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DAILY I FOREX REPORT 31st JULY 2013

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HEADLINES  Aussie Dollar Sinks As Soft Data Boosts RBA Rate Cut Bets  Aussie Slammed as RBA Rate Cut Odds Jump; Euro Steady After Spanish GDP

ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP

TRADING TIPS  BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.3300 TGT 1.3320/1.3340 SL 1.3270

 SELL USDJPY BELOW 97.60 TGT 97.40/97.20 SL 97.90

 SELL GBPUSD BELOW

The Japanese Yen, the Swiss Franc, and the US Dollar – the “safe haven” bloc – are among the top performers for the second day in a row as global risk aversion gathers pace once more ahead of several significant events that will reverberate across the FX landscape. Consequently, high beta and risk-correlated assets such as the Australian Dollar are getting slammed today; the Aussie has lost over -2% to the US Dollar since Friday’s close. The impetus for today’s slide in the Aussie comes on the back of the worst Building Approvals since August 2012, and the sharp downturn seen from April-June (+35.0% to -13.0% y/y) is very reminiscent of housing data seen at the end of 2008. While there was a 44% chance of a 25-bps rate cut at the end of the July meeting week, there is now a 92% of a 25-bps rate cut for the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting this coming Tuesday. In the event of a rate cut next week, I still believe that the RBA will cut rates one more time in 2013, to bring the main rate to 2.00%. Accordingly, the Australian Dollar selloff might not be finished despite the consolidation seen in the AUDUSD the past month-plus. Elsewhere, the Euro’s case for a strong week was bolstered as the Spanish GDP (2Q A) report beat expectations slightly, affirming the mild uptick in data seen in May and June. This week, the Euro could be a top performer if the cards fall right; next up is the ECB on Thursday.

1.5300 TGT 1.5300/1.5280 SL 1.5330

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 HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0030 (BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 60(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.10(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>39(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0002(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>39(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>72(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS USD INDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARIISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0138(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>38(BEARISH SIGNAL)


ECONOMIC CALLENDER Date

Time

Sun Jul 28

05:55

CNY Leading Index (JUN)

23:01

Mon Jul 29

Currency

Event

Importance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Medium

99.55

99.72

GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (JUL)

Low

0.3%

0.4%

23:01

GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

1.3%

0.8%

23:50

JPY Large Retailers' Sales (JUN)

Medium

3.5%

3.6%

-0.4%

23:50

JPY Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

Low

-0.2%

0.8%

1.5%

23:50

JPY Retail Trade (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

1.6%

2.1%

0.8%

03:30

JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks at Research Insitute of Japan

High

08:30

GBP Net Consumer Credit (JUN)

Medium

0.5B

0.7B

0.8B

08:30

GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (JUN)

Low

1.0B

0.7B

0.5B

08:30

GBP Mortgage Approvals (JUN)

Medium

57.7K

59.7K

58.1K

08:30

GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.1%

0.2%

0.0%

08:30

GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY) (JUN)

Low

1.5%

08:30

GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (JUN)

Low

4.7%

4.4%

4.4%

10:00

GBP CBI Reported Sales (JUL)

Low

17

10

1

14:00

USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (JUN)

Low

-1.0%

6.7%

14:00

USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

11.5%

12.5%

14:30

USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (JUL)

Low

7.3

6.5

21:00

USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

Low

22:45

NZD Building Permits (MoM) (JUN)

Low

-0.1%

1.3%

Notes


Tue Jul 30

23:30

JPY Household Spending (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

1.3%

-1.6%

23:30

JPY Jobless Rate (JUN)

Medium

4.0%

4.1%

23:30

JPY Job-To-Applicant Ratio (JUN)

Low

0.91

0.90

23:50

JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN P)

Low

-1.5%

1.9%

23:50

JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN P)

Medium

-2.9%

-1.1%

01:30

AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (JUN)

Low

2.0%

-1.1%

01:30

AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

0.0%

-3.2%

04:00

JPY Vehicle Production (YoY) (JUN)

Low

-6.2%

05:00

JPY Small Business Confidence (JUL)

Medium

49.6

06:00

EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (AUG)

Medium

6.9

6.8

EUR Spanish GDP (QoQ) (2Q A)

Low

-0.1%

-0.5%

EUR Spanish GDP (YoY) (2Q A)

Medium

-1.8%

-2.0%

07:00 LIVE

07:00 LIVE

08:30

GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (JUL)

Low

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (JUL)

Low

92.5

91.3

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (JUL)

Low

-0.54

-0.68

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (JUL)

Low

-10.2

-11.2

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (JUL F)

Medium

-17.4

-17.4

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Services Confidence (JUL)

Low

-8.9

-9.5

12:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUL P)

Medium

0.3%

0.1%

12:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL P)

High

1.7%

1.8%

12:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (MoM) (JUL P)

Medium

0.3%

0.1%

12:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (YoY) (JUL P)

High

1.8%

1.9%

12:30

CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.1%

0.0%

12:30

CAD Raw Materials Price Index (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.3%

0.2%

36


13:00

USD S&P/CS 20 City s.a. (MoM) (MAY)

Low

1.5%

1.7%

13:00

USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (MAY)

Low

12.4%

12.1%

13:00

USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (MAY)

Low

14:00

USD Consumer Confidence (JUL)

High

23:01

GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (JUL)

Low

23:05

GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JUL)

Medium

23:15

JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (JUL)

Medium

52.3

23:50

JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (JUN)

Low

2.06%

USD Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting

High

01:00

NZD ANZ Business Confidence (JUL)

Low

50.1

01:00

NZD ANZ Activity Outlook (JUL)

Low

45

01:30

JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (JUN)

Low

0.1%

0.0%

01:30

AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.3%

0.3%

01:30

AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

2.9%

3.0%

03:00

NZD Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JUN)

05:00

JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

16.0%

14.5%

05:00

JPY Annualized Housing Starts (JUN)

Medium

0.982M

1.027M

05:00

JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (JUN)

Low

06:00

EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.2%

0.8%

06:00

EUR German Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

0.5%

0.4%

06:00

CHF UBS Consumption Indicator (JUN)

Medium

07:00

CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (JUL)

Medium

1.22

1.16

07:55

EUR German Unemployment Change (JUL)

High

0K

-12K

07:55

EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. (JUL)

High

6.8%

6.8%

Wed Jul 31

152.37

81.0

81.4

-0.2%

-19

-21

6.2%

Low

26.0%

1.46


08:00

EUR Italian Unemployment Rate (JUN P)

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (JUL A)

09:00

Medium

12.3%

12.2%

High

1.2%

1.2%

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

1.6%

1.6%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (JUN)

Medium

12.2%

12.1%

11:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (JUL 26)

Low

12:15

USD ADP Employment Change (JUL)

Medium

12:30

USD Bureau of Economic Analysis Release Annual Revisions of GDP

Medium

12:30

CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (MAY)

12:30

12:30

-1.2%

180K

188K

Medium

0.3%

0.1%

CAD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (MAY)

High

1.6%

1.4%

USD Employment Cost Index (2Q)

Low

0.4%

0.3%

USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (2Q A)

High

1.0%

1.8%

12:30

USD Personal Consumption (2Q A)

Medium

1.6%

2.6%

12:30

USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (2Q A)

High

1.0%

1.2%

12:30

USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (2Q A)

Medium

1.1%

1.3%

13:00

USD NAPM-Milwaukee (JUL)

Low

52.0

51.6

13:45

USD Chicago Purchasing Manager (JUL)

Medium

54.0

51.6

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUL 26)

Low

-2825K

14:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (JUL 26)

Low

-2060K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (JUL 26)

Low

-1389K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (JUL 26)

Low

-1227K

18:00

USD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision (JUL 31)

High

23:30

AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (JUL)

Medium

49.6

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (JUL 26)

Medium

짜549.3B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (JUL 26)

Medium

-짜56.7B

12:30 LIVE

0.25%

0.25%


Thu Aug 1

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (JUL 26)

Low

짜790.3B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (JUL 26)

Low

짜349.8B

00:00

AUD RPData/Rismark House Px (MoM) (JUL)

Low

1.9%

JPY Official Reserve Assets (JUL)

Low

$1238.7B

01:00

CNY Manufacturing PMI (JUL)

High

01:00

AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (JUN)

01:30

AUD Import Price Index (QoQ) (2Q)

Low

2.0%

0.0%

01:30

AUD Export Price Index (QoQ) (2Q)

Low

0.3%

2.8%

01:45

CNY HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI (JUL)

Medium

47.7

48.2

05:00

JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) (JUL)

Low

-15.8%

06:30

AUD Commodity Index (JUL)

Low

88.9

06:30

AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (JUL)

Low

-10.5%

07:45

EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL)

Low

49.7

49.1

07:50

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL F)

Low

49.8

49.8

07:55

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL F)

Medium

50.3

50.3

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL F)

Medium

50.1

50.1

08:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL)

Medium

52.8

52.5

GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (AUG 1)

High

0.50%

0.50%

GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (AUG)

High

375B

375B

11:30

USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (JUL)

Low

4.8%

11:30

USD RBC Consumer Outlook Index (AUG)

Low

50.7

EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (AUG 1)

High

0.50%

0.50%

Medium

0.00%

0.00%

11:00 LIVE

11:00 LIVE

11:45 LIVE

11:45 LIVE

EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (AUG 1)

49.8

50.1

1.6%

Medium


12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 27)

12:30

USD Continuing Claims (JUL 20)

12:58

Medium

344K

343K

Low

3000K

2997K

USD Markit US PMI Final (JUL)

Medium

53.2

14:00

USD Construction Spending (MoM) (JUN)

Medium

0.4%

0.5%

14:00

USD ISM Manufacturing (JUL)

High

52.0

50.9

14:00

USD ISM Prices Paid (JUL)

Medium

54.0

52.5

14:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (JUL 26)

Low

21:00

USD Total Vehicle Sales (JUL)

Low

15.80M

15.89M

21:00

USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (JUL)

Low

12.40M

12.43M

23:50

JPY Monetary Base (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

36.00%

23:50

JPY Monetary Base End of period (JUL)

Medium

짜173.1T

GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (JUL)

Low

0.6%

GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (JUL)

Low

3.7%

01:30

AUD Producer Price Index (QoQ) (2Q)

Low

0.3%

01:30

AUD Producer Price Index (YoY) (2Q)

Medium

1.6%

06:00

GBP Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (JUL)

Low

0.4%

0.3%

06:00

GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

3.1%

1.9%

07:30

CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (JUL)

Medium

52.5

51.9

08:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (JUL)

Medium

51.5

51

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.0%

-0.3%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

0.3%

-0.1%

USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (JUL)

High

185K

195K

Fri Aug 2

12:30 LIVE

41

12:30

USD Change in Private Payrolls (JUL)

Medium

187K

202K

12:30

USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (JUL)

Low

0K

-6K


USD Unemployment Rate (JUL)

High

12:30

USD Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (JUL)

Medium

12:30

USD Change in Household Employment (JUL)

Medium

160

12:30

USD Underemployment Rate (JUL)

Medium

14.3%

12:30

USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (JUL)

Low

0.2%

0.4%

12:30

USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

2.2%

2.2%

12:30

USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (JUL)

Low

34.5

34.5

12:30

USD Personal Income (JUN)

Medium

0.4%

0.5%

12:30

USD Personal Spending (JUN)

Medium

0.5%

0.3%

12:30

USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.4%

0.1%

12:30

USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (JUN)

Low

1.3%

1.0%

12:30

USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.1%

0.1%

12:30

USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

1.1%

1.1%

12:30

USD Personal Income and Spending Annual Revisions

Low

13:45

USD ISM New York (JUL)

Low

14:00

USD Factory Orders (JUN)

Medium

16:15

USD Fed's Bullard Speaks on U.S. Economy in Boston

Low

01:00

CNY Nonmanufacturing PMI (JUL)

Medium

12:30 LIVE

Sat Aug 3

7.5%

7.6%

47

2.3%

2.1%

53.9


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Daily i forex report31 july 2013  
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