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DAILY I FOREX REPORT 7TH MARCH 2013

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HEADLINES

 Forex: AUD/USD Breaks Higher As Dow Hits Record, Wait On ECB For EUR/USD  Pound Falls Below 1.50 As US Dollar Corrects Earlier Losses

TRADING TIPS  SELL EURUSD BELOW 1.3025 tgs 1.3005/1.2985 sl 1.3055

 SELL USDJPY BELOW 92.90 tgt 92.70/92.50 SL 93.20

 SELL GBPUSD BELOW 1.5065 tgt 1.5045/1.5025 SL 1.5095

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 Dollar Threatening Serious Reversal as Dow Index Hits Record High Euro Looks to GDP Revision to Set the Stage for ECB Rate Decision Revised fourth-quarter Euro zone GDP figures headline the economic calendar. Economists expect confirmation of initial estimates showing a 0.6 contraction. That would mark the deepest quarterly downturn in nearly four years. A worse-than-expected result may weigh on the Euro as traders speculate the ECB may move to open the door for stimulus to counteract deepening recession and offset de-facto tightening from LTRO repayments. With that said, the central bank has been reluctant to ease against a backdrop rising sovereign risk, claiming swelling risk premiums priced into bond yields undermine policy transmission. Recent political jitters in Italy have seen yields on the country’s benchmark 10-year note trend higher, hinting Mario Draghi may prefer to remain on the sidelines until a concrete government emerges and funding stress unwinds. An upgrade on the GDP figure could thus drive the single currency higher, giving the bank just enough space to stay put this week.

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HOURLY HOURLY EURUSD CHART EURUSD CHART 

ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.3047 HIGH: 1.3070 LOW: 1.3024 CLOSE: 1.3033

 EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD  TREND : BEARISH  STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE  MACD =>-.000(BEARISH SIGNAL)  RSI => 45(BEARISH SIGNAL)


HOURLY USDJPY CHART

 HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 93.29 HIGH: 93.50 LOW: 93.00 CLOSE: 93.42

 USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD  TREND: BEARISH  STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE  MACD => -0.02( BEARISH SIGNAL)  RSI =>60(BEARISH SIGNAL)


HOURLYGBPUSD GBPUSD CHART  HOURLY CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.5136 HIGH: 1.5155 LOW: 1.5063 CLOSE: 1.5090

 GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD  TREND: BULLISH  STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE  MACD => .005( BEARISH SIGNAL)  RSI =>

42(BEARIISH SIGNAL)


HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 0.8620 HIGH: 0.8649 LOW: 0.8620 CLOSE: 0.8630

 EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS  TREND: BEARISH  STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE  MACD =>-.003(BEARISH SIGNAL)  RSI =>56(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 82.0420 HIGH: 82.2030 LOW: 81.9250 CLOSE: 82.1430

 USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD  TREND: BULLISH  STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS  MACD =>0.79(BULLISH SIGNAL)  RSI =>59(BULLISH SIGNAL)


ECONOMIC CALENDER

Date

Time

Event

Importance

GBP BoE/GfK Inflation Next 12 Mths (FEB)

Medium

00:00

NZD ANZ Commodity Price (FEB)

Low

1.0%

0.3%

00:01

GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (FEB)

Low

13

15

00:01

GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-0.1%

-0.3%

00:01

GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.1%

0.0%

00:30

JPY Confirmation Hearing for BoJ Governor Nominee Kuroda

00:30

AUD Inventories (4Q)

Low

0.2%

0.6%

1.2%

00:30

AUD Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (4Q)

Low

-1.0%

-1.0%

-2.7%

00:30

AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (JAN)

Low

9.9%

8.1%

12.4%

00:30

AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (JAN)

Low

-2.4%

2.8%

-1.7%

00:30

AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (FEB)

Low

3.0%

09:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (FEB)

Medium

46.8

49

48.7

09:30

EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (MAR)

Medium

-10.6

-4.3

-3.9

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

High

1.9%

1.9%

2.1%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

0.6%

0.5%

-0.2%

14:00

EUR Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels

High

14:45

USD ISM New York (FEB)

Low

56.7

22:30

AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (FEB)

Medium

45.3

GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

Low

Mon Mar 4

Tue Mar 5

Currency

Actual

Forecast

Previous

3.5%

Medium

0.6%

0.2%

-0.2%

Notes


Wed Mar 6

GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (FEB)

Low

1.7%

1.3%

00:01

GBP BRC Sales Like-ForLike YoY (FEB)

Low

1.0%

1.9%

00:30

AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

0.4%

-0.2%

00:30

AUD Current Account Balance (Australian Dollar) (4Q)

Medium

-15300M

-14900M

00:30

AUD Australia Net Exports of GDP (4Q)

Low

0.5

0.1

01:30

JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-1.7%

01:45

HSBC Services PMI (FEB)

Medium

54

03:30

AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (MAR 5)

High

3.00%

3.00%

08:45

EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB)

Medium

43.5

43.9

08:50

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB F)

Medium

42.7

42.7

08:55

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB F)

Medium

54.1

54.1

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB F)

Medium

47.3

47.3

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (FEB F)

Medium

47.3

47.3

09:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB)

Medium

51

51.5

09:30

GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (FEB)

Low

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (JAN)

High

-2.9%

-3.6%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

0.3%

-0.9%

15:00

USD ISM NonManufacutring Composite (FEB)

Medium

55

55.2

15:00

USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MAR)

Low

47.2

47.3

21:45

NZD Value of All Buildings SA (4Q)

Low

3.0%

9.6%

JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (FEB) GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (FEB)

$565M

Medium

-5.2%

Low

11.5%


00:01

GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

Low

00:30

AUD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q)

High

3.0%

3.1%

00:30

AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q)

High

0.6%

0.5%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (4Q P)

High

-0.9%

-0.9%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (4Q P)

High

-0.6%

-0.6%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Household Consumption (QoQ) (4Q P)

Medium

0.0%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Gross Fixed Capital (QoQ) (4Q P)

Medium

-0.7%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Government Expenditure (QoQ) (4Q P)

Low

-0.2%

12:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 1)

Low

-3.8%

13:15

USD ADP Employment Change (FEB)

13:15

USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Economic Outlook in Lancaster, PA

Low

15:00

CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision (MAR 6)

15:00

0.6%

168K

192K

High

1.00%

1.00%

USD Factory Orders (JAN)

Medium

-2.2%

1.8%

15:00

Ivey Purchasing Managers Index SA (FEB)

Medium

58.9

15:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAR 1)

Low

-1857K

15:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 1)

Low

557K

15:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 1)

Low

1130K

15:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAR 1)

Low

-75K

19:00

USD U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

Medium

22:30

AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (FEB)

Medium

36.2

23:00

NZD QV House Prices (YoY) (FEB)

Low

6.2%

23:50

JPY Official Reserve Assets (FEB)

Low

$1267.3B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAR 1)

Low

-짜106.4B

Medium


23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAR 1)

Low

-짜665.4B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAR 1)

Low

짜190.4B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAR 1)

Low

-짜82.6B

JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (MAR 7)

High

EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

Low

2.3%

EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.3%

00:30

AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (JAN)

Medium

-427M

05:00

JPY Leading Index (JAN P) (JAN P)

Medium

93.4

05:00

JPY Coincident Index (JAN P) (JAN P)

Low

92.6

05:30

AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) (FEB)

Low

A$46.5B

06:30

EUR French Mainland Unemployment Change (4Q)

Medium

29K

06:30

EUR French ILO Unemployment Rate (4Q)

Medium

10.3%

06:30

EUR French ILO Mainland Unemployment Rate (4Q)

Medium

9.9%

06:30

CHF SNB Final Result for 2012

Medium

06:45

CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (FEB)

Medium

3.1%

3.1%

06:45

CHF Unemployment Rate (FEB)

Medium

3.4%

3.4%

07:45

EUR French Trade Balance (euros) (JAN)

Low

-4700M

-5349M

08:00

CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (FEB)

Low

-4700M

427.0B

09:00

EUR Italian Producer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

Low

2.0%

09:00

EUR Italian Producer Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Low

-0.2%

11:00

EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (JAN)

11:00

Thu Mar 7

0.10%

0.10%

Medium

1.6%

-1.8%

EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.6%

0.8%

12:00

GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (MAR 7)

High

0.50%

0.50%

12:00

GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (MAR)

High

375B

375B


12:30

USD RBC Consumer Outlook Index (MAR)

Low

49.5

12:30

USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-24.4%

12:45

EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (MAR 7)

High

0.8%

0.75%

12:45

EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (MAR 7)

Medium

0.00%

0.0%

13:30

USD Trade Balance (JAN)

Medium

-$43.0B

-$38.5B

13:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 3)

Medium

355K

344K

13:30

USD Unit Labor Costs (4Q F)

Low

4.3%

4.5%

13:30

USD Non-Farm Productivity (4Q F)

Low

-1.5%

-2.0%

13:30

USD Continuing Claims (FEB 24)

Low

3110K

3074K

13:30

CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (JAN)

Low

-0.55B

-0.90B

13:30

CAD Building Permits (MoM) (JAN)

Low

-11.2%

15:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAR 1)

Low

-171

17:00

USD Household Change in Net Worth (4Q)

Low

$1722B

20:00

USD Consumer Credit (JAN)

Medium

21:45

NZD Manufacturing Activity (4Q)

Medium

1.6%

21:45

NZD Manufacturing Activity Volume SA (QoQ) (4Q)

Low

2.6%

23:50

JPY Nominal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q F)

High

-0.4%

23:50

JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q F)

High

-0.1%

23:50

JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized (4Q F)

High

-0.4%

23:50

JPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) (JAN)

Medium

-짜1512.3B

-짜567.6B

23:50

JPY Current Account Total (Yen) (JAN)

Low

-짜626.0B

-짜264.1B

23:50

JPY Current Account Balance (YoY) (JAN)

Low

34.2%

-199.4%

23:50

JPY Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (FEB)

Low

$14.500B

$14.595B


23:50

JPY Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (FEB)

Low

23:50

JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (JAN)

Low

23:50

JPY Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) (4Q F)

Low

-0.6%

JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (FEB)

Medium

56.5

JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (FEB)

Medium

49.5

EUR Bank of France Business Sentiment (FEB)

Medium

96

95

CNY Trade Balance (USD) (FEB)

Medium

-$8.85B

$29.15B

CNY Imports (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-8.2%

28.8%

CNY Exports (YoY) (FEB)

Low

7.6%

25.0%

07:45

EUR French Central Government Balance (euros) (JAN)

Low

08:15

CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

08:15

CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

08:15

CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Low

08:15

CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (FEB)

Low

11:00

EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-1.2%

-1.1%

11:00

EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.4%

0.3%

13:15

CAD Housing Starts (FEB)

Medium

172.0K

160.6K

13:30

USD Unemployment Rate (FEB)

High

7.9%

7.9%

13:30

USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (FEB)

High

155K

157K

13:30

CAD Unemployment Rate (FEB)

High

7.1%

7.0%

13:30

CAD Net Change in Employment (FEB)

High

7.5K

-21.9K

13:30

USD Change in Private Payrolls (FEB)

Medium

167K

166K

13:30

USD Average Hourly Earning All Employees (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

2.1%

2.1%

Fri Mar 8

1.6%

짜112.2B

짜98.1B

-87.2B

-0.30%

-0.3%

-0.1%

0.30%

-0.3%

-0.5%


13:30

CAD Participation Rate (FEB)

Medium

66.6

13:30

CAD Part Time Employment Change (FEB)

Medium

-1.4

13:30

CAD Full Time Employment Change (FEB)

Medium

-20.6

13:30

Average Hourly Earning All Employees (MoM) (FEB)

Low

13:30

USD Underemployment Rate (U6) (FEB)

Low

13:30

USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (FEB)

Low

13:30

USD Change in Household Employment (FEB)

Low

13:30

USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (FEB)

Low

13:30

CAD Labor Productivity (QoQ) (4Q)

Low

15:00

USD Wholesale Inventories (JAN)

Low

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10K

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daily-i-forex-report-BY EPIC RESEARCH 7 MARCH 2013