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DAILY I FOREX REPORT 28TH FEBRUARY 2013

WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO

+91 9752199966


HEADLINES

 Euro at Risk on Italian Bond Sale, Pound Sold Before GDP Data  Forex: USD/JPY And S&P 500 Well Positioned For Risk Aversion

TRADING TIPS  BUY EURUSD ABOVE

 Forex News: USD/JPY Unmoved on Retail Trade Report

1.3122 tgs 1.3142/1.3162 sl 1.3092

 SELL USDJPY BELOW 91.59 tgt 91.39/91.19 SL 91.89

 SELL GBPUSD BELOW 1.5080 tgt 1.5060/1.5040 SL

Euro at Risk on Italian Bond Sale, Pound Sold Before GDP Data Italy remains in focus as Rome prepares to sell €6.5 billion in 5- and 10-year bonds. Traders will keep a close eye on average yield and bid-to-cover readings, with a marked pickup in borrowing costs and/or a drop in demand likely to be seen as signs of rising sovereign risk amid political uncertainty in the wake of the weekend’s election. Needless to say, such an outcome bodes ill for the Euro.

1.5110

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HOURLY HOURLY EURUSD CHART EURUSD CHART 

ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.3069 HIGH: 1.3122 LOW: 1.3041 CLOSE: 1.3091

 EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD  TREND : BULLISH  STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS  MACD =>-.0006(BULLISH SIGNAL)  RSI => (BULLISH SIGNAL)


HOURLY USDJPY CHART

 HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 92.11 HIGH: 92.26 LOW: 91.59 CLOSE: 91.61

 USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD  TREND: BEARISH  STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE  MACD => -0.02( BEARISH SIGNAL)  RSI =>39(BEARISH SIGNAL)


HOURLYGBPUSD GBPUSD CHART  HOURLY CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.5130 HIGH: 1.5165 LOW: 1.5080 CLOSE: 1.5139

 GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD  TREND: BULLISH  STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE  MACD => .0002( BEARISH SIGNAL)  RSI =>

51(BEARIISH SIGNAL)


HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 0.8637 HIGH: 0.8673 LOW: 0.8626 CLOSE: 0.8645

 EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS  TREND: BEARISH  STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE  MACD =>-.0002(BEARISH SIGNAL)  RSI =>40(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 81.8780 HIGH: 81.9180 LOW: 81.5650 CLOSE: 81.7160

 USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD  TREND: BULLISH  STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS  MACD =>0.217(BULLISH SIGNAL)  RSI =>45(BULLISH SIGNAL)


ECONOMIC CALENDER

Date

Time

Mon Feb 25

01:45

Importance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (FEB)

Medium

50.4

52.2

52.3

09:30

GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase (JAN)

Medium

32288

34000

33440

10:00

EUR Italy to Sell 2014 Bonds and 2021, 2026 I/L Bonds

Medium

13:30

USD Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (JAN)

Medium

14:00

EUR Italian Voting Ends, Exit Polls to be Released

High

15:30

USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (FEB)

Low

21:15

RBA Assistant Governor Debelle Addresses Business School

Low

AUD APEC Finance and Central Bank Deputies' Meeting

Medium

Tue Feb 26

Currency

Event

0.02

3.0

5.5

USD Fed's Lockhart Speaks on Economy in Tennessee

Low

GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-0.3%

GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.0%

02:00

NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand 2-Year Inflation Expectation (1Q)

High

2.3%

05:00

JPY Small Business Confidence (FEB)

Medium

44.3

11:00

GBP CBI Reported Sales (FEB)

Low

14:00

USD House Price Purchase Index (QoQ) (4Q)

Medium

14:00

USD House Price Index (MoM) (DEC)

Medium

0.6%

0.6%

14:00

USD S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (YoY) (4Q)

Low

7.00%

3.64%

00:00

16

17

1.1%

Notes


Wed Feb 27

14:00

USD S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (4Q)

Low

135.67

14:00

USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (DEC)

Low

145.82

14:00

USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (DEC)

Low

6.6%

5.52%

14:00

USD S&P/CS 20 City s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.6%

0.63%

15:00

USD Fed's Bernanke Testifies at Senate Banking Committee

High

15:00

USD Consumer Confidence (FEB)

High

62

58.6

15:00

USD New Home Sales (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

3.0%

-7.3%

15:00

USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (FEB)

Low

-3

-12

15:00

USD New Home Sales (JAN)

Low

380K

369K

21:45

NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (JAN)

Medium

125M

486M

21:45

NZD Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars) (JAN)

Medium

-897M

-1208M

21:45

NZD Net Migration s.a. (JAN)

Low

21:45

NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (JAN)

Low

3.50B

3.58B

21:45

NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (JAN)

Low

3.60B

4.07B

23:50

JPY Retail Trade (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-1.6%

0.3%

23:50

JPY Large Retailers' Sales (JAN)

Medium

-0.8%

0.1%

23:50

JPY Retail Trade (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.8%

0.0%

00:30

AUD Construction Work Done (4Q)

Low

1.5%

1.7%

07:00

EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (Mar)

Medium

5.9

5.8

07:00

CHF UBS Consumption Indicator (JAN)

Medium

07:00

EUR German Import Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

Low

-0.4%

0.3%

07:00

EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.5%

-0.5%

0

1.34


08:00

CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (FEB)

09:00

Medium

1.00

1.05

EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (JAN)

Low

3.2%

3.3%

09:30

GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q P)

High

0.0%

0.0%

09:30

GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q P)

High

-0.3%

-0.3%

09:30

GBP Total Business Investment (YoY) (4Q P)

Medium

09:30

GBP Gross Fixed Capital Formation (4Q P)

Low

0.2%

-0.2%

09:30

GBP Government Spending (4Q P)

Low

0.1%

0.8%

09:30

GBP Exports (4Q P)

Low

-0.6%

1.2%

09:30

GBP Total Business Investment (QoQ) (4Q P)

Low

09:30

GBP Private Consumption (4Q P)

Low

-0.1%

0.4%

09:30

GBP Index of Services (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.0%

0.0%

09:30

GBP Index of Services (3Mo3M) (DEC)

Low

0.1%

0.6%

09:30

GBP Imports (4Q P)

Low

0.0%

-0.4%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (FEB)

Medium

89.9

89.2

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Services Confidence (FEB)

Low

-8.8

-8.8

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (FEB)

Low

-13.1

-13.9

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (FEB F)

Low

-23.6

-23.6

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (FEB)

Low

-1.02

-1.09

12:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (FEB 22)

Low

13:30

USD Durable Goods Orders (JAN)

High

-4.0%

4.6%

13:30

USD Durables Ex Transportation (JAN)

Medium

0.3%

1.3%

13:30

USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (JAN)

Low

-0.8%

0.3%

5.1%

3.8%

-1.7%


Thu Feb 28

13:30

USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (JAN)

Low

15:00

USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

15:00

USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (JAN)

Low

15:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (FEB 22)

Low

-2884K

15:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (FEB 22)

Low

-2277K

15:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (FEB 22)

Low

4143K

15:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (FEB 22)

Low

417K

21:30

USD Fed's Fisher Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy in New York

Low

21:45

NZD Building Permits (MoM) (JAN)

Low

23:15

JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (FEB)

Medium

23:50

JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN P)

Medium

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (FEB 22)

Low

-짜414.7B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (FEB 22)

Low

-짜620.6B

23:50

JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN P)

Low

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (FEB 22)

Low

짜197.9B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (FEB 22)

Low

-짜181.2B

00:00

AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

6.2%

00:00

NZD ANZ Business Confidence (FEB)

Low

22.7

00:00

NZD ANZ Activity Outlook (FEB)

Low

31.4

00:01

GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (FEB)

Medium

00:30

AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

0.2%

0.2%

4.9%

2.0%

-2.0%

-4.3%

9.4%

47.7

-4.8%

1.5%

-27

-7.9%

2.4%

-26

3.6%


00:30

AUD Private Capital Expenditure (4Q)

Medium

3.7%

2.8%

00:30

AUD Average Weekly Wages (YoY) (Nov)

Medium

0.3%

3.4%

00:30

AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JAN)

Low

00:30

AUD Average Weekly Wages (QoQ) (Nov)

Low

01:30

JPY BOJ Board MembeJPY Kiuchi Speaks to Business Leaders

Low

01:35

CNY MNI February Business Sentiment Indicator

Low

02:00

NZD Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JAN)

Low

6.0%

04:00

JPY Vehicle Production (YoY) (JAN)

Low

-17.2%

05:00

JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

8.8%

10.0%

05:00

JPY Annualized Housing Starts (JAN)

Medium

0.894M

0.880M

05:00

JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (JAN)

Low

06:45

CHF Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q)

High

0.9%

1.4%

06:45

CHF Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q)

Medium

0.0%

0.6%

08:55

EUR German Unemployment Change (FEB)

High

0K

-16K

08:55

EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. (FEB)

Medium

6.8%

6.8%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

High

2.0%

2.0%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (JAN)

High

1.5%

1.5%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

-1.0%

0.4%

10:00

CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-0.3%

10:00

CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

0.1%

13:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB P)

High

1.7%

1.7%

13:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (YoY)

High

1.7%

1.9%

0.4%

1.0%

0.4%

4.8%


(FEB P) 13:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB P)

Medium

0.7%

-0.5%

13:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (MoM) (FEB P)

Medium

0.7%

-0.7%

13:30

USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (4Q S)

High

0.6%

0.6%

13:30

USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (4Q S)

High

0.5%

-0.1%

13:30

USD Personal Consumption (4Q S)

Medium

2.3%

2.2%

13:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 24)

Medium

360K

362K

13:30

USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (4Q S)

Medium

0.9%

0.9%

13:30

CAD Current Account (BoP) (Canadian dollar) (4Q)

Medium

13:30

USD Continuing Claims (FEB 17)

Low

3140K

3148K

13:30

CAD Raw Materials Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.9%

-2.0%

13:30

CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.2%

0.0%

14:00

USD NAPM-Milwaukee (FEB)

Low

14:45

USD Chicago Purchasing Manager (FEB)

Low

15:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (FEB 22)

Low

-127

16:00

USD Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (FEB)

Low

-2

21:45

NZD Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (4Q)

Medium

22:30

AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (FEB)

Medium

23:00

AUD RPData-Rismark House PX Actual (FEB)

Low

23:30

JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

High

-0.2%

-0.1%

23:30

JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-0.7%

-0.6%

-$18.9B

51.3

54.1

1.4%

55.6

-3.2%

40.2


23:30

JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-0.2%

-0.2%

23:30

JPY Jobless Rate (JAN)

Medium

4.2%

4.2%

23:30

JPY Household Spending (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

0.4%

-0.7%

23:30

JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-0.6%

-0.6%

23:30

JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-1.0%

-0.9%

23:30

JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-0.5%

-0.5%

23:30

JPY Job-To-Applicant Ratio (JAN)

Low

0.83

0.82

23:50

JPY Capital Spending excl Software (4Q)

Medium

-6.5%

2.4%

23:50

JPY Capital Spending (4Q)

Medium

-7.2%

2.2%

23:50

JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (JAN)

Low

1.0%

JPY Official Reserve Assets (FEB)

Low

$1267.3B

01:00

CNY Manufacturing PMI (FEB)

High

01:00

USD Fed's Evans Speaks in Des Moines

Low

01:45

CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI (FEB)

Medium

52.3

05:00

JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-12.9%

05:30

AUD RBA Commodity Price Index (FEB)

Low

90.3

05:30

AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-6.4%

07:00

GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-0.2%

0.0%

07:00

EUR German Retail Sales (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-1.7%

-4.7%

07:00

GBP Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.2%

0.5%

07:00

EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.9%

-1.7%

08:30

CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (FEB)

Medium

52.1

52.5

Fri Mar 1

50.5

50.4


08:45

EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (FEB)

Low

47.6

47.8

08:50

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (FEB F)

Low

43.6

43.6

08:55

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (FEB F)

Medium

50.1

50.1

09:00

EUR Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (4Q)

Medium

10.6%

09:00

EUR Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (JAN P)

Medium

11.2%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (FEB F)

Medium

47.8

47.8

09:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (FEB)

Medium

51

50.8

09:30

GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (JAN)

Medium

0.8B

1.0B

09:30

GBP Net Consumer Credit (JAN)

Medium

0.2B

0.6B

09:30

GBP Mortgage Approvals (JAN)

Medium

56.5K

55.8K

09:30

GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY) (JAN)

Low

-1.0%

09:30

GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.7%

09:30

GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (JAN)

Low

3.8%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (JAN)

Medium

11.8%

11.7%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

1.9%

2.0%

11:00

EUR Italian Annual Gross Domestic Product (2012)

Medium

-2.2%

0.4%

13:30

CAD Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Annualized (4Q)

High

0.7%

0.6%

13:30

CAD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (DEC)

High

13:30

USD Personal Spending (JAN)

Medium

0.2%

0.2%

13:30

USD Personal Income (JAN)

Medium

-2.0%

2.6%

13:30

USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

1.3%

1.4%

1.3%


13:30

CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (DEC)

13:30

Medium

-0.1%

0.3%

USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (JAN)

Low

1.2%

1.3%

13:30

USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.1%

0.0%

13:30

USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.1%

0.0%

13:58

USD Markit US PMI Final (FEB)

Medium

14:55

USD U. of Michigan Confidence (FEB F)

Medium

76.3

76.3

15:00

USD ISM Manufacturing (FEB)

High

52.5

53.1

15:00

USD ISM Prices Paid (FEB)

Medium

57

56.5

15:00

USD Construction Spending (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

0.5%

0.9%

22:00

USD Total Vehicle Sales (FEB)

Low

15.05M

15.23M

22:00

USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (FEB)

Low

11.90M

12.08M


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daily-i-forex-report-BY EPIC RESEARCH 28 FEB 2013