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DAILY I FOREX REPORT 28th MARCH 2013

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HEADLINES

 Forex News: New Zealand Dollar Extends Gain on Trade Surplus  EUR/USD- Trading The U.S. Consumer Confidence Survey

TRADING TIPS  SELL EURUSD BELOW 1.2835 tgs 1.2815/1.2795 sl 1.2865

 USD To Look Higher On Stronger Recovery- Euro Rebound At Risk Euro Unimpressed by Cyprus Deal as Capital Flight Fears Linger Euro Yields Tepid Response to Cyprus Bailout Deal as Capital Flight Fears

 SELL USDJPY BELOW

Japanese Yen Declined as Stocks Rose in Asia, Denting Safe-Haven Demand

93.85 tgt 93.65/93.45 SL 94.15

 BUY GBPUSD ABOVE 1.5210 Tgt 1.5230/1.5250 SL 1.5180

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The major currencies are little changed in overnight trade. The Japanese Yen is broadly underperforming as Asian stocks advance, sapping demand for the regional haven currency. The MSCI Asia Pacific benchmark equity index has added 0.9 percent after Cyprus and the so-called “troika” (EU/ECB/IMF) agreed to measures paving the way for launch of the country’s bailout program. The Euro spiked higher as the news of the deal emerged but the single currency has since retreated as worries about the impact of the Cyprus fiasco on depositor confidence elsewhere in single currency bloc continue to swirl.

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HOURLY HOURLY EURUSD CHART EURUSD CHART 

ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.2857 HIGH: 1.2885 LOW: 1.2839 CLOSE: 1.2872

 EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD  TREND : BEARISH  STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE  MACD =>-.0005(BEARISH SIGNAL)  RSI => 43(BEARISH SIGNAL)


HOURLY USDJPY CHART

 HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 93.94 HIGH: 94.45 LOW: 93.87 CLOSE: 94.29

 USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD  TREND: BEARISH  STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE  MACD => -0.07( BEARISH SIGNAL)  RSI =>50(BEARISH SIGNAL)


HOURLYGBPUSD GBPUSD CHART  HOURLY CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.5177 HIGH: 1.5207 LOW: 1.5166 CLOSE: 1.5173

 GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD  TREND: BULLISH  STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS  MACD => .002( BULLISH SIGNAL)  RSI =>

45(BULLISH SIGNAL)


HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 0.8471 HIGH: 0.8487 LOW: 0.8459 CLOSE: 0.8485

 EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS  TREND: BULLISH  STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS  MACD =>-.003(BULLISH SIGNAL)  RSI =>55(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 82.8540 HIGH: 82.9370 LOW: 82.7530 CLOSE: 82.8150

 USDINDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD  TREND: BEARISH  STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE  MACD =>0.22(BEARISH SIGNAL)  RSI =>43(BEARISH SIGNAL)


ECONOMIC CALENDER Date

Time

Mon Mar 25

Tue Mar 26

Currency

Event

Importance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

00:01

GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.3%

0.1%

00:01

GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (MAR)

Low

0.0%

-0.1%

09:00

EUR German FinMin Schaeuble Holds Press Conference

Medium

09:00

EUR Italian Consumer Confidence Index s.a. (MAR)

Low

85.2

85.5

86

09:30

GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase (FEB)

Medium

30506

33500

31983

10:00

EUR Italy to Sell 2014 Bonds, 2018, 2023 I/L Bonds

Medium

12:30

USD Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (FEB)

Medium

0.44

14:30

USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (MAR)

Low

7.4

3.7

2.2

16:15

USD Fed's Dudley to Speak at Economic Club of New York

Low

17:15

GBP Fed's Bernanke, BoE's King, IMF's Blanchard Speak in London

Low

21:45

NZD Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars) (FEB)

Medium

-1082M

-1514M

-1286M

21:45

NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (FEB)

Medium

414M

-12M

-287M

21:45

NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (FEB)

Low

3.91B

3.55B

3.35B

21:45

NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (FEB)

Low

3.49B

3.58B

3.64B

23:50

JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY) (FEB)

Low

0.1%

0.0%

-0.2%

04:00

JPY Small Business Confidence (MAR)

Low

49.7

08:00

CHF KOF Institute March Economic Forecast

Medium

11:00

GBP CBI Reported Sales (MAR)

Low

13

8

12:30

USD Durable Goods Orders (FEB)

High

3.9%

-4.9%

-0.49

46

Notes


Wed Mar 27

12:30

USD Durables Ex Transportation (FEB)

Medium

0.5%

2.3%

12:30

USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (FEB)

Low

-1.0%

7.2%

12:30

USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (FEB)

Low

1.5%

-1.1%

13:00

USD S&P/CS 20 City MoM% SA (JAN)

Low

0.75%

0.88%

13:00

USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (JAN)

Low

7.85%

6.84%

13:00

USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (JAN)

Low

146.17

145.95

14:00

USD Consumer Confidence (MAR)

High

69

69.6

14:00

USD New Home Sales (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

-3.9%

15.6%

14:00

USD New Home Sales (FEB)

Low

420K

437K

14:00

USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (MAR)

Low

6

6

00:00

NZD NBNZ Business Confidence (MAR)

Medium

39.4

00:00

NZD ANZ Activity Outlook (MAR)

Low

37.6

07:00

CHF UBS Consumption Indicator (FEB)

Medium

1.18

07:00

EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (APR)

Low

5.9

5.9

07:00

EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.2%

0.1%

07:00

EUR German Import Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-1.6%

-0.8%

07:45

EUR French Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q F)

Medium

-0.3%

-0.3%

07:45

EUR French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q F)

Medium

-0.3%

-0.3%

08:00

CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (MAR)

Medium

1.04

1.03

09:30

GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q F)

High

-0.3%

-0.3%

09:30

GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q F)

High

0.3%

0.3%

09:30

GBP Current Account (Pounds) (4Q) (4Q)

Medium

-12.5B

-12.8B


09:30

GBP Total Business Investment (YoY) (4Q F)

Medium

09:30

GBP Total Business Investment (QoQ) (4Q F)

Low

-1.2%

-1.2%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (MAR)

Medium

-0.79

-0.73

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (MAR F)

Medium

-23.5

-23.5

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (MAR)

Medium

-12

-11.2

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Services Confidence (MAR)

Medium

-6.5

-5.4

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (MAR)

Low

90.5

91.1

11:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 22)

Low

12:30

CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (FEB)

High

1.0%

1.0%

12:30

CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

High

0.8%

0.5%

12:30

CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

0.3%

0.1%

12:30

CAD Consumer Price Index (FEB)

Medium

12:30

CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

0.7%

0.1%

12:30

CAD Consumer Price Index SA (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

0.5%

-0.1%

12:30

CAD Core CPI SA (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.1%

0.1%

14:00

USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

8.7%

10.4%

14:00

USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (FEB)

Low

-0.4%

4.5%

14:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAR 22)

Low

-286K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 22)

Low

-1314K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 22)

Low

-672K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories

Low

-1476K

0.4%

1.8%

-7.1%

121.3


(MAR 22)

17:00

USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks on Monetary Policy in Edina, MN

Low

21:45

NZD Building Permits (MoM) (FEB)

Low

23:30

AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

2.4%

23:30

AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.0%

23:50

JPY Large Retailers' Sales (FEB)

Medium

-1.5%

-3.5%

23:50

JPY Retail Trade (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-1.3%

-1.1%

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAR 22)

Low

-짜485.6B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAR 22)

Low

짜471.9B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAR 22)

Low

-짜427.3B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAR 22)

Low

-짜537.1B

23:50

JPY Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

Low

Thu Mar 28

3.0%

0.8%

-0.4%

2.3%

CNY Leading Index (FEB)

Medium

00:01

GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (MAR)

Medium

-27

-26

00:30

AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

0.3%

0.2%

00:30

AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

3.5%

3.6%

00:30

AUD Job vacancies (FEB)

Low

-6.9%

01:30

CNY Industrial Profits YTD (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

5.3%

02:00

NZD Money Supply M3 (YoY) (FEB)

Low

6.4%

07:00

GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

0.9%

0.0%

07:00

EUR German Retail Sales (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-1.2%

2.4%

07:00

GBP Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.2%

0.2%

07:00

EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB)

Low

-0.6%

3.0%

100.5


08:55

EUR German Unemployment Change (MAR)

08:55

High

-2K

-3K

EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. (MAR)

Medium

6.9%

6.9%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (3M) (FEB)

Low

3.3%

3.5%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (FEB)

Low

3.2%

3.5%

09:30

GBP Index of Services (3Mo3M) (JAN)

Low

-0.2%

-0.1%

09:30

GBP Index of Services (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.3%

-0.4%

12:30

CAD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (JAN)

High

0.9%

0.8%

12:30

USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (4Q T)

High

0.5%

0.1%

12:30

USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (4Q T)

High

0.9%

0.9%

12:30

CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

0.1%

-0.2%

12:30

USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (4Q T)

Medium

0.9%

0.9%

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 24)

Medium

338K

332K

12:30

USD Personal Consumption (4Q T)

Medium

2.1%

2.1%

12:30

CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.5%

0.0%

12:30

CAD Raw Materials Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Low

2.0%

3.8%

12:30

USD Continuing Claims (MAR 17)

Low

3041K

3053K

13:00

USD NAPM-Milwaukee (MAR)

Low

56

56.5

13:45

USD Chicago Purchasing Manager (MAR)

Low

56.3

56.8

14:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAR 22)

Low

-62

15:00

USD Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (MAR)

Low

-10

23:15

JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (MAR)

Medium

48.5

23:30

JPY Household Spending (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

0.1%

2.4%


Fri Mar 29

23:30

JPY Jobless Rate (FEB)

Medium

4.2%

4.2%

23:30

JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-0.4%

-0.2%

23:30

JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-0.9%

-0.7%

23:30

JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-0.7%

-0.3%

23:30

JPY Job-To-Applicant Ratio (FEB)

Low

0.86

0.85

23:30

JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (MAR)

Low

-0.6%

-0.6%

23:30

JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (MAR)

Low

-1.0%

-1.0%

23:30

JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

Low

-0.9%

-0.9%

23:50

JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (FEB P)

Medium

-8.4%

-5.8%

23:50

JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (FEB P)

Low

2.5%

0.3%

01:35

CNY MNI Business Sentiment Indicator (MAR)

04:00

JPY Vehicle Production (YoY) (FEB)

05:00

JPY Annualized Housing Starts (FEB)

Medium

0.897M

0.863M

05:00

JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-1.8%

5.0%

05:00

JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (FEB)

Low

12:30

USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (FEB)

High

1.3%

1.3%

12:30

USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

0.1%

0.1%

12:30

USD Personal Income (FEB)

Medium

0.9%

-3.6%

12:30

USD Personal Spending (FEB)

Medium

0.6%

0.2%

12:30

USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.5%

0.0%

Medium

-9.9%

Low

-3.7%


12:30

USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (FEB)

Low

1.4%

1.2%

13:55

USD U. of Michigan Confidence (MAR F)

High

72.9

71.8

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Daily i-Forex Report by www.epicresearch.co 28th March 2013