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DAILY I FOREX REPORT 8th MAY 2013

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HEADLINES

 Aussie Plummets As RBA Unexpectedly Cuts The Interest Rate  AUD/USD- Trading the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meetin

TRADING TIPS  BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.3115 tgs 1.3135/1.3155 sl 1.3085

 Major Currencies May Enter Consolidation on Absent Event Risk Australian Dollar Sinks as RBA Cuts Key Interest Rate to Record Low Soft German Factory Orders Report May Damage Euro on ECB Bets

 BUY USDJPY ABOVE 99.35 tgt 99.55/99.75 SL 99.05

 SELL GBPUSD BELOW 1.5525 Tgt 1.5505/1.5485 SL 1.5555

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The Australian Dollar underperformed after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low at 2.75 percent, as expected. The currency slid as much as 0.8 percent on average against its top counterparts. Traders are now pricing in another 25bps reduction at the June meeting and at least one further cut beyond that over the coming 12 months. The economic calendar is relatively quiet in European trading hours, with Germany’s Factory Orders report amounting to the only bit of noteworthy event risk on the docket. Expectations call for a 2.9 percent yearon-year decline in March, marking the worst performance in six months. A soft print may reinforce overnight comments from ECB President Mario Draghi, who said the central bank may cut rates again if needed, and put downward pressure on the Euro.

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 HOURLY EURUSD CHART 

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.3079

EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD

HIGH: 1.3116

TREND: BULLISH

LOW: 1.3079

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

CLOSE: 1.3110

MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 65(BULLISH SIGNAL)


HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 99.14

USDJPY LOOKS UPWARDS

HIGH: 99.35

TREND: BULLISH

LOW: 99.14

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

CLOSE: 99.35

MACD =>.12(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 59(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.5538

GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

HIGH: 1.5540

TREND: BEARISH

LOW: 1.5522

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

CLOSE: 1.5527

MACD =>.0001(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 38(BEARISH SIGNAL)


HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 00.8418

EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS

HIGH: 00.8449

TREND: BULLISH

LOW: 00.8418

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

CLOSE: 00.8449

MACD =>.0002(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 70(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 82.2990

USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARDS

HIGH: 82.2990

TREND: BULLISH

LOW: 82.1530

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

CLOSE: 82.1650

MACD =>.0643(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 50(BULLISH SIGNAL)

ECONOMIC CALLENDER


Date

Time

Sun May 5 Mon May 6

Currency

Event

Importance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

13:30

USD Fed's Pianalto Gives Commencement Speech in Ohio

Low

00:23

CNY Leading Index (MAR)

Medium

99.38

99.98

00:30

AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (APR)

Medium

2.1%

2.1%

00:30

AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (APR)

Low

0.3%

0.2%

01:30

AUD Retail Sales Ex Inflation(QoQ) (1Q)

Medium

2.2%

1.7%

0.1%

01:30

AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

-0.4%

0.1%

1.3%

01:30

AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (APR)

Low

-1.3%

-0.4%

01:45

CNY HSBC Services PMI (APR)

Medium

51.1

54.3

07:45

EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR)

Low

47.0

45.9

45.5

07:50

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR F)

Low

44.3

44.1

44.1

07:55

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR F)

Medium

49.6

49.2

49.2

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (APR F)

Medium

46.9

46.6

46.5

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR F)

Medium

47.0

46.6

46.6

08:30

EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (MAY)

Medium

-15.6

-15.2

-17.3

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

-2.4%

-2.2%

-1.7%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR)

Low

-0.1%

-0.1%

-0.2%

09:00

EUR German FinMin Schaeuble Speaks on European Integration

Low

12:30

CAD Building Permits (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

1.0%

1.7%

14:00

CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (APR)

Medium

58.0

61.6

22:45

NZD Average Hourly Earnings (QoQ) (1Q)

Medium

1.0%

-0.4%

22:45

NZD Labor Cost Private Sector (QoQ) (1Q)

Low

0.5%

0.6%

Notes


Tue May 7

22:45

NZD Private Wages ex Overtime (QoQ) (1Q)

Low

23:01

GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (APR)

Low

1.4%

23:01

GBP Lloyds Employment Confidence (APR)

Low

-45

23:30

AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (APR)

Medium

39

01:30

AUD House Price Index (QoQ) (1Q)

Medium

1.8%

1.6%

01:30

AUD House Price Index (YoY) (1Q)

Medium

4.0%

2.1%

01:30

AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (MAR)

Medium

0M

-178M

04:30

AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (MAY 7)

High

3.00%

3.00%

05:45

CHF SECO Consumer Confidence (APR)

Medium

-2

-6

05:45

CHF Unemployment Rate (APR)

Medium

3.1%

3.2%

05:45

CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (APR)

Medium

3.1%

3.1%

06:30

AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) (APR)

Low

07:00

CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (APR)

Low

435.0B

438.3B

10:00

EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

-2.9%

0.0%

10:00

EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

Low

-0.5%

2.3%

14:00

USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MAY)

Low

47.3

46.2

14:00

USD JOLTs Job Openings (MAR)

Low

19:00

USD Consumer Credit (MAR)

Medium

$16.000B

$18.139B

23:01

GBP BRC Sales LikeFor-Like (YoY) (APR)

Low

1.9%

1.9%

04:00

CNY Trade Balance (USD) (APR)

Medium

$15.50B

-$0.88B

04:00

CNY Exports (YoY) (APR)

Low

10.0%

10.0%

04:00

CNY Imports (YoY) (APR)

Low

13.0%

14.1%

LIVE

Wed May 8

0.5%

0.5%

A$48.7B

3925


Thu May 9

04:00

GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (APR)

Low

1.6%

1.1%

04:00

GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (APR)

Low

0.2%

0.2%

04:00

GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (APR)

Low

5.9%

07:15

CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (APR)

Medium

-0.3%

07:15

CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)

Medium

07:15

CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (APR)

Low

07:15

CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR)

Low

0.1%

0.2%

10:00

EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

-3.8%

-1.8%

10:00

EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

Low

-0.1%

0.5%

11:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAY 3)

Low

12:15

CAD Housing Starts (APR)

Medium

12:30

USD Fed's Stein Speaks at Chicago Fed Conference

Low

14:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAY 3)

Low

-1382K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 3)

Low

6696K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 3)

Low

474K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 3)

Low

-1818K

22:45

NZD Unemployment Rate (1Q)

High

6.8%

6.9%

22:45

NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (1Q)

Medium

1.0%

-1.0%

22:45

NZD Employment Change (YoY) (1Q)

Medium

-0.7%

-1.4%

22:45

NZD Participation Rate (QoQ) (1Q)

Low

67.9%

67.2%

23:50

JPY Official Reserve Assets (APR)

Low

$1254.4B

00:00

NZD QV House Prices (YoY) (APR)

Low

6.5%

-0.5%

-0.6%

0.5%

1.8%

175.0K

184.0K


AUD Employment Change (APR)

High

11.0K

-36.1K

AUD Unemployment Rate (APR)

High

5.6%

5.6%

01:30

CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)

High

2.3%

2.1%

01:30

AUD Full Time Employment Change (APR)

Medium

01:30

CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) (APR)

Medium

01:30

AUD Part Time Employment Change (APR)

Low

01:30

AUD Participation Rate (APR)

Low

02:00

JPY Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (APR)

Low

05:00

JPY Leading Index (MAR P)

05:00

01:30 LIVE

01:30 LIVE

-7.4K

-2.3%

-1.9%

-28.7K

65.1%

65.1%

8.56%

Medium

97.7

97.6

JPY Coincident Index (MAR P)

Low

93.2

92.4

08:00

EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report

High

08:30

GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

-1.6%

-2.2%

08:30

GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

-2.0%

-1.4%

08:30

GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.2%

1.0%

08:30

GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.3%

0.8%

11:00

GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (MAY)

High

375B

375B

11:00

GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (MAY 9)

High

0.50%

0.50%

12:00

USD Fed's Lacker Speaks on Financial Stability in New York

Low

12:30

CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

2.1%

2.1%

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 4)

Medium

335K

324K

12:30

CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.1%

0.2%

12:30

USD Continuing Claims (APR 27)

Low

3018K

3019K


14:00

GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (APR)

High

14:00

USD Wholesale Inventories (MAR)

Medium

0.4%

-0.3%

14:00

USD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.1%

1.7%

14:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAY 3)

Low

17:15

USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Monetary Policy in New York

Low

22:45

NZD NZ Card Spending - Retail (MoM) (APR)

Medium

22:45

NZD NZ Card Spending (MoM) (APR)

Medium

23:50

JPY Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (APR)

Medium

23:50

JPY Trade Balance BOP Basis (Yen) (MAR)

Medium

-¥274.0B

-¥677.0B

23:50

JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (MAR)

Low

¥480.4B

-¥0.1B

23:50

JPY Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (APR)

Low

23:50

JPY Current Account Balance (YoY) (MAR)

Low

-5.7%

-47.0%

23:50

JPY Current Account Total (Yen) (MAR)

Low

¥1216.3B

¥637.4B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAY 3)

Low

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAY 3)

Low

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAY 3)

Low

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAY 3)

Low

GBP G7 Finance Ministers, Central Bank Chiefs, Meet in UK

High

04:00

CNY New Yuan Loans (APR)

High

767.5B

1060.0B

04:00

CNY Aggregate Financing (APR)

Low

1480.0B

2544.3B

04:00

CNY Money Supply M0 (YoY) (APR)

Low

12.0%

12.4%

04:00

CNY Money Supply M1 (YoY) (APR)

Low

11.3%

11.9%

Fri May 10

0.10%

43

0.5%

-0.5%

-1.2%

1.9%


04:00

CNY Money Supply M2 (YoY) (APR)

04:30

JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (APR)

Medium

-20.0%

05:00

JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (APR)

Medium

57.5

05:00

JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (APR)

Low

57.3

06:00

EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (MAR)

Medium

17.5B

16.8B

06:00

EUR German Current Account (euros) (MAR)

Low

19.5B

16.0B

06:00

EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.5%

-1.5%

06:00

EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

Low

1.5%

-3.9%

08:30

GBP Construction Output (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

-6.6%

-7.0%

08:30

GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (MAR)

Medium

-£9000

-£9416

08:30

GBP Construction Output (MoM) (MAR)

Low

15.0%

5.5%

08:30

GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (MAR)

Low

-£3100

-£3642

08:30

GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (MAR)

Low

-£4000

-£4276

12:25

USD Fed's Evans Speaks at Chicago Fed Conference

Low

12:30

CAD Net Change in Employment (APR)

High

15.0K

-54.5K

CAD Unemployment Rate (APR)

High

7.20%

7.20%

LIVE

12:30 LIVE

Low

15.5%

15.7%

12:30

Full Time Employment Change (APR)

Medium

-54.0K

12:30

Part Time Employment Change (APR)

Low

-0.4K

12:30

Participation Rate (APR)

Low

13:30

Fed's Bernanke Speaks at Chicago Fed Conference

Medium

18:00

USD Monthly Budget Statement (APR)

Medium

18:00

Fed's George Speaks on the Economy in Wyoming

Low

66.7

$106.0B

66.6


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daily-i-forex-report-1 by epic research 08 May 2013  

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