriage laws apply to them? (P) – PPIC data: Favor/oppose allowing gay and lesbian couples to be legally married? Other data points: Favor/oppose allowing same-sex couples to legally marry?


Legally Marry, Civil Unions, or No Recognition 60%

41% 40%

31% 22% 20%

5% 0% Allowed to legally marry 8

Not be allowed to legally marry, but should be allowed civil unions

No legal recognition

Unsure


Legally Marry, Civil Unions, or No Recognition: Compared to 2009 60%

40%

39%

41%

42%

31% May 2009 Sept. 2011

22% 20%

15% 4% 5%

0%

Allowed to legally marry 9

Civil unions

No legal recognition

Unsure


Marriage/ Civil Union Breakdown Based on two-way and three-way marriage questions 60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

22%

10%

8%

0% Favor Favor marriage/allowed marriage/favor to marry civil union

10

Oppose marriage/favor civil union

Oppose marriage/no recognition

Unsure/other


Summary: Marriage Amendment Votes 0%

20%

Allow marriage licenses for same-sex couples

40%

40% 36%

60%

10% 9%

49%

45%

6% Make marriage legal for same-sex couples

12% 49% 6% 46%

38% 40%

5% Ballot title: Allow marriage licenses…and protect religious freedom

33% 30%

14% 10%

47%

40%

13% Informed vote: make marriage legal

38% 42%

10% 48% 5% 46%

38% 42%

47% 9% 5% 47%

6% Final vote: make marriage legal 6% Def Yes 11

Prob/Lean Yes

Def No

Prob/Lean No

Unsure


Initial Marriage Amendment Votes Differences by Completed Interview, Terminated Interview, and Combined Def Yes

Prob/Lean Yes

Def No

Prob/Lean No

Unsure

Refused

60%

49% 45% 10%

43% 9%

40%

49%

49% 9%

38%

48%

46% 44%

45%

12% 6%

11% 7%

9%

12%

10%

36%

6%

20%

5%

40%

40% 36% 31% 32%13%

38% 40%

35%

37% 38% 30%

6%

5%

45%

13% 7%

5% 2%

1%

33%

4%

5% 2%

1%

0% Completed 12

Terminated

Combined

Allow marriage licenses for same-sex couples

Completed

Terminated

Combined

Make marriage legal for same-sex couples


Ballot Title: Allow Marriage Licenses for Same-Sex Couples and Protect Religious Freedom Initiative Constitutional Amendment Differences by Completed Interview, Terminated Interview, and Combined Def Yes

Prob/Lean Yes

Def No

Prob/Lean No

47%

40%

14%

Unsure

Refused

47% 40%

36%

14%

37%

10% 7%

38% 10%

8%

20% 33%

16% 30%

29%

33%

29%

29%

11%

11%

11%

3%

2%

0% 13

Completed

Terminated

Combined


Firm Yes, Firm No, Movers 40%

37%

35% 29%

20%

0%

14

Firm Yes

Firm No

Movers

Answer Yes on ALL marriage amendment votes

Answer No on ALL marriage amendment votes

Do not consistently answer Yes/No on marriage amendment votes


“Same-Sex” vs. “Gay and Lesbian” Couples For you personally, which phrase is more comfortable to hear? 60%

53%

40%

35%

20%

9% 0% Same-Sex Couples 15

Gay and Lesbian Couples

No Difference


“Same-Sex� Couples More Comfortable For you personally, which phrase is more comfortable to hear? 0% Overall

20%

40%

60%

35%

Asian

55%

Latino

53%

Spanish language

67%

Catholic

44%

Attend church monthly

44%

Attend church on holidays

49%

Weak Yes: allow marriage licenses

49%

Weak No: Allow marriage licenses Firm Yes on all votes Movers on all votes Civil unions Favor marriage/civil union 16

80%

47% 40% 36% 41% 49%


Born vs. Choice vs. Made 47% true for most

27%

People are born gay/lesbian

20%

29% untrue for most

18%

32%

People choose to be gay/lesbian

19%

40%

13%

23%

16%

23%

People are made gay/lesbian as a result of life 7% experiences

True for all 17

True for some

16%

True for a few

18%

11%

24%

43%

28%

18%

Untrue for some

25% Untrue for any


Rights for Same-Sex Couples 0% Allow same-sex couples to have the same rights and benefits as married heterosexual couples have, when it comes to things like taxes, pensions, inheritance and hospital visitation

20%

40% 58%

16%

16% 5% 22% 5%

44% Allow same-sex couples to legally adopt a child

60%

27%

15%

58%

7% 33%

8% Def Should 18

Prob Should

Def Should Not

Prob Should Not

Unsure

80% 73%


Agreement with Statements Ranked by strongly agree

Issues about gays and lesbians should be discussed at home, not in public schools. Same-sex marriage goes against my religious beliefs. Same-sex couples should be allowed to legally marry, as long as clergy, churches, and other religious groups don’t have to violate their religious beliefs. Same-sex marriage is morally wrong. My church's teachings about homosexuality are an important part of why I feel the way that I do about samesex marriage. Personally, I feel torn about whether or not same-sex couples should be allowed to legally marry. 19

STRONGLY AGREE

TOTAL AGREE

STRONGLY DISAGREE

TOTAL DISAGREE

UNSURE/ REFUSED

50%

65%

18%

29%

6%

38

47

38

47

6

35

52

32

41

7

35

43

40

51

6

25

37

42

54

9

12

23

61

73

3


Likelihood of Happening & Concern 31% Children will be taught about SSM in school

6%

17% not likely

11%

33%

21%

32%

Legal SSM will make parents uncomfortable; don’t know how to explain to kids

Children may become confused; think they are gay even though they are not

20

12%

22% 6%

79% likely to happen

48%

54% concerned 44% not concerned 55%

17% not likely

11% 22%

24%

35% 18%

35%

20%

22%

26%

21% 39%

Definitely happen Definitely not happen Great deal concern Not at all concern

77% likely to happen

46% concerned 16% 51% not concerned 53% likely to happen 42% not likely 47% concerned 11%

50% not concerned Very/somewhat likely Not likely Somewhat concern Little concern


Likelihood of Happening & Concern Continued Religious organizations will be forced to engage in conduct that violates beliefs

15%

33%

22% 25%

23%

45% not likely

17%

42% concerned 11% 53% not concerned

42%

7% Bigamy or polygamy could become legal too

14%

21% likely to happen 47%

22%

9%

27%

74% not likely

31% concerned

55%

21

48% likely to happen

Definitely happen Definitely not happen Great deal concern Not at all concern

11%

66% not concerned

Very/somewhat likely Not likely Somewhat concern Little concern


Reasons to Vote Yes for Legal Marriage Ranked by very important reason to vote Yes

Love is love, and getting married is about making that special vow in front of family and friends, and making a lifetime commitment to be there for each other through better or worse, in sickness and in health. It's only fair to let committed same-sex couples have the happiness, responsibility, and security of marriage that other people have. Core values for people of faith are that we are all God's children, to love your neighbor as yourself and not to judge others. Gay and lesbian people are our neighbors, our friends and family, and our co-workers. We should allow committed same-sex couples to marry and build their lives together, for better or for worse, just as other couples are able to. 22

VERY IMP TOTAL IMP NOT MORE NO YES YES REASON

FALSE/ NOT TRUE

36%

51%

21%

17%

5%

35

51

22

17

4


Yes Reasons Continued Ranked by very important reason to vote Yes Having legal marriage for same-sex couples is an inevitable change that is already happening across the nation. It's now legal in six states including Iowa, New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, and in the District of Columbia. Americans are opening their hearts and minds, and we should make it legal here in California, too. This ballot measure would allow same-sex couples to be legally married. At the same time, it will not change religious marriage or how each religion defines marriage, and it protects the rights of religious groups that do not want to perform or recognize same-sex marriages. Having to talk with kids about gay and lesbian relationships makes some parents nervous. But the truth is, kids are kids, and you can just talk to them at their own level and give them age-appropriate answers. If they ask, you can simply explain that when two people love each other, they want to get married and make a lifetime commitment to each other. It's that simple.

VERY IMP TOTAL IMP NOT YES YES REASON

MORE NO

FALSE/ NOT TRUE

33%

48%

24%

20%

4%

32

48

23

18

6

*Top reason among some key targets

30

48

25

17

5


Yes Reasons Continued

Ranked by very important reason to vote Yes Our schools barely have time to teach the basics. It's parents who teach their children their own morals and values at home, as they should. Parents will be able to teach their kids right from wrong whether or not same-sex marriage becomes legal.

24

VERY IMP TOTAL IMP NOT MORE NO YES YES REASON

27%

47%

25%

17%

FALSE/ NOT TRUE

6%


Reasons to Vote No Against Legal Marriage Ranked by very important reason to vote No Allowing gay marriage has had real consequences in states where it is legal. In Massachusetts, Catholic Charities ended ALL of its adoption services rather than be forced to place children with gay married couples. And second graders in public school were taught that boys can marry boys and girls can marry girls - and when parents tried to opt their child out of those lessons, the court ruled parents had no right to do so. If same-sex marriage is legal in California, then the public schools will end up teaching children as young as kindergarten that homosexual marriage is the same as marriage between a man and a woman and have to answer kids’ questions about gay sex. Gays and lesbians have a right to live as they choose, but they don’t have the right to redefine marriage for the rest of us. We need to protect traditional marriage as only between a husband and a wife. Otherwise morals and values will decline and it will be even harder to raise our families and protect our children.

VERY IMP NO

TOTAL NO

NOT REASON

MORE YES

FALSE/NOT TRUE

44%

58%

21%

5%

8%

42

54

26

6

10

41

52

27

8

8

39

51

28

7

11


FAIR Education Act Initial FAIR Question: The FAIR Education Act, signed into law in July 2011, requires public schools in California to incorporate factual information about the historical role of lesbian and gay people, people of color, and people with disabilities into existing social studies lessons. It also prohibits the State Board of Education from adopting discriminatory instruction or materials based on sexual orientation. Informed FAIR Question: OPPONENTS say this law puts politics into the classroom by requiring schools to use new textbooks that promote a pro-homosexual and pro-transgender lifestyle in grades K-12. These new textbooks will cost taxpayers too much money, and parents cannot opt their children out of this anti-family values curriculum. SUPPORTERS say under this law, schools will teach fair, accurate and ageappropriate lessons that include all people regardless of race, gender, sexual orientation, religion or disability. Teachers, parents, and school boards will approve appropriate lessons locally. Having fair and accurate social studies lessons helps teach our kids respect for all kinds of people and also helps reduce bullying. 26


FAIR Education Act 0% Initial FAIR Support

20% 29% 33%

40%

60% 45%

16%

42%

9%

13%

Informed FAIR Support

29%

37%

44%

15%

9%

46%

10% Strongly Favor 27

Somewhat Favor

Strongly Oppose

Somewhat Oppose

Unsure


Know or Work with LGBT Do you personally know or work with anyone who is gay or lesbian? 60%

51% 45% 36%

40%

21%

19%

20%

2% 0% Acquaintance

28

Co-worker

Close friend

Family member

Self

No, don't know anyone

California Statewide Likely Voter Survey  

California Statewide Likely Voter Survey

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