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DAILY I FOREX REPORT 27th MAY 2013

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HEADLINES

 Dollar Fails to Break EUR/USD’s 1.2750 Support as Risk, QE3 Fears Steady  Are We at the Long-Awaited Shift in Risk? All the hallmarks of a souring of risk appetite popped up last week: a drop from equities, yen crosses easing, dollar advancing, volatility on the rise... Yet we have been here many times before were the specter of fear simply evaporates. Will the market lose its faith in stimulus and record highs or is back to the status quo?

TRADING TIPS  BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.2995 TGT 1.3015/1.3035 SL 1.2965

Dollar Could Surge as Markets on the Brink of Something Big It was shaping up to be a banner week for the US Dollar as the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker: USDOLLAR) powered to fresh multiyear highs, but the suddenly-resurgent Japanese Yen stole the spotlight as it posted its largest weekly gain since August, 2011. Will EUR/USD Break 1.3000 or 1.2750 on Heavy Data, Risk Trends? The euro didn’t put in for a concerted move of its own this past week – happy to simply ride the current on stronger counterparts like the US dollar. However, the week ahead will likely see the Euro-region fundamentals generate a lot of the trading activity for the period. Japanese Yen Correction to Be Limited- BoJ Rhetoric in Focus

 BUY USDJPY ABOVE 102.60 TGT 102.80/103.00 SL 102.30

The Japanese Yen bounced back against its U.S. counterpart, with the USDJPY tagging a weekly low of 100.82, and the near-term pullback may turn into a larger correction as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) appears to scaling back its aggressive approach in achieving the 2% target for inflation. Gold Rebounds as Stocks Retreat- Is It Time to Buy? Gold posted a modest recovery this week with the precious metal advancing 2.12% after last week’s 6% decline to trade at $1388 at the close of trade in New York on Friday. Is this rally real or should we be looking for fresh short entries? Australian Dollar May Have Scope to Rise Amid Profit-Taking

 SELL GBPUSD BELOW 1.5060 TGT 1.5040/1.5020

The Australian Dollar continued to slide last week – yielding the worst performance among the major currencies against its US namesake – as shifting monetary policy expectations undermined demand for the highyielder.

SL 1.5090

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 HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.2923

EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD

HIGH: 1.2993

TREND: BULLISH

LOW: 1.2904

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

CLOSE: 1.2934

MACD =>-.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 57(BULLISH SIGNAL)


HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 102.42

USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD

HIGH: 102.58

TREND: BULLISH

LOW: 100.66

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

CLOSE: 101.30

MACD =>.04(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 45(BULLISH SIGNAL)


HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.5092

GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

HIGH: 1.5143

TREND: BEARISH

LOW: 1.5064

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

CLOSE: 1.5122

MACD =>-.000(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 54(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 00.8562

EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARD

HIGH: 00.8597

TREND: BEARISH

LOW: 00.8535

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

CLOSE: 00.8544

MACD =>.00005(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 42(BEARISH SIGNAL)


HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 83.7920

USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD

HIGH: 83.9610

TREND: BULLISH

LOW: 83.4330

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

CLOSE: 83.6400

MACD =>.0291(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 45(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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ECONOMIC CALLENDER Date

Time

Sun May 19

22:30

NZD Performance Services Index (APR)

23:01

23:01

Event

Importance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Medium

56.1

55.6

GBP Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (MAY)

Low

2.1%

2.1%

GBP Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (MAY)

Low

2.5%

0.4%

JPY Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report for May

Medium

04:00

JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (APR)

Low

-2.8%

48.4%

05:00

JPY Coincident Index (MAR F)

Low

93.8

93.3

05:00

JPY Leading Index (MAR F)

Medium

97.9

97.6

05:30

JPY Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) (APR)

Low

-0.5%

3.9%

05:30

JPY Tokyo Department Store Sales (YoY) (APR)

Low

2.1%

6.4%

06:00

JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (APR F)

Medium

-23.6%

-24.1%

07:00

JPY Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (APR)

Low

-2.6%

-0.4%

12:30

USD Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (APR)

Medium

-0.53

-0.23

17:00

USD Fed's Evans Speaks on Economy in Chicago

Low

00:00

AUD Conference Board Leading Index (MAR)

Medium

0.1%

0.3%

01:30

AUD RBA Policy Meeting - May Minutes

High

03:00

NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand 2-Year Inflation Expectation (2Q)

Medium

2.06%

2.17%

03:00

NZD Credit Card Spending s.a. (MoM) (APR)

Medium

0.4%

-0.3%

03:00

NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY) (APR)

Medium

4.0%

3.6%

04:30

JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

Mon May 20

Tue May 21

Currency

-0.4%

0.6%

Notes


05:00

JPY Supermarket Sales (YoY) (APR)

Low

06:00

EUR German Producer Prices (MoM) (APR)

Low

-0.1%

-0.2%

06:00

EUR German Producer Prices (YoY) (APR)

Low

0.1%

0.4%

07:00

CHF Money Supply M3 (YoY) (APR)

Low

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (MoM) (APR)

Low

-1.3%

-0.1%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) (APR)

Low

0.3%

0.4%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (MoM) (APR)

Low

0.2%

0.3%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (YoY) (APR)

Medium

1.4%

2.0%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (APR)

Low

0.3%

0.1%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (APR)

Medium

0.9%

1.3%

08:30

GBP DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) (MAR)

Low

2.0%

1.9%

08:30

GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR)

Medium

0.4%

0.3%

08:30

GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)

High

2.6%

2.8%

08:30

GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)

High

2.3%

2.4%

08:30

GBP Retail Price Index (APR)

Low

249.9

248.7

08:30

GBP Retail Price Index (MoM) (APR)

Low

0.5%

0.4%

08:30

GBP Retail Price Index (YoY) (APR)

Low

3.1%

3.3%

08:30

GBP Retail Price Index Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (APR)

Low

3.0%

3.2%

15:30

USD Fed's Bullard Speaks on Monetary Policy in Frankfurt

Low

17:00

USD Fed's Dudley Speaks in New York

Low

22:45

NZD Net Migration s.a. (APR)

Low

23:50

JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) (APR)

Medium

1.7%

9.9%

1220

-짜637.3B

-짜362.4B


23:50

JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) (APR)

Low

-짜605.8B

-짜922.0B

23:50

JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (APR)

Low

5.5

1.1

JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (MAY 22)

High

0.10%

0.10%

JPY BOJ Kuroda Press Conference After Policy Meeting

High

Wed May 22

00:30

AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (MAY)

Medium

-5.1%

00:30

AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (MAY)

Low

104.9

01:00

AUD DEWR Internet Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (APR)

Low

0.1%

04:00

JPY Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (euros) (MAR)

Low

16.3B

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (euros) (MAR)

Low

12.1B

08:30

GBP Bank of England Minutes

High

08:30

GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (APR)

Low

0.1%

-0.8%

08:30

GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (APR)

Medium

1.8%

0.4%

08:30

GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (MoM) (APR)

Low

0.1%

-0.7%

08:30

GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) (APR)

Medium

2.0%

-0.5%

08:30

GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (APR)

Medium

-4.0B

31.3B

08:30

GBP PSNB ex Interventions (APR)

Medium

8.5B

15.1B

08:30

GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) (APR)

Medium

8.8B

16.7B

10:00

GBP CBI Trends Total Orders (MAY)

Low

-17

-25

10:00

GBP CBI Trends Selling Prices (MAY)

Low

5

8

11:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAY 17)

Low

Medium

-7.3%


Thu May 23

12:30

CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR)

12:30

Medium

0.2%

0.8%

CAD Retail Sales Less Autos (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.2%

0.7%

14:00

USD Fed's Bernanke Testifies on Economic Outlook

High

14:00

USD Existing Home Sales (APR)

Low

4.99M

4.92M

14:00

USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (APR)

Medium

1.3%

-0.6%

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 17)

Low

-624K

14:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAY 17)

Low

575K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 17)

Low

2588K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 17)

Low

2300K

18:00

USD Fed Releases Minutes from Apr 30 May 1 FOMC Meeting

High

23:50

JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (APR)

Low

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAY 17)

Medium

짜186.4B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAY 17)

Medium

짜19.2B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAY 17)

Low

-짜413.5B

01:00

AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (MAY)

Medium

2.20%

01:45

CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (MAY)

Medium

05:00

JPY Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for May (Table)

Medium

07:00

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY P)

6.9

5.5

50.4

50.4

Low

44.8

44.4

07:00

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY P)

Low

44.5

44.3

07:30

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY A)

Medium

48.5

48.1

LIVE


07:30

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY A)

Medium

50.0

49.6

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY A)

Medium

47.0

46.7

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY A)

Medium

47.2

47.0

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (MAY A)

Medium

47.2

46.9

LIVE

08:00 LIVE

08:00 LIVE

08:30

GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P)

High

0.3%

0.3%

08:30

GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q P)

High

0.6%

0.6%

08:30

GBP Private Consumption (1Q P)

Low

0.3%

0.4%

08:30

GBP Government Spending (1Q P)

Low

0.2%

0.6%

08:30

GBP Gross Fixed Capital Formation (1Q P)

Low

0.3%

-0.2%

08:30

GBP Exports (1Q P)

Low

-1.0%

-1.6%

08:30

GBP Imports (1Q P)

Low

-0.9%

-1.0%

08:30

GBP Total Business Investment (QoQ) (1Q P)

Low

-0.8%

08:30

GBP Total Business Investment (YoY) (1Q P)

Medium

0.8%

08:30

GBP Index of Services (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.1%

0.8%

08:30

GBP Index of Services (3Mo3M) (MAR)

Low

0.6%

0.1%

10:05

USD Fed's Bullard to Speak on Monetary Policy in London

Low

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 18)

Medium

346K

360K

12:30

USD Continuing Claims (MAY 17)

Low

3000K

3009K

12:58

USD Markit US PMI Preliminary (MAY)

Medium

52

13:00

USD House Price Index (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

0.80%

13:00

USD House Price Purchase Index (QoQ) (1Q)

Low

0.70%

1.40%


14:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (MAY A)

Medium

-21.8

-22.3

14:00

USD New Home Sales (APR)

Low

425K

417K

14:00

USD New Home Sales (MoM) (APR)

Medium

1.90%

1.50%

14:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAY 17)

Low

15:00

USD Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (MAY)

Low

-5

-5

22:45

NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (APR)

Medium

480M

718M

22:45

NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (APR)

Low

4.06B

4.42B

22:45

NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (APR)

Low

3.60B

3.70B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAY 17)

Low

EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (1Q F)

Fri May 24

Medium

99

짜878.8B

0.1%

0.1%

01:35

CNY MNI May Flash Business Sentiment Indicator

Low

02:55

JPY Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda speech at Nikkei Conference

Low

04:00

USD Revisions: New Home Sales

Low

06:00

EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (1Q F)

High

-0.2%

-0.2%

06:00

EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) (1Q F)

High

-1.4%

-1.4%

06:00

EUR German Domestic Demand (1Q)

Low

0.1%

0.2%

06:00

EUR German Exports (1Q)

Low

-0.6%

-2.0%

06:00

EUR German Capital Investment (1Q)

Low

-0.7%

-0.7%

06:00

EUR German Government Spending (1Q)

Low

0.3%

0.4%

06:00

EUR German Construction Investment (1Q)

Low

-1.2%

-0.1%

06:00

EUR German Imports (1Q)

Low

-0.9%

-0.6%


06:00

EUR German Private Consumption (1Q)

06:00

Low

0.3%

0.1%

EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JUN) (JUN)

Medium

6.2

6.2

08:00

EUR German IFO Business Climate (MAY)

Medium

104.4

104.4

08:00

EUR German IFO Current Assessment (MAY)

Medium

107.2

107.2

08:00

EUR German IFO Expectations (MAY)

Medium

101.6

101.6

08:30

GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase (APR)

Medium

32800

31227

12:30

USD Durable Goods Orders (APR)

High

1.7%

-5.7%

12:30

USD Durables Ex Transportation (APR)

Medium

0.5%

-1.4%

12:30

USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (APR)

Low

0.5%

0.2%

12:30

USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (APR)

Low

22:45

NZD Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars) (APR)

Medium

LIVE

0.3%

-380M

-525M


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daily-i-forex-report-1 BY EPIC RESEARCH 27 MAY 2013