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DAILY I FOREX REPORT 12TH JULY 2013

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HEADLINES  US Dollar Plummets, Euro Breaks $1.30 As Bernanke Boosts S&P 500  US Dollar and Fed Policy - Perception vs. Reality

The US Dollar tumbled in overnight trade, losing as much as 1.5 percent on average against its top counterparts, as Asian markets responded to yesterday’s “dovish” commentary from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. The central bank chief pushed back against speculation about a near-term reduction of QE, reminding investors that the “overall thrust” of policy remains highly accommodative. Bernanke added that inflation and job growth trends signal that more Fed stimulus is needed.

TRADING TIPS  BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.3150 TGT 1.3170/1.3190 SL 1.3120

Minutes from June’s FOMC policy meeting seem to illuminate the impetus behind the Fed Chairman’s tone. Officials debated including specific language about the fate of the asset purchase program in the policy statement but ultimately felt it was too difficult to “convey succinctly the desired information.” As such, much of the discussion focused on how Bernanke ought to explain the central bank’s intentions in the press conference following the sit-down, with most participants stressing that he should: Make clear that any changes to the asset purchase program remained highly conditional on an ongoing assessment of the economic outlook. Strike a clear distinction between “tapering” and “tightening”, stressing that there is likely to be a significant time lag between the end of QE and an increase in the benchmark lending rate.

 SELL USDJPY BELOW 98.50 TGT 98.30/98.10 SL 98.80

 BUY GBPUSD ABOVE 1.5175 TGT 1.5195/1.5215 SL 1.5145

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In retrospect, those FOMC members who feared that “stating an intention to slow the pace of asset purchases...might be misinterpreted as…the initial step toward exit from the [Fed’s] highly accommodative policy stance” proved correct.Indeed, the mass liquidation of QE-linked bets in the aftermath of June’s FOMC meeting suggests the markets interpreted the Fed’s posture as having shifted significantly toward the hawkish side of the spectrum. With that in mind, today’s comments from Mr Bernanke represent not an about-face in the Fed’s thinking but an attempt to realign the markets’ perceptions. The reality of the Fed’s intentions has not changed, but volatility in asset prices since Bernanke spoke shows that the markets’ perception of those intentions is undergoing significant reassessment. More of the same seems likely to ahead. European shares are on racing higher in early morning trade and S&P 500 futures are up by nearly a full percentage point as traders cheer the prospect of longer-lasting Fed support. A quiet economic cal

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 HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0030(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 40 (BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.10(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>44(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0002(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>63(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0004(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>47(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS USD INDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0138(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>37(BEARISH SIGNAL)


ECONOMIC CALLENDER Date

Time

Sun Jul 7

Mon Jul 8

Currency

Event

Importance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

23:50

JPY Trade Balance BOP Basis (Yen) (MAY)

Medium

-¥906.7B

-¥902.1B

-¥818.8B

23:50

JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (MAY)

Low

¥623.3B

¥600.0B

¥852.7B

23:50

JPY Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (JUN)

Low

2.2%

2.3%

2.1%

23:50

JPY Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (JUN)

Low

1.9%

1.9%

1.8%

23:50

JPY Current Account Balance (YoY) (MAY)

Low

58.1%

91.6%

100.8%

23:50

JPY Current Account Total (Yen) (MAY)

Low

¥540.7B

¥600.0B

¥750.0B

01:30

AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (JUN)

Low

-1.8%

-2.5%

02:35

NZD REINZ House Sales (YoY) (JUN)

Low

0.0%

7.5%

02:35

NZD REINZ Housing Price Index (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.0%

0.7%

02:35

NZD REINZ Housing Price Index (JUN)

Low

3685.8

3686.9

04:30

JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

-8.0%

-9.0%

05:00

JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (JUN)

Medium

53.0

55.5

55.7

05:00

JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (JUN)

Medium

53.6

55.7

56.2

05:45

CHF Unemployment Rate (JUN)

Medium

2.9%

3.0%

3.0%

05:45

CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (JUN)

Medium

3.2%

3.2%

3.2%

06:00

EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (MAY)

Medium

13.1B

17.8B

18.0B

06:00

EUR German Current Account (euros) (MAY)

Low

11.2B

14.8B

16.7B

06:00

EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (MAY)

Low

-2.4%

0.1%

1.4%

06:00

EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (MAY)

Low

1.7%

0.0%

1.2%

07:15

CHF Industrial Production (YoY) (1Q)

Medium

3.0%

1.4%

1.7%

08:30

EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (JUL)

Medium

-12.6

-11.4

-11.6

Notes


Tue Jul 9

10:00

EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (MAY)

Medium

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.9%

10:00

EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (MAY)

Low

-1.0%

-0.5%

2.0%

12:30

CAD Building Permits (MoM) (MAY)

Low

-5.0%

10.5%

13:00

EUR Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels

High

13:00

EUR ECB's Draghi Speaks in Brussels

Medium

13:00

IMF Releases EuroArea Article IV Statement

Medium

14:30

CAD Bank of Canda Senior Loan Officer Survey (2Q)

Medium

-5.0

-5.8

14:30

CAD Business Outlook Future Sales (2Q)

Medium

30

24

19:00

USD Consumer Credit (MAY)

Medium

$12.500B

$11.058B

21:00

USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

Low

22:00

NZD NZIER Business Opinion Survey (2Q)

Medium

22:45

NZD NZ Card Spending - Retail (MoM) (JUN)

Medium

22:45

NZD NZ Card Spending (MoM) (JUN)

Medium

23:01

GBP RICS House Price Balance (JUN)

Medium

8%

5%

23:01

GBP BRC Sales LikeFor-Like (YoY) (JUN)

Low

1.9%

1.8%

23:50

JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD (YoY) (JUN)

Low

3.4%

3.4%

23:50

JPY Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (JUN)

Low

2.9%

2.8%

00:00

NZD QV House Prices (YoY) (JUN)

Low

01:30

CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN)

High

2.5%

2.1%

01:30

CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUN)

High

-2.6%

-2.9%

01:30

AUD NAB Business Confidence (JUN)

Medium

-1

01:30

AUD NAB Business Conditions (JUN)

Low

-4

06:00

JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (JUN P)

Medium

-7.4%

07:15

CHF Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (MAY)

Medium

3.3%

23

0.6%

0.5%

0.6%

7.1%


08:30

GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY)

Medium

-1.5%

-0.6%

08:30

GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (MAY)

Medium

-1.5%

-0.5%

08:30

GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (MAY)

Medium

-£2600

-£2579

08:30

GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (MAY)

Medium

-£3480

-£3414

08:30

GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (MAY)

Medium

-£8485

-£8224

08:30

GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (MAY)

Low

0.2%

0.1%

08:30

GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (MAY)

Low

0.4%

-0.2%

11:30

USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (JUN)

Low

94.7

94.4

12:15

CAD Housing Starts (JUN)

Medium

188.0K

200.2K

14:00

GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (JUN)

High

0.6%

14:00

USD JOLTs Job Openings (MAY)

Low

3757

23:50

JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (MAY)

23:50

23:50

Wed Jul 10

Medium

0.8%

0.0%

JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.0%

0.1%

JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY) (JUN)

Low

1.2%

0.6%

CNY New Yuan Loans (JUN)

High

800.0B

667.4B

Medium

$27.80B

$20.43B

CNY Aggregate Financing (JUN)

Low

1400.0B

1190.0B

CNY Exports (YoY)% (JUN)

Low

3.9%

1.0%

CNY Foreign Reserves (JUN)

Low

$3485.0B

$3440.0B

CNY Imports (YoY)% (JUN)

Low

6.2%

-0.3%

CNY Money Supply M0 (YoY) (JUN)

Low

10.5%

10.8%

CNY Money Supply M1 (YoY) (JUN)

Low

10.8%

11.3%

CNY Money Supply M2 (YoY) (JUN)

Low

15.2%

15.8%

CNY Trade Balance (USD) (JUN)

00:30

AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (JUL)

Medium

4.7%


00:30

AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (JUL)

Low

102.2

05:00

JPY Consumer Confidence Index (JUN)

Low

45.7

06:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (YoY) (JUN F)

High

1.9%

1.9%

06:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN F)

High

1.8%

1.8%

06:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (MoM) (JUN F)

Medium

0.1%

0.1%

06:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUN F)

Medium

0.1%

0.1%

11:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (JUL 5)

Low

14:00

USD Wholesale Inventories (MAY)

Low

0.3%

0.2%

14:00

USD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (MAY)

Low

0.6%

0.5%

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUL 5)

Low

-10347K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (JUL 5)

Low

-2418K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (JUL 5)

Low

-1719K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (JUL 5)

Low

2.0%

18:00

USD Fed Releases Minutes from Jun 18-19 FOMC Meeting

High

20:10

USD Fed's Bernanke Speaks on Economic Policy in Boston

High

22:00

NZD ANZ Truckometer Heavy Traffic (JUN)

Low

4.7%

22:30

NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (JUN)

Medium

59.2

22:45

NZD Food Prices (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.3%

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (JUL 5)

Medium

-짜965.9B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (JUL 5)

Medium

-짜38.9B

23:50

JPY Machine Orders (YoY) (MAY)

Medium

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (JUL 5)

Low

짜261.8B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (JUL 5)

Low

짜479.7B

LIVE

-11.7%

2.8%

-1.1%


23:50

Thu Jul 11

01:00

JPY Machine Orders (MoM) (MAY)

Low

JPY Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement

High

JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (JUL 11)

High

JPY BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target (JUL 11)

Medium

짜270T

AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (JUL)

Medium

2.3%

1.7%

-8.8%

AUD Employment Change (JUN)

High

0.0K

1.1K

AUD Unemployment Rate (JUN)

High

5.6%

5.5%

01:30

AUD Full Time Employment Change (JUN)

Medium

-5.3K

01:30

AUD Part Time Employment Change (JUN)

Low

6.4K

01:30

AUD Participation Rate (JUN)

Low

02:00

JPY Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (%) (JUN)

Low

8.33

06:00

EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (JUN)

Low

-0.4%

06:00

EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (JUN)

Low

-0.1%

06:30

JPY Kuroda Holds Post-Meeting Press Conference

High

08:00

EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report

High

12:30

CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (MAY)

Medium

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 6)

Medium

340K

343K

12:30

CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (MAY)

Low

0.2%

0.2%

12:30

USD Continuing Claims (JUN 29)

Low

2958K

2933K

12:30

USD Import Price Index (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.0%

-0.6%

12:30

USD Import Price Index (YoY) (JUN)

Low

0.5%

-1.9%

14:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (JUL 5)

Low

15:00

USD Fed's Tarullo Testifies on Regulation to Senate Banking

Low

18:00

USD Monthly Budget Statement (JUN)

01:30 LIVE

01:30 LIVE

Medium

65.2%

65.2%

2.0%

72

$40.0B


Fri Jul 12

JPY Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for July

High

USD Fed's Plosser and Bullard Speak in Wyoming

Low

01:30

AUD Home Loans (MAY)

01:30

AUD Investment Lending (MAY)

Low

1.1%

01:30

AUD RBA Credit Card Balances (MAY)

Low

$A49.4B

01:30

AUD RBA Credit Card Purchases (MAY)

Low

$A21.6B

01:30

AUD Value of Loans (MoM) (MAY)

Low

-0.9%

03:00

NZD Non Resident Bond Holdings (JUN)

Low

69.1%

04:30

JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY F)

Medium

-1.0%

04:30

JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (MAY F)

Low

1.6%

04:30

JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (MAY F)

Low

2.0%

08:30

JPY Construction Output (YoY) (MAY)

Low

-1.1%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (MAY)

Medium

-1.4%

-0.6%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (MAY)

Low

-0.3%

0.4%

12:30

USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

1.6%

1.7%

12:30

USD Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

2.1%

1.7%

12:30

USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.1%

0.1%

12:30

USD Producer Price Index (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.5%

0.5%

13:00

CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (MoM) (JUN)

Low

1.1%

13:00

CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (YoY) (JUN)

Low

2.0%

13:00

CAD Teranet/National Bank HP Index (JUN)

Low

155.39

USD U. of Michigan Confidence (JUL P)

High

USD Fed's Williams Presents a Monetary Policy Paper in Vancouver

Low

13:55 LIVE

21:15

Medium

2.2%

85.0

0.8%

84.1


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Daily i forex report by epic research 12 july 2013