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DAILY I FOREX REPORT 10th MAY 2013

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HEADLINES

 US Dollar Adrift As S&P 500 Rally Continues To Power Ahead  AUD/USD Reverses After Jobs Data, GBP/USD Readies For BoE

TRADING TIPS  BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.3155 tgs 1.3175/1.3195 sl 1.3125

 BUY USDJPY ABOVE 98.70 tgt 98.90/99.10 SL 98.40

 SELL GBPUSD BELOW 1.5560 Tgt 1.5540/1.5520 SL 1.5590

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 ECB Cuts its Euro-Zone Growth Forecast, Attributes Rate Cut to Inflation British Pound Short Trade Held into BOE Rate Decision The monetary policy announcement from the Bank of England headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Mervyn King and company are forecast to the size of the asset-purchase program unchanged at 375 billion. UK economic news-flow has cautiously improved relative to economists’ expectations since April’s sit-down of the rate-setting MPC committee. Furthermore the Bank extended its Funding for Lending (FLS) scheme late last month, limiting the scope for further action in the near term. A status-quo result seems firmly entrenched in investors’ baseline outlook however, meaning such an outcome unlikely to yield a dramatic response from the British Pound. With that in mind, we remain short GBPUSD.

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 HOURLY EURUSD CHART 

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.3144

EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD

HIGH: 1.3157

TREND: BULLISH

LOW: 1.3141

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

CLOSE: 1.3153

MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 52(BULLISH SIGNAL)


HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 98.69

USDJPY LOOKS UPWARDS

HIGH: 98.69

TREND: BULLISH

LOW: 98.66

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

CLOSE: 98.68

MACD =>.01(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 45(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.5567

GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

HIGH: 1.5568

TREND: BEARISH

LOW: 1.5564

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

CLOSE: 1.5568

MACD =>.0001(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 38(BEARISH SIGNAL)


HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 00.8443

EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS

HIGH: 00.8445

TREND: BULLISH

LOW: 00.8442

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

CLOSE: 00.8443

MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 32(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 81.8760

USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARDS

HIGH: 81.9590

TREND: BULLISH

LOW: 81.8610

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

CLOSE: 81.9050

MACD =>.0643(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 42(BULLISH SIGNAL)

ECONOMIC CALLENDER


Date

Time

Sun May 5 Mon May 6

Currency

Event

Importance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

13:30

USD Fed's Pianalto Gives Commencement Speech in Ohio

Low

00:23

CNY Leading Index (MAR)

Medium

99.38

99.98

00:30

AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (APR)

Medium

2.1%

2.1%

00:30

AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (APR)

Low

0.3%

0.2%

01:30

AUD Retail Sales Ex Inflation(QoQ) (1Q)

Medium

2.2%

1.7%

0.1%

01:30

AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

-0.4%

0.1%

1.3%

01:30

AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (APR)

Low

-1.3%

-0.4%

01:45

CNY HSBC Services PMI (APR)

Medium

51.1

54.3

07:45

EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR)

Low

47.0

45.9

45.5

07:50

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR F)

Low

44.3

44.1

44.1

07:55

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR F)

Medium

49.6

49.2

49.2

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (APR F)

Medium

46.9

46.6

46.5

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR F)

Medium

47.0

46.6

46.6

08:30

EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (MAY)

Medium

-15.6

-15.2

-17.3

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

-2.4%

-2.2%

-1.7%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR)

Low

-0.1%

-0.1%

-0.2%

09:00

EUR German FinMin Schaeuble Speaks on European Integration

Low

12:30

CAD Building Permits (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

1.0%

1.7%

14:00

CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (APR)

Medium

58.0

61.6

22:45

NZD Average Hourly Earnings (QoQ) (1Q)

Medium

1.0%

-0.4%

22:45

NZD Labor Cost Private Sector (QoQ) (1Q)

Low

0.5%

0.6%

Notes


Tue May 7

22:45

NZD Private Wages ex Overtime (QoQ) (1Q)

Low

23:01

GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (APR)

Low

1.4%

23:01

GBP Lloyds Employment Confidence (APR)

Low

-45

23:30

AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (APR)

Medium

39

01:30

AUD House Price Index (QoQ) (1Q)

Medium

1.8%

1.6%

01:30

AUD House Price Index (YoY) (1Q)

Medium

4.0%

2.1%

01:30

AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (MAR)

Medium

0M

-178M

04:30

AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (MAY 7)

High

3.00%

3.00%

05:45

CHF SECO Consumer Confidence (APR)

Medium

-2

-6

05:45

CHF Unemployment Rate (APR)

Medium

3.1%

3.2%

05:45

CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (APR)

Medium

3.1%

3.1%

06:30

AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) (APR)

Low

07:00

CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (APR)

Low

435.0B

438.3B

10:00

EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

-2.9%

0.0%

10:00

EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

Low

-0.5%

2.3%

14:00

USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MAY)

Low

47.3

46.2

14:00

USD JOLTs Job Openings (MAR)

Low

19:00

USD Consumer Credit (MAR)

Medium

$16.000B

$18.139B

23:01

GBP BRC Sales LikeFor-Like (YoY) (APR)

Low

1.9%

1.9%

04:00

CNY Trade Balance (USD) (APR)

Medium

$15.50B

-$0.88B

04:00

CNY Exports (YoY) (APR)

Low

10.0%

10.0%

04:00

CNY Imports (YoY) (APR)

Low

13.0%

14.1%

LIVE

Wed May 8

0.5%

0.5%

A$48.7B

3925


Thu May 9

04:00

GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (APR)

Low

1.6%

1.1%

04:00

GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (APR)

Low

0.2%

0.2%

04:00

GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (APR)

Low

5.9%

07:15

CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (APR)

Medium

-0.3%

07:15

CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)

Medium

07:15

CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (APR)

Low

07:15

CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR)

Low

0.1%

0.2%

10:00

EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

-3.8%

-1.8%

10:00

EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

Low

-0.1%

0.5%

11:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAY 3)

Low

12:15

CAD Housing Starts (APR)

Medium

12:30

USD Fed's Stein Speaks at Chicago Fed Conference

Low

14:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAY 3)

Low

-1382K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 3)

Low

6696K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 3)

Low

474K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 3)

Low

-1818K

22:45

NZD Unemployment Rate (1Q)

High

6.8%

6.9%

22:45

NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (1Q)

Medium

1.0%

-1.0%

22:45

NZD Employment Change (YoY) (1Q)

Medium

-0.7%

-1.4%

22:45

NZD Participation Rate (QoQ) (1Q)

Low

67.9%

67.2%

23:50

JPY Official Reserve Assets (APR)

Low

$1254.4B

00:00

NZD QV House Prices (YoY) (APR)

Low

6.5%

-0.5%

-0.6%

0.5%

1.8%

175.0K

184.0K


AUD Employment Change (APR)

High

11.0K

-36.1K

AUD Unemployment Rate (APR)

High

5.6%

5.6%

01:30

CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)

High

2.3%

2.1%

01:30

AUD Full Time Employment Change (APR)

Medium

01:30

CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) (APR)

Medium

01:30

AUD Part Time Employment Change (APR)

Low

01:30

AUD Participation Rate (APR)

Low

02:00

JPY Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (APR)

Low

05:00

JPY Leading Index (MAR P)

05:00

01:30 LIVE

01:30 LIVE

-7.4K

-2.3%

-1.9%

-28.7K

65.1%

65.1%

8.56%

Medium

97.7

97.6

JPY Coincident Index (MAR P)

Low

93.2

92.4

08:00

EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report

High

08:30

GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

-1.6%

-2.2%

08:30

GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

-2.0%

-1.4%

08:30

GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.2%

1.0%

08:30

GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.3%

0.8%

11:00

GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (MAY)

High

375B

375B

11:00

GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (MAY 9)

High

0.50%

0.50%

12:00

USD Fed's Lacker Speaks on Financial Stability in New York

Low

12:30

CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

2.1%

2.1%

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 4)

Medium

335K

324K

12:30

CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.1%

0.2%

12:30

USD Continuing Claims (APR 27)

Low

3018K

3019K


14:00

GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (APR)

High

14:00

USD Wholesale Inventories (MAR)

Medium

0.4%

-0.3%

14:00

USD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.1%

1.7%

14:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAY 3)

Low

17:15

USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Monetary Policy in New York

Low

22:45

NZD NZ Card Spending - Retail (MoM) (APR)

Medium

22:45

NZD NZ Card Spending (MoM) (APR)

Medium

23:50

JPY Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (APR)

Medium

23:50

JPY Trade Balance BOP Basis (Yen) (MAR)

Medium

-¥274.0B

-¥677.0B

23:50

JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (MAR)

Low

¥480.4B

-¥0.1B

23:50

JPY Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (APR)

Low

23:50

JPY Current Account Balance (YoY) (MAR)

Low

-5.7%

-47.0%

23:50

JPY Current Account Total (Yen) (MAR)

Low

¥1216.3B

¥637.4B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAY 3)

Low

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAY 3)

Low

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAY 3)

Low

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAY 3)

Low

GBP G7 Finance Ministers, Central Bank Chiefs, Meet in UK

High

04:00

CNY New Yuan Loans (APR)

High

767.5B

1060.0B

04:00

CNY Aggregate Financing (APR)

Low

1480.0B

2544.3B

04:00

CNY Money Supply M0 (YoY) (APR)

Low

12.0%

12.4%

04:00

CNY Money Supply M1 (YoY) (APR)

Low

11.3%

11.9%

Fri May 10

0.10%

43

0.5%

-0.5%

-1.2%

1.9%


04:00

CNY Money Supply M2 (YoY) (APR)

04:30

JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (APR)

Medium

-20.0%

05:00

JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (APR)

Medium

57.5

05:00

JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (APR)

Low

57.3

06:00

EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (MAR)

Medium

17.5B

16.8B

06:00

EUR German Current Account (euros) (MAR)

Low

19.5B

16.0B

06:00

EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.5%

-1.5%

06:00

EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

Low

1.5%

-3.9%

08:30

GBP Construction Output (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

-6.6%

-7.0%

08:30

GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (MAR)

Medium

-£9000

-£9416

08:30

GBP Construction Output (MoM) (MAR)

Low

15.0%

5.5%

08:30

GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (MAR)

Low

-£3100

-£3642

08:30

GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (MAR)

Low

-£4000

-£4276

12:25

USD Fed's Evans Speaks at Chicago Fed Conference

Low

12:30

CAD Net Change in Employment (APR)

High

15.0K

-54.5K

CAD Unemployment Rate (APR)

High

7.20%

7.20%

LIVE

12:30 LIVE

Low

15.5%

15.7%

12:30

Full Time Employment Change (APR)

Medium

-54.0K

12:30

Part Time Employment Change (APR)

Low

-0.4K

12:30

Participation Rate (APR)

Low

13:30

Fed's Bernanke Speaks at Chicago Fed Conference

Medium

18:00

USD Monthly Budget Statement (APR)

Medium

18:00

Fed's George Speaks on the Economy in Wyoming

Low

66.7

$106.0B

66.6


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+ 91 9752199966


Daily i-Forex Report by www.epicresearch.co 10th May 2013